The role of purchasing in countertrade

This paper examines countertrade with a particular emphasis on the involvement of UK companies. A review of the literature shows that whilst international trade organisations adopt a negative attitude to countertrade, which creates difficulties for research into the subject, substantial benefits may be obtained by both parties to countertrade deals. The results of empirical research show that UK companies involved in countertrade play a largely reactive role, which mirrors the approach of UK government agencies. It is argued that purchasing can play a significant role in proactive countertrade through identifying appropriate sources, effective negotiation and disposal of goods to existing suppliers.     

Gatt regulation of countertrade: Issues and prospects

In light of persistent hard currency shortages, an increasing number of countries and firms resort to countertrade. Although this practice has the potential to become a major threat to the world trade framework, it is currently not specifically addressed by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). From the context of the upcoming international trade negotiations, this article explores the extent to which countertrade practices are, and should be, incorporated into the GATT framework. It analyzes current GATT jurisdiction, presents policy considerations in favor of and against the inclusion of countertrade into the GATT, and addresses practical considerations to be kept in mind during negotiations on this issue.     

The trade comovement puzzle and the margins of international trade

Countries that trade more with each other tend to have more strongly correlated business cycles. Yet, traditional international business cycle models predict a much weaker link between trade and business cycle comovement. We propose that fluctuations in the number of varieties embedded in trade flows may drive the observed comovement by increasing the correlation among trading partners' aggregate productivity. Our hypothesis is that business cycles should be more strongly correlated between countries that trade a wider variety of goods. We find empirical support for this hypothesis. After decomposing trade into its extensive and intensive margins, we find that the extensive margin explains most of the trade–productivity and trade–output comovement. This result is striking because the extensive margin accounts for only a fourth of the variability in total trade. We then develop a two-country model with heterogeneous firms, endogenous entry, and fixed export costs, in which the aggregate productivity correlation increases with trade in varieties. A numerical exercise shows that our proposed mechanism increases business cycle synchronization compared with the levels predicted by traditional models.     

Countertrade with developing countries: New opportunities for North-South trade?

Unconventional forms of international trade (such as counterpurchase, compensation deals and barter) have assumed rapidly growing importance, especially in many developing countries, as a consequence of the fall in commodity prices and the worsening of international debt problems since the oil price increases of 1973–74 and 1979. By using these trading methods countries expect to be able to ensure a continuation of the urgently needed flow of imports, open up new markets for surplus products and bring about greater export diversification as between both regions and products. The following article therefore focuses on the countertrade of Third World countries, both among themselves and with industrialised countries.     

Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?

Recent empirical research finds that pairs of countries with stronger trade linkages tend to have more highly correlated business cycles. We assess whether the standard international business cycle framework can replicate this intuitive result. We employ a three-country model with transportation costs. We simulate the effects of increased goods market integration under two asset market structures, complete markets and international financial autarky. Our main finding is that under both asset market structures the model can generate stronger correlations for pairs of countries that trade more, but the increased correlation falls far short of the empirical findings. Even when we control for the fact that most country-pairs are small with respect to the rest-of-the-world, the model continues to fall short. We also conduct additional simulations that allow for increased trade with the third country or increased TFP shock comovement to affect the country-pair's business cycle comovement. These simulations are helpful in highlighting channels that could narrow the gap between the empirical findings and the predictions of the model.     

Comparative advantage,service trade,and global imbalances

The large current account deficit of the U.S. is the result of a large deficit in the goods balance and a modest surplus in the service balance. The opposite is true for Japan, Germany, and China. Moreover, I document the emergence from the mid-nineties of a strong negative relation between specialization in the export of services and the current account balances of a large sample of OECD and developing countries. Starting from these new stylized facts, I propose in this paper a service hypothesis for global imbalances, a new explanation based on the interplay between the U.S. comparative advantage in services and the asymmetric trade liberalization process in goods trade versus service trade that took place starting in the mid-nineties. First, I use a structural gravity model to show that service trade liberalization lagged behind goods trade liberalization, and I quantify the extent of this asymmetry. Second, I show that a simple two-period model can rationalize the emergence of current account deficits in the presence of such asymmetric liberalization. The key inter-temporal mechanism is the asymmetric timing of trade policies, which affects saving decisions. Finally, I explore the quantitative relevance of this explanation for global imbalances. I introduce trade costs in an otherwise standard 2-sector 2-country international real business cycle model. When fed with the asymmetric trade liberalization path found in the data, the model generates a trade deficit of about 5% of GDP. I conclude that the service hypothesis for global imbalances is quantitatively relevant.     

Internationalization of the video industry: Unresolved policy and regulatory issues

The development of new technologies and the resulting restructuring of the international entertainment industry have accentuated the uniqueness of some mass media products, in particular film and television products. While the recently approved GATT agreement still lumps most forms of video products together as standard goods, the growing intangible/service aspect and the heightened concern for the cultural influence of video products call for nonstandard treatment. This article explores the industry's unique features and discusses characteristics that may justify a proposal for a specific sector agreement under GATT. The central question is whether video should be considered part of the larger mass media industry that includes cable, VCR, printed products/services, broadcasting and film. The authors call for the adoption of a real value perspective, whereby video products can be both goods and services, and explain the international trade implications of such a perspective.     

Non-competitive imports and gains from trade

The paper argues for the explicit inclusion in international trade models of goods which cannot be produced in the importing country. Non-competitive goods require a product-requisite factor which is not universally available. International trade in these goods generates much greater per-unit gains from trade than trade in ordinary goods which can be produced in both (all) countries. Omission of these goods from models of international trade leads to the possibility of a gross underestimation of the difference between autarkic and with-trade income levels. The omission of these goods also neglects some dimensions of policy which are important in the real world, such as sanctions.     

Market Structure and Market Access

We explore an issue at the nexus of domestic competition policy and international trade, the interaction between goods trade and market power in domestic trade and distribution sectors. We examine the effect of variations in conditions of domestic competition in services on trade volumes in goods in the cases of both linear and nonlinear import demand, including standard form CES‐based gravity models of bilateral trade flows. Theory suggests a set of linkages between service‐sector pricing and goods trade supported by econometrics involving imports of 22 OECD countries vis‐a‐vis 69 exporters. Competition in distribution services affects the volume of trade in goods. Additionally, because of interaction between tariffs and pricing, the market structure of the domestic service sector becomes increasingly important as tariffs are reduced. Indeed, depending on the degree of competition, market access concessions on tariffs may be effectively undone in some cases by changes in margins. For exporters, we find that service competition in destination markets matters most for exporters from smaller, poorer countries. Our results also suggest that while negotiated agreements leading to cross‐border services liberalisation may boost goods trade as well, they may also lead to a fall in goods trade when such liberalisation involves FDI leading to increased service sector concentration.     

International trade in durable goods: Understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elasticities

Data for OECD countries document: 1. imports and exports are about three times as volatile as GDP; 2. imports and exports are pro-cyclical, and positively correlated with each other; 3. net exports are counter-cyclical. Standard models fail to replicate the behavior of imports and exports, though they can match net exports relatively well. Inspired by the fact that a large fraction of international trade is in durable goods, we propose a two-country two-sector model in which durable goods are traded across countries. Our model can match the business cycle statistics on the volatility and comovement of the imports and exports relatively well. The model is able to match many dimensions of the data, which suggests that trade in durable goods may be an important element in open-economy macro models.     

国际服务贸易比较优势与自由化理论及其启示

国际服务贸易的发展和国际贸易组织关于国际服务贸易问题的谈判,引发了国外理论界对H-O-S模型对于国际服务贸易是否具有适应性的广泛讨论.许多学者认为,H-O-S模型对于国际服务贸易同样适应.他们讨论中提出的论点和论据,为发展中国家发展国际服务贸易的政策选择提供了许多有益的启迪.     

中国跨国企业申请国际专利的策略

国际专利不仅是跨国企业在国际竞争中取得竞争优势的工具之一,同时也是打击竞争对手和防御侵权指控的重要手段.中国企业在实施“走出去”战略的过程中,应借鉴其他国家的做法,充分运用国际专利制度,实施国际专利策略,防御竞争对手的侵权行为,不断提高际竞争优势.美国是中国的第二大贸易伙伴,中美两国的产品互补性较大,中国跨国企业应主动运用美国的专利制度,跨国申请美国专利,以保护其合法权益并不断巩固和扩大美国市场.     

Buyer-seller relationships in international trade: Evidence from U.S. States' exports and business-class travel

International trade has become increasingly dependent on the transmission of complex information, often realized via face-to-face communication. This paper provides novel evidence for the importance of in-person business meetings in international trade. Interactions among trade partners entail a fixed cost of trade, but at the same time they generate relationship capital, which adds bilateral specific value to the traded products. Differences in the face-to-face communication intensity of traded goods, bilateral travel costs and foreign market size determine the optimal amount of interaction between trade partners. Using U.S. state level data on international business-class air travel as a measure of in-person business meetings, I find robust evidence that the demand for business-class air travel is directly related to volume and composition of exports in differentiated products. I also find that trade flows in R&D intensive manufactures and goods facing contractual frictions are most dependent on face-to-face meetings. The econometric identification exploits the cross-state variation in bilateral exports and business-class air travelers by foreign country and time period, circumventing any spurious correlation induced by cross-country differences driving aggregate travel and trade patterns.     

The development of international business in Africa (1947–1997)

The genesis of international business in Africa from 1947 to 1996 is traced to colonial times. The article analyzes the dynamics and observes that international business in Africa witnessed growth but has not meaningfully influenced Africa's general economic development because of constraints: poor infrastructure, lack of maintenance culture, inadequate funding, debt burden and overemphasis on export of raw materials instead of manufactured goods. The article suggests placing a greater emphasis on the development of intermediate and capital goods industries and granting debt relief to all African countries as a means of further promoting international business entente in Africa.     

Non-traded goods and optimal trade policy in a cash-in-advance economy

This paper develops a standard trade model of a small open monetary economy with two traded and one non-traded goods. Money is introduced through a generalized cash-in-advance constraint where the share of goods purchases that must be made using cash, varies across sectors. We find that free trade may be harmful so that alternative policy instruments may be considered to improve welfare. In addition, we study and compare the optimal tariff formula and the optimal consumption tax structure. In the presence of a monetary distortion of the non-traded good, a consumption tax may not Pareto dominate a tariff although the latter bears an additional production burden. This corroborates the theory of second best.     

Firms' entry,monetary policy and the international business cycle

This paper proposes a two-country monetary model with firm entry as a means for alleviating the comovement puzzles in international business cycle models. It shows that business formation can generate fluctuations in output, employment, investment and trade flows close to those in the data while at the same time providing positive international comovements. Simulations show that the presence of imported investment goods is essential for replicating these facts.     

渤海通道推动商品贸易发展的积极作用

实现商品的高效运输是推动商贸繁荣的重要环节,渤海通道降低了商品流通成本,提高了流通效率,推动了地区商贸经济的发展。渤海通道的建立形成了新的南北交通大动脉,弱化了环渤海区域的行政壁垒,便利了区域商品的自由流通,推动了南北经贸的繁荣,加强了东北亚地区的经济交流与合作,推动了国际贸易发展。     

中国自由贸易试验区的改革深化与自由贸易港的建立

中共十九大为中国自由贸易试验区下一步的发展指明了方向。中国自由贸易试验区在经济市场化方面取得重大进展,颁布了一系列法律规范,旨在营造国际化、法制化和市场化的营商环境,但在开放方面还不够深入和系统化,因此十九大为自由贸易试验区的进一步发展提出了更高目标,指明了新的方向。我们建议把每个自由贸易区分为海关监管的自由贸易区和非海关监管的改革试验区。自由贸易区把成熟的经验推广到改革试验区,改革试验区再把经验推向全国。所有的自由贸易试验区采用不同模式,包括货物贸易和服务贸易自由贸易区、直接投资与金融自由贸易区和金融中心自由贸易区等。     

FDI in post-production services and product market competition

Post-production services, such as sales, distribution, and maintenance, comprise a crucial element of business activity. We explore an international duopoly model in which a foreign firm has the option of outsourcing post-production services to its domestic rival or providing those services by establishing its own facilities through FDI. We demonstrate that trade liberalization in goods may hurt domestic consumers and lower world welfare, and that the negative welfare impacts are turned into positive ones if service FDI is also liberalized. This finding yields important policy implications, given the reality that the progress of liberalization in service sectors is still limited.     

国际贸易冲击与中国经济的周期波动

国际经济波动对我国经济周期的影响主要是通过国际贸易这个渠道实现的,本文在对我国对外贸易波动的特征及与经济周期相关性进行分析的基础之上,通过国际贸易乘数效应具体分析了国际贸易冲击对经济周期波动的影响,其结论表明国际贸易冲击对我国的经济周期波动产生了重要的作用和影响,出口每波动1%,会引发GDP波动0.25个百分点左右,随着我国对外贸易的快速增长,贸易波动对宏观经济的影响会进一步增加。