The structure of factor content predictions

The last decade witnessed an explosion of research into the impact of international technology differences on the factor content of trade. Yet the literature has failed to confront two pivotal issues. First, with international technology differences and traded intermediate inputs, there is no existing definition of the factor content of trade that is compatible with Vanek's factor content prediction. We fill this gap. Second, as Helpman and Krugman (1985) showed, many models beyond Heckscher-Ohlin imply the Vanek prediction. Thus, absent a complete list of these models, we do not fully know what models are being tested when the Vanek prediction is tested. We completely characterize the class of models being tested by providing a familiar consumption similarity condition that is necessary and sufficient for a robust Vanek prediction. Finally, we reassess the performance of the prediction using the correct factor content definition and input-output tables for 41 countries. We find that the prediction performs well except for the presence of missing trade. Further, missing trade is not pervasive: it is associated entirely with ‘home bias’ in the consumption of agricultural goods, government services and construction.     

The effect of variation in foreign production on domestic factor prices

In this article, the effects of random versus nonrandom foreign production on the average commodity price ratio and on average domestic factor prices are examined within the context of the Heckscher-Ohlin framework. It is shown that the average price ratio is changed when production is random. Thus, the condition derived by Murray C. Kemp and Chulsoon Khang for expected factor prices to be changed when the commodity price ratio is random, must be altered in accordance with the Stolper-Samuelson theorem.     

基于H-O模型的外生技术进步与国际贸易分析

在H-O模型的基础上通过几何分析和代数证明,本文分别阐述了在小国情形和大国情形下,出口部门与进口部门的希克斯中性技术进步对一国的生产模式、贸易模式、要素报酬、要素密集度和社会福利的影响。     

Factors influencing United States comparative advantage

One of the more famous results in international trade is Leontief's demonstration that the conventional wisdom of trade theory—the two-factor Heckscher-Ohlin model, coupled with the empirical judgement that the U.S. is capital-rich—does not appear to provide an explanation of the composition of U.S. trade. A major conclusion of many recent studies is that an adequate model of comparative advantage will be, of necessity, a multi-factor one. This paper examines the implications of a modified multi-factor-proportions model by measuring the simultaneous impact of a variety of factor intensities on the comparative advantage of all U.S. (trading) industries, classified and disaggregated by the 1958 input-output table. The novelty of the study lies in using a binary measure of comparative advantage. In order to by-pass several econometric difficulties, logit analysis is used to estimate the model. The principal conclusion of the paper is that capital-intensity has a significantly positive impact on the comparative advantage of U.S. manufacturing industries and, therefore, that the U.S. is, in fact, relatively capital-rich.     

New goods and the skill premium

In a two-cone Heckscher-Ohlin model with CES preferences and a continuum of goods, new northern goods increase the northern skill premium if they are skilled-labor intensive, and may increase the premium if they are unskilled-labor intensive. Thus, the introduction of new goods into US technology could have done more to increase the US skill premium than a closed-economy model would predict. I also explore how new northern goods affect the southern skill premium and what happens if they generate preference-induced reversals across existing goods. I develop a two-step solution method that simplifies comparative static analyses in the two-cone Heckscher-Ohlin model.     

The theorems of international trade in time-phased economies

Numerous recent studies conclude that the basic results of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory are vitiated by ‘capital’: a collection of heterogeneous produced means of production. where production takes time and the interest rate is positive. This paper examines the sensitivity of the four basic theorems to the presence of capital and concludes that all four are impervious. The pessimistic conclusions permeating the literature are consequently due not to the nature of capital but rather to other departures from the two-by-two neoclassical model, departures that can be handled fully in a timeless context and, for the most part, have been.     

Diffusion of a new intermediate product in a simple ‘classical‐Schumpeterian’ model

This paper deals with the problem of new intermediate products within a simple model, where production is circular and goods enter into the production of other goods. It studies the process by which the new good is absorbed into the economy and the structural transformation that goes with it. By means of a long‐period method the forces of structural transformation are examined, in particular the shift of existing means of production towards the innovation and the mechanism of differential growth in terms of alternative techniques and their associated systems of production. We treat two important Schumpeterian topics: the question of technological unemployment and the problem of ‘forced saving’ and the related problem of an involuntary reduction of real consumption per capita. It is shown that both phenomena are potential by‐products of the transformation process.     

A synthesis of the Heckscher-Ohlin and the neoclassical models of international trade

In this paper we provide a synthesis between the neoclassical and the Heckscher-Ohlin models of international trade by developing the properties of a two-sector, three-factor model. The neoclassical model, where one or more factors are specific to one or both industries, and the Heckscher-Ohlin model, where two (or all factors) are nonspecific, then can be analyzed as special cases of our model. The theorems by Rybczynski, Stolper and Samuelson, Jones and Chipman, among others, are reexamined in terms of our generalized model.     

国内商品贸易与居民消费水平——最终消费品及中间品流通的支撑作用

构建商品自由流通的国内统一市场能够增进消费者福祉。在地区间市场开放的条件下，对于有大量商品销往外地的地区而言，其中相应产业应具有较强的竞争力，且该商品在当地的消费市场应更为发达；而当一个地区特定产业的生产规模较小时，外地商品流入将对当地的居民消费产生支撑作用。进一步地，以中间品流通为基础的国内价值链分工能够提升产品竞争力,表现为大量商品外销的地区中交通运输、批发零售等流通行业活动的中间投入需求较大。以全国31个省2007、2012年投入产出表及经济运行数据为基础构建计量模型进行实证分析，结果印证了上述地区间商品贸易与居民消费水平间的关系机制。由此可以说明，促进地区间最终商品和中间品市场整合对于提升居民消费具有积极意义。     

Sectoral adjustment costs and real exchange rate dynamics in a two-sector dependent economy

This paper develops a two-sector model in which intersectoral capital movements involve adjustment costs, expressed as capital lost in the transformation process. These costs have important consequences for the dynamics of capital accumulation and particularly for real exchange rate dynamics. Persistent deviations of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium are derived and for plausible values of the adjustment cost parameters are consistent with the observed degree of real exchange rate persistence. For low adjustment costs the dynamics are qualitatively similar to those of the standard Heckscher-Ohlin technology. For high adjustment costs, the model converges to the specific-factors model. Thus our framework includes these two standard models as polar extremes.     

Market access, economic geography and comparative advantage: an empirical test

Traditional neoclassical models of comparative advantage suggest that, all else equal, a country with idiosyncratically strong demand for a good will be an importer of that good. However, there is a contrary tradition that emphasizes the advantages of a large home market as a foundation for exports of a good. One recent formalization of this home market approach falls within what is termed the new economic geography. This paper integrates core models of Heckscher-Ohlin and Krugman [American Economic Review 70 (1980) 950] to investigate whether such home market effects matter empirically in manufacturing for a set of OECD countries. The evidence suggests that home market effects are important for a broad segment of OECD manufacturing.     

The Heckscher-Ohlin and Travis-Vanek theorems under uncertainty

The Heckscher-Ohlin theorem is valid under uncertainty of the special benchmark sort modelled by Helpman-Razin. Their pessimism over its validity is vanquished by more structure: rational expectations are imposed on consumers and identical and constant relative aversion to income risk is assumed. Under these circumstances, with free commodity trade, the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem holds for the international exchange of equities.     

On the similarity of country endowments

We study the production side of the Heckscher-Ohlin model empirically. The evidence we present suggests that the endowments of countries around the world are too dissimilar for all countries to be able to produce the same set of goods. In contrast, the endowments of the rich OECD countries are sufficiently similar, so that these countries do not have to specialize in different subsets of goods. Our findings have implications for a variety of issues ranging from the trade and wages debate to economic development. Our analysis relies on the lens condition of Deardorff [Journal of International Economics 36 (1994) 167-175] that compares country endowments with sectoral factor inputs. We mainly focus on the production factors capital and labor. We test the robustness of the results with different data sets and with corrections for international differences in productivity and human capital. We confirm the similarity of the developed OECD countries with skilled and unskilled labor data. We also investigate in detail the implications of measurement error and sectoral aggregation.     

中国生产者服务业的增长、结构变化及其影响——基于投入-产出法的分析

本文采用投入-产出方法,在生产者服务的本来意义上,而不是从具体的带有生产者服务特性的服务部门出发,对中国生产者服务业的增长、结构变化及其影响进行经验研究,由此得出一些基本结论:1981年以来,中国生产者服务业在国民经济中的地位逐步上升,服务业的生产者服务功能逐渐显现,但与英、美等国相比,中国生产者服务占国民总产出比重偏低;中国服务业及其有关分部门与国民经济其他产业或部门的前后向联系效应相对较弱,说明中国服务业的增长不仅不能对国民经济产生应有的带动作用,而且其本身受其他部门的需求拉动作用也不大.     

The calculation of bilateral trade patterns in a Ricardian model with intermediate products and barriers to trade

After arguing for a computational approach to the theory of international trade the paper presents an algorithm for solving a generalized Ricardian two-country model. The algorithm focuses on the ‘critical exchange ratios’ at which the pattern of specialization changes. In the absence of barriers to trade there is one exchange ratio (defined as the value of one country's labor in terms of the other country's labor) at which production of a good moves from one country to the other. With barriers to trade there are two critical ratios for each good, between which it is not traded. Taking the critical ratios in sequence the trade balance can be calculated as a discontinuous function of the exchange rate; where the balance equals zero (or some given transfer) the problem is solved. The method works with arbitrary demand functions and can handle intermediate products.     

International trade in the presence of product differentiation,economies of scale and monopolistic competition: A Chamberlin-Heckscher-Ohlin approach

The paper presents a generalization of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory by admitting the existence of sectors in which there is monopolistic competition. The structure of preferences is based on Lancaster's work. It is shown without requiring homotheticity in the production of differentiated products that the intersectoral pattern of trade can be predicted from factor endowments but not from pre-trade commodity prices or factor rewards, except under special circumstances. It is also shown how the share of intra-industry trade is related to differences in income per capita and how the volume of trade depends on differences in income per capita and relative country-size Other empirical implications are also discussed.     

改进粒子群算法在频谱功率分配中的应用

在认知无线电中,由于次用户干扰门限要求的存在,传统频谱功率分配方式获得的次用户有效信道容量较低。针对这一问题,提出了一种基于粒子群算法的频谱功率分配算法。首先建立基于干扰距离的认知网络干扰模型,将频谱功率分配问题转化为函数优化问题,并借助混合随机变异思想的粒子群算法进行求解;针对寻优过程中的约束问题,提出了一种基于投入产出比的外点法,保证粒子群在可行域中寻优,最终获得频谱功率分配。仿真结果表明,与传统算法相比,所提算法能够获得较高的次用户有效信道容量。     

Vertical Specialization Across Developed Countries

This article explains why a large part of vertical specialization in production takes place across developed countries. By introducing the concept “the Ideal Intermediate Good” it is shown that there are incentives for vertical collaboration between an intermediate good producer and a final good producer. The purpose of locating the intermediate good production in an identical host country is to come closer to the most suitable intermediate good. Thereby the variable costs in the final good production are reduced. When the final good production takes place in one company, we have a vertical integrated multinational enterprise, which splits its production across identical countries. By inclusion of internal economies of scale and transport costs the problem becomes much more complex, and a reallocation of welfare between the countries can be the result.     

中国消费碳排放的测度及影响因素研究

本文采用(进口)非竞争型投入产出模型测算了2002-2009年中国二氧化碳的生产排放、消费排放、出口排放及进口排放,并采用投入产出结构分解方法对消费排放与出口排放的影响因素进行了分解分析。生产排放量与消费排放量分别从405509.15MT与407266.16MT增加至602281.91MT与573106.09MT。除2002年外,其余年份生产排放量都大于消费排放量,缘由在于此间出口含碳量都大于进口含碳量。分解结果显示,在研究期间,国内最终需求规模和进口规模的扩张是消费排放增长的主要原因,出口规模是出口排放增长的主要原因,最终消费及中间产品的需求逐步趋向于高碳排放产品,中间投入技术呈一定进步趋势,但能源效率得到较大程度的改善,但能源结构和出口结构仍不够理想。     

重构比较优势理论的微观基础:一般均衡分析

基于消费者与厂商的最优决策,通过将外生技术差别纳入H-O模型进行一般均衡分析,重构比较优势理论的微观基础。研究发现,国际分工取决于要素禀赋与技术差别两种因素的综合作用,劳动力相对丰裕的国家若生产资本密集型商品的技术优势超过禀赋劣势,反而可以出口资本密集型商品。为了避免陷入"比较利益陷阱",中国应采取有效措施加快技术进步,突破传统比较优势分工格局。