Estimating capacity utilization of Chinese manufacturing industries

This study investigates the capacity utilization (CU) of Chinese manufacturing industries, using a CU indicator based on data envelopment analysis and directional distance functions (DDFs). The inputs are separated into variable inputs and a quasi-fixed input to measure the gap of DDFs, which indicated either under-utilization of inputs or overcapacity. Moreover, we define an indicator for CU change over time and introduced the corresponding decomposition. We note that, during the study time period (2007–2010), the CU of Chinese manufacturing industries improved, which implies that Chinese manufacturing industries expanded their production and got closer to their capacity during the examined period. The driving force of this improvement is technical changes. The higher average CU values of light manufacturing industries than that of the heavy industries and the extremely high CU values of two light industries reveal a severe overcapacity problem in the light industries. We also provided the methods and conduct analysis on determining optimal variable inputs and the type of the overcapacity on specific DMUs. The bootstrap regression procedures are employed to test the influence of environmental variables on CU values. Finally, we provide policy implications and suggestions for policymakers who oversee the development of Chinese manufacturing industries.     

Estimating heterogeneous agents behavior in a two-market financial system

In this paper, we propose a two-market empirical model with heterogeneous agents based on Chiarella et al. (J Econ Behav Organ 83(3):446–460, 2012). Using monthly data of French and US stock markets, the regression shows that individual markets have features of a two-regime switching process. By including inter-market traders whose trading decision is based on fundamental value of foreign market, the two-market model has a better capability in explaining both markets with domestic fundamental traders turning to be significant. The existence of inter-market traders implies that the two markets impact each other through their fundamentals and hence share some common set of factors, which provides foundation of market interactions, such as market co-movement.     

Estimating debt capacity of New York State health facilities

A measure of the capacity to take on new debt is developed for health facilities. This measure is a function of the current financial position of the facility, future financial market conditions (interest rates and bond/loan maturities), and a policy variable (the debt service coverage ratio) to be set by state health policy makers. The quality of this measure was shown to depend on the quality of current health facility financial accounting data, on the quality of forecasts of interest rates and future cashflow, and on the appropriateness of the criterion debt service coverage ratio. Some of the limitations of the estimate are discussed. Consideration of the debt capacity estimate serves to highlight some crucial issues in imposing capital expenditure limits, namely the interrelationships between financial viability, interest rates and access to capital markets.     

Output targeting and capacity utilization for a new-built airport: Analysis for the new airport in Istanbul

Output targeting and capacity utilization issues are crucial but troublesome tasks for the new airport projects. This study aims to identify the output targets for the new-built airport in Istanbul to be considered operationally efficient when compared to regional and global counterparts and to investigate the utilization rate of input resources. To do that, a novel two-stage approach was proposed. The first stage involves setting output targets using a modified DEA approach and multi-layered perceptron algorithm. Once the output targets are determined individually by these two methods, slack variable analysis of DEA was applied in the second stage to define the input slacks related to infrastructure. Analysis results revealed the passenger, cargo, and aircraft movement targets for each stage of the project. Input slacks were also identified, and possible avenues for input reduction were explored that would enhance capacity utilization.     

Predicting capacity utilization: Federal Reserve vs time-series models

This study evaluates the Federal Reserve forecasts of manufacturing capacity utilization employing, as benchmarks, the forecasts from a univariate model which utilizes past information in capacity utilization, and from a bivariate model which utilizes past information in both capacity utilization and the federal funds rate. In addition to accurately predicting the directional change in capacity utilization, the Federal Reserve forecasts are “weakly” rational and generally superior to the bivariate forecasts. In light of another finding that monetary policy is non-neutral, we argue the Federal Reserve forecasts of capacity utilization have positively contributed to the Fed’s success in maintaining a low inflationary environment.

Estimating qualifications in a self-evaluating group

We shall propose a method for assigning qualification values to individuals in a group, based on a cross-ratings matrix of its members. The method requires specification of a so-called ‘calibration function’ describing the dependence of judging competence on qualification.     

Productivity gaps and capacity utilization in the manufacturing sectors of five OECD-countries, 1963–1982

The purpose of this paper is to apply some novel features in the theory of productivity indexes to the measurement of productivity gaps. It advances the proposition that one reason for the persistence of productivity gaps might be that the methodology of measuring gaps does not separate shifts of the production function due to intercountry efficiency from shifts due to intercountry differences in capacity utilization.In this paper we calculate productivity gaps for four OECD countries relative to the U.S., adjusted for cyclical variations in capacity utilization for the period 1963–1982. The theoretical foundation of our measurement is based on a variable cost function approach with short-run fixity of capital. Without adjusting for differences in capacity utilization within the countries, productivity gaps are a mixture of differences in productivity and in capacity utilization.The refereeing process of this paper was handled through C. Morrison.     

Estimating a restricted normal mean

Let X ₁, X ₂, ..., X _n be a random sample from a normal distribution with unknown mean μ and known variance σ ². In many practical situations, μ is known a priori to be restricted to a bounded interval, say [−m, m] for some m > 0. The sample mean , then, becomes an inadmissible estimator for μ. It is also not minimax with respect to the squared error loss function. Minimax and other estimators for this problem have been studied by Casella and Strawderman (Ann Stat 9:870–878, 1981), Bickel (Ann Stat 9:1301–1309, 1981) and Gatsonis et al. (Stat Prob Lett 6:21–30, 1987) etc. In this paper, we obtain some new estimators for μ. The case when the variance σ ² is unknown is also studied and various estimators for μ are proposed. Risk performance of all estimators is numerically compared for both the cases when σ ² may be known and unknown.     

Nash-equilibria in a heterogeneous oligopoly with fuzzy information

We consider a model of an oligopolistic market with heterogeneous firms and products where neither the cost nor the demand functions are common knowledge. Instead, each firm only has some vague ideas about the price strategies adopted by its competitors which is modelled by a fuzzy set. In analogy to the notion of an "equilibrium of actions and beliefs" we define and characterize a generalized Nash-equilibrium and show its existence under general conditions. Furthermore, the impact of the fuzzy information on the equilibrium outcome is analyzed by means of a comparative static analysis within a particular model framework.Received: 28 May 2002, Accepted: 25 December 2002, JEL Classification: D43, D80, L13We wish to thank Bernhard F. Arnold, the editor Murat Sertel , and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Of course, we are responsible for all remaining errors.     

Estimating contract indexation in a Financial Accelerator Model

This paper addresses the positive implications of indexing risky debt to observable aggregate conditions. These issues are pursued within the context of the celebrated financial accelerator model of Bernanke et al. (1999). The principal conclusions include: (1) the estimated level of indexation is significant, (2) the business cycle properties of the model are significantly affected by this degree of indexation, (3) the importance of investment shocks in the business cycle depends upon the estimated level of indexation, and (4) although the data prefers the financial model with indexation over the frictionless model, they have remarkably similar business cycle properties for non-financial exogenous shocks.     

Asset price and wealth dynamics in a financial market with heterogeneous agents

This paper considers a discrete-time model of a financial market with one risky asset and one risk-free asset, where the asset price and wealth dynamics are determined by the interaction of two groups of agents, fundamentalists and chartists. In each period each group allocates its wealth between the risky asset and the safe asset according to myopic expected utility maximization, but the two groups have heterogeneous beliefs about the price change over the next period: the chartists are trend extrapolators, while the fundamentalists expect that the price will return to the fundamental. We assume that investors’ optimal demand for the risky asset depends on wealth, as a result of CRRA utility. A market maker is assumed to adjust the market price at the end of each trading period, based on excess demand and on changes of the underlying reference price. The model results in a nonlinear discrete-time dynamical system, with growing price and wealth processes, but it is reduced to a stationary system in terms of asset returns and wealth shares of the two groups. It is shown that the long-run market dynamics are highly dependent on the parameters which characterize agents’ behaviour as well as on the initial condition. Moreover, for wide ranges of the parameters a (locally) stable fundamental steady state coexists with a stable ‘non-fundamental’ steady state, or with a stable closed orbit, where only chartists survive in the long run: such cases require the numerical and graphical investigation of the basins of attraction. Other dynamic scenarios include periodic orbits and more complex attractors, where in general both types of agents survive in the long run, with time-varying wealth fractions.     

Estimating the Derivative of a Convex Density

We obtain a relation between the time between two bird-catchings and the total resting period of a bird, leading to the problem of estimating the derivative of a convex density. We state a fundamental result on the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of a convex density. Further, we derive the optimal rate in the minimax risk sense for estimating the derivative of a convex density.     

Collaborative modes with Cultural and Creative Industries and innovation performance: The moderating role of heterogeneous sources of knowledge and absorptive capacity

Organizations can no longer be isolated entities in the current dynamic competitive environment but tend to establish alliances and networks with external parties. Recently, research has suggested that organizations develop collaborative modes with Cultural and Creative Industries (CCIs) to acquire and combine Heterogeneous Sources of Knowledge (HSK) within their organizational environment. Innovation thus becomes increasingly generated by a cross-process involving a diverse set of industries. Nevertheless, few studies have assessed how knowledge from distant industries, such as CCIs, can affect firms’ innovation performance. Accordingly, this empirical research on a sample of 187 firms evaluates whether formal and informal collaboration modes with CCIs affect innovation performance. Moreover, it assesses the moderating role of both HSK and absorptive capacity. In particular, it aims to answer the following questions. What are the effects of collaboration modes with CCIs on firms’ innovation performance? What are the differences (in terms of effects) between Formal Collaboration Modes (FCMs) and Informal Collaboration Modes (ICMs) with CCIs on firms’ innovation performance? Do heterogeneity of knowledge sources and absorptive capacity increase the possibility of benefiting from FCMs and ICMs with CCIs in terms of innovation performance? The results contribute to the theory indicating that HSK are important to benefit from knowledge from CCIs, while absorptive capacity does not fulfil the same role.     

Empirical properties of a heterogeneous agent model in large dimensions

We introduce a variant of the Adaptive Beliefs System (ABS) of Brock and Hommes (1998) based on returns instead of prices. Agents form their demands according to the degree to which they are trend-following or contrarian. Empirically, the model requires that agents’ demands be coerced by leverage constraints. Using five samples of US stock returns, we show that the fit to realized returns is essentially driven by the total dispersion of the model’s returns. We also find that the latter are more realistic when forecasts are based on short-term estimates and when trend-followers and contrarians have the same ex-ante importance. We then provide evidence that the model is able to mimic most stylized facts observed on financial markets (tail decay, volatility clustering and autocorrelation patterns) quite closely. Finally, we find that portfolio policies designed according to the model’s predictions outperform the naive 1/N portfolio out-of-sample by 2% per annum.     

Behavior of the firm in a market for heterogeneous labor

This paper develops a dynamic model of the firm in a labor market where workers and jobs are heterogeneous with respect to skill. The firm's recruitment policy, in a heterogeneous market, consists of both a wage offer and a skill requirement. The explicit derivation of this policy serves to clarify the difference between the long-run and short-run relationship between wages and skills. The short-run shift in this relationship helps to explain the occupational upgrading that occurs in cyclical upswings. The model also highlights the impact of the skill level distribution on the rate of change of firms' wage offers.     

多数据源数据信息交换中间件的设计与实现

网络环境下的异构数据交换技术是数据集成、电子商务应用和Web服务合成系统等实际应用的核心支撑技术。文章基于"协作者"模式,以关系数据库和XML文档为异构数据源的典型代表,给出了Web服务环境下的数据交换模型,介绍了数据交换模型的4种基本操作的算法思想和利用Web服务合成技术实现数据交换的方法,通过一个示例,验证了文章提出的数据交换方法的有效性。     

Estimating efficiency effects in a panel data stochastic frontier model

Journal of Productivity Analysis - This paper proposes a panel data based stochastic frontier model which accommodates time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity along with efficiency effects. The...     

Estimating a distribution function in the presence of auxiliary information

For estimating the distribution functionF of a population, the empirical or sample distribution functionF _n has been studied extensively. Qin and Lawless (1994) have proposed an alternative estimator for estimatingF in the presence of auxiliary information under a semiparametric model. They have also proved the point-wise asymptotic normality of . In this paper, we establish the weak convergence of to a Gaussian process and show that the asymptotic variance function of is uniformly smaller than that ofF _n . As an application of , we propose to employ the mean and varianceŜ _n ² of to estimate the population mean and variance in the presence of auxiliary information. A simulation study is presented to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators , andŜ _n ² .     

Estimating and testing a quantile regression model with interactive effects

This paper proposes a quantile regression estimator for a model with interactive effects potentially correlated with covariates. We provide conditions under which the estimator is asymptotically Gaussian and we investigate the finite sample performance of the method. An approach to testing the specification against a competing fixed effects specification is introduced. The paper presents an application to study the effect of class size and composition on educational attainment. The evidence suggests that while smaller classes are beneficial for low performers, larger classes are beneficial for high performers. The fixed effects specification is rejected in favor of the interactive effects specification.     

Equilibria,stability and asymptotic dominance in a speculative market with heterogeneous traders

We consider a pure exchange economy where one risky and one riskless security are traded in discrete time. Individual demands are expressed as fractions of individual wealth and depend on traders’ forecasts about future price movement.Introducing the ‘Equilibrium Market Line’ as the locus of all possible equilibrium returns, we show that, irrespectively of the number of traders and of their investment behavior, the economy possesses isolated equilibria where a single agent dominates the market and continuous manifolds of equilibria where many agents hold finite wealth shares. Moreover, we prove that no global dominance order relation among strategies can be defined.