总供给冲击、总需求冲击与我国经济波动关系的实证研究

本文利用1994年1季度至2012年2季度产出和价格的季度数据,建立了基于长期约束的SVAR模型,用以分析总供给冲击和总需求冲击对我国经济波动的影响,考察经济增长和价格对总供给冲击和总需求冲击的动态响应。实证研究表明,总供给冲击和总需求冲击标准差均较大,而且总需求冲击波动性要大于总供给冲击的波动性,说明我国经济在样本数据期内存在波动性。脉冲响应分析发现,总供给冲击对于产出具有正向长期趋势,而总需求冲击对于产出具有正向短期影响;对于价格而言,总供给冲击对价格产生负向长期影响,而总需求冲击对价格产生正向长期影响。2011年以来我国经济增速持续放缓,主要在于供求冲击为负,供给负冲击更为显著。     

Oil shocks and external balances

We provide estimates of the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of oil exporters' and oil importers' external balances, including the oil trade balance, the non-oil trade balance, the current account, capital gains, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA). First, we show that the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the non-oil trade balance. Our results provide evidence of an intermediate degree of international financial integration. Second, we document the presence of large and systematic valuation effects in response to these shocks. Valuation effects overall tend to cushion the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the NFA positions of oil exporters and oil importers. Third, we quantify the overall importance of global business cycle demand shocks as well as oil-market specific demand and supply shocks for external balances.     

CHANGING PATTERNS OF REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE: The Case of Canada Under NAFTA

Recently, the issue of regional and international trade flows has attracted increased attention. Papers by Helliwell and McCallum have stressed the importance of national borders in determining the nature of Canadian economic activity even when adjustments are made for distance and trade barriers. This article, using Provincial Economic Accounts data, estimates an almost ideal demand system to explain the interprovincial and international flow of goods, accounting for changes in relative prices and other factors that have arisen since the formation of NAFTA. The results allow conclusions to be drawn with respect to the importance of geographical proximity to the U.S. border, the influence of price and income elasticities, and the nature of the industrial/resource endowment mix of the province. The relevant elasticities allow for the examination changes to the internal and external trade patterns and to the differences which have developed in the various regions of Canada.     

Terms-of-Trade and Trade Balance: Some Empirical Evidence of Asian Economies

This study examines the impact of terms-of-trade and oil price on trade balance in Asian economies. Generally, the results of the normalized cointegrating vectors show that the impact of terms-of-trade on trade balance is different across economies. An increase in oil price or permanent oil price will lead to a decrease in terms-of-trade while the impact of an increase in temporary oil price on terms-of-trade is ambiguous. Generally, terms-of-trade, domestic demand, foreign demand, and oil price (permanent oil price, temporary oil price) are important in the determination of trade balance in the short run and long run.     

The role of expenditure switching in the global imbalance adjustment

In theory, nominal exchange rate movements can lead to “expenditure switching” when they generate changes in the relative prices of goods across countries. This paper explores whether the expenditure-switching role of exchange rates has changed in the current episode of significant global imbalances. We develop a multi-sector two-country model for the United States and the G6 countries, with the rest of the world captured by exogenous price and demand shocks, and estimate the model over two sub-samples, which cover the periods before and after the early 1990s. Our results indicate that both U.S. imports and exports have become much less responsive to exchange rate movements in recent years, mainly due to changes in firms' pricing behavior and global trade pattern. These findings suggest that the exchange rate would have to move by a much larger amount now than in the 1970s and 1980s to reduce the U.S. trade deficit by a given amount.     

A NOTE ON TRADE ELASTICITIES IN ASIAN COUNTRIES

This article estimates the price and income elasticities of import and export demands for India, Japan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Thailand using annual time series data. Both price and income elasticities of import demand are found to be in the inelastic range for all five countries. Export demand is found to be price elastic for Japan, the Philippines, and Thailand and price inelastic for India and Sri Lanka. Export demand is found to be income elastic for Japan but not for the other four countries. The Marshall-Lerner-Robinson condition states that a devaluation improves the balance of trade position only if the sum of the absolute values of price elasticity of import demand and the price elasticity of export demand is greater than one. This condition is met for India, Japan, the Philippines, and Thailand but not for Sri Lanka.     

Co-movement among oil,stock, bond,and housing markets: An analysis of U.S., Asian,and European economies

This study explores the co-movement among oil and the stock, bond, and housing markets of the U.S. and major developed countries across Europe and Asia. The results indicate that oil is long-run integrated with each asset class, and that the extent of convergence has increased after the onset of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis (GFC). Moreover, oil contributes most heavily toward the common trends, implying that oil is the “leader” sector that drives each asset class toward long-run equilibrium relationships. Short-run analyses indicate that oil shocks induce a negative response in stock and housing returns and a positive reaction in bond returns, showing a tendency to become more intense and persistent after the GFC. When oil shocks are disentangled, the results indicate that supply and demand have heterogeneous effects on the three global asset classes. Over the long-run, demand shocks make the most significant contribution to the common trends and “lead” the other asset classes, whereas supply shocks have either a negligible or a weaker impact. Over the short-run, demand shocks positively impact the stock and housing markets and negatively impact bonds, while supply shocks induce negative and weaker impacts on all three asset classes.     

Oil and the economy: evolution not revolution

Oil price shocks have had significant effects on the U.S. economy, keeping energy supply, energy policy, and energy security always in focus. The U.S. energy industry has become more efficient and productive, with increased output despite a smaller energy sector. Since the oil price shocks of the 70s, both the impact of oil price shocks and the way we think about them have changed. The impact of an oil price shock on GDP and core inflation is much smaller in magnitude than in the past and depends on the source of the price shock. The recent shale boom in the U.S. has significantly increased oil production to a record high. The short-cycle supply response of shale producers to price changes have trimmed the peaks and troughs of oil prices in the medium term. The shale boom has lowered our dependence on foreign oil and made us less vulnerable to a classic oil supply shock, but we need to contemplate the vulnerabilities that arise from the externalities of our energy use, which will become more critical as we go forward.     

The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade

By specifying a model of differential risk-bearing by import demand and export supply sides of the market for traded goods, the theoretical impact of exchange risk on both equilibrium prices and quantities is analyzed. For several empirical cases of 1965–1975 U.S. and German trade it is found that exchange rate uncertainty has had a significant impact on prices but no significant effect on the volume of trade. These price effects support previous survey results on the currency denomination of export contracts, namely that with the exception of some U.S. imports, most trade is largely denominated in the exporter's currency.     

On the Optimality of a GCC Monetary Union: Structural VAR,Common Trends,and Common Cycles Evidence

The suitability of the proposed monetary union among the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is examined. The authors identify the underlying structural shocks that these economies are subject to and assess the extent to which the shocks are symmetric. Alternatively, the authors test for common trends and common business cycles among the GCC economies. They find that while the transitory demand shocks are typically symmetric, the permanent supply shocks are asymmetric. Furthermore, they do not find synchronous long‐run and short‐run movements in output. Despite the progress that has been made in terms of integration, the findings indicate that the conditions for forming a GCC monetary union have not as yet been met.     

中美纺织品与服装贸易:从MFA到ATC——基于总量、价格和质量的分析

本文力图通过描述性统计和构建评价指数的方法,分别从贸易总量、进口价格和贸易品质量的角度,考察《纺织品与服装协议》在过渡期内对中美纺织品与服装贸易的影响。结论认为,2002年协议第三阶段的实施是两国纺织与服装产品贸易发展的分水岭;全面取消配额导致了进口价格和贸易品质量不同程度的下降。对此,文章有针对性地提出了今后合理应对中美纺织品贸易争端的若干政策建议。     

EXPLAINING ASYMMETRY IN THE U.S. MERCHANDISE AND SERVICE ACCOUNT BALANCE: Does the Service Sector Hold the Key to the U.S. Current Account Woes?

The U.S. economy has experienced two noteworthy structural changes in recent years. Externally, there has been a growing deficit in the merchandise account along with a simultaneously rising service account surplus. And domestically, the GDP share of the service sectors has been growing at a faster rate relative to the goods sectors. The objective of this article is to test the proposition that much of the asymmetry in the relative performance of the merchandise and the service accounts can be explained (1) in terms of income and price elasticity differentials and (2) in terms of relative growth of the service sectors. Results from estimated import and export demand functions for merchandise and service trades and from sectoral analysis of the U.S. economy seem to support the above proposition. The main policy implications are that: (1) domestically, the United States should facilitate current sectoral transformation by eliminating market distortions and rigidities and (2) externally, it should expand on the initiatives taken during the Uruguay Round and drive the WTO toward a full liberalization of trade in services.     

Convergence of shocks and trade in the enlarged European Union

This paper explores the relation between trade flows and cross-country symmetry of supply and demand shocks using data from the EU-27 countries. Increased bilateral trade intensity is found to have a positive impact on the correlation of both demand and supply shocks. Intra-industry trade is found to be positively linked to correlations of supply-side shocks but negatively linked to correlations of demand shocks. Our results thus provide support for the argument that aggregate demand spillovers and intra-industry trade, rather than specialization, dominate in the process through which trade flows affect the cross-country transmission of shocks in Europe. At the same time, our estimates suggest that monetary-policy convergence in Europe (the circulation of the euro), while having increased symmetry of supply-side shocks, has had no direct favourable impact on symmetry of demand shocks. By contrast, the process of fiscal-policy convergence is found to have resulted in more correlated demand shocks across the EU member states.     

On the international transmission of technology shocks

Using vector autoregressions on U.S. time series and an aggregate of industrialized countries, we find that technology shocks appreciate the terms of trade and lower the trade balance; they induce an ‘S’-shaped cross-correlation function for both variables (the S-curve). In calibrating a prototypical international business cycle model under complete and incomplete financial markets, we find two distinct sets of parameter values. While both model specifications deliver the S-curve, the underlying transmission mechanism of technology shocks is fundamentally different. Most importantly, only in the incomplete markets economy the terms of trade appreciate and thus amplify the relative wealth effects of technology shocks—as suggested by the evidence.     

自由贸易协定原产地规则调整的经济效应评估——以《美墨加协定》汽车原产地规则为例

本文使用2011—2019年美国汽车市场数据,测度了1354款车型的需求价格弹性和替代弹性,在识别了原产地规则限制度对合规车型售价影响的基础上,反事实模拟测算了《美墨加协定》汽车原产地规则调整的经济效应。研究发现:(1)美国汽车市场上各款车型的需求价格弹性和替代弹性是异质性的;(2)以北美区域价值含量为代理变量的原产地规则与美国汽车市场上合规车型售价呈正向相关关系,与不合规车型售价呈U型关系;(3)《美墨加协定》汽车原产地规则限制度的提升,会对需要调整采购决策以继续合规的车型销量产生负向冲击,其他车型受市场替代效应的影响,其销量有所增加;(4)原产地规则调整降低了对北美自由贸易区外汽车中间品的需求,提升了对区内汽车中间品的需求。     

THE RELATIVE EFFICIENCY OF OWNERSHIP STRUCTURES AND INTRA-FIRM TRADE

This article conducts an analysis of the relative efficiency of integrated and non-integrated ownership structures in the presence of trade in intermediate inputs. It is shown that vertical multinationals (integrated ownership) are more efficient when the two vertically related firms are asymmetric in their production costs, R&D, and reservation prices. In the presence of symmetric parametric conditions, non-integration (with inter-firm trade) is more efficient. Empirical analysis of cross-industry variations in the relative importance of intra-firm exports, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for U.S. FDI abroad, confirms the theoretical predictions of the model.     

The J-Curve: Evidence from Industry-Level Data Between the U.S. and Indonesia

Empirical studies on the impact of currency devaluation or depreciation on the trade balance still continue to occupy the literature. These studies have evolved from using aggregate to disaggregated data. The findings, however, have been mixed. Previous research using aggregate trade flows of Indonesia with the rest of the world or bilateral data between Indonesia and the U.S. as one of its major trading partners found no significant relation between rupiah-dollar rate and Indonesia’s bilateral trade balances. In this article, we disaggregate the trade flows between Indonesia and the U.S. by commodity and show that the trade balances of at least nine out of 23 industries react to exchange rate changes favorably in the long run.     

美元特权对美国贸易逆差的影响探析

美元特权的形成使贸易逆差成为输出美元的主要途径,并对贸易逆差起到了助长作用,集中表现在美元特权使美国维持着巨额贸易逆差而不受外汇储备短缺的制约和金融危机的威胁,却使其他追求美元储备的国家依靠贸易顺差和过度储蓄来摆脱不利处境,从而从供给和需求两个方面推动了美国贸易逆差的持续扩大。但贸易逆差的继续发展和未来的调整势必会影响美元特权地位的巩固,使世界经济特别是发展中国家的国际经济活动面临极大的风险。     

THE CASUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR OF THE UNITED STATES

The impact of US trade barriers and demand factors on import prices of Canadian softwood lumber is examined using time series analysis of quarterly data from 1989–2006. The results suggest that the previous quarter import price of softwood lumber, US producer price, and US housing starts, and the current quarter US producer price of softwood lumber have significant impacts on the import price of Canadian softwood lumber with 0.69, 1.92, 0.10 and ?1.64 as respective elasticities. Among trade barriers examined, a softwood quota raises the import price but a high tariff lowers it.     

An Alternative Model of U.S. Clothing Expenditures: Application of Cointegration Techniques

In this paper, an Error Correction Mechanism model of U.S. clothing expenditures for the period 1929–1987 is estimated using recent developments in modeling nonstationary variables. Using clothing expenditures as an example, the pitfalls of conventional modeling of nonstationary variables and the advantages of a new modeling procedure that takes into account the properties of data for valid inference about population parameters are pointed out. The basic findings obtained by estimating an Error Correction Mechanism model of clothing expenditures are (1) the demand for clothing is income inelastic both in the short run and in the long run; (2) the price elasticity of demand is unitary in the long run but greater than unity in the short run; (3) an increase in the unemployment rate reduces U.S. clothing expenditures both in the short run and the long run; and (4) an increase in the number of elderly (above the age of 65) increases clothing expenditures in the short run and reduces expenditures in the long run. However, the shortrun impact of an increase in the elderly population on clothing expenditures is statistically insignificant.