The unemployment problem

The paper reviews the unemployment problem in Europe. It showsthat while there is a good deal of heterogeneity in Europeanunemployment experience, a 'European model' of high and persistentunemployment characterizes many of the core continental economies,in contrast to the low unemployment experience of the USA. Theexplanation that this difference is due to a common skill-biasedshock interacting with more rigid labour-market features inthe European case is reviewed, as is the suggestion that theEuropean experience is exceptional on account of the more stringentmacro-environment created by devotion to tight monetary policies.The policy outlook is one in which strongly expansionary economicpolicies seem unlikely to be launched and most of the burdenof fighting unemployment will be borne by labour-market reforms;the bad side-effects of these could be cushioned by resort towage subsidies, supporting a 'European' bias in favour of equality.The 35-hour week is judged to be an unlikely remedy.     

Black male unemployment

Public policies intended to raise the wages of unskilled workers, equalize educational opportunity, stabilize employment, and increase imports were sources of the growth of unskilled and, therefore, of black unemployment since 1950. The wartime wage-equalization policy and postwar minimum-wage policies raised the cost of unskilled labor relative to that of capital and of skilled labor. The Fed's inflationary full-employment policy between 1950 and 1970 reduced real interest rates relative to unskilled wages. Subsidies for higher education increased the supply of skilled labor, reducing its cost relative to that of unskilled labor. Trade liberalization increased imports of manufactured goods from developing countries, which displaced U.S. unskilled labor.     

Skills and unemployment

This article attempts to spell out the links which are assumed to exist between skills and unemployment. It is argued that the claims made for the beneficial effects of raising the skill levels of the workforce have been exaggerated. The author then goes on to indicate some of the other factors which influence unemployment levels, and sketches the relevance of this to local economic initiatives.     

The effects of unemployment benefits on U. S. Unemployment rates

Zusammenfassung Die Auswirkungen der Arbeitslosenunterstützung auf die Erwerbslosenquote in den Vereinigten Staaten. —In diesem Aufsatz wird an einem preistheoretischen Modell untersucht, wie die Verfügbarkeit von Arbeitslosenunterstützung die Freizeit-Lohn-Konstellation für den ?Durchschnittsarbeiter? ver?ndert und geeignet ist, Arbeitslosigkeit zu verursachen. Anhand des Modells wird gezeigt, wie marktm?\ige und institutionelle Sicherungen in den Versicherungsprogrammen —wie die Notwendigkeit, eine neue Arbeit zu finden, das Bestehen einer Wartezeit vor dem Empfang der Versicherungsleistungen und die Anforderungen für das Erfüllen der Anspruchsvoraussetzungen —den Anreiz zur Arbeitslosigkeit, der durch Versicherungszahlungen ausgel?st wird, vermindern. Das theoretische Modell führt zu einer Spezifizierung von Sch?tzgleichungen. Es werden aggregierte Zeitreihen-Daten der Vereinigten Staaten für 1951–1972 und ein Querschnitt von U.S.-Bundesstaaten für 1971 benutzt. Dabei ergibt sich, da\ die unabh?ngigen Variablen, die als Determinanten induzierter und zyklischer Arbeitslosigkeit unter den Versicherten vermutet wurden, theoretisch erwartete Vorzeichen und statistisch signifikante Koeffizienten haben. Das wichtigste Ergebnis der empirischen Untersuchung ist, da\ —h?tte 1972 das Verh?ltnis von Unterstützungszahlungen und Lohnh?he, der Anteil der versicherten Arbeitskr?fte und die Beachtung der Anspruchsvoraussetzungen den Verh?ltnissen im ?Vollbesch?ftigungsjahr? 1955 entsprochen —die Arbeitslosenquote in den Vereinigten Staaten ceteris paribus 5,0 vH statt 5,6 vH betragen h?tte, d. h. sie w?re um etwa 11 vH niedriger gewesen. Ein ?hnliches Resultat wurde bei einer Querschnittsregression für die 48 U.S.-Bundesstaaten erzielt. Die Autoren folgern daraus, da\ diese Ergebnisse es noch dringlicher machen, die ?ffentliche Debatte über ein zweckm?\iges Vollbesch?ftigungsziel für die Geld- und Fiskalpolitik der Vereinigten Staaten wiederaufzunehmen und Fragen hinsichtlich der optimalen H?he der Unterstützungszahlungen und der Beachtung der Anspruchsvoraussetzungen zu stellen.

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Résumé Les effets des bénéfices de ch?mage sur les taux de ch?mage des E.U. —Dans cet article nous développons un modèle de prix théorique qui montre comment la disponibilité des bénéfices d’assurance de ch?mage change la position d’opportunité de revenu vis-à-vis des loisirs avec laquelle on confronte un ouvrier ?moyen? et comment elle a une tendance à stimuler le ch?mage. Nous utilisons le modèle de montrer comment les sauvegardes de marché aussi bien que les sauvegardes institutionelles dans les programmes d’assurance par exemple la nécessité de trouver un nouveau travail, l’existence les périodes d’attente avant de recevoir les bénéfices aussi bien que les co?ts de se soumettre aux règles d’éligibilité reduisent les incitations de ch?mage créées par les paiements de bénéfice. Le modèle théorique nous conduit à la spécification des équations d’estimation. En utilisant les données agrégées des séries de temps d’E.U. de 1951–1972 et une section transversale des états d’ E.U. en 1971 nous trouvons des signes attendus théoriquement et des coefficients statistiquement signifiants des variables indépendantes desquelles nous avons supposé qu’elles sont les variables déterminantes du ch?mage stimulé et cyclique parmi les assurés. Le résultat le plus important de notre étude empirique est que si en 1972 les bénéfices d’assurance de ch?mage relatifs aux salaires, la couverture des ouvriers et le renforcement des règles d’éligibilité auraient été au niveau de 1955, une année de ?plein emploi?, puis le taux de ch?mage d’E.U. ceteris paribus aurait été plut?t 5,0 vis-à-vis le pourcentage actuel de 5,6 ou environ 11 pourcent plus bas. Nous avons obtenu un résultat similaire avec une régression de section transversale des 48 états d’E.U. voisins. Nous conclusons que ces résultats renforcent l’urgence de réouvrir le débat public concernant le but de plein emploi approprié pour les politiques monétaires et fiscales d’E.U. et laissent élever les questions sur les paiements optimum de bénéfice de ch?mage et sur le renforcement des règles d’éligibilité.

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Resumen Los efectos de los beneficios por desempleo sobre las tasas de desempleo en los EEUU. —En este artículo desarrollamos un modelo de teoría de precios que muestra que la disponibilidad de beneficios de seguros de desempleo produce un cambio en la relación de oportunidad entre ocio e ingreso para un trabajador ?promedio? y tiende a inducir desempleo. Se usa el modelo para mostrar cómo el mercado y las garantias institucionales de los programas de seguros, tales como la necesidad de encontrar un nuevo trabajo, la existencia de períodos de espera antes de recibir beneficios y el costo de someterse a las reglas reducen los incentivos en favor de desempleo creados por el pago de beneficios. El modelo teórico lleva a la especificación de ecuaciones estimativas. Usando datos para series de tiempo agregadas de EEUU en el período 1951–1972 y una estimación de sección transversal de los estados norteamericanos en el a?o 1971, encontramos signos teóricamente esperados y coeficientes estadísticamente significativos para las variables independientes, las que hipotéticamente son las determinantes del desempleo inducido y cíclico entre los asegurados. El resultado más importante de nuestro estudio empírico es que si en el a?o 1972 los beneficios del seguro de desempleo en relación a los salarios, la cobertura de trabajadores y la imposition de reglas de aceptación hubieran permanecido en el nivel de 1955, un a?o de ?pleno empleo?, entonces la tasa de desempleo norteamericana, ceteris paribus, hubiera sido 5.0 p.c. en vez de 5.6 p.c., o alrededor de 11 p.c. más baja. Un resultado similar fue obtenido de una regresión de sección transversal de 48 estados norteamericanos contiguos. Concluimos que estos resultados agregan una urgencia adicional a la reapertura de un debate público sobre una meta apropiada de pleno empleo para las políticas monetaria y fiscal de los EEUU y levantan preguntas sobre pagos óptimos de beneficios por desempleo y la imposición de reglas de aceptación.

     

European integration and unemployment

Symes, V. 1995: UNEMPLOYMENT IN EUROPE - PROBLEMS AND POLICIES. London and New York: Routledge, £40.00 cased, £12.99 paper.

Alogoskoufis et al 1995: UNEMPLOYMENT: CHOICES FOR EUROPE. Monitoring European Integration 5, London: Centre for Economic Policy Research, £10.00, paper.

Blanchard et al 1995: SPANISH UNEMPLOYMENT — IS THERE A SOLUTION? London: Centre for Economic Policy Research, £14.95, paper.

Coates, K. and Holland, S. 1995: FULL EMPLOYMENT FOR EUROPE — THE COMMISSION, THE COUNCIL AND THE DEBATE ON EMPLOYMENT IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT 1994-95. Nottingham: Spokesman for European Labour Forum, £9.99, paper.

Local Economy Policy Unit: CAN UNEMPLOYMENT BE CUT BY HALF BY 2000? A DISCUSSION STATEMENT PRESENTED BY THE BERLIN SENATE'S ADVISORY COUNCIL FOR LABOUR MARKET POLICY. London: Local Economic Policy Unit, £12.00, paper.     

The ideology of unemployment

Summary The views on unemployment, its significance, its causes and its possible remedies are manifold and ideologically loaded. The author's plea is for a cool approach, that is, for the building and the testing of empirical models. But he also enumerates a number of ideological elements in the art of model building; in particular the influence of profits is difficult to ascertain quantitively. This leads to beliefs and to room for ideology. The author singles out five elasticities that he considers to be key parameters; research work should concentrate on estimating these five elasticities.     

Overpopulation and unemployment in Zimbabwe

The size of Zimbabwe's African population has grown dramatically over the past 50 years, with 5.7 children on average being born per woman. The following factors are responsible for the rapid population growth in Zimbabwe: the country's economic prosperity during the period of the Central African Federation from 1953 to 1963, and its successful food policy before and after independence; the success of the health system, also in both periods; and the fact that women have not been incorporated into the economy as wage-earners. A brief historical overview is presented, followed by sections on the food policy and health system, reasons for the persistence of large families, and the relationship between wage-earning by women and the birth rate. The author also describes some of the problems caused by overpopulation. Engaging more women in regular wage-earning employment is the key to controlling the birth rate in Zimbabwe. Current government policies encouraging female employment in government services and the economy in general, along with the expansion of contraceptive services, could influence female fertility over the long term.     

白领失业族大扩容

2006年末,《新财经》对北京和上海两地的白领阶层进行问卷调查。结果显示,失业问题已经成为白领关注的首要问题。对此,有业内专家评价,我国第三次失业高峰正在到来,并且将会在2007年达到顶峰。受失业总量和产能过剩的双重影响,第三次失业高峰所波及的范围和影响深度可能比前两次更加严重     

Youth unemployment in Northern Ireland

Nearly one tenth (8 per cent) of each cohort of school leavers in Northern Ireland experience long spells of unemployment and inactivity ("Status 0") between the ages of 16 and 18. This is important because many such young people are likely to end up unemployed and long-term unemployed in later life. In Northern Ireland around 15 per cent of the male workforce is unemployed, and around one half of these have been out of work for more than one year. This paper outlines the nature of the Status 0 experience amongst 16 and 17 year olds in Northern Ireland, and discusses three main aspects of policy which might guide the overall policy response in Northern Ireland and elsewhere.

Firstly, resources should be targeted carefully towards the most “at risk” young people, especially during the early stages of their progression through compulsory education. Secondly, relevant professionals should ensure that the most marginalised young people are not allowed to fall through the nets of mainstream provision and, in particular, every effort should be made to help young people avoid entering Status 0 immediately after leaving school. Thirdly, consideration should be given to the financial incentives faced by training providers in terms of recruiting low achievers who are at most risk of entering Status 0. There is some evidence to suggest that many of the existing incentives in Northern Ireland are inadequate and, in some cases, may exacerbate many of the problems faced by marginalised young people.     

咸阳市失业问题研究

在经济发展的过程中,失业现象总是会存在,但过高的失业率会带来一系列社会问题。咸阳市位于陕西省八百里秦川腹地,紧邻西安,经济发展具有一定的优势,但近几年失业问题也日趋严重。导致咸阳市失业人员迅速增长、失业压力大的原因既与我国的具体国情和近几年经济发展相关,也有咸阳市的失业管理体制因素。解决咸阳市的失业问题也要从发展经济和完善管理体制两个方面着手。     

现行农村经营体制存在的问题与改革探索

下岗失业问题已成为全国关注的焦点。在认识我国存在失业的基础上 ,承认市场经济下失业的必然性 ,充分认识和利用适度失业的积极作用 ,对于资源优化配置 ,提高劳动者及全社会素质 ,促进经济和社会健康稳定发展意义重大。     

Hysteresis in unemployment in the Netherlands

Summary The Dutch labour market situation in the eighties can be characterized by the hysteresis phenomenon, i. e. a rising natural rate of unemployment as a result of the rise of actual unemployment in the past. It appears that the hysteresis phenomenon is more important in The Netherlands than in France and the United States and as relevant as in Germany and the United Kingdom. Because of the steep rise of unemployment in The Netherlands the natural rate of unemployment may have risen more than in Other European countries. As a consequence, the wage depressing effect of the current high unemployment rate has diminished rapidly.I thank J.C. Siebrand, D.P. Broer and C.B. Mulder for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

Current unemployment of graduates in China

It is a common phenomenon of current unemployment, especially, among graduates. Through comparison between the historical record and nowadays about unemployment, the conclusion is that each epoch has its unique characters, as well as some uniform points. To realize the issue distinctly, several aspects should focus on： the situation about historical and current unemployment respectively, the reason why it occurs, the negative effects and the solutions.     

白领失业之三大怪象

以往人们认为高学历、地区经济发达、工作经验丰富可以保证其远离失业。但如今,现实情况却恰恰相反,白领失业潮似乎已经来临