The Costs of Compliance: A CGE Assessment of Canada’s Policy Options under the Kyoto Protocol

Canada has committed itself under the Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse gas emissions between 2008 and 2012 on average by six per cent from the base 1990 level. As of 2009, however, Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions are far above its 1990 level which calls for stringent short‐term policy measures if Canada is to meet its legally binding commitment. This paper uses a multi‐region, multi‐commodity static general equilibrium model to quantify the economic impacts of alternative compliance strategies for Canada in the context of climate policies undertaken by other Kyoto parties. The numerical results confirm fears by Canadian policymakers of substantial economic adjustment costs should Canada fulfill its Kyoto commitments solely through domestic action. However, a rigorous use of the project‐based CDM on top of international emissions trading could allow Canada to live up to its international climate policy commitment at politically much more tolerable costs.     

Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol on climate change obliges the industrialized countries to initiate the international effort of abating anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. If such an initiative is to be taken, the associated competitive effects may lead to significant relocation of developed countries' energy-intensive production. This paper examines this issue. I adopt an oligopolistic structure combined with increasing returns to scale production technologies to represent the strategic interaction among the firms producing energy-intensive products. This representation is then embedded within a multi-regional computable general equilibrium model, which in turn is used for quantifying these relocational effects. The results suggest that significant relocation of energy-intensive industries away from the OECD may occur, depending on the type of market structure, with leakage rates as high as 130%, in which case GHG control policies in the industrialized countries actually lead to higher global emissions.     

Climate policy challenges after the Kyoto Protocol enters into force

The Kyoto Protocol on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions can finally come into force now that Russia has signed it. What has been the trend of emissions in the individual industrial countries in recent years? What options do the countries have? What EU strategy should be chosen for the coming negotiations on the climate regime after 2012?     

Canada Finance Minster： Welcome China＇s Investment in Canada

To forward the relationship between China and Canada in financial and trade sectors and strengthen the cooperation in avoiding the worse impact of international financial crisis, Canadian financial high-level leaders involving Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, Canada＇s Minister of Finance Jim Flaherty, Federal Superintendent of Financial Institutions Julie Dickson, as well as five major banks and the two biggest insurance companies in Canada, who are looking to strengthen and expand business ties with China, visited China from August 8 to August 14, 2009. Also they send warm invitations to China enterprises to invest and to be listed in Canada. This visit is a preparation for Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper＇s coming visit to China in November.     

中欧贸易隐含碳及政策启示——基于投入产出模型的实证研究

虽然欧盟一直是节能减排的积极倡导者和实践者,但如果欧盟各国通过减少国内生产,增加从中国的进口而实现其减排目标,则其承诺将是毫无意义的。采用投入产出法对中欧贸易隐含碳进行结构分解分析,结果表明:1995—2010年,中国对欧盟净出口隐含碳占到中国总排放量的3.07%～8.41%;技术效应和结构效应都有利于减少碳排放,但是它们却不足以抵消规模效应所导致的碳排放增加。因此,欧盟应对中国的部分碳排放负责,中国则需加大低碳技术的应用,改善生产结构和贸易结构。     

国际碳排放权交易价格决定与最优出口规模研究

本文分析了总量控制和交易、基准排放和信用两种碳排放权交易体系中的价格决定原理,并以边际减排成本等于市场均衡价格为基础,分析《京都议定书》框架下国际碳排放权交易规模和利益分配不公等情况;然后构建两阶段模型,讨论“非附件B国家”碳排放权出口规模的决定因素及其影响效应,并通过估测中国碳排放权出口规模决定因素的函数值或参数值,计算中国第1承诺期的最优出口量;最后提出中国参与国际碳排放权交易的政策建议。     

碳交易生产模型述评及应用探讨

随着《京都议定书》陆续在各国生效,碳交易应运而生并迅速得到发展。我国是国际碳排放权的主要供给方,但参与交易尚处于CDM项目阶段并且没有形成自己的交易体系,这不利于在碳国际市场上争夺定价权。低碳和减排是目前国际趋势,因此,开展我国的碳交易问题研究尤为必要和迫切。本文对Putty-Clay Vintage这一碳交易生产函数模型进行述评,揭示该模型的主要观点、贡献和缺陷,并结合我国国情,从企业生产优化安排、金融市场发展、国家宏观经济和排放配额分配角度探讨该模型在我国碳交易中的应用。     

产品碳足迹——后京都时代的新型贸易壁垒

2008年起,各主要发达国家不约而同地开始在国内制定碳足迹标准、推行碳足迹标签制度。在国际层面,国际标准化组织也积极推动碳足迹标准制定工作。2008年起,国际标准化组织年开始着手制定产品碳足迹国际标准ISO14067,预计于2011年完成。但这一标准未能如期公布,目前仍在国际标准化组织的讨论议程之中。①碳足迹不仅是发达国家为了实现向低碳社会转变的重要手段,在京都议定书第一承诺期到期且国际协议尚未达成一致的情况下,也有可能成为发达国家对发展中国家构筑的一道重要贸易壁垒。     

欧盟15个成员国开始行动以满足京都议定书目标

欧盟观察报道，15个欧盟最“老”的成员国已经着手开始温室气体减排工作，以满足他们签署的1997年京都议定书设定的目标。这15个成员国作为一个整体，不包含2004年和2007年新加入的成员，应履行其集体的削减温室气体排放量的目标，即与1990年（基准年）相比在2008—2012年期间减少其温室气体排放量的8％。尽管丹麦、意大利和西班牙未能如期完成减排，但是其他15个成员国的表现足以完成集体目标。     

国际碳贸易价格波动对可再生能源投资的影响机制——基于实物期权理论的分析

有效利用可再生能源是促进节能减排实现绿色循环经济的重要手段。目前,可再生能源技术成本仍高于传统能源技术,因而需要获得额外的经济激励以增加其投资。《京都议定书》所建立的国际碳贸易体系是支持发展中国家实现碳减排的重要机制,但该贸易体系发展前景不明确,这将深刻影响我国可再生能源投资。本文分析和揭示了国际碳贸易体系的不确定性对可再生能源投资决策的影响,在此基础上提出了分别存在于可再生能源项目前期规划阶段和项目建设阶段的增长期权和延迟期权;通过构建两阶段期权模型研究国际碳价格波动下企业延迟投资的灵活性,并量化确定可再生能源项目投资期权价值,采用Monte-Carlo仿真分析法进一步验证模型,推导得出国际碳价格波动对可再生能源项目投资的作用机制。     

The effect of within-country inequality on international trade and investment agreements

There is anecdotal evidence suggesting that those losing from globalization influence policy makers to decrease the openness of their countries to globalization, as evidenced by signing international trade and investment agreements. Surprisingly, this influence has never been examined empirically. This study provides novel empirical evidence demonstrating that greater within-country inequality, our proxy for 'perceived losses' from globalization, decreases countries' propensity to sign regional trade and investment agreements. Our findings support the argument that the existence of 'losers' from globalization can be detrimental for continued globalization. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first extensive econometric empirical evidence of the influence of within-country inequality on countries' willingness to sign international trade and investment agreements, as means to increase their global economic integration.     

Business Responses to Climate Change Regulation in Canada and Germany: Lessons for MNCs from Emerging Economies

This article proposes a novel mapping of the complex relationship between business ethics and regulation, by suggesting five distinct ways in which business ethics and regulation may intersect. The framework is applied to a comparative case study of business responses to climate change regulation in Canada and Germany, both signatories to the Kyoto Protocol. Both countries represent distinctly different approaches which yield significant lessons for emerging economies. We also analyze the specific role of large multinational corporations in this process.     

Advances in Drama Theory for Managing Global Hazards and Disasters. Part II: Coping with Global Climate Change and Environmental Catastrophe

We explore issues of group decision making for reducing global environmental risk, with particular reference to the political dynamics surrounding international agreements on tackling climate change. Continuing political delays in deciding to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may make it necessary to resort to high risk and controversial geo-engineering solutions, such as injecting large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, despite the unforeseen, potentially catastrophic consequences that these entail. Advances in drama theory (dt.2) are used to analyze the prospects for agreement on reducing or stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions, following the Bali agreement of December 2007. It is concluded that Western nations and emerging economies are behaving like players in a game of “chicken”, each expecting the other to take on the main burden of emissions reduction. We judge it unlikely that either will play a full part until it is too late for emissions reduction alone to avert environmental catastrophe. At that point, parties will resort to geo-engineering “fixes”, despite the risks. However, all such forecasts are conditional on decisions made and attitudes taken by political leaders and the public. Our analysis serves to pinpoint the relevant decisions and attitudes.     

Strategy,Complexity and Cooperation: The Sino-American Climate Regime

The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is applied to a potential climate negotiation between the United States of America (USA) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in order to gain strategic insights into how a successful agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could be reached. In light of the failure of many nations to meet their expected Kyoto Protocol emission reduction targets and the lack of involvement of the world’s greatest emitters of airborne pollutants, the USA and PRC, there is a need to determine successful strategies for combating climate change. The issues surrounding the potential implementation of a bilateral agreement between the USA and PRC are systematically analyzed. Information gathered about the decision makers, options and preferences within the potential negotiations is utilized to create a valid conflict model which is used as a basis for carrying out strategic analyses. Moreover, a novel method is implemented within the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution to gain insights into the impact of attitudes on these negotiations. The strategic findings reflect reasonably well what actually occurred in November 2014 when the USA and PRC negotiated a bilateral deal.     

An Empirical Investigation of Trade Credit Demand

This paper investigates the motivations for a firm's demand for trade credit. Demand for credit is modelled as a function of transaction costs motivations, financing motivations, operational considerations, seller compliance issues and supplier marketing, whilst controlling for the firm's business environment and for firm characteristics such as size and industry. This paper builds on previous studies by considering a wider range of factors that can affect trade credit demand holistically on a single sample. It appears that the use of trade credit is widespread, and that it is generally perceived as an important short term financing option, although the availability of trade credit is not a major influence on supplier choice. The level of a firm's trade credit demand is found to be significantly influenced by transaction costs, financing, operational issues, marketing activities by suppliers, the firm's investment in trade debtors and firm size.     

Russia’s reluctance to ratify Kyoto: an economic analysis

It became apparent at the UN World Climate Change Conference, which took place from September 29 to October 3 in Moscow at the invitation of the Russian government, that ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by the Russian Federation is, at the least, uncertain. This could mean that the first international climate treaty will not become legally binding. What is the economic rationale behind Russian climate policy? What would be the effect of non-ratification?     

Domestic Climate Policies and the WTO

The Kyoto Protocol gives Annex 1 countries considerable flexibility in the choice of domestic policies to meet their emissions commitments. Possible climate policies include carbon/energy taxes, subsidies, energy efficiency standards, eco‐labels, and government procurement policies. In order to meet their targets with minimum adverse effects on their economies, Annex 1 governments with differentiated legal and political systems are highly likely to pursue these policies that may have the potential to bring them into conflict with their WTO obligations. This paper explores the potential interaction between these domestic climate policies and WTO rules. It argues that their potential conflicts can be avoided or at least minimised if WTO rules are carefully scrutinised, and efforts are made early on to ensure that the proposed climate policies comply with them. It suggests an early process of pursuing consultations between WTO members and the Parties to the Climate Change Convention and points to the need of further exploring ways to enhance synergies between the trade and climate regimes.     

Influence factors of trust building in cooperation agreements

Trust is a key success factor in cooperation agreements. Therefore, identifying the factors that make the greatest contribution toward building trust is fundamental for an understanding of cooperation agreements. This paper analyzes two factors that might contribute to generating trust for successful agreements during the initial stages of the relationship. These factors are the partner's reputation and prior partnering experience. The study aims to confirm and complete the understanding of the relationship between these two variables and the success of cooperation agreements, by examining the indirect effect, through trust building, that these factors have on the success of agreements. The study analyzes these relationships by applying a structural equation model on the basis of partial least squares (PLS) methodology. The total impact of previous cooperation experience and the partner's reputation on the success of cooperation agreements is strong, positive, and significant.