INTRA-INDUSTRY SPECIALIZATION AND THE NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This article provides a detailed examination of changes in indicators of intra-industry specialization in manufactured goods in trade between the United States and Mexico over the first five years of the North American Free Trade Agreement. The analysis is conducted at the three-digit SITC level of industry aggregation. Many industries experienced large increases in intraindustry trade (IIT). Only nine industries experience declines in IIT. Changes in various indicators of intra-industry specialization suggest few U.S. industries are candidates for significant adjustment problems. Industries facing potential adjustment pressures account for less than one-fourth of total U.S. imports from Mexico. These findings should lessen opposition to greater regional economic integration in the Western Hemisphere by easing fears that entire industries and jobs will disappear.     

电子商务对《服务贸易总协定》的冲击——兼论电子商务多边贸易规则的建立

目前电子商务已成为WTO重要议题。在WTO各相关领域中 ,电子商务对《服务贸易总协定》(GATS)的影响和冲击最大。文章分析了电子商务给GATS的分类、适用范围及GATS的一般义务和特定承诺带来的冲击 ,并提出了建立电子商务多边规则的框架设想和原则建议。     

THE IMPACT OF CURRENCY INCONVERTIBILITY ON TRADE FLOWS

This study investigates whether the relationship between the real exchange rate and trade volumes (exports, imports, and the trade balance) differs for countries with and without import restrictions. A theoretical model points out that in countries with import restrictions, the volume of imports is often constrained by the export income. A real depreciation should stimulate exports and then also stimulate imports, as the volume of exports limits the volume of imports. Empirical evidence for a large international sample confirms that trade elasticities with respect to the real exchange rate importantly depend on the presence of trade restrictions. This suggests that earlier work in this area that ignored the importance of such restrictions has been misleading.     

DETERMINANTS OF TRADE: THE CASE OF MEXICO

This article explains the extent of intra-industry trade (IIT) in Mexico's foreign trade, and tests empirically various country-specific hypotheses concerning the determinants of intra-industry trade between Mexico and its major trading partners. The results of the econometric analysis corroborate the predictions of the theoretical models. The results indicate that the extent of Mexican intra-industry trade is positively correlated with the average income levels, average country size, trade intensity, trade orientation, the existence of a common border, the existence of a common language, and the participation in regional integration schemes, while it is negatively correlated with income inequality, inequality in country size, distance, and trade imbalance.     

EXPLORING THE SUCCESS OF EXPATRIATES OF U.S. MULTINATIONAL FIRMS IN MEXICO

To examine U.S. multinational corporations, this research utilizes a multivariate model to differentiate among IHRM practices and their impact on U.S. expatriate performance. Questionnaires sent to 481 corporations combined with an analysis of the six independent variables, including selection criteria, cross-cultural training, and inability of spouses to adjust help us to understand U.S. expatriate rates of success and failure in Mexico. While, to a considerable degree, an IHRM model based on mainstream literature can predict U.S. expatriate success and failure rates, this research demonstrates the significant discrepancies that exist when comparing the results of the relationship of each variable individually.     

关于中国实施自由贸易区战略的思考

在党的第十七届代表大会上,胡锦涛总书记在十七大报告有关今后经济发展任务部分提出,要"实施自由贸易区战略".这个提法无论是在党的文件,还是政府的文件里面,都是第一次.从积极参与区域经济合作的提法到明确提出"实施自由贸易区战略",意味着党和政府已经正式把参与区域经济合作与发展自由贸易区上升到国家战略层面,这必将对未来我国的自由贸易区建设进程产生重要推动作用.     

世界经济对我国外经贸发展的影响

当前"走出去"战略实施进入了一个新的阶段,既面临难得的发展机遇,也面临着安全、风险等方面的挑战。在指导企业防范安全风险方面,要构建一套"走出去"风险防控体系。     

"制造服务",制造还是服务——评《国际收支手册》修订对中国贸易平衡的影响

《国际收支手册》2008年修订本将加工贸易从货物转移到服务项下,谓之日“制造服务”,本文对此作出理论上的诠释。核算口径对中国贸易平衡的影响到底有多大,本文依据翔实资料进行测算。对测算结果的分析,得出影响虽然不小,但不会颠覆货物贸易平衡格局的结论。     

AGGREGATE SUPPLY,DOMESTIC ABSORPTION,AND TERMS OF TRADE: A STRUCTURAL DECOMPOSITION OF THE U.S. TRADE BALANCE

Using an intertemporal model as a reference, this article decomposes U.S. trade balance movements into parts driven by supply shocks, demand shocks, and relative price shocks. In identifying structural shocks, we propose a new type of long-run restriction that extends the previous structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) literature, and demonstrate its relationship to other identifying schemes. Empirical results indicate that relative price shocks and demand shocks are important in the short run while demand and supply shocks dominate in the long run in explaining the U.S. trade balance.     

A GRAVITY STUDY OF THE PROPOSED CHINA-ASEAN FREE TRADE AREA

The proposed China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) has drawn much interest both at the regional and international level. This interest is justified given the recent surge in regional trade agreements. The implications the FTA will have for the less developed economies of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam (the CLMV economies) are of concern. How would trade between the integrating area and the rest of the world be affected? Will there be net trade creation or net trade diversion effects? What trading partners are likely to loose or gain following formation of the FTA in 2010? These are some of the issues that this article addresses by way of the Gravity Model of trade.     

AN ERROR CORRECTION ANALYSIS OF U.S.-MEXICO TRADE FLOWS

Abstract

Estimation of bilateral trade elasticities is less well documented than is the case for aggregate trade flows. This study estimates bilateral trade equations for Mexico and the United States. The empirical analysis is carried out using an error correction approach that allows imports and exports to adjust over time to changes in the independent variables that affect the demand for them. Results obtained indicate that imports and exports between the two neighbors react heterogeneously to variations in domestic prices, foreign prices, and currency values. Lag structures between the two trade equations also differ from each other.     

中美贸易失衡的最大得益者:美国企业和消费者——兼析不同经济发展水平国家在全球化中的得益情况

今年一季度末中国外汇储备已高达8751亿美元,超过日本成为外汇储备世界第一的国家.与中国的巨额贸易盈余形成鲜明对比的是美国的贸易逆差的不断攀升,去年达到7000多亿美元,占美国GDP的6%,中美贸易的巨大反差引起了各界的关注和忧虑.     

从贸易数据看当前世界贸易发展的新特点

进入21世纪以来,世界贸易发展随着世界经济整体走势的变化而波动.特别是在过去的四年中,世界经济的持续高速增长极大地改善了国际贸易环境,为贸易的快速发展提供了坚实基础和广阔空间,而同时贸易也成为推动经济增长的重要驱动力量和源泉.初步预计,2007年和2008年在经济增长的刺激下,世界贸易将继续呈现较快增长的态势.     

中关贸易失衡的最大得益者：美国企业和消费者——兼析不同经济发展水平国家在全球化中的得益情况

今年一季度末中国外汇储备已高达8751亿美元，超过日本成为外汇储备世界第一的国家。与中国的巨额贸易盈余形成鲜明对比的是美国的贸易逆差的不断攀升，去年达到7000多亿美元，占美国GDP的6％，中美贸易的巨大反差引起了各界的关注和忧虑。在这种情况下，美国国内各种贸易保护主义的势力又开始粉墨登场，故弄玄虚，污蔑中国在对美经济关系中使用“不干净的手段”和“不公平的贸易措施”，要求中国大幅升高人民币汇率和提高人民币汇率机制的灵活性，并扬言对中国征收惩罚性关税和把中国列为汇率操纵国家，甚至相关法案都炮制出台了。     

APEC贸易自由化与釜山路线图

2005年11月APEC釜山部长级会议通过了高官会提交的"茂物目标实施进程的中期评估-实现茂物目标的釜山路线图"(简称"釜山路线图").该路线图共包括四部分:概述、成就、机遇与挑战、实现茂物目标的釜山路线图.     

LPEC贸易自由化与釜山路线图

2005年11月APEC釜山部长级会议通过了高官会提交的“茂物目标实施进程的中期评估一实现茂物目标的釜山路线图”（简称“釜山路线图”）。该路线图共包括四部分：概述、成就、机遇与挑战、实现茂物目标的釜山路线图。     

美国服务贸易发展的现状、原因及对我国的启示

随着经济服务化程度的深化,服务业和服务贸易在一国经济中的地位日益重要。各国争先把服务经济作为发展本国经济的重中之重。其中美国更是服务经济发展的典范。本章从分析美国服务贸易的现状和特点入手,揭示其发展的原因,以期望从中找到为我国服务贸易发展所借鉴的经验。     

中国—东盟自由贸易区建设的利益分析及对策研究

文章分析说明了我国已经具备加入自由贸易区的条件,重点分析了中国—东盟自由贸易区的收益及所面临的问题,认为加入自由贸易区是中国经济发展的必然要求,应积极推动自由贸易区的建设。结合中国—东盟自由贸易区的建设现状,提出了一些具体的政策建议。     

文化贸易在自由竞争与多样性保护下的发展博弈

在世界贸易组织的框架下,为适应贸易自由竞争的原则,中国文化产业的对外开放势所必然。但是,因文化本身的特殊性,文化贸易仅在国际协定的规则下发展还不够,还需有文化例外对其加以保护。作为文化产业相对落后的国家,中国文化贸易的适度保护是文化产业发展的内在要求,中国文化贸易在博弈中求发展。