碳边界调节措施对中国出口产品影响评估

虽然2012年后全球温室气体减排机制尚未达成,但各国纷纷制定气候和能源法案以促进减排。为维持国内企业竞争力,防止碳泄露和能源密集型产业转移,部分国家可能会实施单边贸易措施。文章主要结合美国相关法案,作出合理政策假设,利用IPCC二氧化碳排放计算方法和投入产出模型,考察潜在碳边界调节措施对中国出口影响。结果发现,中国整体出口受碳成本上升影响有限,但基本钢铁产业、化学制造产业和非矿物制造产业的出口产品受冲击较大。     

Revisiting national border effects in foreign trade in goods of Canadian provinces

A significant body of empirical studies demonstrates sizable national border effects in foreign trade of Canadian provinces throughout the 1980s and 1990s. This paper revisits and expands the scope of the border effects analysis by estimating the border effect in trade with US states as well as countries in the European Union (EU) and the G-20 using more recent data from 2001–10. Furthermore, we perform the Blinder–Oaxaca nonlinear decomposition to decompose the border effects into various components, including the transaction costs, the tariff and non-tariff measures, and the unexplained component. Results from the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood model show that, compared to existing estimates from the 1980s and 1990s, the size of the border effect in trade between Canadian provinces and US states has declined. The border effects for Canada–EU and Canada–G-20 bilateral trade flows sit at somewhat elevated levels. About a third of the border effects in overall trade with EU and G-20 countries can be attributed to the variables related to transaction costs in foreign trade. While the significance of tariffs has declined, the prevalence of non-tariff measures seems to be on a rise. That said, we find that the welfare-changing measures combined – tariff and non-tariff measures – play a limited role in explaining the border effects in comparison with the role of transaction costs and the unexplained component.     

New Geography of M&As: A Framing Device of Firms' Strategies

The emergence of new economic centers is changing the competitive scenario. The diffusion of power across an increasingly broad range of countries has opened a window of opportunity for firms from China that want to compete globally. These firms understand their options in exploiting economic geography, and they frequently use cross‐border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) to penetrate developed countries. The United States and Europe are becoming natural destinations for such investments because of their huge markets and leading‐edge technologies. This article provides a “framing device” for firms’ strategies in a multipolar world. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The effect of border barriers to services trade on goods trade

This paper has two objectives (a) to introduce border policy-induced barriers (PIBs) to services trade and (b) analyse the impact of border PIBs in services sectors on goods trade. The World Input-Output Database covering 43 countries is used over the period 2000–14. A three-stage analysis is employed. The measures of bilateral services trade barriers calculated in each services sector in the first stage are decomposed into its cultural/geographic and policy-induced parts in the second stage. Border PIBs to services trade are used in the structural gravity estimations of bilateral goods trade in the final stage. The results demonstrate significant and robust adverse effects of barriers to services trade on goods trade. When the level of development is taken into consideration, there are marked differences in the impact of these barriers on goods trade.     

黑龙江省边境小额贸易发展对策研究

近几年来,国家和黑龙江省政府实施了一系列切合实际的措施,有效地遏制了黑龙江省边境小额贸易额的下滑和大起大落态势,但在边境小额贸易发展中还存在很多不稳定因素,其发展前景仍不容盲目乐观。虽然黑龙江省发展边境小额贸易有独特的地缘和交通优势、历史人文优势、公共关系优势、边境口岸通关优势、经济互补性优势、贸易结算优势,但同时存在着出口商品结构单一、出口商品科技含量低、质量差、＂灰色清关＂影响边境小额贸易长远发展、中俄两国差异影响边境小额贸易的正常发展等问题,黑龙江省应发挥传统商品优势,完善进出口商品结构,边境小额贸易企业应实施名牌战略,提高产品的科技含量,积极应对边境小额贸易中的＂灰色清关＂,建立健全相关机构,保障边境小额贸易有序发展。     

Capital-flow management measures: What are they good for?

Are capital controls and macroprudential measures related to international exposures successful in achieving their objectives? Assessing their effectiveness is complicated by selection bias; countries which change their capital-flow management measures (CFMs) often share specific characteristics and are responding to changes in variables that the CFMs are intended to influence. This paper addresses these challenges by using a propensity-score matching methodology. We also create a new database with detailed information on weekly changes in controls on capital inflows, capital outflows, and macroprudential measures related to international transactions from 2009 to 2011 for 60 countries. Results show that these macroprudential measures can significantly reduce some measures of financial fragility. Most CFMs do not significantly affect other key targets, however, such as exchange rates, capital flows, interest-rate differentials, inflation, equity indices, and different volatilities. One exception is that removing controls on capital outflows may reduce real exchange rate appreciation. Therefore, certain CFMs can be effective in accomplishing specific goals—but most popular measures are not “good for” accomplishing their stated aims.     

Knobe,Side Effects,and the Morally Good Business

The International Federation of Accountants (IFAC) has recently issued a revised “Code of Ethics for Professional Accountants” (IFAC Code). As a requirement for membership in IFAC, a national accounting organization must either adopt the IFAC Code or adopt a code of conduct that is not “less stringent” than the IFAC Code. In this paper, we examine the extent to which 158 national accounting organizations have adopted the revised IFAC Code as their own. Our results indicate that 80 of our sample organizations have adopted the IFAC Code (sometimes with minor modifications), while the remaining 78 opted not to utilize the model IFAC Code. We then test the hypothesis that national accounting organizations in lower income economies would be less likely to adopt the IFAC Code than those in high income economies. Our results do not support the hypothesis. We argue that one potential reason for such a finding is that adopting the IFAC Code may be a cost effective means of adopting a code of ethics for organizations in lower income economies.     

WTO框架下欧盟知识产权边境措施适用于过境货物之合法性分析

当今,不少国家或地区的知识产权执法权限日益扩张,并与贸易自由、尤其是过境自由的法律制度相冲突。这一冲突近年来在针对过境货物的知识产权边境措施中凸显,包括荷兰在内的欧盟国家频繁扣押过境货物,其中不少涉及我国出口的货物。2010年5月,印度就仿制药扣押案正式通过WTO向欧盟提起磋商。2011年7月印度和欧盟已达成了一项临时性谅解协议,①但这只是暂时解决了欧盟与印度之间针对通用名药的纷争,远未解决欧盟边境措施本身的合法性问题。本文旨在研究欧盟的立法和司法实践,分析其在GATT和TRIPS协定项下的合法性,并简述我国的应对措施。     

Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol on climate change obliges the industrialized countries to initiate the international effort of abating anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. If such an initiative is to be taken, the associated competitive effects may lead to significant relocation of developed countries' energy-intensive production. This paper examines this issue. I adopt an oligopolistic structure combined with increasing returns to scale production technologies to represent the strategic interaction among the firms producing energy-intensive products. This representation is then embedded within a multi-regional computable general equilibrium model, which in turn is used for quantifying these relocational effects. The results suggest that significant relocation of energy-intensive industries away from the OECD may occur, depending on the type of market structure, with leakage rates as high as 130%, in which case GHG control policies in the industrialized countries actually lead to higher global emissions.     

碳贸易保护和WTO在应对气候变化全球合作中的作用

经济危机使全球贸易保护主义迅速抬头。负有量化减排义务的发达国家越来越多地以应对气候变化、防止碳泄露为由,试图通过贸易限制手段维持自身的竞争力不因减排所导致的成本上升而下降,碳贸易保护初露端倪。贸易与气候变化的关系成为WTO不得不面对的问题,其在应对气候变化全球合作中的特定作用日益显现。     

China's one belt one road initiative: The impact of trade facilitation versus physical infrastructure on exports

The One Belt One Road (OBOR) project is perhaps China's most significant international relations initiative in recent times. It is based on openness, harmony, inclusivity, mutual benefit and market operations and aims to connect the economically vibrant East Asia and the developed Europe by land and by sea, and in the process, it brings growth and development to tens of countries along the modern Silk routes. In this paper, we compare the impact of the main initiatives of OBOR, namely enhancements in physical infrastructure and improvements in border administration, on the trade of countries that have signed on to this project, especially countries along the six economic corridors. We find overwhelming evidence that shows improvements in border administration has the greatest impact on exports of corridor countries. Although physical infrastructure is important for trade, the Chinese government should place equal attention to improvements in trade facilitation to ensure trade routes operate seamlessly across the various corridors.     

Reluctance to use technology‐related products: Development of a technophobia scale

Many consumers feel overloaded by the complexity of technology‐related products. This renders consumers less open to them and may even lead to an aversion or anxiety toward these kind of products: in other words, so‐called technophobia. This article aims to establish an instrument that measures technophobia. Following a literature review and in‐depth interviews with experts, a scale is developed and tested in seven different countries (United States, United Kingdom, France, Spain, India, Mexico, and Austria; total sample size = 1,503 respondents). The three underlying dimensions of the scale—“Personal Failure,” “Human vs. Machine Ambiguity,” and “Convenience”—are discussed, and future research avenues to strengthen the cross‐national usability of the scale are identified. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Impact of Trade Facilitation on Parts and Components Trade

This article utilizes data from seventy-seven countries over the period 2004–07 in a gravity trade model to examine the impact of four dimensions of trade facilitation—physical infrastructure, information and communication technology, business environment, and border efficiency—on parts and components and final goods trade for the machinery and transport equipment sector. The results show that the effect of importers’ overall trade facilitation measures is stronger for promoting parts and components than for final goods trade. Among the four dimensions, border efficiency has the largest impact on trade flows for this sector, and the effect of exporter and particularly importers’ border efficiency is important for parts and components, as compared to final goods trade.     

中国—东盟自贸区建成后对广西边境贸易发展的影响及对策研究——以百色边境贸易为例

2010年中国—东盟自贸区建成后,广西边境贸易发展面临良好的发展机遇,边境贸易发展迅速,规模逐年增大,进出口产业结构不断优化。同时,也面临着产品出口压力增加,边境贸易优惠政策弱化等诸多挑战。以广西百色边境贸易为例,分析中国—东盟自贸区建成后带来的发展机遇与挑战,提出适应性的边贸发展对策。     

贸易便利化视角下的知识产权边境执法——兼对《反假冒贸易协定》的评论

若干发达国家于2010年10月正式公布了此前一直秘密谈判的《反假冒贸易协定》,旨在进一步加强知识产权的执法体系。于此同时,随着关税壁垒的大幅削减以及各国对国际货物贸易增长的进一步需求,贸易便利化成为各级贸易规则谈判的重要议题。在这样的背景下,贸易便利化与知识产权边境执法之间的相互关系和相互影响问题日渐凸显。本文尝试从贸易便利化的视角来考察知识产权边境执法体系,在概述了《反假冒贸易协定》的边境执法规则后,进一步分析了这套规则对贸易便利化的影响。在此基础上,本文着重讨论了中国应如何在促进贸易便利化和保护知识产权的双向维度下确立恰当的知识产权边境执法体系,并提出了具体的建议。     

“碳关税”措施在GATT/WTO体制中的合法性研究

碳关税措施的规定是针对国内产品征收的碳税所进行的边境税调整,但国内碳税并不在WTO的边境税调整范围之内。碳关税不符合非歧视待遇原则中的国民待遇原则;由于各国环境政策和环保措施不同,碳关税也违反最惠国待遇原则。碳关税措施不符合GATT第20条(b)款与(g)款的规定,但专家组和上诉机构的解释可能对于碳关税措施符合GATT/WTO的相关规则具有积极的意义。考虑到碳关税对我国部分产业和对外贸易的影响,应该依据上述理由予以反对,驳斥欧美部分国家对于碳关税措施在GATT/WTO中具有合法性的观点。     

Innovations in the Baltic Rim Region until 2025: Challenges and Prospects

This article examines the role of different actors (European Union [EU] structures, governmental institutions of the member-states, and regional companies with global outreach) in development of the innovation strategy in the Baltic Sea Rim. We identify three sub-regions, which are now in the stage of gradual convergence (“old” and “new” member-states of the EU as well as Russia), and focus on the main challenge to the region today, which is the ability of its countries to secure and strengthen the liberal nature of their socioeconomic systems. This research is based on the findings of the studies undertaken by authors as well as on our personal experience in the development of the Russian innovative ecosystem. It concludes that to avoid technological lagging behind other regions, governments of the Baltic Sea countries should complement the EU policies by implementing a set of proactive measures aimed at promotion of national innovations and intraregional cooperation.     

Border Effects Within A Dynamic Equilibrium Trade Model

A dynamic general equilibrium model is developed in which border effects are present. It is shown that despite very low trade barriers the presence of national borders can choke off a significant fraction of cross-border trade when firms experience start-up costs in establishing new markets. It is also revealed that country size, as measured by the number of markets in a country, can have a significant effect on how quickly firms grow. Also, it is shown that a decrease in trade barriers will increase the rate at which firms expand into both foreign and domestic markets. Furthermore, an increase in fixed costs at the production level is shown to increase trade flows. This helps explain why developed countries trade more than less developed countries. This article also develops a novel way to solve dynamic optimization problems when “state-space” constraints are present. The solution strategy is applicable to a wide variety of problems in which agents are not constrained now but are expected to be constrained in the future.     

The demand for safe assets in emerging economies and global imbalances: New empirical evidence

Recent economic theory has singled out mismatches between the supply and the demand of safe financial assets in emerging countries as drivers of international capital flows and, ultimately, global current account imbalances. This paper assesses empirically the contribution of such “search for safe assets” to the size and composition of emerging economies’ international asset portfolios. Excess demand for safe assets in financially less‐developed countries would imply that these countries hold disproportionately high shares of their total portfolios in foreign assets. Moreover, financially less‐developed countries would hold disproportionately high shares of their foreign portfolios in financially developed countries, which are the major producers of ostensibly safe assets. This paper finds little empirical support for these predictions. Financially less‐developed countries allocate a larger proportion of their total holdings to domestic assets. Even when focusing on their foreign portfolios, there is no evidence of a general bias towards the assets of financially developed countries. Overall, asset mismatches do not appear to explain the asset allocation of financially less‐developed countries.     

Does International Trade Catch Up with National Trade of Countries? Yes

The article applies an index suggested by Jeffrey Frankel on how to measure the gap between the intensity of national versus international transactions of a country to more than 100 countries over four periods between 1990 and 2005. The gap stands for “incomplete” globalization. It is shown that the gap has steadily declined for most countries over the sample period, irrespective of income levels. While larger economies are still less globalized than small economies, differences in domestic market size have become less important as a dividing line between more and less globalized economies.