服务贸易对美国经常账户赤字的影响——基于豪斯克-麦奇收入不对称效应的验证

本文尝试构建一个基于H-M效应的模型,分析H-M效应对美国经常账户赤字变化的影响机制。并就该模型对美国经常账户赤字变化的解释能力进行验证,结果表明H-M效应对美国经常账户赤字的变化趋势具有较好的解释力。在此基础上,本文应用1986-2005年的数据分别估算了美国商品和服务品进出口收入弹性系数。估算结果显示,与商品进出口收入弹性系数相反,美国服务出口的收入弹性系数大于进口的收入弹性系数。为了探讨服务贸易对美国经常账户赤字的影响,应用基于H-M效应的模型分析美国服务贸易的发展对其经常账户赤字变化的影响。     

The Effect of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on the Trade of Educational Services

This article finds that high levels of real exchange rate volatility between two trading partners significantly decrease the amount of educational services traded. Many academic institutions are actively looking to expand exports of educational services as a means of increasing revenues. Internal policies that reduce real exchange rate uncertainty may help encourage trade of educational services between countries where volatility is high. The discovery that real exchange rate volatility serves as a significant barrier to attracting educational export opportunities to certain countries underscores an obstacle that should and/or could be addressed as academic institutions strive to expand their international enrollments.     

The exchange regime and trade balance in Turkey

Over the last 15 years, high trade deficits have become a source of external vulnerability for the relatively stabilized Turkish economy. This corresponds to the period where authorities have been following a floating exchange rate regime. Thus, this study aims to empirically show whether the adopted exchange rate regime has an impact on the trade balance for the period of 1987 Q1 to 2015 Q2. Estimation results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the real effective exchange rate and trade balance under both fixed and floating regimes in Turkey, but there is no evidence for the J-curve hypothesis.     

Cost disease in service sector

A higher growth rate of the service sector prices, rather than prices in the manufacturing sector, through time is known as cost disease in the service sector. This paper investigates supply and demand-side reasons for cost disease. First, we present an analysis of the supply side of the cost disease, when services and manufacturing play their role both in the intermediate and final demand. Second, we consider a CES utility function for the consumer, which is a function of two commodity services and manufacturing. The results indicate that there are two reasons for cost disease to occur from the supply side in an economy: first, when the growth rate of total factor productivity and technological progress in services is less than that in the manufacturing sector, and second, when the elasticity of substitution between labor and manufacturing input in the services production function is large and elasticity of substitution in manufacturing production function is small. From the demand side, the result shows that the cost disease occurred if the growth rate of the income elasticity of service is more than the manufacturing sector through time.     

交易成本与真实汇率的波动率——基于国际宏观经济模型的分析

文章重点论述了交易成本对真实汇率波动性的影响。基于Eaton和Kortum(2002)的思想,将两国和多国之间的Ricardian贸易模型进行改进,用于对宏观经济模型的分析,表明国家之间双边真实汇率的波动程度取决于各国生产力的比较优势和贸易国的交易成本。最后我们利用1980-2000年间巨大的跨境面板数据检验并支持了文章的这一结论。     

Foreign exchange rate and trade balance dynamics in East African countries

This study investigates the effects of real exchange rate on trade balance in East African countries. In contrast to past studies that have often focused on one country in the region and adopted traditional empirical methods that are subject to shortcomings, the present study employed the ARDL procedure and investigated the issue in 10 East African countries. The main results are as follows. First, real exchange depreciation significantly improves trade balance for four countries in individual country estimations, as well as in panel estimation. Second, the elasticity of trade balance with respect to real exchange rate is inelastic. Elasticity slightly increases after exchange rate liberalization but remains inelastic. Third, significant short-run fall was not found for trade balance, which suggests lack of evidence for J-curve relationship     

The value of market access and national treatment commitments in services trade agreements

This paper looks at market access and national treatment commitments for services in the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) and in 95 regional trade agreements (RTAs) involving the countries that are covered in the OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI). The objective is to quantify the impact of legal bindings on trade in services that result from a reduction in the uncertainty faced by exporters. Bilateral bindings indices are created for five broad service sectors (professional services, computer services, telecoms, financial services and transport services). They indicate how close the sector is from a fully bound regime with no possibility to introduce any new trade barrier, by comparing commitments with the actual trade regime. These bilateral indices are then tested over the period 2000–2014 in a structural gravity model. Despite differences across sectors, the results confirm that the legal bindings typically found in services trade agreements tend to have a positive impact on exports even if no actual liberalisation takes place.     

基于马歇尔—勒纳条件的中国茶叶贸易收支研究

马歇尔—勒纳条件是分析汇率变动对贸易收支影响的重要理论。本文采用我国1986～2008年茶叶进出口的序列数据,通过分析我国对不同经济体的茶叶进出口需求弹性,并构建实际有效汇率等因素与茶叶贸易收支的计量模型,研究了我国茶叶进出口与马歇尔—勒纳条件间的满足关系。研究表明,我国与不同国家的茶叶贸易收支受汇率变动的影响不同;就我国茶叶对外贸易总体而言,茶叶进口价格下降会增加进口额,出口价格上升会增加出口额;而人民币升值会改善我国茶叶贸易收支,人民币贬值会恶化我国茶叶贸易收支,且进出口需求弹性之和小于1。因此,我国茶叶贸易收支反向符合马歇尔—勒纳条件,这为汇率波动背景下科学处理茶叶贸易问题提供了重要的理论指导。     

我国工业制成品贸易条件的影响因素分析

本文运用1981-2006年的数据,对我国工业制成品的价格贸易条件、收入贸易条件和单要素贸易条件的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:技术进步与我国工业制成品的价格贸易条件和收入贸易条件呈显著正相关关系,人均资本存量与收入贸易条件呈显著负相关关系,资本技术密集型产品出口占工业制成品出口的比例与价格贸易条件呈显著正相关关系;经济增长与收入贸易条件、单要素贸易条件呈显著正相关关系,累积外国直接投资占国内资本存量的比例与价格贸易条件和收入贸易条件呈显著负相关关系;以直接标价法表示的实际汇率变动与三种贸易条件均呈显著负相关关系。本文在此基础上提出了相关的政策建议。     

“H-M-K假说”的检验——基于中国贸易结构数据的实证研究

“H-M-K假说”或克鲁格曼“45度规则”指出,对于经济处于快速增长的国家而言,如果该国与世界其它国家的经济增长率之比等于该国出口需求收入弹性与进口需求收入弹性之比,该国的实际汇率往往不会出现持续的贬值或升值趋势。本文首先拓展了该理论,得出一个与“45度规则”等价但更简洁的理论结论,然后对中国的情况进行了实证检验,检验结果表明:中国不符合“H-M-K假说”之结论。通过对中国进出口商品结构以及日本和中国双边贸易结构的分析,我们认为造成中国不符合“45度规则”的主要原因在于:我国出口商品结构中,初级产品、低附加值产品所占比重过大,高技术含量、高附加值产品占比过小,而进口商品结构则刚好相反。     

我国出口汇率弹性与收入弹性估算:1995-2009

利用1995-2009年我国向前18大贸易伙伴出口的月度数据,采用协整技术计算我国出口的长期汇率弹性和收入弹性,并进一步利用脉冲响应计算出口的中短期汇率弹性,结果显示人民币名义汇率对双边贸易出口影响较为显著,但对总出口影响可能不显著。从影响力比较来看,进口方GDP对我国出口的影响明显超过汇率。     

贸易自由化福利收益模型和我国服务贸易发展的现实选择

通过构建福利收益模型,将服务贸易自由化和货物贸易自由化的收益进行比较,可得出如下结论:服务贸易自由化比货物贸易自由化的收益大。以发展服务贸易为主,实现服务贸易的自由化是贸易自由化发展的高级阶段,但我国目前的服务贸易发展水平还不具备这种条件。针对我国服务贸易及服务业中存在的问题,本文为提高服务贸易竞争力、促进服务贸易自由化提出了相应的政策建议。     

Asymmetric cointegration with threshold adjustment model of exchange rates and the trade balance in Turkey

This paper aims to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship between the trade balance and exchange rates in Turkey using the asymmetric error correction model with threshold cointegration. The results provide new evidence for the asymmetric long-run relationship between the trade balance and exchange rates. Besides, deviations from the long-run equilibrium due to a relative increase in real exchange rates have a lower speed of adjustment in comparison to the deviations caused by a relative decrease in real exchange rates.     

The role of processing trade in exporters' responses to exchange rate: Evidence from China

Processing trade is an important exporting mode for many countries developed by the export-oriented industrialisation such as 1960s Japan, 1990s Korea and 2000s China. Exporters who rely on processing trade for foreign profits do not enjoy much market power, and hence care more about exchange rate changes. We develop a model to illustrate how processing trade affects exporters' responses to exchange rate fluctuations. The model suggests that the elasticity of export price with respect to exchange rate for processing-trade exporters is greater than that of the ordinary-trade exporters, while the elasticity of export quantity of processing-trade exporters is smaller compared to their ordinary-trade counterparts. Most developing countries' governments offer processing-trade exporters better tax/tariff reduction policy to encourage exporting, which grants processing-trade exporters additional advantage to adjust more on export price and less on quantity when facing changes in exchange rate and therefore causes their different responses to exchange rate fluctuations. We find strong empirical supports by studying the data from China, which is the largest developing country and biggest processing-trade exporter.     

人民币实际有效汇率与中国工业制成品对外贸易平衡的长期关系分析

以双边名义汇率为基础 ,对 1978～ 1999年期间人民币的名义和实际有效汇率指数进行测算 ,利用协整技术分析中国工业制成品对贸易平衡指标与我国实际国内生产总值、国外实际收入及人民币实际有效汇率之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系 ,实际的人民币贬值改善了我国工业制成品对外贸易平衡状况。     

中国参与区域服务贸易自由化机制与对策研究

中国对外签订区域服务贸易协议的对象多数来自于亚洲和拉美的发展中经济体,呈现出从"货物先行"向"货服并行"转变的趋势。在区域服务贸易自由化机制设计方面,中国引入了四大创新因素:服务贸易规则和投资规则"分立"构架且各自的适用范围界定明确;尝试构建服务贸易紧急保障制度;设置更加严格的服务贸易政策审议机制;针对特定缔约对象采取相对宽泛的服务原产地规则。中国应该从国内规制改革和服务部门开放顺序选择方面做好战略谋划与策略应对。     

Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia: The role of value‐added trade

We empirically investigate the relationship between business cycle synchronisation and the role of value‐added trade focusing on a panel of 12 Asian countries from 1995 to 2011. In addition, we propose the inclusion of two novel determinants, for example external value‐added trade intensity and exchange rate volatility and also saturate our empirical model with other common determinants found in the literature. Our findings first confirm that value‐added trade intensity, rather than gross trade intensity, has a sizable, positive and statistically significant impact on synchronisation among East Asian countries. Second, the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative effect on the business cycle synchronisation, which verifies that the exchange rate volatility is another important determinant of business cycle synchronisation. Our findings have important implications for the monetary cooperation in the region: strengthening trade linkage could reduce the costs of monetary cooperation by increasing the incidence of symmetric shocks.     

The Effects of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance and Domestic Output: A Case of Malaysia

The main objective of this study is to determine the effects of real exchange rate changes on the real Malaysian trade balance and the domestic output during the pegged exchange rate regime, 1977:1–1998:2, using quarterly data. The cointegration results suggest that a real ringgit exchange rate depreciation improves the Malaysian balance of trade in the long run. The impulse response analysis suggests that the effects of a depreciation of ringgit on the trade balance and domestic output are quite similar. A devaluation will initially improve the trade balance and domestic output, after which the trade balance starts to deteriorate and then the recession sets in, but subsequently both the trade balance and domestic output improve.     

Free trade agreement and transport service trade

This study investigates the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) on trade in transport services using OECD data from 2003 to 2006. Our analysis found that FTAs had a positive overall impact on transport services for multiple countries (i.e., 26 home and 56 partner countries). The resulting positive overall impact assures that, even with the challenges associated with different layers of services and the obstacles formed by generally low trade openness in the sector, the provisions in FTAs (e.g., national treatment and market access for goods and services) promote transport service trades. Our findings suggest that the provisions in FTAs encourage economic agents to increase engagement in transport services because of expanded openness of the physical movement of goods across international borders.     

生产性服务贸易自由化与制造业生产率提升：基于跨国数据的分析

生产性服务贸易自由化作为当前的一种主要的对外开放的形式,对国家制造业发展的影响还没有统一的理论和实证研究。文章通过构建理论模型研究生产性服务贸易自由化对制造业生产率影响假设,利用2008-2012年中的69个国家的跨国面板数据来对假设进行检验。通过理论和实证分析发现：生产性服务贸易的自由化可以促进国内制造业生产率的提升,但是提升的作用在不同的国家收入水平和生产性服务业部门间体现出差异性。从国家的收入水平差异来看,生产性服务贸易自由化对高收入国家的影响要大于低收入国家。对于不同生产性服务业部门的自由化影响来看,显著地影响制造业生产率的是金融和商务服务生产性服务业,运输和电信生产性服务业的影响较小且不显著。