The dynamics of inequality and social security in general equilibrium

This paper analyzes the dynamic politico-economic equilibrium of a model where repeated voting on social security and the evolution of household characteristics in general equilibrium are mutually affected over time. In particular, we incorporate within-cohort heterogeneity in a two-period Overlapping-Generation model to capture the intra-generational redistributive effect of social security transfers. Political decision-making is represented by a probabilistic voting à la Lindbeck and Weibull (1987). We analytically characterize the Markov perfect equilibrium, in which social security tax rates are shown to be increasing in wealth inequality. A dynamic interaction between inequality and social security leads to larger social security programs. In a model calibrated to the U.S. economy, the dynamic interaction is shown to be quantitatively important: It accounts for more than half of the social security growth in the dynamics. We also perform some normative analysis, showing that the politico-economic equilibrium outcomes can be fundamentally different from the Ramsey allocation.     

Military reserves and social welfare

We consider the contribution of reserves to the efficient mobilization of military manpower. Our analysis suggests that offering recruits an option to serve as reservists enhances social welfare if there is a sufficiently strong relationship between recruit performance in the military and their expected civilian income.     

The recent boom–bust cycle: The relative contribution of capital flows, credit supply and asset bubbles

We use an estimated open economy DSGE model with financial frictions for the US and the rest of the world to evaluate various competing explanations about the recent boom–bust cycle. We find that the savings glut hypothesis is insufficient for explaining all aspects of the boom in the US. Relatively strong TFP growth and expansionary monetary policy are also not able to explain fully the volatility of corporate and in particular residential investment. We identify bubbles in the stock and housing market as crucial. Concerning the downturn in 2008/2009, the fall in house prices and residential investment only plays a minor role. Mortgage defaults have more explanatory power, especially in a specification of the model with a segregated equity market. Finally, the bursting of the stock market bubble was at least as important in this recession as in 2001. Because of various negative shocks hitting the economy at the same time in 2008/2009 and continued positive technology growth, not only the real interest rate declined but inflation fell rapidly and left insufficient room for monetary policy to play a similar stabilising role as in previous recessions.     

Options and sunspots in a simple monetary economy

Summary. We study sunspot immunity in a dynamic monetary economy in which consumers are allowed to trade put and call option contracts on the general price level. We define the concept of strong sunspot immunity to characterize economies that have no sunspot equilibria regardless of the number of extrinsic states and their probabilities of occurrence. We show that a small number of option contracts can make an economy strongly sunspot immune. In addition, we demonstrate how asset re-trading opportunities, and the associated capital gains and losses, reduce the number of options needed for this result to obtain. Received: August 13, 1996; revised version: January 20, 1997     

Military expenditure and economic growth across different groups: A dynamic panel Granger-causality approach

Applying GMM (Arellano and Bond, 1991) to panel data of 90 countries spanning over 1992–2006, this paper explores possible relationships between military expenditure and economic growth. Based on the definitions of income levels by the World Bank – high, middle and low – our results indicate military spending leads negatively economic growth for the panels of low income countries with a marginally significance level of 10%. Of four different regional panels (Africa, Europe, the Middle East–South Asia and Pacific Rim), a negative but stronger (5% significance level) causal relationship from military expenditure to economic growth is found for the Europe and Middle East–South Asia regions.     

Identifying the sources of energy use change: Multiple calibration decomposition analysis and structural decomposition analysis

Decomposition methodologies are requisite to identify the sources of changes in energy use or carbon dioxide emissions. This paper is an inquiry into the theoretical properties of such decomposition methodologies. The study first presents our new decomposition methodology – the Multiple Calibration Decomposition Analysis (MCDA) – as a tool for the investigation. Then, it theoretically reexamines an established decomposition methodology – the Structural Decomposition Analysis proposed by Casler and Rose (1998). Subsequently, the study empirically investigates the properties of both methodologies, applying them to an actual case: the changes in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in Japan during the oil crises period, when the oil price had a significant influence on the economy. The result shows that understanding the theoretical properties of decomposition methodologies is essential for a precise interpretation of empirical results.     

A further investigation of unemployment persistence in European transition economies

This paper analyses the dynamics of the unemployment rate in the eight countries from Central and Eastern Europe which joined the EU in 2004. Unit root tests allowing for nonlinearities and structural changes suggest that the unemployment rate is not stationary in most of the sample countries. Tests allowing for fractional integration, however, reveal that shocks are highly persistent, implying a slow rate of convergence to the natural rate of unemployment. The unemployment rate is least persistent in Hungary and Slovenia, more persistent in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Baltic States and extremely persistent in Poland. The degree of persistence appears to reflect the different levels of economic and institutional development in the countries and possibly also the role of the government.     

Jointly optimal monetary and fiscal policy rules under liquidity constraints

We study the welfare properties of an economy where both monetary and fiscal policies follow simple rules, and where a subset of agents is liquidity constrained. The welfare benefits of optimizing the fiscal rule are far larger than those of optimizing the monetary rule. The optimized fiscal rule implements strong automatic stabilizers that primarily stabilize the income of liquidity-constrained agents, rather than output. Transfers targeted to liquidity-constrained agents are the preferred fiscal instrument. The optimized monetary rule exhibits super-inertia and a weak inflation response. Optimized simple rules perform as well as the optimal policy under the timeless perspective.     

Asset price volatility and government revenue

This paper investigates the effect of commercial, residential property and equity price volatility on the variability of cyclically adjusted government revenue. We find significant evidence that asset price volatility increases the variability of government revenue. A 1% increase in equity price volatility increases government revenue variability by 0.37–0.44%. An increase in residential property price volatility increases revenue volatility by about 0.15–0.22%, whereas this effect diminishes to 0.11% in case of commercial property price. This evidence reflects the automatic increase of government revenue variability due to asset price movements and supports arguments in favour of adjusting fiscal variables for both business cycle and asset price changes. However, we also find evidence that equity price variability increases revenue variability even when government revenue is adjusted for both economic and asset price cycles, indicating the presence of more complicated dynamics between fiscal variables and asset price changes.     

Fiscal institutions and public spending volatility in Europe

This work provides empirical evidence for a sizeable, statistically significant negative impact of the quality of fiscal institutions on public spending volatility for a panel of 23 EU countries over the 1980–2007 period. The dependent variable is the volatility of discretionary fiscal policy, which does not represent reactions to changes in economic conditions. Our baseline results thus give support to the strengthening of institutions to deal with excessive levels of discretion volatility, as more checks and balances make it harder for governments to change fiscal policy for reasons unrelated to the current state of the economy. Our results also show that bigger countries and bigger governments have less public spending volatility. In contrast to previous studies, the political factors do not seem to play a role, with the exception of the Herfindahl index, which suggests that a high concentration of parliamentary seats in a few parties would increase public spending volatility.     

Optimal versus realized policy rules in a regime-switching framework

In this paper we compare a deterministic model and a Markov switching model to analyze the behavior of the US economy and the Federal Reserve. We examine both optimal and empirical monetary policies for the US Federal Reserve between 1960 and 2008. We compare the optimal monetary policy to the actual interest rates and to the empirical reaction function. We also evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the preferences assigned to each objective. We find that there is no unique optimal solution that fits the Federal Reserve behavior over the entire period. The best fit to the actual interest rates is obtained by an optimal policy with preference switches following the rule: a high-volatility regime coincides with a priority on inflation alone while in a low-volatility regime there is equal policy priority on output stabilization and inflation.     

Assessing the effects of financial heterogeneity in a monetary union a DSGE approach

The aim of this article is to analyze how financial heterogeneity can accentuate the cyclical divergences inside a monetary union that faces technological, monetary, budgetary and financial shocks. To this purpose, this study relies on a two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, where the two countries are supposed to be differently sensitive to the bank capital channel. The model allows us to demonstrate how a given symmetric shock causes cyclical divergences inside a heterogeneous monetary union. On this point, it allows reproducing some stylized facts recently observed in the Euro Area. Moreover, it appears that the more heterogeneous the union, the larger the effects of financial asymmetries on the transmission of shocks. Finally, we show that a common monetary policy contributes to worsen cyclical divergences, in comparison with monetary policies that would be nationally conducted.     

Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach

We examine inflation and uncertainty in the UK with a version of the Markov Switching model, which allows for changes in the variance as well as in the mean and persistence of a series. We find that the UK’s attempts at exchange rate pegs in the form of shadowing the deutschmark and entering the ERM were ineffective, and in the latter case counterproductive in lowering inflation uncertainty. The 1981 budget, however, greatly lowered uncertainty, and the adoption of a formal inflation target also had a palpable, negative impact on inflation uncertainty. As a suggestive exercise, we examine inflation uncertainty in the US, and find that, over 2005–2008, in the absence of an inflation target, uncertainty rose in the US, while uncertainty remained low in the UK over this period of rising commodity prices and financial turmoil.     

Constrained suboptimality in incomplete markets: a general approach and two applications

Summary. In this paper we re-examine generic constrained suboptimality of equilibrium allocations with incomplete numeraire asset markets. We provide a general framework which is capable of resolving some issues left open by the previous literature, and encompasses many kinds of intervention in partially controlled market economies. In particular, we establish generic constrained suboptimality, as studied by Geanakoplos and Polemarchakis, even without an upper bound on the number of households. Moreover, we consider the case where asset markets are left open, and the planner can make lump-sum transfers in a limited number of goods. We show that such a perfectly anticipated wealth redistribution policy, though consistent with the assumed incomplete financial structure, is typically effective. Received: August 14, 1995; revised version: April 11, 1997     

Stationary monetary equilibria with strictly increasing value functions and non-discrete money holdings distributions: An indeterminacy result

In this paper, we present a search model with divisible money in which there exists a continuum of monetary equilibria with strictly increasing continuous value functions and with non-discrete money holdings distributions.     

Sector-specific productivity shocks in a matching model

Endogenous separation matching models have the shortcoming that they are barely able to replicate the Beveridge curve (i.e. the negative correlation between unemployment and vacancies) and business cycle statistics jointly. This paper builds upon the sectoral shock literature and combines its insights with the standard endogenous separation matching approach. We show that the endogenous matching model with sectoral shocks can generate an aggregate Beveridge curve and performs reasonably well in explaining business cycle facts, especially compared to the one-sector baseline model.     

Credit and inflation under borrower?s lack of commitment

In this paper we study the effects of monetary policy on privately supplied credit in model economies where money is needed for transaction purposes and agents who default on their loans cannot participate in the credit market but are allowed to accumulate money. In our deterministic benchmark economy where agents alternate in productivity, credit has the role of smoothing consumption. We show that deflation crowds out credit completely. The reason is that deflation increases the value of being excluded from the credit market and eliminates the incentive to repay loans. When inflation is positive but low, credit, consumption smoothing and welfare increase with inflation, until inflation reaches a threshold at which the allocation is efficient and money becomes superneutral.     

Sunspot fluctuations in dynamics with predetermined variables

Summary. In this paper, I study the existence of Sunspot Equilibria in a general framework whose dynamics allow for the presence of predetermined variables in the system. The main motivation for this research comes from the fact that previous studies did not allow for such predetermined variables which, nevertheless, appear quite naturally in economic models. I show, for a non-negligible subset of dynamics with predetermined variables verifying usual assumptions, the existence of Stationary Sunspot Equilibria fluctuating between an arbitrary finite number of states arbitrarily close to a steady state. Received: March 1, 1995; revised version September 18, 1996