The Effect of Earnings Forecasts on Earnings Management

We develop a theory of the association between earnings management and voluntary management forecasts in an agency setting. Earnings management is modeled as a "window dressing" action that can increase the firm's reported accounting earnings but has no impact on the firm's real cash flows. Earnings forecasts are modeled as the manager's communication of the firm's future cash flows. We show that it is easier to prevent the manager from managing earnings if he is asked to forecast earnings. We also show that earnings management is more likely to follow high earnings forecasts than low earnings forecasts. Finally, our analysis shows that shareholders may not find it optimal to prohibit earnings management. Earlier results rationalize earnings management by violating some assumption underlying the Revelation Principle. By contrast, in our model the principal can make full commitments and communication is unrestricted. Nonetheless, earnings management can be beneficial as it reduces the cost of eliciting truthful forecasts.     

The Effect of Earnings Management on the Asymmetric Timeliness of Earnings

Abstract:   Is earnings management affecting (driving) the measures of earnings conservatism? Ball et al. (2000) point out that the asymmetry in the recognition of good and bad news in earnings (faster recognition of bad news: earnings conservatism) is more pronounced in common‐law than in code‐law based accounting regimes. However, comparative studies on earnings conservatism in Europe have failed to identify significant differences between common‐law and code‐law based countries. We argue that in code‐law based countries managers have incentives to reduce earnings consistently. This enhances the association between earnings and returns in bad news periods. We find that after controlling for discretionary accruals, the differential earnings response to bad news in Germany and France decreases significantly.     

The Accrual Effect on Future Earnings

Earnings manipulation has become a widespread practice for US corporations. However, most studies in the literature focus on whether certain incentives would facilitate managers to manipulate earnings and there has been little evidence documenting the consequences of earnings manipulation. This paper fills this gap by examining how current accruals affect future earnings (the accrual effect) and measuring the size of this effect. We find that the aggregate future earnings will decrease by $0.046 and $0.096, respectively, in the next one and three years for a $1 increase of current accruals. Over the very long-term (25 years), 20% of current accruals will reverse. This negative accrual effect is more significant for firms with high price-earnings ratios, high market-to-book ratios and high accruals where earnings management is more likely to occur. We show that incorporating the accrual effect is useful in improving the accuracy of earnings forecasts for these firms. Accordingly, the empirical results are consistent with the notion that earnings management causes the negative relationship between current accruals and future earnings. In addition, this paper shows that one recently developed accrual model has better performance than the popularly cited model in identifying manipulated earnings.     

Evaluation of Extraordinary and Exceptional Items Disclosed by Hong Kong Companies

This study evaluates extraordinary and exceptional items (EI) disclosed in financial statements by Hong Kong companies from 1989 to 1993, prior to revision of SSAP 2. The results indicate that disclosures of positive EI were associated with market expectations of profit before taxes. If market expectations were higher than profit before EI and taxes (PBEI), positive EI (gains) were likely to be disclosed to adjust PBEI upwards and thus reduce the gap between reported and expected profits.
The results relating to negative EI (losses) showed that if companies had low historical economic performance they were more likely to disclose negative EI. Because weak historical economic performance is likely to be associated with low market expectations, management used this opportunity to 'spring clean' in order to show better economic performance in future years.
These findings suggest that managers engage in earnings management through disclosure of extraordinary items when they have flexibility to do so. In order to improve quality of financial disclosure, better accounting standards need to be developed for disclosures of extraordinary items, especially by newly developed and developing countries where accounting standards are at the formative stage.     

环境不确定性对盈余管理的影响

环境不确定性会导致公司报告盈余的波动性很大,管理层试图通过盈余管理降低环境不确定性对公司盈余波动性的影响,公司的成长趋势会影响人们对公司环境不确定影响的评估。本文探讨公司环境不确定性和成长趋势以及它们的交互效应对公司盈余管理行为的影响。研究结果表明,环境不确定性越大,公司的盈余管理程度越高;相对于衰退型的公司,增长型公司的环境不确定性与公司正向盈余管理程度正相关程度较低;衰退型公司与增长型公司的环境不确定性对公司负向盈余管理的影响无显著差异。基于不确定性来源的不同,进一步研究发现,衰退型公司更关注公司的可预测变动,而增长型公司更关注随机因素。     

Impact of Segment‐level Natural Resource Operational Risk Reporting on Earnings Predictions

Non‐financial reports alert investors to operational risks associated with issues such as insufficient access to natural resource inputs and related costly interruptions to production, while segment‐level reports alert investors to operational risk distribution across a firm. An important issue, to date unexplored, is how segment‐level non‐financial reporting has an impact on earnings predictions. We report the results of an experiment used to examine how mining company segment‐level water reports affect investors' earnings predictions, where water reports indicate whether the firm and its segments will have access to sufficient water to meet production needs. We find that investors do not change their earnings predictions when firm and segment‐level reports indicate low water risk but they do revise down their earnings predictions when firm and segment‐level water reports indicate high water risk. This is consistent with investors responding to the additional information provided in segment‐level reports confirming that water risk is high across the firm. Regardless of whether firm‐level water reports indicate high or low water risk, when segment‐level reports indicate that one segment is low water risk and another is high water risk, investors revise down their earnings predictions. This is consistent with investors recognizing that natural resource operational risk concentration in one segment can affect earnings more than evenly‐distributed risk. Overall, our findings suggest that belief‐adjustment theory explains how investors react to prospective operational risk information contained in segment‐level water reports according to the similarity of the segment‐level risks, and that this information is factored into earnings predictions.     

The Effect of Earnings–Announcement Timing on Earnings Management

This paper examines whether firms which delay earnings announcements engage in earnings management. The cross–sectional version of the modified Jones 1995 model is used to estimate 'normal' accruals. Prior research has documented that, on average, delayed earnings announcements are associated with negative earnings surprises. Our evidence suggests that the market anticipates unfavorable earnings news when it observes reporting delays. As a consequence, late reporters appear to make the most of a bad situation by employing income–decreasing accruals in big–bath–type earnings management and in contractual renegotiations. We find that the magnitude of income–reducing abnormal accruals is related to the reporting lag.     

我国非经常性损益信息披露管制效果研究

本文通过中国证券监督管理委员会的三次非经常性损益的管制规范对比分析得出研究假说:应用1999年、2001年和2004年的非经常性损益管制所披露的非经常性损益逐次增多。同时,采用每股非经常性损益与每股收益的绝对值比率这一指标和378家上市公司1999年至2005年连续7年的样本数据进行研究。通过进行图表分析、配对t检验和稳定性检验,我们找到经验证据支持我们的研究假说,进而支持了中国证券监督管理委员会的三次非经常性损益的管制规范取得了期望的效果。     

The Effect of Past Earnings and Dividend Patterns on the Information Content of Dividends When Earnings Are Reduced

This study pursues two objectives: first, to provide evidence on the information content of dividend policy, conditional on past earnings and dividend patterns prior to an annual earnings decline; second, to examine the effect of the magnitude of low earnings realizations on dividend policy when firms have more‐or‐less established dividend payouts. The information content of dividend policy for firms that incur earnings reductions following long patterns of positive earnings and dividends has been examined ( DeAngelo et al., 1992, 1996 ; Charitou, 2000 ). No research has examined the association between the informativeness of dividend policy changes in the event of an earnings drop, relative to varying patterns of past earnings and dividends. Our dataset consists of 4,873 U.S. firm‐year observations over the period 1986–2005. Our evidence supports the hypotheses that, among earnings‐reducing or loss firms, longer patterns of past earnings and dividends: (a) strengthen the information conveyed by dividends regarding future earnings, and (b) enhance the role of the magnitude of low earnings realizations in explaining dividend policy decisions, in that earnings hold more information content that explains the likelihood of dividend cuts the longer the past earnings and dividend patterns. Both results stem from the stylized facts that managers aim to maintain consistency with respect to historic payout policy, being reluctant to proceed with dividend reductions, and that this reluctance is higher the more established is the historic payout policy.     

Effect of Investor Speculation on Earnings Management

This paper considers how the presence of a speculative investor, who bets on a firm's future earnings report, affects how the firm's management manipulates that report. We examine the influence of the speculator's information on earnings management behavior, quality of reported earnings, and stock price efficiency. We also provide predictions for, and interpretations of, short‐window event studies and long‐window association studies.     

股权分置改革的盈余质量效应

股权分置改革后,股价直接决定了股东的财富,持有大量非流通股的控股股东有动机操纵盈余以最大化自身的利益。国有股权转让的限制,导致国有控股股东盈余操纵动机弱于其他股东。本文研究了股权分置改革对国有控股公司和非国有控股公司盈余质量的不同影响。研究结果表明,股权分置改革后,非国有上市公司向上盈余管理程度显著提高,盈余持续性显著降低;而国有上市公司的盈余管理程度和盈余持续性都没有显著变化。本文检验了股权分置改革的成效,研究结论可为投资者的投资行为提供决策支持。     

The Effect of Earnings Management on the Value Relevance of Accounting Information

This study investigates whether opportunistic earnings management affects the value relevance of net income and book value in determining stock price. We document a decrease in the value relevance of earnings in the year of an equity offering for a group of firms with ex post evidence of earnings management. This decrease is greater for the discretionary component of earnings than for the non‐discretionary component. These results are robust to model specification and the type of offering. However, the results are sensitive to firms' disclosure activity prior to the offering.     

不同收益水平上盈余信息与股利政策的交互关系研究

以沪深上市公司为样本,检验盈余信息和股利政策在不同收益上的解释作用,并深入研究盈余信息分别与现金股利、股票股利和多种分配方案等三个层面的股利政策的交互关系。结果表明:在大多数收益水平上,盈余信息和股利政策显著影响市场收益水平,而且二者之间存在显著的交互关系。具体而言,现金股利变化与盈余变化在不同收益水平上具有不同的交互影响;而股票股利与盈余信息的交互影响在各收益水平上均不十分突出;多种分配方案中的"综合政策"与盈余变动在各收益水平上表现出较大的正向交互影响。     

Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect the Implications of Special Items for Future Earnings?

Previous research (Rendleman, Jones, and Latane [1987]; Freeman and Tse [1989]; Bernard and Thomas [1990]; and Ball and Bartov [1996]) indicates that security prices do not fully reflect predictable elements of the relation between current and future quarterly earnings. We investigate whether this finding also holds for the special items component of earnings. Given that special items are prominent in financial analysis and are assumed to have relatively straightforward implications for future earnings (special items are assumed to be largely transitory), one might expect that prices would fully impound the implications of special items for future earnings. Based on the "two-equation" approach used in Ball and Bartov [1996] and other studies (e.g., Abarbanell and Bernard [1992]; Sloan [1996]; Rangan and Sloan [1998]; and Soffer and Lys [1999]), we find that while prices reflect relatively more of the effects of special items compared to other earnings components, we still reject the null hypothesis that prices fully impound the implications of special items for future earnings. The "two-equation" approach assesses the consistency of coefficients in a pair of prediction and pricing equations, and thus depends on an assumed functional form. However, a less structured abnormal returns methodology like that used in Bernard and Thomas [1990] also supports the conclusion that the implications of special items are not fully impounded in prices. Specifically, a trading strategy based only on the sign of special items earns small but statistically significant abnormal returns during a 3-day window four quarters subsequent to the original announcement of special items.     

Forecasts in IPO Prospectuses: The Effect of Corporate Governance on Earnings Management

Prior research suggests that managers may use earnings management to meet voluntary earnings forecasts. We document the extent of earnings management undertaken within Canadian Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) and study the extent to which companies with better corporate governance systems are less likely to use earnings management to achieve their earnings forecasts. In addition, we test other factors that differentiate forecasting from non‐forecasting firms, and assess the impact of forecasting and corporate governance on future cash flow prediction. We find that firms with better corporate governance are less likely to include a voluntary earnings forecast in their IPO prospectus. In addition, we find that while IPO firms use accruals management to meet forecasts; the informativeness of the discretionary accruals depends on whether or not the firm would have missed its forecast without the use of discretionary accruals.     

The Effect of Accounting Restatements on Earnings Revisions and the Estimated Cost of Capital

This paper examines the effect of accounting restatements on a firm's cost of equity capital. We show that, on average, accounting restatements lead to both decreases in expected future earnings and increases in the firm's cost of equity capital. Depending on the model used, relative percentage increases in the cost of equity capital average between 7 and 19% in the month immediately following a restatement. The relative increase in the cost of capital dissipates as time passes and after controlling for analyst forecast biases, but continues to average between 6 and 15% in the most conservative setting. We also show that restatements initiated by auditors are associated with the largest increase in the cost of capital, and that firms with greater leverage experience greater increases in their cost of capital. Overall, our evidence is consistent with accounting restatements lowering the perceived earnings quality of the firm and increasing investors' required rates of return.     

The Effect of IFRS Adoption and Investor Protection on Earnings Quality Around the World

This study examines the effects of mandatory IFRS adoption and investor protection on the quality of accounting earnings in forty-six countries around the globe. The results suggest that earnings quality increases for mandatory IFRS adoption when a country's investor protection regime provides stronger protection. This study extends the current literature that shows that accounting practices are influenced by country-level macro settings. The results highlight the importance of investor protection for financial reporting quality and the need for regulators to design mechanisms that limit managers' earnings management practices.