THE POLITICS OF PRECOMMITMENT WITH ELECTORAL UNCERTAINTY AND TRANSACTION COSTS

Despite the lack of legal channels through which binding commitments can be made by the government, economic and political factors enable it to affect future outcomes. In practice, large transaction costs are associated with any significant change of policy, and therefore the current government can adopt policies so that certain outcomes are more likely to be realized by its successor. In this paper it is argued that transaction costs combined with electoral uncertainty are likely to drive the current government to adopt a policy which is extreme relative to the preferences of the existing political parties. This policy is adopted in order to ensure that due to transaction costs, the future government will not depart radically from the most preferred policy of the current government. If the current policy is likely to affect the election outcome, then, in addition to the above considerations, the electorate attitudes would have to be taken into account by the government. Hence, the current government confronts two factors in choosing its policies: the behavior of the future government and the behavior of the electorate. The interplay between the two factors determines the choice of the current policy.     

Population Aging,Health Care,and Fiscal Policy Reform: The Challenges for Japan

We construct a transition analysis based on a general equilibrium life‐cycle model to investigate the effects of aging, and we evaluate various policy alternatives designed to lessen the negative influence of aging. In particular, we analyze reforms of insurance benefits and tax financing tools that were recently the focus of a great amount of attention and debate in Japan because of the tense financial situation there. We show that although the potential reforms improve the welfare of future generations, the political implementation of such reforms is difficult because of the large welfare costs for the current population. Our analysis suggests that a gradual reform with an intergenerational redistribution will be more politically implementable than an immediate reform.     

FERTILITY RISK IN THE LIFE CYCLE

In this article, I study fertility decisions with special emphasis on the timing of births and abortions over the life cycle. Given the policy debate regarding abortion availability and recent evidence of its positive impact on women's outcomes, understanding the fertility process should help guide the discussion. Here, I present a life‐cycle model of consumption–savings and fertility decisions in an environment with uninsurable income shocks and imperfect fertility control. My model presents a framework in which both opportunity costs of child rearing and technological restrictions (in the form of contraception effectiveness) have roles shaping lifetime fertility choices.     

Perspectives on Australian Retirement Incomes

With important developments over the past two decades in Australian retirement income policy, projected future outcomes—for the public purse, for the national economy and for the future retired—have received considerable attention. This focus on the future should not, however, cause us to lose sight of the present. While the major changes in retirement income policy outcomes will not occur for some decades, the picture for current and recent cohorts of retired people is not static. This article begins with an account of the important policy developments since the 1980s in the Australian retirement income arena—the Australian retirement income system still differs radically from that in most other countries, in relying heavily on a means‐tested income maintenance system, rather than on social insurance. The outcomes for current and recent cohorts of retired people are then examined from two perspectives. The first perspective is an examination of the incomes of the aged in the mid 1990s and of trends over the 1980s and 1990s—including consideration of changes in the level, composition and distribution of aged incomes. The second perspective is an international comparison of the incomes of the aged.     

DOES THE KYOTO PROTOCOL COST TOO MUCH AND CREATE UNBREAKABLE BARRIERS FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH?

We look to the literature on short-term cost models, long-term models based on endogenous growth, and long-term models that assume induced technical change, in order to demonstrate the current understanding of costs, which is the focus of the debate on abating climate change. Using these insights as well as other results—like the role of ancillary benefits and the lack of a relationship between decarbonization and economic growth—our contribution to this debate will be to help policy makers understand how economic analyses are conducted and how they should be used in the subsequent political discussions. (JEL Q52, Q54, Q58 )     

How individuals choose health insurance: An experimental analysis

An individual choosing a health insurance policy faces a complex decision environment where a large set of alternatives differ on a variety of dimensions. There is uncertainty and the choice is repeated at least once a year. We study decisions and decision strategies in a laboratory experiment where we create a controlled environment that closely mirrors this setting. We use an electronic information board that allows to carefully monitor the individual's decision strategy. The number of alternatives, switching costs, and the speed at which health deteriorates are varied across treatments. We find that most subjects' search is based more on attributes than on policies. Moreover, we find that an increase in the number of alternatives increases decision-making time; makes subjects consider a lower fraction of the available information; makes it more likely that subjects will switch; and decreases the quality of their decisions. The introduction of positive costs of switching makes people switch less often but improves the quality of their decisions. Finally, if health deteriorates only gradually, individuals tend to stick to their current policy too long.     

US Policy on Dollarisation: A Political Analysis

Dollarisation has become a topic of intense debate throughout Latin America, raising the prospect of a vast new currency bloc in the western hemisphere - a potentially pivotal geopolitical event. What policy responses can be expected from the United States? An assessment of potential benefits and costs, both economic and political, suggests that there is no clear presumption regarding US interest, leaving wide latitude for policy discretion. Little change of Washington's current policy of passive neutrality can be expected in the foreseeable future. The only exception would be the possibility of a serious challenge to the dollar's global pre-eminence by Europe's new euro, which could trigger a competitive response from Washington.     

Energy in America's future

Energy in America's Future, the book reported on in this article, assembled facts and performed analyses required for making informed energy choices. It reached broad conclusions on supply and demand prospects and on the environmental and other social aspects of policy choices. Although near-term constraints are severely binding, the nation's natural resource position is favorable for long-run supply expansion. Future technologies are also promising in cost terms. Although costs are bound to rise, a ceiling on long-run supply costs looks to be possible at real levels surprisingly close to current prices. Energy consumption in relationship to overall national output (GNP) will be growing at a slower rate than in recent decades. Consumers will use relatively less energy as a result of higher energy prices, conservation incentives, and new energy-using technology. Even so, overall energy use will grow. Major energy demand policy issues concern not just the likely rate of growth of consumption, but also the possible problems connected with optimizing energy efficiency at the expense of economic efficiency (i.e., output in relation to all inputs, particularly those of labor and capital). Environmental impacts and concerns about questions of human health and safety will continue to affect public acceptance of particular energy technologies. The public will need to be adequately informed on the comparative risks of energy supply technologies, and the technical and institutional means available for reducing these risks. The price system must be permitted to function to the maximum feasible extent. In addition, the task for political leadership is to forge a public consensus in support of achievable energy goals. This has been difficult because of conflicting public perceptions of the facts and clashes in social values among different groups. The future prospects for achieving a national energy consensus should be enhanced by the outlook for slower energy demand growth and favorable supply prospects along with potential improvements in the environmental side effects associated with new and improved supply technologies. As knowledge of these changing circumstances becomes more broadly disseminated, the ability to achieve broad public support of energy goals should grow stronger.     

Health subsidies,prevention and welfare

People value healthy ageing but may underinvest in health-improving preventive care. This arises when they ignore the beneficial effects of healthy ageing on public health expenditures and hence on the tax burden of future generations. This health externality justifies public intervention. We build an overlapping generations model with a government subsidizing investment in health by the young generation and paying the health care costs of the old generation. We find that the welfare-maximizing subsidy rate depends positively on the health externality and the size of health care costs, and negatively on the discount factor. The subsidy rate should therefore be high when prevention is cost-effective and when the population is careless about the future. Moreover, the welfare-maximizing subsidy rate is lower than the health-maximizing rate but higher than the capital-maximizing rate. This underlines the trade-off for a policy maker between health and economy.     

FORECASTING THE DEMAND FOR HEALTH CARE IN OECD NATIONS AND CHINA

This article argues that the nations of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) are facing a potential disaster: intergenerational conflicts between the large number of workers approaching retirement at an earlier age than ever before in history and the smaller number entering the labor market. These nations are confronted with the choice of whether to default on commitments to pensions and health care, to reduce benefits, or to increase the taxes borne by younger workers. The author argues that this new intergenerational conflict is the result of technophysio evolution , a synergism between technological and physiological improvements that has produced a form of human evolution that is biological but not genetic, rapid, culturally transmitted, and not necessarily stable. The author goes on to argue that an important aspect of technophysio evolution has been a change in the structure of consumption and in the division of discretionary time between work and leisure. The ongoing debate over whether or not the rapid advances in biotechnology will spare OECD nations' health systems from a financial crisis is addressed. Finally, the implications this argument has for forecasting China's future health care costs are discussed.     

Assessing the Legitimacy of Stem Cell Research: An Instrumental Valuation Principle Approach

Research on embryonic stem cells has elicited much public and political debate. By promoting the use of the Instrumental Valuation Principle, it is argued here that institutionalists can offer a framework for policy analysis that ensures that the debate on stem cell research is informed by the instrumental use of knowledge and that it is not controlled by upper-level hegemonic powers. Our contention is that the first decade following the initial harvesting of human embryonic stem cells (1998-2008) in the United States was characterized by institutional and policy responses that created a non-deliberative environment that hindered the process of instrumental valuation of stem cell research. This paper concludes that the current conditions of limited corporate involvement are favorable toward a democratic discussion of the legitimacy of stem cell research, but this will require overt challenges to political elites' attempts to control the creation and flow of instrumental knowledge on stem cell research.     

Transaction costs and environmental policy design

This article synthesizes the growing empirical literature on transaction costs to identify pragmatic design recommendations for environmental and natural resource policies. The New Institutional Economics literature recognizes that appropriate policy choice and design will be a function of the specific characteristics of the problem. The physical and institutional determinants of both transaction costs and abatement costs should be considered in the policy design process due to potential interactions between them. Analysts also need to incorporate the extent to which the technologies, institutional environment, governance structures, or policy designs can be changed; some factors can only be adjusted to or “designed around” while others can be designed differently. This framework highlights the importance of property rights since transaction costs will be incurred to obtain or retain property rights and since the rights assignment may affect both the magnitudes and distribution of costs. Another implication is that education and extension programs or use of behavioral economics concepts to affect choices can be cost-effective in some circumstances. Policy design should take advantage of economies of scale and foster technical change. Appropriate sequencing of policy instruments may decrease transaction costs, particularly if there is potential for technical change.     

The determinants of access to health care and medicines in India

This article explores the issue of demand for health care and medicines in India where household share of total health expenditure is one of the highest among high- and low-income countries. Previous work found that important determinants include health status, socio-demographics, income and demand for care was inelastic. Compared with previous studies, this article uses large household data sets including data on medicine expenditure to explore health-seeking behaviour. Count models find that determinants include health status, socio-demographic information, health insurance, household expenditure and government regulation. Elasticities range from ?0.13 to 0.03 and are generally consistent with literature findings. For inpatient care, conditional on having at least one hospitalization, the expected number of hospitalizations increases with being male and household expenditure. Medicine expenditure accounts for a large share of household health expenditure. Low-income individuals could experience problems and raises important policy implications on the demand and supply side to improve access to health care and medicines for patients in India.     

Irreversibilities and the timing of environmental policy

The standard framework in which economists evaluate environmental policies is cost–benefit analysis, so policy debates usually focus on the expected flows of costs and benefits, or on the choice of discount rate. But this can be misleading when there is uncertainty over future outcomes, when there are irreversibilities, and when policy adoption can be delayed. This paper shows how two kinds of uncertainty — over the future costs and benefits of reduced environmental degradation, and over the evolution of an ecosystem — interact with two kinds of irreversibilities — sunk costs associated with an environmental regulation, and sunk benefits of avoided environmental degradation — to affect optimal policy timing and design.     

Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand

As the population ages there will be potentially significant implications for a wide range of economic variables, including in particular the fiscal costs of social expenditures. Long‐term fiscal planning requires estimates of the possible future path of public spending. This article presents projections for 14 categories of social spending. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of gross domestic product using simulation. Attention is focused on health expenditures which are disaggregated into seven broad classes. In addition, we explore the impacts of alternative hypotheses about future health costs. While it can be predicted with some confidence that overall social expenditures will rise, the results suggest that long‐term planning would be enriched by recognising the distributions around point estimates of projected social costs.     

Why Do Policy Makers Give (Permanent) Power to Policy Advisers?

Using a simple game-theoretical model, this paper analyzes the role of policy advisers in the policy-making process. We show that policy makers are inclined to appoint advisers whose preferences coincide with their own preferences. Furthermore, we show that policy makers are biased towards erecting permanent advisory units. This result stems from the policy makers' desire to affect the actions of their successors. A permanent advisory unit induces future policy makers to act in accordance with the preferences of current policy makers. The policy-makers' bias towards erecting permanent advisory units may drive a wedge between actual policy outcomes and socially desired policy outcomes.     

Conceptual frameworks used in funded nursing health services research projects

Theories not only suggest ideas for research, but they provide order and logic to an investigation and limit the number and type of variables to be considered to a reasonable few. Although relatively little health services research is done within nursing, there is a growing appreciation of the need for knowledge related to the use, costs, quality, delivery, organization, financing, and outcomes of health care and how nursing practice influences these variables. Conceptual frameworks used by investigators in funded grants from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality show that workforce-related health services research of nursing phenomena is based on a wide variety of conceptual models, many of the investigator's own invention. Ultimately, there may emerge new theories or conceptual frameworks that combine clinical, organizational, financial, and outcome variables from the unique perspective of nursing. Such conceptualizations will guide future researchers and add coherence to the body of health services research into nursing issues.     

A Simple Exposition of the Social Security Trust Fund

Health insurance policy is a current topic of concern for the United States. The classroom game discussed here provides students with a thorough understanding of some of the policy options under debate, in addition to demonstrating the classic problem of adverse selection. Students received probabilities of encountering a variety of medical expenses, based on their randomly assigned fictitious person’s age and health status. In each round, students made insurance decisions and then rolled dice to determine outcomes for each possible medical expense. The experiment considered insurance with an individual mandate, insurance without an individual mandate, insurance where students could purchase à la carte coverage mimicking proposed insurance riders for certain coverage, and insurance where pre-existing conditions were not covered.     

投资选择的交易成本——一个从宏观调控层面的分析

本文基于现有的关于交易成本的研究通常集中在以产权为核心的交换过程 ,而对宏观调控层面可能会引起交易成本的分析没有受到应有关注的事实 ,认为新制度分析包含着政策层面上的交易成本思想 ,政府的宏观调控会导致投资选择的交易成本。文章根据投资者在投资选择过程中是否承担以及在多大程度上承担由政策引致的交易成本 ,将投资者在某时期的最终定位划分为三大集群 ,在给出相应的基本平衡式的基础上 ,运用交易成本范畴对投资者的投资选择作出了一种间接博弈的解释。本文的分析在一定程度上说明了现实投资容易偏离宏观调控的原因。