ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy are analyzed using a Keynesian growth model. Comparative static analysis shows that the long‐run effects of an increase in public spending and a decrease in taxation on economic growth and government budget balance depend on the relative size of marginal propensity to consume and invest and could be positive under certain conditions. Empirical estimates show that consumption and production structure have changed significantly from 1930s to 2007; both positive and negative effects on growth and budget balance of the same fiscal policy are found in different time periods.     

"制造服务",制造还是服务——评《国际收支手册》修订对中国贸易平衡的影响

《国际收支手册》2008年修订本将加工贸易从货物转移到服务项下,谓之日“制造服务”,本文对此作出理论上的诠释。核算口径对中国贸易平衡的影响到底有多大,本文依据翔实资料进行测算。对测算结果的分析,得出影响虽然不小,但不会颠覆货物贸易平衡格局的结论。     

THE UNEQUALIZING EFFECTS OF ICT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

We analyse the effects of information and communication technology (ICT) on levels and growth of per capita GDP in two different ways: (1) by treating ICT as a specific type of physical capital and as a variable that helps to correct for quality existing physical capital measures, and (2) by considering that telephone lines, personal computers and internet hosts are ‘bottleneck‐reducing’ factors that increase the productivity of labour by making easier the diffusion and processing of (non‐rivalrous and almost non‐excludable) knowledge. We compare the relative significance of the two hypotheses in level and growth estimates and find that, when separately taken, both of them improve upon the classical Mankiw et al. (Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 107 (1992), pp. 407–437)/Islam (Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 110 (1995), pp. 1127–1169) framework. These findings show that our approach captures dimensions of time‐varying country‐specific technological progress that previous approaches in the literature did not take into account.     

警惕贸易条件恶化引起顺差下降

2011年第一季度,中国出现了10.2亿美元的货物贸易逆差,虽然量很小,却是2004年第二季度以来的首次,尤其是考虑到2008年的巨额顺差,变化的确显著. 第一季度出口有季节性偏低因素的影响,季节调整后,第一季度的货物贸易仍为小幅顺差.但是,从2009年开始,季调后顺差迅速下降,占GDP的比例更是大幅度下降.     

FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE IMPERFECT LABOR MARKET

Using a simple overlapping generations model with the growth engine of public capital by incorporating the union wage setting, we examine the effects of fiscal policies on unemployment, economic growth and welfare in the imperfect labor market. We demonstrate that the growth‐maximizing tax in the imperfect labor market is larger than that of the perfect labor market. However, as the allocation ratio of public capital increases, the growth‐maximizing tax in the imperfect labor market approaches that of the perfect labor market, thus reducing the unemployment rate. The policy implications of the intergenerational welfare aspects are also mentioned.     

中国经济“高增长率与高失业率并存”原因探析

近几年 ,中国经济在保持较高增长速度的同时 ,也存在较高的失业率 ,这种经济现象是与西方经济学理论相悖的。文章依据中国国情 ,从高经济增长率与高失业率并存的客观现实出发 ,分析造成此种经济现象的原因 ,并提出相关建议、对策 ,以期中国经济在保持较高增长速度的同时 ,提高就业弹性系数 ,把失业率降到最低限度。     

ECONOMIC POLICY IN A GROWTH CONTEXT: A CLASSICAL SYNTHESIS OF KEYNES AND HARROD

This paper clarifies key differences between Harrodian and Keynesian theories and policies, and develops a classical alternative to both. The stability of the Harrodian warranted path is proved, and the Keynesian paradox of thrift is shown to be transient. Distinct Harrodian fiscal policies are derived, and Post‐Keynesian debates about Harrodian dynamics are addressed. Finally, it is argued that business and household savings are fundamentally different, and it is shown that if the business savings rate responds at all to the investment–savings gap, it becomes possible to have both profit‐driven accumulation as in Keynes and normal capacity growth as in Harrod.     

我国地区差异扩大的新经济增长理论分析

近年来,我国东、中西部地区发展差异日趋显著,并有不断拉大的趋势。文章运用罗默和卢卡斯的新经济增长理论,从知识创新和人力资本的角度对近年来我国地区差异扩大的原因进行了分析,并对如何缩小这种差异提出了一些建议。     

中西法律起源的经济分析

资源的稀缺性和人的有限理性是对中西法律起源进行经济分析的前提 ,经济学中的成本理论和马克思主义政治经济学的观点是对中西法律的起源进行比较分析的工具。在此基础上 ,法律被论证为在资源稀缺的前提下基于降低社会成本的作用而产生 ,中西法律起源的不同是由其经济基础、征战成本和社会成本不同决定的。     

WTO绿箱政策与农业经济结构调整

中国加入WTO要实行绿箱政策。应充分利用WTO的农业政策与规则,加大政府对农业的支持力度,从根本上增强中国农业与世界同行的竞争力。中国农业应对入世需要解决的主要问题：一是农业体制创新;二是调整农村产业结构;三是加强农业服务;四是农业生产资料的生产和销售;五是减轻农民负担,扩大农民就业。     

DIRECTED GRAPH THEORY AND THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF INNOVATION

This article applies digraph theory to the theory of technological regimes. The first part of the paper identifies a number of links between the evolutionary approach and a particular version of the neoclassical approach to the economic analysis of technological change. Both these approaches are shown to take the body of presently-available technological knowledge as a quantifiable magnitude allowing firms varying in strategy, structure and core capabilities to explore a range of feasible alternatives within the frontiers imposed by such knowledge. The second part of the paper therefore considers technological knowledge to be a cognitive empirical structure which can be better defined and calculated by using the theorems of digraph theory.     

浅析进口对我国经济增长的促进作用

本文利用1978-2003年我国对外贸易和GDP的相关统计数据,通过分别建立进口/出口与经济增长关系的回归模型,实证了进口与我国经济增长之间显著的正相关关系。此外,本文还对实证结果进行了较充分的理论解释和现实分析,并有针对性地提出了一些建议。     

从需求驱动看中国文化产业成为新经济增长点

在经济全球化的背景下,受宏观经济气候的影响,我国经济在连续5年以超过10%的速度增长之后,从2008年第三季度起,我国经济增长率出现了加速下滑的局面.如图1所示,经济增长率从2008年第二季度的10.2%下滑到第三季度的9%,第四季度继续下滑到6.8%.金融危机对我国经济的影响主要表现在以下三个方面:进出口贸易受到冲击、投资受进出口下滑影响增长放缓、消费形势不容乐观.     

全球化背景下农产品供应链的发展及对策研究

在全球化背景下,构建和发展我国农产品供应链体系迫在眉睫。本文在借鉴国外经验的前提下,分析了我国农产品供应链的结构模式,并提出促进农产品供应链发展的对策。     

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS‐CONSTRAINED GROWTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVE

The paper clarifies some issues raised in the basic model of balance of payments‐constrained growth due to Thirlwall and later extensions by Thirlwall and Hussain and Moreno‐Brid. The model is also adapted to include both interest payments and net transfers. The latter variable has become very important to many developing countries and brings a new dimension to the analysis. Very importantly, net transfers are positively related to foreign income and negatively related to domestic income. Thus, the paper accounts for dynamic feedback effects, between net transfers, domestic and world income.     

GROWTH POLICY IN THE SPIRIT OF STEINDL AND KALECKI

There are large differences between Steindl’s ideas on growth policies and the Brussels/Paris consensus. Steindl called for innovation and education policies, whereas the mainstream today rather favours deregulation and privatization. Steindl stressed the positive demand‐side effects of the public sector and the contribution of lower household savings and anticyclical policies to growth. The economic mainstream praises the efficiency effects of a declining public sector, the importance of high savings for investment and warns of active anticyclical policies being an impediment to budget consolidation. Steindl and the Keynesians regarded the labour market situation as a consequence of economic growth. Today many economists see low growth as a result of labour market rigidities.