Labor market effects of import competition: Theory and evidence from the textile and apparel industries

Since the early 1980s, much attention has been given to the possibility of trade-related job losses and wage effects in the textile and apparel industries. This paper uses aggregate time series data from the Annual Survey of Manufacturers [Bartlesman and Gray, 1996] with import price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics [Alterman, 1991] for 1977–91 to test the effect of imports on employment and wages in textiles and apparel. Theoretical models suggest that import competition should be a factor in the determination of employment, and possibly wages, regardless of whether the U.S. is represented as a price-setter or price-taker. The empirical analysis provides some support. The author appreciates the helpful comments of Barry T. Hirsch, participants at the Georgia Southern University economics seminar in November 1997, and the editorial assistance of a reviewer for theAtlantic Economic Journal.     

农村银色保健品市场的需求特点与营销对策研究

农村银色保健品市场的快速发展,受到了众多商家的高度关注,而如何把握农村老年人市场的需求特点,开展有效的营销组合设计,是能否在这个广大潜力市场成功发展的关键。考虑到这一市场在产品上,比较注重核心产品,品牌偏好不强;在价格上,注重性价比,求实动机明显;在渠道要求上,注重便利性,喜欢就近购买;从促销角度看,购买行为比较被动,信息不通畅等诸多特点,笔者坚定认为产品应该是进入农村市场的根本,价格应该适应需求水平,渠道应该是致胜的通路,促销应该是竞争的利器,并在此基础上提出了自己的发展对策。     

Stability of the market for electrical energy

Summary The objective of this paper has been to develop a model of the demand and supply of electrical energy at the individual utility level. Using the model developed, the stability of the market was then investigated. An attempt has been made to incorporate the technological and institutional rigidities that result in a lag in the adjustment between the actual price in a period and an expected normal price which plays a central role in determining the quantity of electrical energy supplied. The model is estimated using data for two different utilities, one located in the western United States and another located in the eastern United States. It is found that expected normal price adjusts rather slowly to actual price, that the elasticity of supply with respect to expected normal price is negative, and most importantly, for the two utilities the market is stable. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the policies of the Federal Energy Administration or the views of other Federal Energy Administration staff members.     

The moonlighting decision of unmarried men and women: Family and labor market influences

This paper investigates the moonlighting behavior of unmarried adults. Moonlighting theory hypothesizes that individuals who face labor supply constraints may possess an enhanced incentive to work for more than one employer at a time, but previous research in moonlighting literature has not investigated the influence of labor market constraints empirically. Unmarried men and women, an increasingly prevalent demographic group, face somewhat unique familial and economic circumstances. Unlike married individuals, they do not have access to intra-household income sources and, yet, they may have children present in their household. Empirical results suggest a relationship between labor market constraints and moonlighting likelihood that is consistent with theory and suggest that a larger immediate and extended family may be associated with a lesser probability of moonlighting.This research was assisted by a grant provided by the Research Institute, University of Alabama in Huntsville. Helpful comments were provided by David Blau, Bruce Dixon, Al Wilhite, and participants in the Young Faculty Research Symposium, University of Alabama in Huntsville. A special debt of gratitude is owed to Howard Hayghe, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, for providing access to several unpublished labor force statistics. The author assumes responsibility for any errors.     

Pricing in the hotel and catering sector

Summary A model explaining gross margins in the hotel and catering sector is developed. A cost-mark-up model for the retail sector is used as a starting point. Although we have to reject the hypothesis of mark-up pricing in the hotel and catering sector, the model proves a useful instrument to discriminate between such influences as sales composition, costs and their various components, scale and demand conditions on price setting. Our empirical evidence stems from the Dutch hotel and catering sector (1977 through 1981).We are extremely grateful to the Central Bureau of Statistics (particularly the Department of Interior Trade and Commercial Services) in Voorburg, The Netherlands for permitting the use of their data under certain secrecy conditions.     

Internal labor markets before World War I: On-the-job training and employee promotion

The recruitment and training of a firm's existing employees for more skilled positions within the firm was a widespread practice in U.S. firms at the turn of the century. Promotion ladders, although informal, provided a substantial number of employees with careers at a single firm. Evidence on internal recruitment from a New York State Bureau of Labor Statistics study early in the 20th century shows that promotion of workers was more likely in larger establishments and establishments employing a higher proportion of semiskilled operatives. Some plausible reasons for this pattern are discussed.     

上海居民住房需求的收入弹性分析———基于家庭层面的微观分析

内容对居民住房需求行为的分析,尤其对住房需求收入弹性的估计,是我们分析住房市场现状及判断发展趋势的重要依据,也是住房政策制定的基础前提.但目前国内相关文献有限,以微观数据为基础的研究更少.本文以国家统计局统计调查队2007年对上海居民家庭的大样本抽样调查问卷为数据基础,运用两阶段模型来估计上海居民住房需求的收入弹性.两阶段模型,即指先通过对租买选择、住户持久收入的分析,再将由此得出的IMR比率(由住户的租买概率计算而得)引入住房需求模型,从而得出参数的估计值.我们发现,在住房市场中,对住房消费的主力人群———30-59岁的各个年龄组中,IMR均显著,说明上海居民租买选择与住房需求量是联合决策.在市场化住房市场中,我们估计的住房需求收入弹性,30-44岁年龄组为0.419,45-59岁年龄组为0.559,收入弹性随年龄上升而增大.同时本文也分析了市场化与非市场化住房市场需求弹性的差异,及租买选择如何随年龄而变化     

Structural characteristics of firms and industries and black and white wage inequality in the U.S. economy: 1988

The effects of firm and job characteristics on the wages of blacks and whites are analyzed using data from the 1988 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth [Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1997]. This study focuses on 2,370 full-time private sector employees. The results show that, first, blacks are disproportionately employed in large establishments despite their lower cognitive achievements. Second, blacks do not enjoy significant wage premiums associated with supervisory positions. Third, although the wage gap between blacks and whites is reduced considerably, controlling for education and cognitive skills, the gap increases significantly when structural attributes are included in the wage regressions despite the large wage premiums associated with employment in large establishments.     

Applications of general equilibrium models to the 1986 tax reform act in the United States

Summary This paper examines the structure and predictions of six applied general equilibrium models used to evaluate the 1986 Tax Reform Act in the United States. The models agree that the effects on national income will be fairly small. They disagree on the size of the improvement in economic efficiency from more neutral taxation of different capital assets, and on the size of the intertemporal inefficiency when capital formation is discouraged through a higher rate of taxation. This new application of general equilibrium models to an actual reform highlights the need to test predictions against empirical evidence.The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve System. The author is grateful to J. von Sinderen, Laus Bovenberg, Lawrence Goulder, and other participants at the conference for their helpful comments, and to the authors of the studies reviewed in this paper for instructive discussions.Prepared for The Netherlands Central Planning Bureau Symposium on Applied General Equilibrium Models, Noordwijk, December 4–5, 1989.     

Rational Partisan Theory: Empirical Evidence for the United States

This paper presents two tests of the rational partisan theory (RPT) of business cycles. First, I develop and test an RPT model in which wage contracts are staggered and overlapping. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on the density and duration of wage contracts and estimates of the incumbent party's election-win probability are employed to calibrate partisan intervention variables entered in output growth regressions. Next, I perform a more “flexible” test of the RPT by comparing partisan output growth differences after elections in which the outcome was relatively surprising with partisan output growth differences after elections in which the outcome was widely anticipated. The two approaches produce the same conclusion: The RPT is not supported by the data.     

Local Labor Market Condition and Influenza Vaccination

Influenza vaccination is a cost-effective preventive service, but its utilization rate is below the recommended level. Many studies have explored possible predictors and causes for low vaccination rates. Despite a large volume of studies in this area, there is limited research on how local economic conditions can affect individual influenza vaccination. This study explores this topic by merging the 2008–2012 individual-level data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) with the Area Health Resources Files (AHRF), and the Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS). Using county-level unemployment rates as a measurement of local economic conditions, we used multivariate probit models to examine its relationship with individual flu vaccination while controlling for individual socioeconomic and demographic factors and contextual characteristics. We found that county-level unemployment rates were significantly and negatively associated with individual influenza vaccination, especially for people who were employed or living in metropolitan counties. Our results support public health interventions to improve flu vaccination during economic recessions.     

政府调控、住房需求结构与住房价格：一个动态模型

垄断土地所有权的政府如果具有短期政绩目标函数,他们对土地的控制会使房地产预期价格具有不断上涨的下鞅性,这会提高住房的投机性需求。本文建立了一个住房价格动态模型,在住房价格服从下鞅性的条件下分析住房价格和住房需求结构的动态,发现并不是所有的初始点都会收敛到稳态均衡点,有些初始点会沿着一个稳定的需求结构不断推动价格上涨。对于这些初始点,政府的调控政策至关重要。我们在相位图中分析了政府各种调控政策对住房需求结构和房地产价格变动路径的影响,发现在所有的调控措施中,最有效的调控政策是通过改进土地产权制度来改变投机需求者的预期,减少住房投机需求,使价格收敛到一个较低的稳态水平上。     

Minimum wage rates and unemployment in The Netherlands

Summary A static limited dependent variable model is formulated to analyse the Dutch labour market from an individual's viewpoint. Results suggest that high minimum labour costs are an important source of unemployment. Secondly, the reduced-form participation equation is replaced by a neoclassical labour supply equation. Thus, also the effect of high minimum wage rates on employment through labour supply is taken into account. Supply appears to be forward bending and participation is insensitive with respect to unemployment benefits. Simulations suggest that the effect of lowering the productivity threshold by reducing before-tax minimum wages dominates supply effects.The author wishes to thank Geert Joosten, Arie Kapteyn, Peter Kooreman, Bertrand Melenberg, Viji Narendranathan and Theo Nijman for helpful comments and the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics for providing the data. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the policies of the CBS.     

试论当前物价结构性上涨的特征、原因及对策

针对当前中国经济发展的"五过"现象,中国政府提出了"两个防止",即"防止经济增长由偏快转为过热、防止价格由结构性上涨演变为明显通货膨胀"。当前宏观调控的首要任务是稳定物价水平、缓解通货膨胀压力。本文在研究国家统计局最新公布的统计数据的基础上,归纳了当前物价结构性上涨的特征,分析了当前物价结构性上涨的原因,并提出了相应的对策建议。     

以劳动实体论释价值转形为价格

文章以劳动实体论为基础,解释了当供给和需求平衡时,价值是如何决定价格.文章在一定程度上发展了马克思主义劳动价值论.     

经济转型期中国能源需求的长期均衡及短期波动:1978-2005

本文利用1978-2005年样本通过状态空间模型研究了改革开放以来能源需求、经济增长、效率改进等之间的动态相关性,在此基础上使用向量自回归模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解模型等对能源需求及其影响因素之间的作用机理进行了系统分析,研究结论表明:改革开放以来能源需求、经济增长、产业结构调整、效率改进等存在长期稳定的均衡关系,能源需求的短期波动除了受到相关因素的直接影响外,制度变迁等不可观测变量对能源消费的模式及其变动有着巨大的推动作用;在对我国能源需求影响的众多变量中,我国经济增长方式的转变和工业化进程的深入推进,尤其是重工业比例在国民经济结构的进一步提高对能源需求的调整具有重要的决定作用;能源价格对能源需求的波动尚未起到明显的调控作用,我国政府应当进一步完善能源价格形成机制,使之能够在能源行业资源配置中起到基础作用.     

P-Star as a link between money and prices in Germany

P-Star as a Link between Money and Prices in Germany. — The equilibrium price levelP-Star is defined as money per unit of potential output at equilibrium velocity. Deviations betweenP-Star and the actual price level (price gap) serve as an indicator of future price movements. To measure equilibrium velocity and to take into account its downward trend in Germany, a long-run money demand function is integrated into theP-Star approach. According to the empirical results, the constructed measure ofP-Star provides a stable link between M3 and the price level. However, comparable evidence could not be established for Ml and M2.     

近期我国通货膨胀的原因及应对策略分析

通常情况下，通货通胀由经济过热引起，治理措施重点放在紧缩信贷、减缓经济增速方面。而我国货币发行量已经有所节制，经济增长幅度也在缩小，通胀却在攀升，2008年5月12日，国家统计局发表4月GPI指数上涨8．5％，比3月的83％，环比增长0．1％。此次我国发生的CPI指数上升与以往通胀不同，显然我们还有疏漏。原因是多方面的，本文主要从以下三个方面分析：一是涨价中有合理因素，如农产品涨价；二是进口型通胀；三是与世界经济接轨导致原来的价格体系转化，新的与世界密切联系的价格体系正在形成之中产生的价格波动、拉升，连带滋生出泡沫。在分析原因的基础上，给出一些应对性策略。     

The quality of China's GDP statistics

Since the 1998 “wind of falsification and embellishment,” Chinese official statistics on gross domestic product (GDP) have repeatedly come under scrutiny. This paper evaluates the quality of China's GDP statistics in four stages. First, it reviews past and ongoing suspicions of the quality of GDP data and examines the evidence. Second, it documents the institutional framework for data compilation and concludes on the implications for data quality. Third, it asks how the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics could possibly go about credibly falsifying GDP data without being found out. Fourth, it examines if the first- and second-digit distributions of official GDP data conform to established data regularities (Benford's Law). The findings are that the supposed evidence for GDP data falsification is not compelling, that the National Bureau of Statistics has much institutional scope for falsifying GDP data, and that certain manipulations of nominal and real data would be virtually undetectable. Official GDP data, however, exhibit few statistical anomalies (conform to Benford's Law) and the National Bureau of Statistics thus either makes no significant use of its scope to falsify data, or is aware of statistical data regularities when it falsifies data.     

Fiscal Deficits, Taylor Rules, and Price Dynamics

This paper reconsiders the issue of price level determination under interest rate feedback rules using an optimizing general equilibrium framework with overlapping generations and flexible prices. The analysis shows that under fiscal shocks, monetary policy commitment to instrument rules of the Taylor-type might be insufficient for inflation control. It is also demonstrated that the existence of a unique stable equilibrium path for the price level does not require active monetary rules.The author wishes to thank an anonymous referee, Barbara Annicchiarico, Giuseppe De Arcangelis, Giancarlo Marini, and Giorgio Rodano for useful comments and suggestions.The usual disclaimer applies.