Growth, welfare and optimal trade taxes: a fallacy of composition

Optimal export taxation rules out the possibility of immiserizing growth in a two-country world. Thus, productivity increases in the exporting sector must be welfare improving. This paper shows that in a multicountry world such reasoning commits a fallacy of composition. Simultaneous growth of exporting nations can lead to welfare losses in the presence of unilaterally optimal export taxes. Also, optimal export taxes can decline in response to such growth. This result further strengthens the possibility of perverse welfare movements. Thus, standard policy recommendations of increasing productivity in the exporting sector may lead to unintended and self-defeating outcomes.     

Political regimes and income inequality

We construct a theoretically-motivated model of income inequality. Through a pooled regression on an international panel, we demonstrate that political regime (whether extractive, redistributive, or reinvestment-oriented) correlates with within-country income inequality.     

Entry costs, industry structure, and cross-country income and TFP differences

Entry costs vary dramatically across countries. To assess their impact on cross-country differences in output and TFP, we construct a model with endogenous entry and operation decisions by firms. We calibrate the model to match the U.S. distribution of employment and firms by size. Higher entry costs lead to greater misallocation of productive factors and lower TFP and output. In the model, countries in the lowest decile of the entry costs distribution have 1.32 to 1.45 times higher TFP and 1.52 to 1.75 times higher output per worker than countries in the highest decile. As in the data, higher entry costs are associated with lower entry rates and business density.     

Calibrating spatial models of trade

Empirical spatial models of trade that are based on a mathematical programming specification often exhibit a large discrepancy between the equilibrium solution and the observed demand, supply and levels of trade flows among countries. This discrepancy may be due to several causes. Assuming, however, that a trade model is not misspecified – in the sense that behavior of the economic agents involved in the specific commodity markets has been included in the study and that the relevant policy instruments have been properly taken into account – the cause of discrepancy may be traced either to imprecision of unit transaction costs or to imprecision in the measurement of the demand and supply functions' parameters, or both. Policy assessments based on this type of imprecise models are distorted. This paper presents a methodology for calibrating mathematical programming spatial trade models of increasing complexity, from the one-commodity case to a multi-commodity model with asymmetric slope matrices of demand and supply functions. The proposed calibration procedure identifies corrections of imperfectly measured parameters. The calibrated models generate solutions that exactly reproduce quantities produced and consumed in all countries, as well as trade flows among all pairs of countries, observed in a given base year. Such models may then serve as a springboard for assessing the impact of various policy changes on economic agents in the countries under study.     

The trade paradox persists under excise taxes

Brander and Krugman (1983) and Sertel (1988) followed by Krugman (1989), showed two sides of a ‘trade paradox’: The paradox in competition, viz. that opening trade (or increasing competition) may cause welfare to decline, and the paradox in efficiency, viz. that an increase in unit transport cost may increase welfare. In this paper, we consider the situation in an environment where interventionist trade policies are not permitted but each country is sovereign to impose an excise tax (or subsidy). The paradoxes persist under equilibrium excise taxes, reckoned both at the non-cooperative (Nash or dominant strategy) equilibrium and at the cooperative solution among tax-imposing authorities maximizing welfare. We also see that the paradoxes persist in a taxless environment where market equilibrium is Stackelberg rather than Cournot.     

Growth, income taxes and consumption aspirations

In a Barro-type economy with exogenous consumption aspirations, raising income taxes favors growth even in the presence of lump-sum taxes. Such a policy is compatible with the behavior of private consumption, income taxes and growth rates observed in actual economies.     

Nonlinearity in the financial development–income inequality nexus

The majority of theoretical studies on the relationship between income inequality and financial development argue that financial deepening might be a feasible instrument for improving income distribution. This paper finds that the prediction crucially depends on the stages of financial development that the country is undergoing. The benefits of financial depth only occur if the country has reached a threshold level of financial development. Below this critical value, financial development counteracts income inequality. Our policy implication is that a minimum level of financial development is a necessary precondition for achieving reduction in income inequality through financial development.     

Training, search and wage dispersion

This paper combines on-the-job search and human capital theory to study the coexistence of firm-funded general training and frequent job turnovers. Although ex ante identical, firms differ in their training decisions. The model generates correlations between various firm characteristics that are consistent with the data. Wage dispersion exists among ex ante identical workers because workers of the same productivity are paid differently across firms, and because workers differ in their productivity ex post. Endogenous training breaks the perfect correlation between work experience and human capital, which yields new insights on wage dispersion and wage dynamics.     

The trade balance and the terms of trade in a two-country two-sector OLG economy

We consider a two-country, two-sector OLG model. It is shown that the trade balance and the relative price of exports are always positively related when exports are labor intensive regardless of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption. A large response of savings to future prices becomes a sufficient condition for an inverse relation between these variables only if exports are capital intensive. In this case, a rise in the terms of trade can be followed by a trade balance decline if consumption goods are capital intensive and the income effect implied on savings is negative and large.     

Second-best trade policies in Cournot oligopoly

In this paper we study the optimal import policy in an oligopolistic market with a given number of quantity-setting firms. In the absence of fixed costs, we show that if the policy instrument is an import quota, the optimal policy is either free trade or autarky, while if the instrument is a tariff the optimal policy is neither free trade nor autarky. In the case of fixed costs, we show that contrary to the traditional protectionist argument, a restrictive import policy might increase domestic welfare by increasing domestic consumers' surplus, instead of increasing domestic profits.     

Biogeographical conditions, the transition to agriculture and long-run growth

We use new data on the timing of the transition to agriculture, developed by Putterman and Trainor (2006), to test the theory of Diamond (1997) and Olsson and Hibbs (2005) that an earlier transition is reflected in higher incomes today. Our results confirm the theory, even after controlling for institutional quality and other geographical factors. The date of transition is correlated with prehistoric biogeography (the availability of wild grasses and large domesticable animal species). The factors conducive to high per capita incomes today are good institutions, an early transition to agriculture, access to the sea and a low incidence of fatal malaria. Geographical influences have been at work in all of these proximate determinants of per capita income.     

Does a ‘non-committed’ government always generate lower social welfare than its ‘committed’ counterpart? Strategic trade policy when consumer surplus matters

We show that social welfare in the setup where the government lacks the full ability to commit to its trade policies may exceed the social welfare when the government possesses full commitment power if consumer surplus is part of the social welfare function. This is never the case in the standard, “third market” framework of strategic trade policy. We provide two examples in which consumer surplus matters: the “home market” and the “intra-industry trade” setup. The policy instruments under consideration are import tariffs and export subsidies and there are R&D spillovers from the domestic to the foreign firm.     

Credit rationing, interest rates and capital accumulation

A simple endogenous growth model is developed to characterize credit rationing through the capital accumulation process. The model shows that credit rationing on investment loans decreases as capital accumulates and the enforcement cost decreases. We find that the evolution of the interest rate factor (lending interest rate/depositing interest rate) has a similar pattern to the credit rationing probability. However, simulations show that the evolution of the interest rate spread through the capital accumulation process depends on the degree of the enforcement cost. In the empirical part of the paper, we consider fifty-two countries, at different stages of development, over the period 1995–2005. We confirm the theoretical findings relative to the evolution of the interest rate spread and interest rate factor with capital accumulation. These results suggest that, for economies endowed with costly contract enforcement, the interest rate factor could be a better proxy of credit rationing than the interest rate spread.     

MNEs and wages: The role of productivity spillovers and imperfect labor markets

Disentangling the labor market implications of increased foreign capital flows remains important. This paper provides a unifying framework allowing to study the wage implications of multinational enterprise (MNE) activities, pointing to the importance of controlling for both labor market imperfections and productivity spillovers from foreign to local firms. Results show that increased MNE activities increase average wages in the local economy while contributing to a larger wage dispersion between the MNE and local firms. While the results pertaining to average wages depends heavily on the frictions in the labor market, how much the wage dispersion alters also depends on the extent of productivity spillovers from the MNEs to the local firms and the complementarity between domestic and foreign capital.     

Cross-country income convergence revisited

We reassess convergence of income across countries and its determinants. The ergodic distribution of output per worker features multiple modes. In contrast to previous findings, productivity in the long run is unimodal. The long-run distribution of human capital is multimodal.     

Cyclical wage movements in emerging markets compared to developed economies: The role of interest rates

This paper documents that, at the aggregate level, (i) real wages are positively correlated with output and, on average, lag output by about one quarter in emerging markets, while there are no systematic patterns in developed economies, and (ii) real wage volatility (relative to output volatility) is about twice as high in emerging markets compared with developed economies. We then present a small open economy model with productivity shocks and countercyclical interest rates. The model incorporates a working capital requirement and the Jaimovich and Rebelo (2009) preference that allows for flexible parameterization of the strength of income effects on labor supply. The model can account for the high volatility of wage and consumption relative to output and countercyclical trade balances that characterize emerging-market economies. During economic downturns, rising interest rates in emerging markets induce relatively large income effects on labor supply, so households would not reduce their labor input as much even though wages drop significantly.     

A new test for linear inequality constraints when the variance–covariance matrix depends on the unknown parameters

We extend Hansen’s (2005) test to testing hypotheses involving general inequality constraints where the variance–covariance matrix of the functions in the constraints depends on the unknown parameters. The test can be applied to a wider class of problems than Wolak’s (1991).     

Adult nutrition and growth

We provide microeconomic foundations for the commonly assumed subsistence constraint on consumption and demonstrate that the theory is consistent with several important features of development. In principle, subsistence is consistent with different combinations of food consumption, energy expenditure, body weight, and health. In practice, caloric intake has remained remarkably constant over the course of development, giving the appearance of a minimal subsistence constraint in consumption alone. We argue that the trendless nature of caloric intake results from a positive income effect on food consumption being offset by a reduction in the need for food as the energy requirements of work decrease with development. The theory helps explain the observed patterns in body mass, fertility, and economic growth rates for more than two centuries.     

A note on duality in consumer theory

Summary. In this paper we will show that upper semicontinuity of the indirect utility function implies the upper semicontinuity of the direct utility function. By strengthening the assumptions, one can also deduce the continuity of the utility function. Based on indirect utility functions a model of consumer behavior will be established. Received: December 26, 1996; revised version: August 25, 1997     

Tariff liberalization and trade specialization: Lessons from India

This paper analyzes the effects of policy reform on the structure of India’s trade in manufactures, from 1990 to 2006. It computes comparative advantage indicators on the basis of disaggregated trade flow data and assesses the effects of trade liberalization on the evolution of India’s pattern of trade specialization. Industries where import tariffs have been reduced the most have experienced the highest increase in specialization. Moreover, trade liberalization has helped India improve its comparative advantage in industries with medium- to high-technology content, as well as in some of the industries enjoying the most robust growth in global demand. Liberalization policies have been instrumental in enhancing the international competitiveness of industries.