Dispute Settlement at the WTO: Impacts of a No Deal in the US‐Brazil Cotton Dispute

On the day before Brazil was to start imposing retaliatory sanctions against the United States in the WTO dispute settlement case regarding unfair domestic and export upland cotton subsidies, the parties have reached a preliminary concession aimed at settling this eight‐year‐long trade dispute. In this paper, we explore the economywide impacts of a no deal with specific emphasis on intellectual property retaliation in a computable general equilibrium framework. As awarded by a WTO dispute settlement panel, Brazil would have been entitled to $591 million in retaliatory sanctions in goods sectors and $238 million in intellectual property sanctions. We find that retaliation by Brazil would have led to welfare gains for all countries except the United States. Most importantly, however, had Brazil not been allowed to retaliate in the form of suspension of intellectual property rights, the impact of trade retaliation alone would have been negative for both Brazil and the United States, a case of shooting oneself in the foot to shoot at the other person's foot.     

Why do foreigners invest in the United States?

Why are foreigners willing to invest over $2 trillion per year in the United States? This paper tests various hypotheses and finds that standard portfolio allocation models and diversification motives are poor predictors of foreign holdings of U.S. liabilities. Instead, foreigners hold greater shares of their investment portfolios in the United States if they have less developed financial markets. The magnitude of this effect decreases with income per capita. Countries that trade more with the United States also have greater portfolio shares in U.S. equity and bond markets. These results support recent theoretical work on the role of financial development in sustaining global imbalances and have important implications for whether the United States can continue to attract sufficient financing from abroad without major changes in asset prices and returns, especially in bond markets.     

Stock market data and trade policy: dumping and the semiconductor industry

This article uses stock market data to examine the effects of cost-based dumping and the subsequent trade agreements between the United States and Japan on U.S. semiconductor firms. Our empirical results show that the initial indication of dumping by Japanese semiconductor firms had a significant negative impact on stock prices of U.S. firms. On the other hand, the subsequent market-sharing trade agreement, under which Japan agreed to prevent the dumping of Japan-manufactured chips in the United States and the United States agreed to suspend the application of antidumping duties, had a positive impact on the stock prices of U.S. semiconductor firms. Our findings support the neoclassical trade theory that the imposition of import relief leads to a wealth transfer to producers.     

US–Brazil Cotton Dispute and the World Cotton Market

US policies for its cotton producers depress world cotton prices, adversely affecting exporters such as Brazil, which filed a complaint to the WTO. Despite WTO rulings in Brazil's favour, meting out the right to enact retaliatory countermeasures, the United States continues to subsidise its cotton farmers. After prolonged negotiations, Brazil and the United States reached an agreement which allowed the United States to pay Brazil to refrain from enforcing the countermeasures. To capture the adverse effects of US policies, theoretical analyses are conducted. The theoretical model is extended by constructing an empirical model of the world cotton market. The adverse effects of US policies on Brazil are estimated and compared to the compensation the United States pays Brazil.     

Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Trade Flows: Evidence from Commodity Trade between the United States and the United Kingdom

Previous studies that investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows employed aggregate trade data and standard estimation techniques. They provided mixed results. In this paper we use disaggregated import and export data for 177 commodities traded between the United States and the United Kingdom to investigate whether volatility of the real bilateral dollar–pound exchange rate has any detrimental effect on trade flows at the commodity level. Additionally, we employ the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error‐correction modelling that is suitable for the models used mostly because it does not require pre‐unit‐root testing and variables in the model could be stationary, non‐stationary or a combination of the two. In most trade flow models estimated, we found a negative effect of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade.     

The U.S.–Brazil relationship opportunity: Business synergies for a dynamic global environment

The U.S.–Brazil relationship features an intersection of public and private sectors characteristic of the post‐2000 dynamics of international business and governmental relations. As a triple helix reference for the private sector, the public sector, and academia, this article explores how further alignment of public and private interests of the United States and Brazil can improve the bilateral relationship between the two largest countries in the Western hemisphere. The first section recaps the U.S.–Brazil public relationship and cultural perspectives shared between Brazil and the United States. The second section reviews the relevance of the U.S.–Brazil relationship in Brazil's economy and business marketplace. Sections 3 through 5 discuss specific trade, investment, and tax agreements that can be mutually beneficial for the United States and Brazil. The final section recommends further areas for public–private cooperation between the United States and Brazil.     

Intra-industry trade between the united states and the major latin american countries: Measurement and implications for free trade in the Americas

This paper presents estimates for the level of intra-industry trade in the 1991 bilateral commerce between the United States and Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela. As theory predicts, intra-industry trade is positively correlated with income and with foreign investment in this study. Furthermore, Mexico and the United States present high levels of intra-industry trade, whereas the other Latin American countries analyzed have relatively low levels. The paper concludes that Mexico should experience much less difficulty in adjusting to free trade with the United States than the other countries. The low levels of intra-in-dustry trade between the United States and the other Latin American nations signal that increased trade between these areas would bring about significant dislocation of resources and high adjustment costs.     

入世十年来中国与LDC国家贸易新发展及展望

中国与最不发达国家间的经贸关系日益紧密,但是针对中国在这些国家的"新殖民主义"活动的指责声日益高涨,在中国加入世界贸易组织十周年之际,文章通过对比分析中国、美国以及欧盟与最不发达国家间的贸易商品结构的演变,发现中国自LDC国家的进口商品结构严重偏向于资源类商品的事实,探讨了中国在未来经贸合作中更应注重对LDC国家自我发展能力的培养以及中方的投资开发行为应遵循的原则,从而构建新型的双边经贸合作前景。     

The effect of commercial policy on international migration flows: the case of the United States and Mexico

"Microeconomic simulations are performed to determine the impact of liberalized commodity trade on Mexican immigrant supply to the United States. The results suggest that a removal of trade barriers will reduce migration flows, but that the reduction will be fairly modest. Specifically, if both countries move from the levels of protection characteristic of the mid-1960s to completely free trade, the ratio of real U.S.-Mexican wages falls by roughly 18 percent. Using an upper bound for the range of empirical estimates of the wage elasticity of immigrant supply, this implies a maximum reduction in migration flows of 35 percent. A unilateral elimination of trade barriers by the United States reduces Mexican immigrant supply by a maximum of 14 percent."     

The Payoff to America from Globalisation

This article summarizes the economic payoff to the United States from its postwar trade opening and estimates the potential future gains from more opening going forward. To quantify these gains, we survey different methodologies and estimates. We find that trade opening since World War II has added between $800 billion to $1.4 trillion to the US economy, or about $7,000 to $13,000 per household. More speculative estimates of the potential additional gains from removing the rest of US trade barriers range from $400 billion to $1.3 trillion, or about $4,000 to $12,000 per household. Since trade opening permanently raises national income, these gains are enjoyed annually. Trade opening inevitably entails adjustment costs. We estimate that the lifetime cost of all worker dislocations that have been triggered by expanded trade in the United States could be as high as $54 billion, although probably less. The permanent gains from past and potential liberalization easily swamp the modest sums necessary to alleviate the temporary pains of adjustment. In the future as in the past, free trade can significantly raise income – and quality of life – in America.     

中美、日美纺织品贸易摩擦比较及其启示

基于对日美、中美纺织品贸易摩擦状况的回顾,本文提出在贸易摩擦中提高产业国际竞争力,利用贸易摩擦推动国内产业结构升级,借鉴日本贸易谈判应对经验,抵制贸易摩擦给人民币升值和资本市场开放带来的压力,更多地运用世贸组织等多边贸易摩擦解决机制等建议。     

Multilateral,Regional and Bilateral Trade‐Policy Options for the United States and Japan

We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects on the United States, Japan, and other major trading countries/regions of the Doha Round of WTO multilateral trade negotiations and a variety of regional/bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) involving the United States and Japan. We estimate that an assumed reduction of post‐Uruguay Round tariffs and other barriers on agricultural and industrial products and services by 33 per cent in the Doha Round would increase world welfare by $686.4 billion, with gains of $164.0 billion for the United States, $132.6 billion for Japan, and significant gains for all other industrialised and developing countries/regions. If there were global free trade with all post‐Uruguay Round trade barriers completely removed, world welfare would increase by $2.1 trillion, with gains of $497.0 billion (5.5 per cent of GNP) for the United States and $401.9 billion (6.2 per cent of GNP) for Japan. Regional agreements such as an APEC FTA, an ASEAN Plus 3 FTA, and a Western Hemisphere FTA would increase global and member country welfare but much less so than the Doha multilateral trade round would. Separate bilateral FTAs involving Japan with Singapore, Mexico, Chile and Korea, and the United States with Chile, Singapore and Korea would have positive, though generally small, welfare effects on the partner countries, but potentially disruptive sectoral employment shifts in some countries. There would be trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on some non‐member countries for both the regional and bilateral FTAs analysed. The welfare gains from multilateral trade liberalisation are therefore considerably greater than the gains from preferential trading arrangements and more uniformly positive for all countries.     

中美经贸摩擦如何影响了大豆进口——基于贸易转移与创造效应视角

中美经贸摩擦背景下,中国对美国大豆进行反制,加征25%关税,那么,中国对美豆加征关税,会对中国大豆来源布局和产业产生怎样影响。文章利用寡头竞争理论,使用2002年1月~2020年3月中国海关数据,利用进口需求模型(AIDS),分析了加征关税对农产品贸易可能发生的贸易损害、贸易转移和贸易创造效应。实证结果表明,中国对美国大豆并不存在刚性依赖,对美加征关税将发生显著贸易转移效应和创造效应。即对美关税每增加1%,将会导致其对中国大豆出口下降1.29%,对巴西大豆进口上涨0.67%,对阿根廷大豆进口上涨0.66%,对其他国家进口上涨1.03%。中国市场增长和加征关税,将会造成国际大豆贸易创造效应,并激发非传统国家进入大豆贸易市场。     

US–Brazilian cotton policies

Brazil filed a lawsuit with the WTO against the United States for providing cotton production and export subsidies, and the WTO ruled in favour of Brazil. Brazil threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs if the United States does not comply with the WTO rulings. After a prolonged litigation stretching from 2002 to 2010, both countries agreed to a negotiated settlement wherein the United States paid Brazilian cotton producers to compensate for any adverse effects. This study develops a political economic model to theoretically analyse US cotton policies, Brazil's threat of retaliatory tariffs and the negotiated settlement between the two countries. The theoretical results show that the volume of cotton output, supply price response, politicians' apathy for the public welfare, elasticities of excess supply/demand and the magnitude of US transfers play a crucial role in determining US policies. This study contributes to the literature by being the first to model political economic aspects of the complex system of trade and domestic policies in the cotton industry using a three-country framework, tariff retaliation and transfers between the countries.     

Impacts of short-term interest rates on stock returns and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from EAGLE countries

In this study, we estimate Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and time-varying structural VAR (TVP-VAR) models for Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey to analyze the impacts of short-term interest rates on stock prices and exchange rates considering the relationships between these variables. BVAR and TVP-VAR models’ estimations indicate that monetary policy decisions of these countries lead to capital movements as well as capital movements may create a considerable amount of variation in exchange and stock markets both in the periods of economic stability and financial crisis. We also reveal that increases in interest rates intending to prevent capital outflows may lead to decrease in stock returns, which in turn may deteriorate the real economic activity in Indonesia, while changes in short-term interest rates in Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey cannot be used as a tool to stabilize the value of their home currencies against the USD. Our study highlights the importance of formulating an optimal monetary policy framework accompanied by macro-prudential polices, which help to reach inflation target and smooth the possible variations in exchange rates and stock prices during economic crisis conditions in Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey.     

AN ERROR CORRECTION ANALYSIS OF U.S.-MEXICO TRADE FLOWS

Abstract

Estimation of bilateral trade elasticities is less well documented than is the case for aggregate trade flows. This study estimates bilateral trade equations for Mexico and the United States. The empirical analysis is carried out using an error correction approach that allows imports and exports to adjust over time to changes in the independent variables that affect the demand for them. Results obtained indicate that imports and exports between the two neighbors react heterogeneously to variations in domestic prices, foreign prices, and currency values. Lag structures between the two trade equations also differ from each other.     

基于边界检验的中国谷物进口需求研究

文章在边界检验的基础上建立进口需求函数的UECM模型,研究了我国谷物进口对收入与相对价格的短期和长期弹性,结果发现玉米和大麦进口对收入和相对价格具有长期均衡的关系。从4个国家进口不同谷物产品长期收入弹性系数均为负,相对价格均为正;我国从美国进口玉米的短期相对价格弹性和从法国进口小麦的长期收入弹性都明显较大,即我国对美国和法国谷物进口较敏感;而从泰国进口水稻和从澳大利亚进口大麦的进口收入和相对价格弹性相对较小,即我国对泰国和澳大利亚谷物进口不论短期还是长期均不敏感,并保持相对稳定,从满足国内谷物需求的角度看,我国应与这两个国家建立长期稳定的贸易合作关系。     

The macroeconomic effects of commodity market disruptions in open economies

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of two of the principal causes of the commodity price boom in 1973-74: bad harvests and commodity speculation. The analysis uses a dynamic, fixprice-flexprice model in which exchange rates are flexible and commodities serve as both an asset and a consumption good. Commodity market disruptions of the magnitude that occurred in 1973-74 are shown to have significant effects on prices, exchange rates, trade flows, and capital flows — effects that persist long after the initial shock has passed. Asset markets, defined to include commodity markets, play a central role in transmitting these shocks throughout the world economy.     

An asymmetric analysis of the J‐curve effect in the commodity trade between China and the US

This paper follows a non‐linear ARDL error‐correction approach to examine the presence of the J‐curve in the commodity‐level trade between the United States and China. The analysis disaggregates the US–China trade flows by commodities and separately examines the trade balance responses of 97 commodities to the changes in the real yuan–US$ exchange rates. The analysis at the commodity level alleviates potential aggregation bias that is present in earlier studies offering little evidence for long‐run asymmetric effects of exchange rate on the China–US trade balance. We find strong support for short‐run asymmetric effects in the case of two‐third of the commodities, whereas significant long‐run asymmetric effects are present in the case of one‐third of the commodities including those commodities which command large shares in the China–US trade.     

The role of venture capital in financing small business

Venture capital is a primary and unique source of funding for small firms because these firms (with sales and/or assets under $5 million) have very limited access to traditional capital markets. Venture capital is a substitute, but not a perfect substitute, for trade credit, bank credit, and other forms of financing for small firms. Small businesses are not likely to be successful in attracting venture capital unless the firms have the potential to provide extraordinary returns to the venture capitalist.This study provides an analysis of a survey of venture capital firms that participate in small business financing. The survey participants are venture capital firms that were 1986 members of the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA), the largest venture capital association in the United States.The average size of the venture capital firms responding to the survey is $92 million dollars in assets, with a range from $600 thousand to $500 million. Twenty-three percent of the respondents have total assets below $20 million, and 27% have assets above $100 million.The venture capitalists' investment (assets held) in small firms delineate the supply of venture capital to small firms. Sixty-three of the 92 venture capitalists' have more than 70% of their assets invested in small firms.The venture capitalists were asked how their investment plans might change with changes in the tax law that were projected in the spring of 1986. Fifty-four percent expected to increase their investments in small firms, and 38% did not expect to change these activities.Venture capitalists are very selective in allocating their resources. The average number of annual requests that a venture capitalist receives is 652, and the median number is 500: only 11.5 of the respondents receive more than 1,000 proposals per year.