Impact management,worst scenatrio: possible technological strategic options

Analysis of the present situation and future predictions leaves no doubt of the inevitability of progressive degradation of the ecosytem. A worst scenatio is an option which has to be considered in any strategic planning. Mistaken assessment, focussing on modern technology as teh cause rather than the agent porducing the current devastation, has called for its drastic curtailment. This would not help matters—in fact, technology may yet save the situation: by building refuges, in attempting to reverse the processes which undermine it, and in helping adaptations to present conditions, not only throuht mechanical devices but also through bioengineering. concurrently the main reasons for the plight of the planet—over-population, overkill and waste—have to be tackled. This can only be accomplished by a complete change in ethical standards—the taming of the ’genetic ethics‘ of growth and dominance and the institution of a new mnorality.     

Messianic futurism: The Christian example

An intense and substantial strain in futurism today, whether or not it is associated with doomsday forecasts, is messianic in nature. There is about this strain a hunger for a savior and for total or sweeping solutions, the two perhaps serving as versions of each other. In most cases, the roots of the messianic are to be found not in Greek or Hebraic sources but in the Christian tradition. An examination of that original tradition as well as its permutations throughout history provide not only a profile of the current messianic impulse, but also why Christianity—indeed, most traditional religions—exist in two camps that vigorously oppose each other. Finally, the exploration of the messianic is valuable because historically it has appeared throughout history only when it has found its match in magnitude of problems. Thus, the messianic is symptomatic of a present situation which is regarded as simultaneously intolerable and a prelude either to deliverance or termination.     

Ukraine's unconsidered losses from the annexation of Crimea: What should we account for in the DCFTA forecasts?

In March 2014 Crimea unilaterally declared its independence from Ukraine and joined the Russian Federation. The separation of a part of a state's territory and economy is an interesting matter to examine. The economy of Ukraine has not only shrunk, but also changed its structure as Crimea had a quite distinct production pattern compared to the rest of Ukraine. Moreover, policy measures initialized before the separation may have different effects once applied only to a part of the former economy. This paper proposes a strategy to model the separation of part of an economy and its inclusion into another country and applies this strategy to the case of Crimea, Ukraine, and Russia. Having constructed a model for the new geographical and economic situation, we reinvestigate the possible effects of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement between Ukraine and the EU and compare the results for the situation with Crimea as part of Ukraine. We find that the annexation of Crimea leads to severe economic losses for Ukraine which are partly overproportional compared to Crimea's economic size. These negative effects can be compensated by implementing the DCFTA with the EU as we also show in our model results.     

Project evaluation framework for industrial technology capacity enhancement

There is an increasing trend for interconnections between all nations of the world owing to the widespread globalization of industrial production, inputs sourcing and outputs marketing. A further reason is the raised awareness of global consequences, resulting from natural resources depletion and apparently localized environmental degradation activities by industries. Much of this ever-growing and complex interdependence has been possible as a result of a host of unprecedented technologial achievements in the past few deades, which have enabled industrial enterprises in developed countries to accomplish an increased degree of flexibility, through automated manufacturing, to combine economies of sale, through process standardization, with economies of scope, through product differentiation, and to acheive quicker response times to customers7apos; prefernces and market demands. Simultaneously, in most developing countries, there is also an observable undercurrent of deregulation, privatization or corporatization, and open international market competition for industrial development. In this present era of new internationalism, technology management has become one of the main strategic priorities, because it provides the vital factor underpinning the survival and prosperity of industrial enterprises everywhere. Hence, given the recognition that the key competitive advantage in the international market-place nowadays is the ability of an enterprise continuously to introduce technological innovations faster than others, the need for endogenous technology capacity building can hardly be overmphasized. This paper presents a general framework for the development of a set of technology indicators which could be useful for assesing industrial investment projects funded by an international or national development finance institutino. The framework attempts to integrate business and technology strategies particularly in the context of developing countries. Starting with consideration of the unique characteristics of technolgoy at the firm level, and using a systems analysis approach to the market structure, possible strategic mixed are determined by considering four business stratetgies—price, value, niche and green leadership—and four technology strategies—technology leader, follower, exploiter and extender. The necessary considerations for a technological capability enhancement and palusible technology strategy rogression path are also discussed for different development conditions. The analytical measures presented in this paper are focused on such important aspects as the degree of technology component sophistication, the level of technology capability advancement, the status of technology infrasturcture building, and the dynamism of technology climate, all of which could be used for investment project review and appraisal undertaken by iunternational and national development finance institutions.     

A prospective on macrocybernetic process management systems

In an editorial in the February 1996 issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change Professor Linstone noted that “the rapid pace of technology has not been matched by the pace of human change.” Were we to drop our perspective a bit lower, a similarly troublesome imbalance within technology itself becomes apparent: the rapid rate of increase in the complexity of process-related technologies relative to the much slower rate of increase in the sophistication of process control systems. The conclusion at which most technological forecasts seem to arrive is that there will be a continuation—perhaps even an acceleration—of the trend toward more intricate and sweepingly extensive processes (production-related and otherwise). If so, there is the specter of a steadily increasing shortfall between requirements and capabilities, and hence the likelihood of even grander technological embarrassments. This article considers two ways in which this shortfall might be kept in check. Increases in the intricacy of processes can be met, and to a considerable extent are already being met, by exchanging conventional process control facilities for enhanced alternatives. Less certain is how expansions of project scope might best be accommodated. One possibility is to consider exchanging process control systems for broader-purview process management systems. Hence the focus in this article is on prospects for the development of macrocybernetic constructs.     

Emergent foresight processes: industrial activities in wireless communications

Technology foresight has received growing attention among those involved in the shaping and implementation of science and technology (S&T) policies. However, although evaluative analyses of foresight exercises have supplied evidence on acclaimed benefits—such as the generation of future-oriented knowledge and strengthening of collaborative networks—they also point to challenges in translating foresight results into actions within research and technology development (RTD) organizations. In this article, we address these challenges by considering the work of the Wireless World Research Forum (WWRF), which has sought to promote the conception, development, and diffusion of wireless communication technologies. Specifically, by contrasting this work with well-known government-initiated foresight exercises, we typify so-called explicit, emergent, and embedded foresight activities and explore their interrelationships. Our comparative analysis points to conditions under which policy interventions may not be needed for the emergence of foresight activities that exert a major influence on RTD agendas. It also suggests several context-dependent roles for public policy, among which government-driven foresight exercises and the catalysis of more narrowly focused activities are but two examples.     

Global management of technology: A study of 16 multinationals in the USA Europe and Japan

With technology having become a key factor in national survival, top managers in the USA, Europe and Japan overwhelmingly rank 'leveraging of technology for competitive advantage' the primary challange their companies face. Technology is one of the key competitive tools at the command of the winners—and the losers—in today's market-place. Ultimately, however, the most important competitive weapon may prove to be the skilful management and deployment of technology resources rather than the resources themselves. The management oj technology on a global scale has therefore become an issue of great importamce to leading technology forms. This article presents an approach to formulating an R&D deployment strategy for a global technology network, based on a study of 16 multinationlas in the USA, Europe and Japan.     

技术创新、劳动力就业与产业模式选择:假说、框架和检验

从技术和劳动力的替代关系假说出发,探讨中国产业发展过程中技术创新、劳动力就业和产业模式之间的内在联系。研究发现:随着劳动效率的提升,三次产业内部确实存在技术替代劳动力的情况;但从整体和长期来看,技术创新虽然推动了产业结构调整和经济增长,但对劳动力就业总量的影响不显著;只有当大规模技术变革引起产业发生结构性变动时,技术替代劳动力所带来的失业现象才会出现。得出结论:就业在相当大的程度上表现为宏观经济增长的结果,与技术创新的关系并不明朗。     

发展观光农业旅游应注意的几个问题

观光农业是农业和旅游业交叉所形成的一种新兴产业,当前应注意发展观光农业旅游中出现的一些问题,既要坚持持续发展,又要根据现实分阶段地发展,既进行生态消费,又要注意生态保护,既要促进农地的合理流转,又要保证观光农园土地的正确使用方向,为此,作者提出了相应的对策和主张。     

Contingent knowledge and technology development

It is widely recopnized that many different opes and forms of knowledge contribute to technology development. Formal codified knowledge, tacit knowledge, informal knowledge and cultural knowledge have all recently been addressed. However, one other particular form of knowledge—the contribution of knowledge/information embodied in the working context—has not been directly or explicitly addressed to the same extent. Tet this form of knowledge—'contingent knowledge'—it is argued, plays a crucial but under-appreciated role in technology development and innovation. In this paper, the concept of contingent knowledge is further explicated and illustrated by means of examples, and the strategic and practical implications are drawn out.     

The Development and Diffusion of Radical Technological Innovation: The Role of Bus Demonstration Projects in Commercializing Fuel Cell Technology

North American, European and Japanese governments have legislated to control Greenhouse Gas emissions and have promoted alternative technology as part of strategies to address climate change. Governments worldwide have sought to encourage adoption of alternative automotive technology by funding demonstrations and in-service trials. Among other initiatives the automotive industry has explored applications of a radical technological innovation—fuel cells—to power a range of vehicles from forklifts to buses. This paper examines the rationale and actions of various stakeholders to facilitate adoption of fuel cell technology in vehicles through a specific market segment—that of fuel cell buses (FCBs)—and explores the progress of FCB projects in North America, Europe and Japan. It examines the role of demonstration projects and highlights the complexity of the relationship between government and developers, and the multifarious and conflicting objectives of industry players that inhibit progress.     

On the relation between voting intention and the perception of the general economic situation : An empirical analysis for the Federal Republic of Germany, 1972–1986

The main question of this paper is whether consistent government voters have — ceteris paribus — a more positive perception of the general economic situation than do opposition voters. First, some empirical evidence is presented which is usually thought to support this hypothesis. Next, a theoretical model is presented which shows that this evidence is not conclusive and how this hypothesis can be tested correctly. Empirical evidence for the Federal Republic of Germany, 1972–1982, shows that government voters generally had a more positive perception during this period than did traditional opposition voters, but this evidence is far from being overwhelming.     

中国海洋科技资源配置研究

基于中国海洋科技资源配置现状,提出了当前存在的两个关键学术问题。探讨了“海洋科技梯度”的内涵定义,构建了基于涉海城市的“海洋科技梯度系数测度改进模型”;搜集整理了2001—2014年海洋科研机构的科技统计数据,在海洋科技创新效率测度的基础上,测算了全国涉海城市的海洋科技梯度,深入分析了我国海洋科技资源配置的总体规律。研究表明：我国海洋科技资源配置在区域空间上呈现“东高北高、南低中西低”布局,以行政为导向呈现出北上广的强势崛起,以政策为导向呈现出深圳、南宁、沈阳、济南等的后发优势。最后,讨论了当前海洋科技资源配置的形成原因,并提出了对策建议。     

Technology policy making as a social an political process: liberalizing india's software policy

This paper investigates the policy-making process i n a high-technology Indian industry—software—that epitomizes the liberalizing, export-oriented India of the 1980s. Although policy making is a political process, with different groups in both state and industry lobbying for different measures, there are, nevertheless, dominant forces. Within industry, the very large companies have favoured limited liberalization of policy. Within the state, Finance Ministry bureaucrats do not oppose liberalization per se, but their interests are such that they have tended to oppose most liberalization measures. Overlain on this static picture is a dynamic one, in which the balance of power between the various coalitions of interest groups has changed over time. After the early 1980s) liberalization came to be part of the political agenda through the rise to power of policy makers committed to this ideology. However, other interest groups gained in strength and by early 1987 the liberalization process had become piecemeal and in many areas was prevented from progressing further, From this it can be seen that in order to understand the making of a technology policy and its consequent impact, one mustjrst understand the underlying social and political forces that constrain and determine these processes.     

The allocation of ideological structures

This article tries to make allocation in the sociology of knowledge more teachable. What may appear as a sectarian magic is transformed into a rational procedure to be used by teacher and student alike. Allocation requires a number of steps by which (1) the ideological structure is made part of an ideology; and (2) the ideology is related to a particular social situation of past or present either by reflecting it in symbolic expression or by reflecting the exact opposite.The old puzzle of how ideological relativism can be asserted from a theoretical position, which — by social background — cannot be anything but relative in itself, falls by the wayside. Temporarily positivism is claimed for any viewpoint which allows empirical verification. It asserts its relativisim but never reaches absolute and final truth. Relative advantages only can be claimed for the many comprehensive social theories at any given time.The term imputation is replaced by the term allocation in this article. Imputation is a direct translation of the German word Zurechnumg. Borrowed from economic theory, this term is unnecessarily complicated. We cannot do more than allocated ideologies in a manner not amenable to precise numerical imputation.     

A technometric model for the assessment of technological standards and their application to selected technology-intensive products

This article presents a quantitative model for the assessment of technological standards, which is applied to a sample of Japanese data compiled in 1982 that gives technical specifications of high-technology or high- commodity goods in Japan, the United States, and in some Western European countries. The metric model provides a systematic and checkable methodology by which to assess the achieved technological standards and disparities, allowing for cardinal measuring on different levels of aggregation. It does not consider the economic features of the products and processes analysed. The application of the model to a sample of 43 selected products (e.g., polyester filaments, color papers, coaxial cables, powder metallurgical products, machining centers, assembly robots, videotape recorders, semiconductor lasers, automobiles, nuclear reactors, to name only ten) of Japanese, U.S., and European origin (more than 5,500 data) indicates that despite the overall lead of Japan and the United States over European technological standards, the relative position of European— especially West German—technology is above average with respect to key technologies.Through the analysis of all technical specifications available, we show that the Japanese position is strong in technologies related to resources and environment, whereas the United States is in the lead in computer- aided design technologies.     

韩国的技术转移与产业化

近年来,为了促进科技成果的技术转移与产业化,韩国政府实施了一系列的计划措施,并制定了相关的制度。本文从韩国政府在技术转移方面的宏观组织、国家创新体系中的技术转移机构、以大德研究开发特区为代表的产业技术园区的技术转移及韩国科学技术研究院（KIST）的技术转移现状等4个方面对韩国的技术转移与产业化的相关情况进行论述,以供从事技术转移相关工作人员参考。     

中国观光农业发展态势

观光农业是传统农业与现代旅游业相结合的一种新型交叉性产业。它既有生产性功能,也有改善生态环境质量,为人们提供观光、休闲、度假的生活性功能。文章运用产业经济学、微观经济原理从供给和需求两个角度简要分析了观光农业的发展现状,指出观光农业发展中所存在的问题,并在此基础上揭示其将向着主题化、休闲化、生态化、人文化、科技化等方向发展,同时从规划布局、设计开发、制度建设、市场引导等方面提出了相应的对策。     

高技术服务业与资源型产业融合对资源型企业两阶段创新效率的影响

基于新技术与新知识的高技术服务业跨界融合是传统企业实现创新资源优化配置、创新研发和商业转化的重要因素。因此，运用熵指数测度全国各省区高技术服务业与资源型产业融合水平，并利用2014—2017年资源型上市公司面板数据检验两大产业融合对资源型企业两阶段创新效率的影响，同时探讨企业吸收能力的调节作用。结果表明：现阶段高技术服务业和资源型产业融合程度不高，但发展态势良好，处于从失调走向协调的转变期；产业融合对资源型企业创新研发效率短期无显著影响，长期存在抑制作用，资源型企业技术能力刚性导致对新技术的排斥，且较大的产业间认知差距削弱了产业间良性互动带来的技术扩散效应；产业融合对创新转化效率呈先抑制、后促进效应，就长期而言，产业融合具有良好的创新转化推动力；资源型企业吸收能力分别在产业融合与滞后一期创新研发效率及滞后三期创新转化效率的关系中起正向、负向调节作用，表明资源型企业吸收能力构建尚不全面。     

New information technology in India: The electronics riddle

The paper provides a critical assessment of India's electronics policy from its very inception to the present time. It is argued that despite its narrow scope and many shortcomings, the Indian government's new electronics policy based on the principle of liberalization is a step in the right direction. A much wider and speedier development of advanced electronics technology and its application in critical areas—e.g., transport and communication systems—is recommended for India and other similarly situated “non-electronic” developing countries. The implication of missing the electronics revolution by these countries would be their continuing dependence and backwardness.