Modelling the impact of non-tariff measures on supply chains in ASEAN

This paper explores the impact of reducing non-tariff measures (NTMs) in major ASEAN countries. New econometric estimates of the impact of different types of NTMs are used in a global supply chain model to separately model the effects on intermediate products and those sold to final consumers. We also distinguish between whether the NTM cost burden is directed at exporters or importers. This paper makes important advances in modelling the heterogeneity of NTMs, offering much richer policy analysis of the impact of NTMs on supply chains in the Asia-Pacific region than has previously been possible. We illustrate the benefits, both to the major ASEAN countries and to their trading partners, from the partial liberalisation by ASEAN countries of their most trade distorting types of NTMs. Such liberalisation increases the GDP and welfare of all countries, with the effect particularly pronounced for the major ASEAN countries themselves, especially Vietnam and the Philippines. As trade in plant products and animal products is particularly affected by NTMs, these sectors show the largest expansion of trade.     

非关税措施量化公式评价

与直接可以用税率高低来度量其保护程度的关税不一样,非关税措施是一种隐蔽的难以直接度量其保护作用的贸易保护主义手段。本文评价了近年来国外普遍采用的非关税措施保护作用的量化方法,包括频度——类型测算法、价格对比测算法、支持率测算法的设计思路和运用状况,以便为不时发生的贸易争端和贸易谈判提供可以用来判断进口国非关税措施保护程度的分析工具。     

Internal Determinants Affecting Interest in Exporting:

Research on the export behavior of the nonexporting firms has remained limited in developing nations. Therefore, there is little factual information about their export behavior. The objective of the present study is to find out, if there are any structural differences between Turkish nonexporters, which are exploring the feasibility of exporting, and those which are not interested in exporting at all. Findings show that there is a significant relation between company size, management's foreign language proficiency, international orientation, firm's competitive advantages, dependence on imports and desire to sell abroad. However, a significant relation is not found for other internal determinants such as manager's age, company goal, capacity use and technology intensiveness. These findings and implications are of interest to public policy makers, foreign investors and academicians interested in comparative studies.     

The rise of the machines: Capital imports and real manufacturing wages in 57 nations

Outward-oriented policy reform has attracted a large number of academics to the study of the trade-labour market nexus. One of these fields has focused on capital intensive (machinery) imports and its effect on manufacturing wages. The skill-enhancing-trade (SET) hypothesis was put forth to explain a potential relationship where an inflow of capital imports results in increased demand for skilled labour and decreased that of unskilled labour, and thus resulted in a rise in skilled wages and a decrease in their unskilled counterparts. This study revisits this hypothesis with a panel from the manufacturing sector of 57 nations. We improve upon previous studies in a number of ways. We add developed nations to the sample and examine capital imports from rich countries as well as the rest of the world. This takes into account the prominence of vertical production networks in international trade. We adhere closely to the neo-classical trade model and employ definitions of skilled and unskilled workers that capture the production process of particular items. Finally, we fit a robust dynamic panel data model that accounts for the endogeneity of the determinants of trade and wages. In this way we test whether the SET hypothesis is generally applicable as opposed to previous studies which use an ad hoc selection of countries and variables. We find that the SET hypothesis is not driving changes in manufacturing wages. Instead, worker productivity and GDP per capita explain these labour market outcomes.     

Intermediary Products: FDI Strategies,Imports, Exports,and Trade Balances in Developed Economies

Has the relationship between the dominant investment motives of multinational enterprises (MNEs) and national trade balances, imports, and exports changed over time? A 1996 study hypothesized and found that the MNE market versus resource seeking investment motives in developed countries (DCs) resulted in different aggregate impacts on national trade balances, imports, and exports. In this study, we ask whether the increased use of intermediary products, a major change in the way MNEs conduct business, affect the previously found patterns. Because firm‐level data on intermediary products is not widely available across countries, we indirectly test their impact, hypothesizing that the rise in use of intermediary products has changed MNE investment motives in DCs, resulting in stronger relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI) and imports/exports in high‐FDI DCs but weaker links between FDI and national trade balances. Implications and future research directions are discussed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Economic Diplomacy and International Trade: ASEAN’s Quest to Value‐Claim

Utilising economic diplomacy theory, this study specifies a statistical model to reveal ASEAN members’ capacity to negotiate better international trade outcomes. Examining imports into ASEAN members from 134 nations between 1980 and 2001, we find that ASEAN’s diplomats were able to pursue more ‘value‐claiming’ in economic diplomacy than expected. While our results support the commonly accepted view in economic diplomacy that smaller nations are pressured to accept trade outcomes desired by larger nations, we also find support for a new perspective: smaller nations obtain more favourable trade outcomes, as members of a regional trade bloc, which cannot be achieved as individual nations. We find that ASEAN’s conversion to a fully fledged regional trade agreement in 1992 significantly enhanced this capacity. This study adds a different perspective to the substantial literature examining cases in trade and economic diplomacy.     

Non‐Tariff Measures,Specific Trade Concerns and Tariff Reduction

This paper studies the determinants of the recent proliferation of Specific Trade Concerns raised at the WTO on non‐tariff trade measures (NTMs), with a focus on sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) and technical barriers to trade (TBTs). Even though NTMs are imposed de jure to protect consumers from unhealthy products, they increase trade costs de facto. So, when tariff protection lowers, NTMs become effective barriers to trade and the exporting countries can complain at the dedicated committee at the WTO (STCs). Therefore, we study whether STCs are raised by exporting countries as a consequence of tariff reductions in importing countries, that is when non‐tariff measures become barriers to trade. Using a recent database on STCs over the period 1996–2010, we find empirical evidence that SPS and TBT concerns are raised by exporting country as a consequence of importer's tariff cut.     

A REASSESSMENT OF AGGREGATE IMPORT DEMAND FUNCTION IN THE ASEAN-5: A Cointegration Analysis

This study aims to reinvestigate the empirical evidence on the long-run relationship of aggregate import demand behavior for the ASEAN-5 founding nations. This study adopts the import demand equation that has been developed by Xu (2002). The results of bounds test (Pesaran et al., 2001) show the volume of imports, activity variable (national cash flow), and relative price of imports are cointegrated in Malaysia and Singapore. However, no empirical evidence supports that these variables are cointegrated in Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines. This study provides a relevant implication specifically that devaluation strengthens the balance of trade. Following the Marshall-Lerner condition, exchange rate policies such as devaluation, can used to improve trade balance in Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Thailand, but not in Indonesia.     

On the Incidence of US Tariffs

This paper provides evidence on the incidence of tariffs on products of export interest to developing countries by investigating the relationship between per capita incomes of US trading partners and tariff rates. It constitutes the first attempt to assess the incidence of tariffs imposed by the US on countries that span the entire range of per capita incomes. Average tariff rates are lower for the poorest and richest countries and higher for countries in the middle of the income distribution. This finding is not consistent with the widely held view that tariffs used by industrial nations bear more heavily on products of export interest to poorer developing countries than on imports from industrial nations. It is consistent with the tariff escalation pattern reported in earlier studies if advanced countries account for most products at the high end of the fabrication scale. Results show that poorest countries will find it difficult to escape tariffs by attaining higher levels of economic development.     

The Growth of Agricultural Protection in Europe in the 19th and 20th Centuries

(1247) Johan F. M. Swinnen Dramatic changes took place in agricultural policies in Europe in the 19th and 20th centuries. In the 1860s European nations agreed on a series of trade agreements which spread free trade across the continent. In the 1960s European nations concluded an international agreement which spread heavy government intervention and protection against imports across the continent. This paper quantifies these changes in protection over the course of a century, relates them to changes in policies, and offers a political economy explanation for the growth in agricultural protection in Europe.     

Successes and dangers of Japanese foreign trade strategy

Japan's high and increasing trade and current account surpluses have aroused in the other industrialized nations a growing fear of Far Eastern competition. Some countries consider that protectionist measures are the only suitable response to increasing imports from Japan. Japan's “unfair” conduct of its foreign trade is often cited as a reason for such a reaction. Is this reproach justified? What can be done to avert the dangers to both Japan's foreign trade and the world economy caused by this situation?     

局部地区冲突冲击了中国石油进口吗

文章利用1992～2018年中国从80个国家石油进口的非平衡面板数据,实证考察出口国发生局部地区冲突对中国石油进口的影响,并对其异质性特征和可能的影响机制予以识别。研究表明,出口国局部地区冲突会给中国石油进口带来显著的负向冲击,该影响主要是局部地区冲突引起出口国石油产量下降所致。局部地区冲突不会通过国际油价和中国石油对外直接投资影响中国石油进口。石油资源禀赋和"一带一路"倡议能够在一定程度上对冲局部冲突对中国石油进口的负向影响。局部地区冲突对中国石油进口的冲击具有明显的阶段性特征,并且随着中国石油进口依存度的攀升逐渐增强。在当前国际油市深度调整的现实背景下,该研究为深刻认识一系列国际重大突发事件对中国石油进口的影响、保障中国石油进口安全提供了科学借鉴。     

平行进口与最优贸易政策

以往文献关于平行进口问题的最优贸易政策分析,一般是从全球福利最大化的角度加以审视和探讨,这和现实有一定差距。对平行进口问题采用何种贸易政策为最优,更加现实的判断标准应是本国的福利最大化,而不应是全球福利最大化。为此,延伸以往文献的分析,建立一个三国三阶段的博弈模型,按照制造商是采用两部定价还是歧视定价的不同,分别分析一国的最优贸易政策。结论发现,无论制造商采用何种方式定价,若一国的自主品牌较少,应当允许平行进口,和以往文献不同。     

Some Surprising Facts About the Concentration of Trade Across Commodities and Trading Partners

The present paper documents unexplained concentration in trade. Bernard et al. (Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data, 2009, University of Chicago Press) have documented concentration at the level of the firm and in exports. Taking a step forward, we document trade volume concentration at the level of nations and in both exports and imports. Firm level concentration has been relatively easy to explain in terms of models of heterogeneous‐firm models with entry costs in both the domestic and foreign markets. But as we shall see, the concentration at the level of the nation, especially in imports if not exports, turns out to be far more difficult to explain.     

Cross-border production sharing and exchange-rate sensitivity of Mexico's trade balance

Increasing patterns of international trade occur in the form of cross-border production sharing – the dispersion of separate blocks of an integrated production process across different nations. In the case of ‘standard’ or ‘ordinary’ trade, imports are destined for use in the importing country, and exports are largely produced within the country. However, with production sharing, imported parts and components are destined for inclusion in the country's exports. A depreciation of a nation's currency raises its exports. At the same time, imported components become more expensive, which partly offsets the expansionary effect of the depreciation on exports. Using a simple theoretical framework, this paper shows that production networks lower the sensitivity of a country's trade balance to changes in exchange rates. The empirical examination finds Mexico's Maquiladora trade balance to be unresponsive to changes in both, its real effective as well as its real peso-dollar rates, while that for non-Maquiladora category is significantly responsive, in confirmation with the theorized hypothesis.     

PROMOTING EFFORTS FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE IMPACT OF IMPORT PROMOTION OFFICES

Increasing exports from developing countries is widely regarded as an important part of a development and growth strategy. A major problem confronting exporters from developing countries is the many market barriers they typically face when attempting to enter markets in developed countries. Different institutions have been established to alleviate this problem, including export promotion offices (EPOs) in various developing countries and import promotion offices (IPOs) in several developed countries. The present study explores the impact of IPOs on exports from developing to developed countries by examin ing the actual pattern of imports into OECD countries over the period 1988 to 1993. Four specific product groups are selected and a model pertaining to explain the pattern of imports is presented. The results show that, even after controlling for a number of economic and policy variables, the share of imports originating in developing coun tries is indeed positively influenced by the presence of an IPO in the importing country. Thus, the results suggest that the establishment of an IPO may have a positive impact on the share of imports originat ing in developing countries.     

Assessing the sustainability of external imbalances in the European Union

We assess the sustainability of the current account (CA) balance, net international investment position (NIIP) and net external debt (NED) in a sample of 22 EU countries using two complementary approaches. First, we employ time‐series stationarity tests of current account balance‐to‐GDP ratios as well as cointegration tests of exports and imports of goods and services. Second, we assess the level of trade balance that stabilises the NIIP and the NED. We find that there is sustainability of the CA balance in eight countries, NIIP in five countries and NED in 10 countries, whereas there is evidence of a lack of sustainability in five debtor nations and three creditor nations. Both approaches are consistent with each other given the relationship between flows and stocks, the existence of structural breaks, and valuation effects via exchange rate and interest rate changes.     

United States Trade in Consumer Products

The United States has experienced a large trade deficit in consumer products. This paper argues that the deficit is due in part to the institutional and behavioral frameworks in which consumer products are marketed. The existence of an effective mass distribution system, a large market relative to promotion expenditures and the change-orientation of the consumer can influence greatly the ability of nations to expand markets and stimulate sales of consumer products. These factors prevalent in the American economy have attracted imports. In contrast, their absence in the economies of our trading partners has limited our access to foreign markets. Policy implications of this situation and areas for further research are identified and discussed.     

The Choice of RMB Exchange Rate and the Internationalization of RMB under the Financial Storm

The financial storm that has spread to the whole world has already influenced major economies at present. China, which is actively involving itself in the global economy, cannot get rid of its influence. Among the economic departments that are undergoing strong attacks, export industries are the worst influenced. According to the statistics by General Customs Administration, in November 2008,