Welfare Implications of Currency Integration: Labor Mobility and Pricing-to-Market

In this paper, we examine the welfare cost of renouncing monetary policy autonomy in a model that includes labor mobility and pricing-to-market (PTM) behavior in firms. We find that renouncing monetary policy autonomy becomes a cost of currency integration when the consumption basket weights differ between candidate countries and when country-specific total factor productivity (TFP) shocks hit economies, even when the union fulfills the classic optimum currency area theory of labor mobility. We also found that a firm's PTM behavior has a significant effect on the welfare implications of currency integration combined with labor mobility. For instance, currency integration does not produce greater welfare losses in the PTM case (where the labor input weights differ across member countries and asymmetric labor disutility shocks occur), although greater welfare losses arise in the case of producer currency pricing.     

The interrelation of job vacancies and workforce in Russia: Gender-specific features

The article is devoted to the joint dynamics of male and female labor and vacancies in Russia. A model of population and labor mobility is proposed, which takes account of gender differences in labor. The dynamics of the model coefficients is analyzed and the efficiency of adjustment current labor demand and supply is retrospectively estimated by decomposing the impact of individual factors on general change in the indicators under analysis. The model coefficients are evaluated for the future, and the dynamics of change in major parameters of the labor market, including gender characteristics, is forecasted.     

Imperfect Labor Mobility and Unemployment in LDCs: Reply

In a recent paper (Parai and Beladi 1997; PB hereafter), we have analyzed the implications of growth and trade policies for a small open economy facing imperfect labor mobility and unemployment of the Harris-Todaro variety. We have used the Casas (1984) specification of the labor immobility phenomenon for a Harris-Todaro type economy, and have shown that most of the results in Harris-Todaro framework remain unaltered even under imperfect labor mobility, provided that the elasticity of labor mobility parameter exceeds a critical minimum value. On the optimal tariff issue, Gilbert and Mikic (1997; GM hereafter) find our results counterconventional. In GM's view, the nonconventional result in PB is due to our simplification of the labor mobility specification given by Casas. In this note, we offer our response to GM's comments.     

劳动力流动对产业集聚和扩散影响的研究综述

劳动力流动与产业集聚和扩散存在密切的相互影响关系,尤其是自新经济地理学将产业空间分布纳入主流经济分析框架开始,劳动力流动对产业集聚和分散的研究逐渐朝着更加接近现实经济的方向发展。在回顾相关理论背景和模型的基础上,对劳动力流动、产业集聚和扩散之间相互影响的理论和经验研究进行系统梳理,并对文献进行简要评论。     

众里寻他!?——一个基于婚姻匹配理论的综述

家庭作为社会经济生活的最小单位,继Becker的开创性研究之后,成为经济学研究的新领域。对于婚姻的研究不仅涉及到微观个体的选择及福祉,而且也通过影响人力资本积累、收入分配等影响社会不平等。通过梳理婚姻的匹配模型、婚姻的形成方式、婚姻带来的转移支付以及婚姻的解体,文章对相关研究进行了综述。并立足于我国婚姻是两个家庭之间的联姻这种特有现象,结合我国目前劳动力流动和城市化带来的经济发展背景下,由于户籍导致的城乡分割引致的特有的婚姻匹配模式,对于未来的研究进行了展望。     

Capital mobility and labor market volatility

We used a dynamic two-country optimizing model featuring efficiency wages to analyze the implications of capital mobility for labor market volatility. Capital mobility magnifies the short-run effects of productivity shocks and monetary shocks on employment and the real wage, but dampens the medium-run effects. The overall effects of capital mobility on the volatility and the cyclical properties of employment and the real wage are moderate.     

经理人市场对高管薪酬的影响—来自高管跳槽现象的证据

基于2007－2014年A股上市公司数据，从高管跳槽现象的视角，对经理人市场如何影响高管薪酬进行探究。研究发现，公司在发生高管跳槽之后会显著提高现任高管的薪酬，尤其是基于股权的薪酬。现任高管的薪酬提升幅度与其在经理人市场上的流动性有关，也与跳槽高管的特征（对原公司的重要性、新工作的吸引力）有关。同时，通过引入倾向得分匹配（ PSM）模型，发现发生高管跳槽的公司在事前有显著的薪酬劣势，而事后的加薪使这些公司显著的薪酬劣势消失。另外，加薪措施能够有效地防止现任高管的跳槽。研究结果说明，经理人市场中的高管跳槽行为是公司薪酬政策的重要决定因素之一。     

A labor force competition model of racial discrimination in the labor market

Conclusion This paper has developed a model of discrimination based on the standard maximization hypotheses. This model assumes an imperfectly competitive labor market. In particular, net differences in the benefits of jobs are not competed away, and labor market coalitions of workers exist. As we have indicated, the model is able to explain the major phenomena associated with labor market discrimination.     

A machine learning approach to improving occupational income scores

Historical studies of labor markets frequently lack data on individual income. The occupational income score (OCCSCORE) is often used as an alternative measure of labor market outcomes. We consider the consequences of using OCCSCORE when researchers are interested in earnings regressions. We estimate race and gender earnings gaps in modern decennial Censuses as well as the 1915 Iowa State Census. Using OCCSCORE biases results towards zero and can result in estimated gaps of the wrong sign. We use a machine learning approach to construct a new adjusted score based on industry, occupation, and demographics. The new income score provides estimates closer to earnings regressions. Lastly, we consider the consequences for estimates of intergenerational mobility elasticities.     

Labor market developments in China: A neoclassical view

This paper assesses the applicability of two alternative theories in understanding labor market developments in China: the classical view featuring a Lewis turning point in wage growth versus a neoclassical framework emphasizing rational choices of individuals and equilibrating forces of the market. Empirical evidence based on multiple data sources fails to validate the arrival of the Lewis turning point in China, showing continuous and coordinated wage growth across rural and urban sectors instead. Consistent with the neoclassical view, we find that rural workers expanded off-farm work when mobility restrictions were lifted, interprovincial migration responded to expected earnings and local employment conditions, and returns to education converged gradually to the international standard. These findings suggest major progresses in the integration of labor markets in China.     

Labor mobility and technology diffusion: A new concept and its application to rural Southeast Asia

We develop a new concept of rural technology diffusion influenced by labor mobility and business relations. The technology gain effect of labor mobility increases technology diffusion, whereas the technology drain effect decreases it. The concept is applied to survey data from the Mekong region, a new geographic area in this context. In the econometric analysis, which takes spatial correlation and geographic variables into account, technology is measured in the form of the number of mobile phones per village. The results support the technology gain and drain effects and show that labor mobility and business relations can help overcome geographic obstacles to rural development.     

Imperfect Intersectoral Labor Mobility and Monetary Shocks in a Small Open Economy

In this paper, we model the assumption of imperfect labor mobility across sectors in the New Open-Economy Macroeconomics framework to assess its impact on output, inflation, and welfare. Following a permanent home monetary expansion in a small open economy, we find that the above-mentioned assumption leads to: (i) less expansionary effects on (traded) output in the short term, although also less contractionary in the long term; (ii) lower short-term inflation but higher in the long term; and (iii) less intertemporal welfare, with even a ??beggar thyself?? problem being possible.     

农村居民多维收入流动、税费负担及政策效应——基于面板数据PSM-DID方法的研究

收入流动性是从动态视角衡量居民收入分配公平与否的重要指标,其变动程度受到税收等因素的影响。文章基于2001年至2014年季度和年度面板数据,依据多维收入流动指标,测算出了地区之间农村居民绝对和相对收入流动程度,并利用双重差分倾向得分匹配法（PSM-DID）和工具变量估计法研究了农村税费改革及其他经济社会因素对农村居民收入流动性的影响。研究发现：（1）农村税费改革的政策效应非常显著,实施农业税费减免政策的地区,其农民的绝对收入流动性显著高于未改革地区;（2）税费负担对绝对收入流动性的影响呈现出"倒U型"特征,即当税费负担率为0.167%时,绝对收入流动性达到最大值,若进一步增加税费负担,收入流动性则呈现下降趋势;（3）税费支出变动对相对收入流动性的影响也通过了5%的显著性检验;（4）农村劳动力文化结构、工资收入比重等家庭特征因素对收入流动性的影响具有较大的地区异质性。有鉴于此,在进一步完善税费征收项目监管的同时,依据家庭及地区特征实施差异化的支农惠农政策,切实减轻农民负担,增强农村居民收入流动,实现地区间收入分配均衡。     

Land Endowment,Intersectoral Labor Mobility,and Economic Geography

The distribution of industries is studied in a general equilibrium model in which firms producing manufactured products engage in oligopolistic competition. The agricultural product is produced by land and labor and there is intersectoral labor mobility between the agricultural sector and the manufacturing sector. Results are derived analytically. When worker units are divisible, concentration of all workers in one region is not stable. The role of land in the production of the agricultural product is important in affecting the distribution of industries.     

“未富先老”与劳动力短缺

计划生育政策的成功执行和社会经济的快速发展,中国在经济发展尚处较低水平的情况下,实现了人口转变过程,过早地迎来了人口老龄化,劳动力供给出现短缺的端倪。“先老”导致的劳动力供给下降与“未富”带来的大量劳动力需求,将可能形成比较优势的真空。这种趋势对现有的经济增长方式以及相应的就业和社会保障政策提出严峻挑战。为应对劳动力短缺的局面,保持中国经济发展的可持续性,应未雨绸缪,包括最大化开发人口红利、加大人力资本积累力度、选择可持续的养老保障模式,清除劳动力流动障碍、转变经济增长方式等。     

人口流动管制与中国宏观经济波动——基于异质性技能视角分析

人口流动是我国经济的热点问题之一，那么人口流动管制对我国宏观经济波动有什么样的影响?文章在标准RBC一般均衡模型中引入了异质性高低技能劳动，考察了人口流动管制对宏观经济波动的影响。研究发现：（1）劳动人口流动管制对总产出和总消费都有负向影响，会增加低技能工资，降低高技能工资；（2）资本质量冲击、政府购买冲击不仅会使消费和工资水平下降，同时也会造成福利下降，其中单位政府购买冲击会使居民福利下降最大，低技能总福利损失大于高技能总福利损失；（3）通过方差分解发现人口流动冲击能解释产出波动的7.83%和投资波动的5.60%，同时还发现随着经济中高技能比重加大，单位人口流动负冲击对社会福利损失越大。文章基于人口流动管制异质性视角研究得出流动人口管制不利于经济增长和社会总福利，为我国流动人口研究提供了新的研究视角。     

China''s land arrangements and rural labor mobility

Chinese farm families under the Household Responsibility System have the land use-rights but not the rights of alienation. If permanently leaving agriculture, they have to return the land to local authorities and consequently give up a stream of future land earnings. This paper analyzes the deterrent effect of this land arrangement on labor mobility by constructing a household model which considers both part-time farming and permanent migration decisions. The implications of the model are consistent with the recent Chinese experience of rural floating population in cities and the rapid growth of rural nonagricultural employment.     

公共服务、劳动力流动与产业集聚——兼论片面城市化政策对产业集聚的影响

文章从劳动力流动的角度分析了城市公共服务供给水平对产业集聚的影响,认为我国各级地方政府所实施的片面城市化政策导致政府对公共卫生、义务教育和社会保障等基本公共服务供给不足。流动人口难以享受到与户籍人口同等的基本公共服务,提高了劳动力区际流动的隐性成本,降低了劳动力的区际流动性,阻碍了我国产业在空间上的高效集聚。因此,为提高我国产业的地理集聚水平和经济资源的空间配置效率,有必要着力推动以流动人口市民化为核心的城市化进程。     

Identification of Job Lock and Inefficient Labor Market Mobility

The common practice of linking employment with certain fringe benefits, notably health insurance, has long been thought to impede labor market mobility, thereby producing a phenomenon called job lock. A sizable literature has developed theoretical frameworks for how job lock impacts the labor market and empirically estimated the magnitudes of these effects. However, most empirical studies rely on identification strategies that do not separately identify productivity enhancing from productivity reducing labor market mobility. This article develops a simple theoretical framework showing how prior identification strategies confound both types of mobility and outlines conditions where productivity reducing mobility is of greatest concern.     

On Government Behavior and Rural Labor Mobility：The Case of Pengyang County in China

The relationship between government and market is one of the leading issues in modem economics. The author presents a case study of rural labor mobility in Pengyang, located in the mountainous south of the Ningxia Autonomous Region. He finds that the local government has incentives to minimize labor mobility costs when faced with a weak labor market. By organizing governmental intermediaries in the labor market, the local government can increase both rural labor incomes and long-term employment probabilities.