利率与货币需求之间的关系研究

降息与货币需求 西方经济学的利率决定论大都着眼于货币供求的分析,认为利率是种价格.其分歧在于什么样的供求关系决定利率.马歇尔的实际利率论强调的是非货币的实际因素,生产率和节约在利率决定中的作用,生产率由边际投资倾向表示,节约用边际储蓄倾向表示,利率的变化则取决于投资量和储蓄量的均衡点.     

个人投资渠道纵横谈——关于个人投资的讨论之二

在过去几年里,保值储蓄对我国大部分居民来说,一直是最具吸引力的个人投资渠道。保值储蓄是在通货膨胀较严重的情况下,中央银行(中国人民银行)采取的一项金融调控措施,其用意在于:(1)保证储户基本利益不受损失。三年期以上定期保值储蓄存款的名义利率不低于通货膨胀率。(2)抑制消费、增加储蓄,降低通货膨胀率。保值储蓄对减少居民即期     

我国利率调整的投资效应分析

１９９６ 年以来，我国连续六次下调利率，一方面体现了我国宏观经济调控方式由直接性向间接性转变，另一方面也反映出利率调整对经济的刺激作用逐渐增强。本文针对现在社会上对利率下调存在的疑义，阐述了利率下调对于促进投资的积极作用。通过分析，笔者认为，我国微观经济主体的利率敏感性已逐渐增强，投资主体的预期也随经济形势好转发生较大变化，因此利率调整可以通过拉动投资促进经济增长。但是，由于我国经济发展的阶段性限制，对利率的调控作用也不能过分夸大，利率调控机制还有待进一步完善     

存款刚性使居民储蓄难以逆转

据央行5月份所作的城镇储户问卷调查．二季度城镇居民对当前利率的认可度降低，储蓄意愿有所减弱。     

中国房地产投资及政策调控的有效性

多年来我国房地产市场呈现过快过热发展,我国政府也不断出台各种政策来调控房地产业的发展。本文基于2007年1月至2015年3月的月度数据,利用误差修正模型和Johansen检验着重分析了货币供应量、存贷利率、房产税三个变量对我国房地产投资的短期和长期影响。结果显示,货币供应量和房产税对我国房地产投资的影响显著,利率对房地产投资的影响并不显著,货币供应量与房地产投资呈正相关关系,利率和房产税与房地产投资呈负相关关系。     

我国利率与储蓄、投资、货币供应量关系实证分析

西方经济学家对利率的波动研究认为,影响利率波动的主要因素是储蓄、投资、货币供给和需求.从实证研究可以看出,我国利率体系扭曲的原因是利率管制,实行利率市场化,是我国与国际接轨的必然要求.     

如何判断我国的利率水平

<正> 一、判断利率水平的标准 判断利率水平的高低一般来说有以下几个依据。 1.平均利润率 按照马克思的论述,利息率的水平是以平均利润率为依据的,即0<利息率<平均利润率。目前我国的企业盈利水平,国有企业的平均利润率为3％左右,非国有企业的平均利润率为6％左右,也就是说,利息率如果超过6％,就超过了其最高限界,从理论上说就是不合理的。 2.通货膨胀率 对于居民来说,判断利率水平高低的非常重要的一个依据是通货膨张率,通货膨胀使货币的购买力下降,会影响到储蓄的实际利率。如果实际利率呈负数,即储蓄不能实现货币的增值保值功能,那么储户就可能放弃储蓄。我国在相当长的一段时间内实行的都是负利率政策,这是一种扭曲的利率关系,显然也是不合理的。 3.国际利率水平 利率水平是否合适的另一个重要的参考指标是国际市场利率。在资本自由流动的情况下,利率水平的差异是吸引各个国家之司资金流动的非常重要的一个原因,资本的流动会改变货币市场上的供给,从而可以使各个国家的利率水平趋向一致。 4.有价证券的收益率 等量资本获得等量收益。从理论上说,储蓄或投资于有价证券,获得的收益应该是一致的。所以价证券的收益率也是衡量利率水平高低的重要指标。一般来说,国库券因为风险小,收益比较稳定,所以常被     

利率杠杆与居民消费-储蓄替代关系分析

1996年以来，中国人民银行为鼓励投资、分流储蓄、刺激消费等已连续几次降息。然而，实证资料表明，降息在分流银行储蓄存款、刺激居民消费方面并没有达到预期的效果。本文认为主要原因有二：第一，利率与居民消费-储蓄替代关系本来就是一个缺乏确定结论的问题：第二，我国制度变迁、消费信贷发展滞后、居民收入差距扩大等因素的存在又进一步削弱了利率杠杆的调控力度。因而，深化改革，减少居民面临的不确定性，大力发展消费信贷，努力缩小收入差距是利率杠杆得以发挥作用的重要条件。     

央行加息的政策效应分析

从西方国家近半个多世纪的实践来看，发挥利率在货币政策操作中的作用是一种主流思想，利率对货币政策意向的传导是通过中央银行操作调控基准利率开始的。基准利率变动首先影响的是短期货币市场利率。在广义金融市场上，短期利率变动可以通过两条渠道来影响长期利率，进而最终影响投资与消费支出：     

六次利率下调的效用分析

1996年5月以来,人民银行运用了一系列货币政策工具,旨在对国民经济中的货币、经济结构进行调整,引导储蓄向消费和投资转化,扩大国内总需求。其中使用最多的一项货币政策工具就是利率政策,在2年多的时间里,六次调低利率。如此频繁地调低利率在我国还是第一次。那么这六次调低利率的实际效果如何呢?这是本文要探讨的问题。 一、调低利率大大降低了企业的经营成本,但对提高企业整体效益作用不明显 两年多的时间里,平均贷款     

Saving,investment, growth and the cost of financial repression

This paper presents a quantitative estimate of the cost of financial repression in developing countries. Here, financial repression is interpreted as the technique of holding institutional interest rates (particularly deposit rates of interest) below their market equilibrium levels. For a sample of developing countries, saving is found to be affected positively by the real deposit rate of interest, as is real money demand, where money is defined broadly to include savings and time deposits. Under disequilibrium interest rate conditions, higher saving which raises real money demand increases pari passu the real supply of credit. Credit availability is an important determinant not only of new investment but also of capacity utilization of the entire capital stock. Hence, the growth rate is itself affected positively by the real deposit rate of interest through two channels – first, the volume of saving and investment and, second, capacity utilization of the entire capital stock, i.e. the measured incremental capital/output ratio. Estimates of saving and growth functions lead to the conclusion that the cost of financial repression appears to be around half a percetage point in economic growth foregone for every one percentage point by which the real deposit rate of interest is set below its market equilibrium rate.     

资产价格波动差异:由股市与房价观察

我国股票市场和住宅市场的市盈率与货币幻觉代理变量通货膨胀率、名义利率呈现明显的反向关系,即在高通胀时,市场被低估;在低通胀时,市场被高估。通货膨胀通过货币幻觉,影响资产估值高低。股市的市盈率波动幅度远大于住宅市场,股票价格波动主要来自估值倍数变化;而住宅的估值倍数波动小,房价波动更多地受到了估值倍数与租金变化的综合影响。     

Financial crisis and saving–investment dynamics in the presence of cross-sectional dependence: The case of East Asia

Using the common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) technique to a set of balanced panel error correction model, we examine the effects of the Asian financial crisis of 1997, and the global financial crisis of 2008 on the behavior of saving and investment in East Asian countries. Our results show that saving and investment rates are highly dependent across countries of East Asia. This finding underlines the importance of taking into account cross-sectional dependence when analyzing saving–investment relationship. The results also indicate that the adverse financial shock of 1997 has negatively affected the short run correlation between saving and investment, but has not influenced their long run relationship. Our finding, hence, verifies the prediction of new open economy macroeconomic theories regarding the divergence of short run saving–investment from its long run trend for East Asia. Moreover, we find that the global financial crisis of 2008 has not affected the saving–investment dynamics in this region. It means that the consequences of the Asian and global financial crises for saving–investment dynamics are not the same in East Asia. One might attribute these differences to the origins of these two shocks, i.e., internal versus external to the region. These findings may have some policy implications for those countries that rely heavily on foreign investment and are subject to various internal and external financial shocks.     

Dynamics of Money Market Interest Rates in Ghana: Time-Frequency Analysis of Volatility Spillovers

As the second longest practicing inflation targeting economy in Africa, it is of interest to investigate the degree to which policy interest rate influences other money market rates so as to gauge the overall effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in Ghana. This study evaluates the degree of connectedness among money market rates and also determines the most dominant money market rate(s) in Ghana. The basic finding is that the monetary policy rate has a low-to-moderate influence on volatility dynamics of other money market rates in Ghana across historical time-interval and time-frequency domains. This is a reflection of a generally weak capability of policy interest rate to drive other market rates in Ghana. Both monetary policy rate and Treasury bill rate are net transmitters of shocks, while interbank, lending and saving rates are net receivers of shocks in the money market. However, the Treasury bill emerges as the largest shock transmitter in the money market, across all forecast horizons and analytical domains. The lending rate is the largest shock recipient in the money market, largely from the Treasury bill rate which suggests ample evidence of fiscal dominance in Ghana. The study accentuates the exigency for monetary and fiscal policies to expeditiously address the domestic structural bottlenecks, especially in the financial sector and the fragile fiscal profile, in order to strengthen policy transmission in Ghana.     

Household savings in China

The domestic saving rate in China is the highest in the world and it surpasses the investment share in GDP, which is also very high by international standards. This excessive saving results in a large current account surplus. Understanding why the Chinese save so much is a central issue in the debate on global imbalances. The goal of our paper is to analyse empirically Chinese household saving behaviour taking into account the disparities within the country, at the provincial level and between rural and urban households. We first show that, notwithstanding the rising contribution of government and firms to national savings the real peculiarity lies with Chinese families. We move from Modigliani and Cao's (2004) attempt to explain rising personal saving in China within the life cycle hypothesis and show how a more careful analysis indicates that life-cycle determinants do not suffice, especially in the most recent period. Once we consider regional differences and distinguish urban and rural households using provincial-level data, it becomes clear that additional explanations are needed and that precautionary motives and liquidity constraints are playing an important role. Our results suggest that in order to reduce the propensity to save of Chinese households it is necessary to improve social services provision and to facilitate the access to credit.     

Demographic Effects on Personal Saving in the Future

After briefly examining the various proposed causes for the decline in the U.S. personal saving rate in the past decade, this essay then argues that a shift in the demographic composition of the population will be a much more important cause for a decline in personal saving in the future. A change in the balance between those in the labor force who are saving and retirees who are dissaving will result in a considerable fall in the aggregate saving rate under most assumptions. The simulation model used to examine this phenomenon takes into account the interest rate, the growth rate of the economy, the retirement age. the growth of population, and the life expectancy. Attention is also given to certain consequences of the fall in the saving rate, such as changes in the interest rate, changes in asset prices, and a decline in the GDP growth rate.     

"货币幻觉"与房价虚涨实涨——质疑"房价虚涨论"

在房价不断上涨的现象面前,房价上涨源于货币幻觉的观点具有一定影响。通过对房价上涨是虚涨还是实涨的分析,从而说明房价虚涨论的片面性。实际情况是,货币幻觉对房价上涨的影响是短暂的;收入的增长幅度低于房价的上涨幅度等因素,决定了房价是实涨而非虚涨。房价虚涨论的危害在于,如果房价上涨被房价虚涨论所误导,将会影响政府抑制房价过快上涨政策措施的制定和实施,也将对居民的住房投资和消费产生负面影响。     

Anomaly in China＇s Dollar-RMB

Newly-established data on onshore deliverable US dollar-RMB forwards and the Shanghai lnterbank Offered Rate from Oetober 2006 to April 2009 reveal significant violations of covered interest rate parity. This paper explains the cause of this anomaly. Deviations in the forward market are caused by an increase in US dollar-to-RMB conversion restrictions. Given that Chinese monetary authorities want to prevent market participants from taking advantage of the predictable appreciation of the RMB, China＇s State Administration of Foreign Exchange has to tighten up the control on US dollar-to-RMB conversions. Under the tightened conversion restrictions, similar deviations will resurface in the forward market whenever hot money inflow increases. One way to avoid covered interest rate parity violations in the forward market is to decrease hot money inflow into China by maintaining a stable and credible exchange rate policy.     

U.S. Saving and Investment: Policy Implications

Some economists have argued that the close association between domestic saving and investment rates justify polices aimed at altering domestic saving flows so as to influence domestic investment flows. This interpretation assumes an endogenous investment response. Equally likely, theoretically, is that the close association is maintained by movements in saving. The present paper explicitly examines the endogeneity of the U.S. saving and investment flows. Overall the results suggest that while the domestic saving rate responds endogenously, the domestic investment rate does not. This finding may limit the potential benefits of saving policies.     

DEMAND FOR MONEY AND EXPENDITURE COMPONENTS IN SOUTH AFRICA: ASSESSMENT FROM UNRESTRICTED ERROR-CORRECTION MODELS

The main aim of this study is to examine empirically the long‐run relationship of money demand and its determinants in South Africa. In contrast with existing studies on the subject, the present study considers various components of real income as determinants. The disaggregated components are final consumption expenditure, expenditure on investment goods and exports. The other determinants are domestic interest rate, yield on government bonds and the exchange rate. The results confirm that the different components of real income have different impacts on the demand for money in South Africa. The presence of long‐run equilibrium relationships between the demand for real M1, M2 and M3 and their determinants is confirmed based on the results of bounds testing.