EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

Beginning in the mid-1980s the primary development paradigm pursued by Latin American and Caribbean countries undertook a major shift from the concept of import-substitution-industrialization (ISI) to that of export-led growth and openness to international markets. Despite these efforts, virtually no research has been undertaken to assess the degree to which the export structures of Latin American and Caribbean countries have in fact diversified. This is unfortunate as the trade policy environment facing these countries is poised to undergo significant changes. The purpose of this article is to examine the structure of exports to the United States from 19 selected Latin American and Caribbean countries over the 1989 to 2000 period to assess the degree to which export diversification has occurred. The analysis is conducted at a reasonably disaggregate level using 2-digit HTS data. The countries included in the analysis provide a very interesting mix of commonalities and differences. The results suggest wide differences in the degree of diversification exhibited and suggest that these differences are related to economic size and social capability.     

LATIN AMERICA

Mexico embraces Independence Day This September 16 will smile to Mexico's Independence Day. In Mexico, Mexicans celebrate it each year on the night of September 15, when the President of Mexico re-enacts the event by ringing the bells of the National Palace in Mexico City. President repeats a cry of patriotism based upon the"Grito de Dolores"from the balcony of the palace, to the assem-     

EXPANSION STRATEGIES OF U.S. MNCs IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

Significant economic activities in the Latin American and Caribbean countries (LACs) since the debt crisis of the early to mid-1980s have created opportunities for U.S. firms to expand their business presence in the region. This study provides evidence on the shareholders' wealth effects of expansion by U.S. firms into the LACs. Three hundred twenty-two announcements of expansion to the LACs by U.S. firms during 1980 1996 are analyzed using event study methodology. Statistically significant excess returns of 0.52 percent are observed for the average expansion. Analysis of subsamples by mode of expansion shows that announcements of both FDI and non-FDI forms of expansion produce positive significant excess re turns. Significant positive reactions are observed for expansion to Brazil. Cross-sectional regression results provide additional insights into the determinants of wealth effects for these announcements.     

秘鲁——拉丁美洲投资目的地

从环球金融中心93层放眼望去,窗外的陆家嘴金融中心汇聚着众多中外金融机构、跨国公司地区总部、投资企业和中介服务机构,使空气中都充斥着"金融"的味道。柏悦酒店的宴会厅正在举行以"将秘鲁推向世界"为主题的国际投资推介会,这已是继中国香港后,秘鲁政府亚洲之行的第二站。秘鲁经济财政部长、对外贸易与旅游部长、秘鲁中央储备银行主席及其他30多位秘鲁政商界人士进行了演讲并参与分     

SPECIAL SECTION: RELIGION RESOURCES FOR BUSINESS ETHICS IN LATIN AMERICA

ABSTRACT

The impact of religion on business ethics has not been sufficiently studied by academics. Yet religious attitudes may play a very important role in the ways in which business strategies are developed and implemented, organizational cultures are established and companies are run. Thus, this section deals with the connection between religion and business ethics. Different perspectives of religious and business leaders are examined.

RESUMEM. El impacto de la religión en la ética comercial no ha sido suficientemente estudiado por los academicos. Sin embargo, actitudes religiosas pueden tener un papel muy importante en la manera por la cual las estrategias de los negocios son desarolladas e implementadas, culturas organizacionales son establecidas y empresas son dirigidas. Por lo tanto, esta sección trata de la conexión entre la religión y la ética en los negocios. Se analizan diferentes perspectivas de líderes religiosos y de negócios

RESUMO. O impacto da religião na ética não tem sido suficientemente estudado pelos acadêmicos. A religião, contudo, pode desempenhar um papel muito importante no desenvolvimento e implementação das estratégias de negócios, na determinação das culturas organizacionais e na gestão das empresas. Esta seção trata da relação entre a ética empresaria e a religião. Nela são examinadas as diferentes perspectivas dos líderes religiosos e empresariais.     

MARKET REFORM AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN LATIN AMERICA: Evidence from an Error Correction Model

This study models dollar values of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to conditions in seven Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela) during the 1988-1992 period. Although much research on FDI has used time series data to explain inward or outward flows, two things set this study apart. First, this study includes market reforms as independent variables. Second, this study uses newer time series econometric tools (unit root test and cointegration analysis) to correct for a spurious regression. Our model is robust, explaining 79.4 percent of variation. We found three independent variables (size of current account deficit, size of GDP, and value of privatization less FDI in privatized companies) to be significant. Although we found directional support for three other independent variables (degree of capital market liberalization, low inflation rate, and depreciation of the real exchange rate), none of these proved significant.     

拉美与俄罗斯:货币政策美元化与货币财富美元化

20世纪 90年代以来 ,拉美与俄罗斯均出现了美元化现象 ,但拉美的美元化是一种“货币政策美元化” ,是其政府的一种政策选择 ,即是以政府出面宣布其经济美元化 ,其实质是一种彻底而不可逆转的固定汇率制。拉美各国通过实行美元化可以得到本国经济利益的扩大 ,促进经济发展 ,而俄罗斯的美元化则是一种“货币财富美元化” ,是其居民的一种自发行为。俄罗斯的美元化给其经济发展带来一系列的弊端 ,严重阻碍了经济发展 ,其美元化是一种与拉美诸国不同的现象。因此 ,分析这两种美元化的出现背景、主要表现及对各自经济的影响 ,以便引为借鉴。     

贸易与气候变化:国际贸易.的新热点

全球气候变暖是全人类共同面临的巨大挑战,保护气候安全是国际社会的共同目标.为了减缓气候变化,保护气候安全,国际社会需要密切合作,及早减少温室气体排放.在此背景下,贸易与气候变化的关系进入人们的视野,成为贸易领域研究的前沿问题.     

ECONOMIC TRANSITION IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE: THE CONSEQUENCES FOR TRADE STRUCTURE AND TRADE VOLUME

The foreign policy literature typically sees Congress abdicating its policy making role to the executive, implying a presidential dominance model is superior to other policy process models (joint participation, congressional dominance, and bureaucratic dominance). This article uses two theoretical approaches to investigate who actually makes U.S. trade policy: a political economy approach and an institutional approach. We look at the 1985 96 period and at individual presidencies: Reagan (1985-88), Bush (1989-92), and Clinton (1993-96). Contrary to the literature, we find strong evidence that Congress is an active participant in the trade policy making process. Using a variety of empirical techniques (crosstabs, the Index of Revealed Comparative Advantage, pairwise correlations, and stepwise logistic regressions), we confirm that the trade policy process for product-industry-specific policies tends to be dominated by Congress whereas the executive branch is more influential in the policy process for country-specific policies. We conclude by noting the advantage of integrating aspects of both the political economy of trade and institu tional literatures to understand the nuances of U.S. foreign trade policy making.     

FOREIGN TRADE AND THE EXCHANGE RATE IN BOTSWANA

Botswana is a success story of exceptional economic performance, sound development management, and good governance. A great deal of that success can be attributed to the country's export performance and the avoidance of the 'Dutch Disease' syndrome that has plagued other natural resource based African countries. This article documents and analyzes Botswana's trade and exchange rate relationship, during the past two decades, in the context of the country's economic performance, and examines the related issue of the value of the country's currency to determine whether it is overvalued or undervalued.     

浅谈电子商务在国际贸易中的应用与发展及应对策略

电子商务是网络化的新型经济活动,是现代服务业的重要形式之一,是上海创新商贸业发展方式、提升贸易功能能级、拓展国际国内两个市场、推动内外贸融合的有效手段,加快国际贸易中心建设的重要抓手。电子商务已逐步成为全球新经济的重要组成部分,提高国际竞争力的必然选择。上海市在电子商务发展上,为全国领先。作为国际金融贸易中心的上海,以将电子商务的发展纳入了上海     

MOMENT EXPLOSIONS AND STATIONARY DISTRIBUTIONS IN AFFINE DIFFUSION MODELS

Many of the most widely used models in finance fall within the affine family of diffusion processes. The affine family combines modeling flexibility with substantial tractability, particularly through transform analysis; these models are used both for econometric modeling and for pricing and hedging of derivative securities. We analyze the tail behavior, the range of finite exponential moments, and the convergence to stationarity in affine models, focusing on the class of canonical models defined by Dai and Singleton (2000) . We show that these models have limiting stationary distributions and characterize these limits. We show that the tails of both the transient and stationary distributions of these models are necessarily exponential or Gaussian; in the non-Gaussian case, we characterize the tail decay rate for any linear combination of factors. We also give necessary and sufficient conditions for a linear combination of factors to be Gaussian. Our results follow from an investigation into the stability properties of the systems of ordinary differential equations associated with affine diffusions.     

中国的技术研究与发展之路

笔者深知自己并非中国问题专家也从未在中国长期居住。本文以及后续文章都是作者从西方技术与发展研究的角度来观察中国所得的看法,这也是本文的意义所在     

试析贸易自由与贸易保护理论的分歧及其根源

在当今贸易全球化的大背景下自由贸易理论是主调 ,贸易保护理论也存在现实的市场。世界各国普遍采用和实施既倡导自由又实行某种保护方式的对外贸易政策。文章从自由贸易和贸易保护理论的主要内容及其分歧出发 ,试图从公平与效率这个国际规则的出发点 ,提供一个不同于传统定势的分析视角。     

2006年世界经济贸易形势展望

编者按:本文是商务部研究院所做<世界经济贸易形报告>的主体部分.<世界经济贸易报告>是研究院每年两次定期发布的有关当前世界经济、国际贸易和投资状况的报告.报告就世界经济、国际投资的最新情况、特点和趋势进行总结和分析.     

黑龙江省发展加工贸易的影响因素与战略思路

加工贸易己成为我国对外贸易的主要方式 ,但黑龙江加工贸易发展还比较滞后。从内因分析 ,黑龙江具有政策、比较成本及环境方面的内在优势 ,同时存在一些制约因素 :从外因分析 ,中国加入WT0 ,国家实施振兴东北战略将有利于黑龙江发展加工贸易 ,同时也存在一些不利因素。文章在分析内外因的基础上 ,提出黑龙江发展加工贸易的战略思路以促进其加快发展。     

REDISTRIBUTION AND FREE TRADE IN AGRICULTURE: ARE THEY COMPLEMENTARY?

The purpose of the paper is to look at the welfare effects of trade in agricultural goods in a less developed country where the agricultural market is controlled by a handful of large farmers. It is shown that the success of trade reform depends on the distribution of output between large and small farmers and the success of land reform leading to redistribution from the large to the small farmers depends on trade reform. In other words, if undertaken in isolation, each reform might lead to a fall in welfare, but if jointly undertaken, they will lead to an increase in welfare. Thus the two reforms are complementary.