经济动向与经济政策

7月19日,温家宝主持应对气候变化及节能减排领导小组会议 7月19日上午,国务院总理、国家应对气候变化及节能减排工作领导小组组长温家宝主持召开国家应对气候变化及节能减排工作领导小组会议,审议并原则同意“十二五”节能减排综合性工作方案,以及节能目标分解方案、主要污染物排放总量控制计划,研究部署相关工作。     

经济动向与经济政策(2011年7月18日——2011年8月17日)

<正>7月19日:温家宝主持应对气候变化及节能减排领导小组会议7月19日上午,国务院总理、国家应对气候变化及节能减排工作领导小组组长温家宝主持召开国家应对气候变化及节能减排工作领导小组会议,审议并原则同意"十二五"节能减排综合性工作方案,以及节能目标分解方案、主要污染物排放总量控制计划,研究部署相关工作。     

发挥政策性金融在发展低碳农业中的引导和支持作用

低碳经济是人类为了应对能源危机和气候变暖而产生的一种新的经济形态。当前,应对气候变化、减少碳排放已经成为世界各国的发展战略和共同行动。在哥本哈根应对气候变化大会之前,我国就已经提出了具有国内法约束力的减排目标,而国家"十二五"规划中也明确了"十二五"期间将减排17%的目标。可见,我国发展"低碳经济"已经进入规划和实施期。作为低碳经济的重要组成部分,低碳农业在未来具有相当大的发展潜力。因此,充分认识低碳农业对我国发展"低碳     

气候变化对粮食产量影响的研究方法综述

[目的]受气候变化的影响,全球粮食安全面临严峻挑战,及时准确地评估气候变化对粮食产量的影响是应对挑战、制定农业适应性对策的关键。相关研究已产生了不少方法,通过综述对方法进行分类,明晰各种方法的优缺点和适用性,以期扬长避短,促进研究方法的综合、发展与完善。[方法]利用文献法、归纳法和比较法,从方法的原理和应用、存在的问题、发展的趋势3个方面进行探讨。[结果]产量分解法可用于分析粮食产量及其构成要素与不同生育期气候变化的关系,实验比较法一般用于粮食产量对单个气候因子或若干气候因子变化的敏感性分析,生产函数法适用于在农业生产系统中分析气候变化对粮食产量影响的边际效应,气候生产潜力模型法侧重于农业生产环境发展评估,作物生长模型法便于结合气候情景预测未来气候变化对粮食产量的影响。在不同研究方向上得以运用的同时,各方法也暴露了一些问题:产量分解法的技术产量难以拟合,实验比较法的数据获取难、模型稳定性较差,生产函数法容易遗漏重要变量、函数构造困难,气候生产潜力模型法的结论难以验证,作物生长模型法参数标定难、模型应用存在尺度错位。[结论]研究方法将逐渐形成一套综合的气候—水文—作物—经济模型法,多源数据融合和多目标模式已经成为方法发展的驱动力。     

论我国推进低碳经济发展的法治路径

我国兑现哥本哈根会议上的节能减排承诺,大力推进低碳经济发展,应积极完善相关法治措施,重点是坚持依法加强对宏观经济的调控与规范,推进法制建设与适应气候变化相适应,推进法治与低碳经济发展相适应,依法掌控和规范碳金融的主动权,规范低碳绿色的生产方式和生活模式,统筹协调节能减排战略实施的执法资源,健全统一执法体系,建立完备的节能减排执法监督体系及法治保障机制。     

农业适应气候变化措施绩效评价——基于苏北GEF项目区300户农户的调查

本文基于对江苏省GEF项目区的调研,采用倍差法(D ifference inD ifference)对农业适应气候变化措施的绩效进行分析和评估。研究表明,GEF项目中农业适应气候变化措施的绩效集中体现在粮食产量上,适应性措施的实施显著地提高了项目区粮食单产水平,尤其是水稻的单产水平;适应性措施对水稻单产的净效应为42.41公斤/亩,对小麦单产的净效应为5.96公斤/亩。GEF项目的适应性措施体系可以为全国未来适应气候变化农业综合开发项目提供参考。     

气候大会碳排放谈判的博弈分析

联合国气候变化大会是目前全球范围内最为重要的气候环境会议之一,其关注的重点是参与国的碳排放谈判和碳限制。基于博弈的思想,构建出一个气候大会碳排放谈判的博弈模型。并基于该模型,采用中国的相关数据来解释目前的谈判现状。结果发现,这一模型符合IPCC对发展中国家的要求。其次根据对比结果可知,中国目前在碳排放博弈中尚未完全掌握主导权。建议中国在全球碳排放谈判中要坚持以单位GDP碳排放作为减排指标,同时动态调整减排目标和路径。     

近30年黑龙江省水田规模与分布变化及其对气候变化的响应

研究目的:分析黑龙江省的水田规模与分布变化,探讨气候变化对水田的影响,预测未来水田变化趋势。研究方法:文献资料法和常规数理统计方法。研究结果:近30年黑龙江省水田面积大量增加,占耕地比重逐步提高;各县市水田规模、增量和增幅差别较大,以中部地带增加最为明显,水田分布范围向东向北扩张;气温升高和热量条件改善是水田分布范围扩大的重要原因,气象灾害导致水田面积和水稻产量波动;未来水田面积将持续增加,但趋势将减缓。研究结论:黑龙江省水田规模与分布的变化与气候变化密切相关。     

关于农业应对气候变化的适应能力建设问题

近年来,气候变化对农业的负面影响愈演愈烈,加强农业适应与应对气候变化能力建设已迫在眉睫。本文从经济与社会发展趋势,农业产业的特性以及防灾减灾的基本规律与要求等考虑,研究探讨了以推进经济发展为基础,建立健全组织机构,政策法规,基础设施建设,科研与推广,公众参与,城镇化与农业现代化,建立健全防灾减灾预警系统等8个方面的未来适应能力建设问题。     

气候变化对农业生产和农村发展的影响与对策

全球气候正经历着一场以变暖为主要特征的显著变化.全球气候变暖对陆地生态系统、粮食生产与安全、社会经济发展等产生了重大影响,因此也成为国际社会广泛关注的科学热点之一.中国是发展中大国,农业资源相对短缺,生态环境相对脆弱,特别是欠发达地区对气候变化的反应尤为敏感.对气候变化情景预估表明,未来气候变化对农业与农村的可持续发展构成严重制约.本文针对气候变化的特点和趋势,讨论了气候变化对粮食生产和农村发展的正负效应及可能影响,强调了应对气候变化的紧迫性和重要性,提出了坚持科学发展观和科教创新、加大资金投入、提高公众参与意识和能力建设等应对气候变化的策略和措施.     

聚焦哥本哈根气候变化峰会:回顾与前瞻

联合国气候变化会议于2009年12月7-19日在哥本哈根召开,受到了国际社会前所未有的关注。回顾了哥本哈根气候变化峰会的背景,指出了谈判中的各种利益集团及其争夺的焦点,阐述了哥本哈根峰会的最终结果,分析了目前国际气候变化谈判的主要进展,并就未来进行了展望。     

One Man's Meat … 2050? Ruminations on Future Meat Demand in the Context of Global Warming

This Address considers a range of issues relating to the contribution of meat consumption and livestock production to global warming, given the need highlighted by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) to reduce global GHG emissions by over 50% by 2050. The IPCC Climate Change 2014 report recognised that demand oriented measures may also contribute to GHG mitigation. The paper reviews a number of studies which examine demand‐led mitigation potentials, and concludes that such estimates ignore the market effects of changes in meat consumption habits or demand oriented policies. A simple partial equilibrium model of beef, poultry, pig and ovine meats is developed for the major regions of the world to explore the impact of a range of scenarios which might reduce meat consumption and GHG emissions. These include emissions taxation, long‐term trends in reduction of red meat consumption in developed economy regions, and supply side improvements in livestock emissions intensities. The paper discusses problems associated with many published demand elasticities suitable for incorporation into a market model, problems of selection from widely varying published estimates and their appropriateness for longer‐run projections. The dearth of published supply elasticity estimates is also highlighted. The modelling concludes that economic and population growth to 2050 without any mitigation measures will lead to a 21% increase in per capita meat consumption and a 63% increase in total consumption and GHG emissions by 2050. However, the mitigation projections from the scenarios explored only generate a 14% reduction in cumulative emissions from the baseline 2050 projections, insufficient to meet the CCC target.     

专项用地统计调查研究

专项用地统计调查是第二次土地调查的重要组成部分,然而,专项用地和《土地利用现状分类》中的地类并不是一一对应的,也不是简单的包含关系,各专项用地内容之间也有重复和交叉。本文从分析专项用地概念入手,结合土地调查工作实际,就如何开展专项用地统计调查提出了一些建议。     

The climate change negotiations: the case for differentiation

The major elements of the climate change negotiations since the negotiation in 1995 of the Berlin Mandate to the Framework Convention on Climate Change are outlined and background on the greenhouse effect is provided in this article. It is shown that the same uniform emission reduction target for all countries is inefficient and that such targets would not lead to an equal sharing of the economic burden of achieving a given commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is concluded that the negotiation of differentiated targets can help to solve this problem.     

The evaluation of forest crop damages due to climate change. An application of Dempster–Shafer method

In order to assess damage risk caused by climate change in forest areas, Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence and fuzzy measures were applied to develop a framework for the estimation of economic forest damage. According to the definition of risk supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a function of hazard and resilience lines of evidence was defined. The results of the hazard and resilience assessment were used to develop an economic framework based on Faustmann studies. The evaluation model, implemented through a spatial analysis procedure, was carried out linking Faustmann formula with hazard and resilience raster maps. The model permitted to estimate in monetary terms two possible costs to be supported: the first one is expressed as the expected damage to the forest crop on the basis of the current obtainable woody assortments and the second one referred to the potential expenses to pay in order to mitigate the risk. Finally, the framework was tested on an area of central Italy (Tuscany region).     

Greenhouse abatement policy: insights from the G-cubed multi-country model

The third meeting of the Conference of the Parties of the Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Japan last December was a lost opportunity to set a realistic policy framework for addressing climate change in the coming decades. A number of countries proposed targets for greenhouse emissions, to be reached by a target date. The outcome was a range of different targets for each country. Analysis with the G-cubed multi-country model suggests that fixed targets are a costly way to address climate change. The extent of potential cost suggests the agreement will eventually fail. A better way to address climate change is to focus on uniformity in policy instruments that deliver differentiated outcomes rather than focus on differentiated policy settings.     

Why are there so few afforestation and reforestation Clean Development Mechanism projects?

Of the more than 1600 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects that are currently registered with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), only four are afforestation or reforestation projects. This paper asks why there are so few CDM afforestation or reforestation (CDM A/R) projects given the many economic, social and environmental benefits that such activities potentially offer. The authors discuss the question from two perspectives: namely the constraints to the development of CDM A/R projects and the features of ‘successful’ CDM A/R projects. Constraints to the development of CDM A/R projects include financial, administrative and governance issues. Analysis of the four registered CDM A/R projects suggests that ‘successful’ CDM A/R applications are likely to be characterized by the following: initial funding support; design and implementation guided by large organizations with technical expertise; occur on private land (land with secured property rights attached); and most revenue from Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) is directed back to local communities. It is argued that the CDM needs to be reformed to support the development of more CDM A/R projects, particularly with regards to incorporating greater flexibility, simplifying the methodological and documentation procedures of CDM registration, and redefining the role of the UNFCCC in CDMs from one of adjudication to one of facilitation.     

中国森林固碳及提供其他生态服务功能的潜力和挑战

应对气候变化,实现可持续发展,是一项紧迫而又长期的任务。胡锦涛主席在2009年联合国气候变化峰会上宣布将森林碳汇作为应对气候变化的一项重要举措。分析中国扩大森林面积和蓄积目标的重要性,讨论如何挖掘中国森林固碳及提供其它生态服务功能的潜力。     

Interventions to better manage the carbon stocks in Australian Melaleuca forests

Forests and woodlands dominated by tree species of the genus Melaleuca cover around 7,556,000 ha in Australia and predominantly occur as wetland ecosystems. In this Viewpoint, we use published secondary data to estimate that there is likely to be between 158 tC/ha and 286 tC/ha stored in Melaleuca forests. These estimates are at least five times greater than the previous estimate made by the Australian Government (about 27.8 tC/ha). There are 2.1 million ha of protected Melaleuca forest which likely stock between 328 M tC and 601 M tC; equivalent to between 2.7% and 5.0% of total carbon storage of all Australian native forests. These estimates are significant because it appears that carbon stocks in Melaleuca forests are currently dramatically under-estimated in Australia's national greenhouse gas emissions inventory reported under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Whilst the precision of the estimates is limited by the availability of rigorous primary data, we also argue that the estimates are indicative and meaningful, and this synopsis highlights the fact that this forest type should be considered a significant carbon store nationally and globally.     

Making two parallel land-use sector debates meet: Carbon leakage and indirect land-use change

Several land-based policy options are discussed within the current quest for feasible climate change mitigation options, among them the creation and conservation of forest carbon sinks through mechanisms such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation also called REDD+ and the substitution of fossil fuels through biofuels, as legislated in the EU Renewable Energy Directive. While those two policy processes face several methodological challenges, there is one issue that both processes encounter: the displacement of land use and the related emissions, which is referred to as carbon leakage in the context of emissions accounting, and indirect land-use change also called ILUC within the bioenergy realm. The debates surrounding carbon leakage and indirect land-use change issues run in parallel but are rather isolated from each other, without much interaction. This paper analyzes the similarities and differences as well as common challenges within these parallel debates by the use of peer-reviewed articles and reports, with a focus on approaches to address and methods to quantify emissions at national and international scale. The aim is to assess the potential to use synergies and learn from the two debates to optimize climate benefits. The results show that the similarities are many, while the differences between carbon leakage and ILUC are found in the actual commodity at stake and to some degree in the policy forum in which the debate is taken. The geographical scale, actors and parties involved also play a role. Both processes operate under the same theoretical assumption and face the same problem of lacking methods to quantify the emissions caused by international displacement. The approach to international displacement is one of the main differences; while US and EU biofuel policymakers acknowledge uncertainties in ILUC accounting but strive to reduce them, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change excludes accounting for international carbon leakage. Potential explanations behind these differences lie in the liability issue and the underlying accounting principles of producer responsibility for carbon leakage and consumer responsibility for ILUC. This is also reflected on the level of lobby activities, where ILUC has reached greater public and policy interest than carbon leakage. Finally, a possible way forward for international leakage accounting in future climate treaties could be the adoption of accounting methods taking a consumer perspective, to be used alongside the existing set-up, which could improve climate integrity of land-based policies.