通胀兵临城下

遍及各国的宽松货币政策与刺激计划让通货膨胀成为一个时代的主题。     

通胀对日本的影响

有种流行的观点认为，既然日本在上个世纪90年代曾饱受通货紧缩之苦，那么该国经济应当会从物价飙升中受益。这话只说对了一半。和其他国家一样，大宗商品价格上涨推动下的通货膨胀也同样会危害到日本的经济增长。     

通胀阴影下的全球性货币紧缩

2005年世界经济的全面复苏和石油价格的持续上涨不可避免地为通货膨胀加速输入了源源动力，面对全球性的通胀抬头。一场充满默契的货币运动正在世界各个角落潜在酝酿。     

通胀严重威胁稳定

可以说，通货膨胀对中国的经济稳定暂时还没有构成严重威胁。但是，中国政府有足够的理由担心通货膨胀将会造成的严重威胁。     

4万亿投资效果初显通胀争论愈演愈烈通货膨胀会否在年底出现?

通货膨胀要来了吗?有人说,听见了它的脚步声。但是,从国家统计局6月10日公布的5月份居民消费价格总水平(CPI)、全国工业品出厂价格(PPI)两项数据指标同比呈现双下降的局势,看不出通货膨胀要来的势头。     

伯南克会压抑美国通胀吗？

【香港《大公报》10月31日】 美国总统布什10月24日宣布，提名现任总统经济顾问委员会主席伯南克，接替将于明年初任期届满的格林斯潘，担任美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）主席。这一提名尚待得到参议院的批准。     

通胀预期尚难自我实现

中国刺激经济的举措意犹未尽，近期政策面再次强调将继续执行宽松货币政策。这将增加经济复苏的可持续性，并降低未来经济掉头向下的可能性。 不过．这是否会咖快通货膨胀的到来？现在很多国家已经开始考虑收紧机制了，包括经济依然赢弱的日本。但这在很大程度上只是应对舆论压力的一种姿态，在今年没有国家会真的转向紧缩。     

寻求通胀与增长之间的平衡

今年以来，在整体经济继续保持平稳较快增长、基本面总体良好的同时，也出现了一些值得关注的问题，突出表现在两个方面：一是市场物价涨幅明显攀高，二是经济增速有所回落。在通货膨胀和经济增长放缓已成为全球面临的突出问题的新形势下，下阶段我国宏观调控政策如何选择，是以抑制通货膨胀为主，还是以防止经济增长可能出现的明显滑落为主，抑或两者兼顾？对此，我们作了如下分析。     

寻求通胀与增长之间的平衡

今年以来，在整体经济继续保持平稳较快增长、基本面总体良好的同时，也出现了一些值得关注的问题，突出表现在两个方面：一是市场物价涨幅明显攀高，二是经济增速有所回落。在通货膨胀和经济增长放缓已成为全球面临的突出问题的新形势下，下阶段我国宏观调控政策如何选择，是以抑制通货膨胀为主，还是以防止经济增长可能出现的明显滑落为主，抑或两者兼顾？对此，我们作了如下分析。     

Inflation Targeting as a Coordination Device

The paper analyses inflation targeting when two independent policy authorities (a central bank and a National Government) have divergent preferences for the optimal policy mix. We demonstrate that the main advantage of inflation targeting, as a policy regime, is that it represents a simple proxy for full coordination between policy authorities. Inflation targeting therefore helps because it reduces the conflicts between fiscal and monetary policy, expecially where there are strong spillovers between the two policies. These results are then tested, and largely validated, in a simulation framework using a small open economy calibrated model.     

通胀目标制：功能机理、政策绩效与启示

通货膨胀目标制是20世纪90年代初西方发达国家兴起的一种货币政策框架。文章从理论阐释了通胀目标制的功能机理,运用48个国家的相关数据对通胀目标制的绩效进行了实证分析,实证结果表明:通货膨胀目标制有助于锚住通胀预期,降低通货膨胀,稳定产出,是一种比较成功的货币政策框架。这一结论对货币政策框架需要调整的我国具有一定的政策启示。     

Direct Inflation Targeting and Nominal Convergence: The Czech Case

This study analyses the impact of direct inflation targeting (DIT) on monetary policy credibility in the Czech Republic, as evidenced by asset prices. It examines the effect of changes in the two-week repo rate (the official interest rate) on short and long–term market interest rates. It assumes the asymmetry of information and the existence of a stationary stochastic equilibrium with full knowledge of authorities reaction function. We find that at short maturities, the coefficients for changes in the official repo rate are lower in the DIT period than in the pre-crisis period. This implies that the hypothesis of no increase in the transparency of monetary policy with the introduction of DIT can be rejected. We find that bond yields and interest rate swap rates with maturities of 5 years and longer did not react significantly to official interest rate decisions in the DIT period. This is consistent with the hypothesis that monetary policy was credible both before and after introduction of DIT.     

货币错配与通货膨胀目标制的不可行性：针对我国现实

现阶段我国正面临人民币汇率稳定与物价稳定的"两难冲突",国内外一些学者主张我国应该采用通货膨胀目标制。从货币错配的角度探讨通货膨胀目标制在我国的可行性表明,由于存在较严重的货币错配及特殊的国情,现阶段我国尚不具备实行通货膨胀目标制的条件,短期内,通货膨胀目标制在我国并不具有可行性,货币政策适合以货币供应数量和价格作为混合使用的政策调控目标。     

Inflation Targeting in ASEAN‐10

The paper addresses the empirical question of whether economies that do not systematically target inflation (non‐inflation targeters) experience higher exchange rate volatility as compared with inflation targeters in 10 countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) from 1990 to 2010. The paper examines the role of real exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and the reaction functions of central banks using dynamic panel estimation techniques. The results indicate that the output gap offers more useful information than the inflation gap in setting interest rates for inflation targeters, implying that the real term is more important than the nominal term. In turn, this suggests that an increase in interest rate can be wielded swiftly to reduce real gross domestic product and suppress inflation. The real exchange rate appears as a weaker determinant in setting interest rates for non‐inflation targeters. Inflation targeters experienced lower exchange rate volatility compared with non‐targeters in the ASEAN, which implies that implementation costs to their domestic economies may be marginally lower. Meanwhile, the non‐targeters follow a mixed strategy as both the inflation and real exchange rate are used as instruments to set the interest rates.     

Low Inflation,Pass-through,and a Discrete Inflation-targeting Framework for Monetary Policy in China

The performance of inflation in China over the past few decades has been remarkable. This paper characterizes the statistical nature of the inflation series in China over the past quarter of a century and presents an interesting scenario of large decline in inflation pass-through accompanied with low inflation since the end of the 1990s. How should monetary policy in China be conducted under these new economic conditions? We propose a discrete inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy,which is likely to be suitable for the regime of low inflation and inflation pass-through. The advantages and caveats of adopting such a framework are also discussed.     

Inflation and Inflation Expectations in South Africa: an Attempt at Explanation

This paper examines the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in South Africa. We use inflation expectations derived from the quarterly surveys conducted by the Bureau of Economic Research from 2001Q1 to 2011Q4 . Using these data, we estimate the model assuming that private sector expectations are a linear function of the inflation target and lagged inflation. The results indicate that economic agents' expectations largely depend on lagged inflation. This suggests that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has not been successful in anchoring expectations of the private sector since the adoption of the inflation targeting (IT) regime in 2000. We also find evidence indicating that the SARB's implicit inflation target lies above the upper bound of the official IT band. Finally, it appears that the SARB has been more concerned about output stabilisation than inflation stabilisation.     

Inflation Targeting and the Pass‐through Rate in East Asian Economies

There has been serious debate regarding whether the inflation targeting (IT) framework for the emerging market economies has been an effective nominal anchor. Focusing on Korea, Thailand and the Philippines, this article aims to contribute to the debate by providing empirical evidence on a decline in the ‘pass‐through’ effect with IT adoption. Our main findings are as follows. First, under the IT framework, Korea has followed an inflation responsive rule in a forward‐looking manner, while Thailand has adopted the rule in a backward‐looking manner. Second, only Korea experiences a reduction in the pass‐through effect under IT adoption, thereby showing a linkage between the forward‐looking inflation responsive rule and the pass‐through effect. Finally, a test of the sensitivity of inflation expectations to external price shocks in Korea supports this linkage.     

结构性通货膨胀、流动性过剩及政策应对

文章首先论述了结构性通货膨胀在我国的表现形式,研究发现因部门瓶颈制约和劳动生产率增长水平差异导致结构性通货膨胀的机理;其次,从货币这个通胀的根本因素出发,分析出货币供大于求的流动性过剩对结构性通货膨胀起到助推作用,引起对农产品、房地产需求增加导致其价格大幅上涨;最后,为保持经济平稳发展,提出解决若干宏观经济政策选择方面的政策建议。