美国贸易政策不确定性与新兴经济体跨境股票资本流动北大核心CSSCI

本文使用1996年2月-2020年1月35个新兴经济体的跨境股票型基金微观数据,实证考察美国贸易政策不确定性对新兴经济体跨境股票资本流动的影响。结果表明:美国贸易政策不确定性上升会导致新兴经济体跨境股票型基金净资本流入下降,这一影响在2008年全球金融危机后更为显著。受国别因素影响,美国贸易政策不确定性的影响存在异质性。一国外汇风险暴露水平更高、国际金融一体化风险更大、与美国直接贸易联系更紧密,受到的美国贸易政策不确定性的影响更显著,更高的利率水平有利于缓解美国贸易政策不确定性的影响。从全球价值链视角来看,美国贸易政策不确定性上升对处于研发密集型行业下游和邮政通讯、金融商业服务等行业下游的经济体影响显著。渠道分析表明,全球投资者对新兴经济体的国别风险情绪变化是美国贸易政策不确定性冲击的重要传导渠道。进一步研究表明,中美贸易摩擦期间,主要受美国贸易政策不确定性影响,加征关税会显著降低新兴经济体跨境股票型基金净资本流入。在金融开放进程中,新兴经济体应防范外部不确定性引发的资本流动剧烈波动风险,保持宏观经济与金融市场稳定。     

Global financial conditions,country spreads and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries

This paper uses a panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the extent to which global financial conditions, i.e., a global risk-free interest rate and global financial risk, and country spreads contribute to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries. The main findings are: (1) global financial risk shocks explain about 20% of movements both in the country spread and in the aggregate activity in emerging economies. (2) The contribution of global risk-free interest rate shocks to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies is negligible. Its role, which was emphasized in the literature, is taken up by global financial risk shocks. (3) Country spread shocks explain about 15 percent of the business cycles in emerging economies. (4) Interdependence between economic activity and the country spread is a key mechanism through which global financial shocks are transmitted to emerging economies.     

Monetary autonomy in emerging market economies: The role of foreign reserves

This paper examines trends in monetary autonomy and their interactions with financial integration, currency regimes and foreign reserves for recent decades in emerging Asian and Latin American economies. Our main findings are the following: First, most emerging Asian economies have increased monetary autonomy mainly due to changes in currency regimes toward floating regimes, while emerging Latin American economies have shown mixed results on monetary autonomy. Second, in all sample economies, the accumulation of foreign reserves has contributed to retaining monetary autonomy, probably implying the role of foreign reserves as an anchor for monetary autonomy in emerging market economies.     

Internationalization strategies of emerging market banks: Challenges and opportunities

The greatly improved economic fundamentals of the major emerging economies over the last decade have propelled several emerging banks into the ranks of the world’s largest. Despite their importance in the global economy, the internationalization of emerging market banks remains an understudied phenomenon. This article examines factors that may influence the internationalization strategies of emerging market banks in the private banking sector, both when going abroad (take-off) and upon arrival in a host country (landing). The private banking sector is of significant interest given its importance in many leading financial centers around the world while undergoing major transformation due to the worldwide financial crisis, several recent scandals, and a fast-changing regulatory environment. We highlight the internationalization strategies of two banks from emerging countries, China and Brazil, and their experience in Switzerland’s traditional private banking sector. These two cases highlight factors that may influence successful internationalization such as prior industry experience, existing client base, entry strategy, ownership type, and the liability of foreignness. Our findings offer valuable implications for managers from other emerging economies by providing a better understanding of how emerging market banks expand internationally.     

The impact of trade and financial openness on bank loan pricing: Evidence from emerging economies

In this paper, we examine the impact of trade and financial openness on bank loan pricing. Using data from 35 emerging economies, we first document that higher trade and financial openness lower interest rates on gross bank loans using country-specific measures for trade and financial openness. We then confirm our findings using firm-specific measures for trade and financial openness and individual loan spread. Exploiting the accession to World Trade Organization (WTO) as a quasi-natural experiment, we observe loan interest rates declined in countries after joining the WTO. Overall, we imply that openness is beneficial for financial development in emerging economies.     

The Signaling Effect of Corporate Social Responsibility in Emerging Economies

What signals do firms in emerging economies send to stakeholders when they adopt corporate social responsibility (CSR) practices? We argue that in emerging economies, firms that adopt CSR practices positively signal investors that their firms have superior capabilities for filling institutional voids. From an institution-based view, we hypothesize that the institutional environment moderates the signaling effect of CSR on a firm’s financial performance. Based on a sample of firms from ten Asian emerging economies, we find a positive relationship between CSR practices and financial performance. This positive relationship is stronger in the less developed capital market than in the more developed one. The financial benefits of CSR practices are also more salient in the low information diffusion market than in the high one. We emphasize that signaling theory and the institution-based view can jointly contribute to the CSR literature.     

Emerging Markets and the Global Monetary System: The Challenge of Rising Inflation

While spillovers of the present financial turmoil in mature economies to emerging economies have so far largely been contained, the monetary policy implications of the financial turbulence present a challenge to the approach pursued by emerging markets in integrating into the global monetary system following the crises of the mid to late 1990s. Specifically, the period of a smooth coexistence between meeting inflation targets and maintaining a high degree of exchange rate stability is likely to come to an end. * At the time of writing this paper, the second author was an advisor at the Deutsche Bundesbank on secondment from the European Central Bank. The views expressed are solely those of the authors. They wish to thank Karlheinz Bischofberger, Ulrich Grosch and Sabine Herrmann for their valuable comments and suggestions, as well as Livia Chitu for excellent research assistance.     

Best Practices in Credit Accessibility and Corporate Social Responsibility in Financial Institutions

The purpose of this article is to present and discuss some of the best practices of financial industry, in three emerging economies: Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru. The main thesis is that, notwithstanding the importance of certain specific deficiencies, such as an inadequate regulatory context or the lack of financial education among the population, the main factor that explains the low banking levels in emerging and developing economies, affecting mostly lower-income segments, is the use of inefficient financial service distribution models. In connection with this thesis, we will try to show that traditional financial institutions, both in developing countries and in the advanced economies have a special social responsibility to help create an efficient financial system that makes saving and borrowing instruments available to the greatest possible number of citizens.     

新兴经济体市场需求变化态势与中国企业选择——基于东莞外向型企业拓展新兴市场的调研

国际金融危机后,新兴经济体成为世界经济复苏及其持续发展的主要动力来源。以IMF界定的26个新兴市场国家为范围,通过东莞外向型企业拓展新兴市场的情况调研,发现新兴市场需求具有进口规模不大、增速快、市场需求差异比较大等特征,对中国企业拓展新兴市场具有一定挑战。中国企业必须转变对新兴市场的观念,采取多路径进入新兴市场,并加强对新兴市场的维护。     

A Framework for Assessing Global Imbalances1

Since the mid‐1990s and prior to the financial crisis external balances of systemically important economies widened significantly. This paper takes a long‐run perspective and reviews the main determinants of widening global imbalances. To this aim, we first provide a set of newly derived statistical measures: while large external imbalances are not new in economic history, their persistence, their concentration on one economy (the United States) and the specific role of emerging market economies make the present episode rather unique. Second, we argue that the observed pattern of imbalances can be mostly understood as a result of various structural changes in the global economy, which have allowed a widening trend of external positions. Three main features set the most recent period apart from past episodes of growing external imbalances: (i) the emergence of new players, in particular emerging market economies such as China and India, which are quickly catching up with the advanced economies; (ii) an unprecedented wave of financial globalisation, with more integrated global financial markets and increasing opportunities for international portfolio diversification, also characterised by considerable asymmetries in the level of market completeness across countries; and (iii) the favourable global macroeconomic and financial environment, with record high global growth rates in recent years, low financial market volatility and easy global financing conditions over a long period of time, running until the outburst of the financial crisis during the summer of 2007. These structural changes that have been supplemented by cyclical or policy‐induced factors ultimately facilitated the sudden, disorderly unwinding of global imbalances that is reflected in the current financial crisis.     

Best Practices in Credit Accessibility and Corporate Social Responsibility in Financial Institutions

The purpose of this article is to present and discuss some of the best practices of financial industry, in three emerging economies: Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru. The main thesis is that, notwithstanding the importance of certain specific deficiencies, such as an inadequate regulatory context or the lack of financial education among the population, the main factor that explains the low banking levels in emerging and developing economies, affecting mostly lower-income segments, is the use of inefficient financial service distribution models. In connection with this thesis, we will try to show that traditional financial institutions, both in developing countries and in the advanced economies have a special social responsibility to help create an efficient financial system that makes saving and borrowing instruments available to the greatest possible number of citizens.     

Accounting for sovereign tail risk in emerging economies: The role of global and domestic risk factors

This paper evaluates the role of global and domestic risk factors in explaining sovereign tail risk for 18 emerging economies. Sovereign tail risk is defined as the likelihood of a sharp rise in sovereign credit risk. We find that both global and domestic risk factors contribute significantly to sovereign tail risk, with explanatory power increasing with the severity of tail risk in a non-linear fashion. Indeed, their contributions have become stronger following the global financial crisis. In particular, global liquidity conditions, commodity prices and economic growth are ranked as the major risk factors for sovereign tail risk among the EMEs.     

Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling

In this paper, we investigate the degree of real economic interdependence between emerging East Asian and major industrial countries to shed light on the heated debate over the ‘decoupling’ of emerging East Asia. We first document the evolution of macroeconomic interdependence for emerging East Asian economies through changing trade and financial linkages at both the regional and global levels. Then, by employing a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model, we estimate the degree of real economic interdependence before and after the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. Empirical findings show that real economic interdependence increased significantly in the post‐crisis period, suggesting ‘recoupling’, rather than decoupling, in recent years. Output shocks from major industrial countries have a significant positive effect on emerging East Asian economies. More interestingly, the reverse is also true. Output shocks from emerging East Asia (and China) have a significant positive effect on output in major industrial countries. The result suggests that macroeconomic interdependence between emerging East Asia and industrial countries have become ‘bi‐directional’, defying the traditional notion of the ‘North–South relationship’ as one of ‘uni‐directional’ dependence.     

Banking systems,innovations, intellectual property protections,and financial markets: Evidence from China

One unique feature of the emerging economies in Asia is the rich variation in the development of financial systems and technological sectors across different geographical areas. This unbalanced evolution provides us a potentially more powerful setting to investigate the dynamics among banking systems, innovations, intellectual property (IP) protections, and stock market reactions that are especially useful in understanding the policy–finance–innovation nexus in emerging economies. Using newly available data from China, this study confirms the nurturing role of financial systems on innovations, the value-enhancing function of firms' innovative activities, and the lead–lag predictive role of innovations on stock returns, in the context of emerging economies. More importantly, the study documents that stronger provincial IP protections reduce patent piracy and hence enhance local firms' market values.     

Financial liberalization and stock markets efficiency: New evidence from emerging economies

This paper aims to assess the impact of financial liberalization on the degree of informational efficiency in emerging stock markets while considering three types of financial crises, i.e. banking, currency and twin crises. To this end, a treatment effects model with time-varying parameters is estimated for 13 emerging economies from January 1986 to December 2008. Empirical results show that there is a greater efficiency in recent years and that financial liberalization not only improves the degree of efficiency but also reduces the probability of financial crises. They also suggest that improving efficiency depends upon several internal characteristics.     

Impact of board gender diversity on dividend payments: Evidence from some emerging economies

This study investigates the impact of board gender diversity on dividend payments in the context of emerging economies. Using a dataset of listed firms from India, China and Russia over the period 2007–2014, we find strong and robust evidence indicating that board gender diversity is negatively related to cash dividend payments in all emerging economies. Moreover, we find that state-ownership positively moderates the relationship between gender diversity and dividend payments. However, this effect is observed only for China and Russia. In additional analyses, we find that the negative link between board gender diversity and dividend payments is more pronounced during the financial crisis. However, the moderating role of state-ownership does not remain significant during the financial crisis.     

Stock markets in the new world order

The dramatic expansion of capital markets in emerging economies the world over is far from a recent, isolated occurrence. As David Hale observes, this is less a new development, and much more akin to the international financial environment that flourished prior to the First World War. It is a phenomena resulting from the rebirth of liberal economic ideas in many developing countries, the expanded role of securitized forms of financial intermediation everywhere and a search for higher asset returns by investors in the mature industrial countries. These developments provide further confirmation that the 1990s will ultimately be remembered not only as the era of emerging markets, but as the decade in which global capitalism returned to its pre-1914 frontiers.     

An Exploratory Cross-Cultural Analysis of Marketing Ethics: The Case of Turkish,Thai, and American Businesspeople

Although a number of studies have shown that corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities often lead to greater organisational performance in western developed economies, researchers are yet to examine the strategic value of CSR in emerging economies. Using survey data from 280 firms operating in Dubai, this study examines the link between CSR activities and organisational performance. The results show that CSR has a positive relationship with all three measures of organisational performance: financial performance, employee commitment, and corporate reputation. These results reinforce the accumulating body of empirical support for the positive impact of CSR on performance and challenge the dominant assumption that, given the weak institutional framework in emerging economies, CSR activities drain resources and compromise firms’ competitiveness.     

Regional Cooperation Toward Green Asia: Trade in Low Carbon Goods

Governments in the Asian region have been taking actions in the form of voluntary targets and policy commitments to improve the production and use of low carbon goods (LCG). However, these commitments are often challenged by many constraints, such as technological barriers and financial deficiencies. Within this context, the main objective of this study is to measure the potential of major emerging Asian economies for exports in LCG under the grand regional coalition, partial regional coalition, and standalone scenarios. The analysis indicates that emerging Asian economies will increase their export potential in LCG more under the grand coalition scenario.     

The Asian economy: current state of play and future prospects

The global financial crisis, the so-called great world recession and recovery have had a serious impact on the Asian and global economies. Together, they managed to engender significant transformation in the contours of both the Asian and global economies. For instance, Asian economies presently depend less on markets in the advanced industrial economies and, due to their enlarging markets, can and did make a substantive contribution to the global recovery. They spearheaded the economic recovery from the global financial crisis. The post-crisis Asian economy is the third pole of the global economy. Significantly, the emerging market economies of Asia did not magnify the external shock this time and performed more like the advanced industrial economies. After a robust recovery in 2010, growth became somewhat subdued in 2011. Projections show that economic performance in the region in 2012 will not be very different from that in 2011 (see WB [World Bank] 2012).