Can Someone Please Settle This Dispute? Canadian Softwood Lumber and the Dispute Settlement Mechanisms of the NAFTA and the WTO

The long‐running Canada‐US softwood lumber dispute provides a useful backdrop for comparison of the dispute settlement mechanisms of the Canada‐US Free Trade Agreement, the North American Free Trade Agreement, and the dispute settlement mechanisms of the World Trade Organisation because it is the only dispute to have been litigated in all three venues. By looking at a dispute in which the central arguments of the litigants have remained consistent while the venues for litigation have changed, this article aims to evaluate the utility of these mechanisms for resolving some of the world trading system's most difficult disputes and highlights several weaknesses within each that both hamper their effectiveness and suggest avenues for future change.     

THE CASUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR OF THE UNITED STATES

The impact of US trade barriers and demand factors on import prices of Canadian softwood lumber is examined using time series analysis of quarterly data from 1989–2006. The results suggest that the previous quarter import price of softwood lumber, US producer price, and US housing starts, and the current quarter US producer price of softwood lumber have significant impacts on the import price of Canadian softwood lumber with 0.69, 1.92, 0.10 and ?1.64 as respective elasticities. Among trade barriers examined, a softwood quota raises the import price but a high tariff lowers it.     

DO RISING REAL WAGES INCREASE THE RATE OF LABOR‐SAVING TECHNICAL CHANGE? SOME ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE

The long‐run relationship between real wages and labor productivity is investigated using cointegration and Granger non‐causality tests for the US economy over the period 1869–1999. The series are cointegrated, indicating that there is a link between real wages and labor productivity in the long run. Granger non‐causality tests support unidirectional causation from real wages to labor productivity. This outcome corroborates the conception that increases in real wages drive profit‐seeking capitalists to raise labor productivity as their main weapon in defending their profitability. This result is consistent with a long tradition among economists that perceives technical change as being biased toward labor‐saving.     

中国劳动生产率的“地区—产业收敛悖论”——基于差异分解的实证研究

文献分析和收敛实证检验发现,中国劳动生产率在国家层面上和产业层面上存在相反的结论,可谓之"地区—产业收敛悖论"。运用偏离—份额分析方法将1980—2009年各省份的劳动生产率差异分解成产业结构效应、纯生产率效应和配置效应,并利用统计数据检验每种效应的收敛性。实证结果表明,第一、二产业的纯生产率效应存在绝对收敛,但是产业结构效应和配置效应是发散的。这正是"地区—产业收敛悖论"存在的内在原因,即地区间生产率的收敛并不唯一地由产业的纯生产率决定,还要取决于产业结构效应和配置效应,而这两个效应在中国恰恰是发散的。     

“后报复”阶段的规则研究与多哈DSU改革方案——以US/Canada-Continued Suspension案为例

DSU规定了实施报复的条件和程序,但对报复实施后的监督和终止却疏于规范。US/Canada–Continued Suspension呈现了"后报复"阶段的各种问题。上诉机构报告对终止报复的条件、解决后报复执行异议的适当程序、有权且负有义务启动程序的争端方等的裁决和诠释,对完善WTO裁决执行机制具有正面的体制性意义,但也因突破了DSU案文和忽视进行中的DSU谈判,被指责为超越权限的造法。多哈回合DSU谈判对"后报复"问题形成的两种改革方案均未全然接受上诉机构报告的结论,而是各自采纳了互不相同的逻辑和解决思路。     

Family Firms and Labor Productivity: The Role of Enterprise‐Level Bargaining in the Italian Economy

We investigate the role of Italian firms in labor productivity performance. We find that family‐owned firms have lower labor productivity than their non‐family counterparts. In a second step, we estimate the role of firm‐level bargaining (FLB) to determine whether family‐controlled firms that adopt this type of bargaining may partially close the gap in terms of labor productivity with their non‐family competitors. Our results, obtained through IV estimation to control for endogeneity bias, suggest that enterprises under family governance achieve significant labor productivity gains—greater than those achieved by their non‐family counterparts—when they adopt firm‐level bargaining.     

中国城乡劳动力流动影响因素研究——理论模型与实证分析

结合中国实际情况,对哈里斯-托达罗模型的基本假设进行修定,从农民追求预期净收益现值最大化出发,运用动态宏观经济学的递归方法,推导出均衡条件下中国城乡劳动力流动影响因素的理论模型,并采用动态面板计量方法实证检验各影响因素对城乡劳动力流动的作用方向和程度。研究发现：城乡劳动力流动率的滞后值、城乡实际收入差距、非农产值比和农业比较劳动生产率对城乡劳动力流动有正的影响,但城乡实际收入差距的影响系数值偏小;城镇失业率、城乡消费支出比和农村工业化对城乡劳动力流动有负的影响;制度变迁和全社会固定资产投资率对城乡劳动力流动也有一定程度但不显著的正影响。为了解决农民工就业问题,应加强城乡联动共同发展。     

The Macroeconomic Effects of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement on Canada: A Counterfactual Analysis

We evaluate the macroeconomic effects of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on Canada's economy using a counterfactual analysis. We exploit the dependence of GDP growth (labour productivity and unemployment, respectively) among different economic entities and construct the counterfactuals using data from countries other than Canada. We find that in the adjustment period from 1989:Q1 to 1992:Q1, Canada's economy bore the short‐run adjustment costs of the FTA with a decline of the annual real GDP by 2.56 per cent and a decline of the labour productivity by 0.62 per cent. After the adjustment period, the FTA had a positive and permanent effect of 1.86 per cent on Canada's annual real GDP growth and raised the labour productivity from 1992 to 1994 by 2.39 per cent on average. Moreover, the FTA increased Canada's annual unemployment rate by 1.81 per cent in the period 1989–94.     

中国物流业发展的驱动因素及其动力来源——基于劳动力投入的视角

中国物流业的发展不仅受外部经济发展、地区政策差异等因素的影响,最主要取决于内部因素的驱动。文章基于时间和空间维度,应用LMDI指数分解法和重力模型将物流业劳动力投入分解为劳动规模效应、劳动效率效应和劳动力地区结构效应。研究发现：东部和中部地区物流业发展的主要内在驱动因素为劳动效率的提升,属于集约型发展方式;而西部地区主要依赖于劳动规模扩张,属于粗放型发展方式。且劳动效率提升是中国区域物流业发展重心变化的主要驱动因素;劳动效率差距缩小是东中部地区物流业发展收敛性的主要原因;东西部地区物流业发展处于发散状态主要归因于劳动效率差距的扩大化。此外,通过建立提升物流业劳动效率的Tobit动力因素模型,研究发现：推动东中西部地区物流业劳动效率提升的动力因素具有差异性。表现在技术水平对劳动效率的推动作用从东部向西部逐渐递减,尤以东西部地区具有显著差距,说明我国物流业在产业转移中可能存在“技术转移塌陷”的现象;而东西部地区劳动工资的推动作用低于全国水平,可以推断东西部可能存在劳动工资分配失衡的现象,从而抑制了劳动者积极性,最终未能对劳动效率提升产生较高推动作用。     

二元经济结构转换与发展农村集体经济

刘易斯在吸收了马克思和古典经济学家关于劳动力和经济增长理论的基础上,指出新古典增长模型忽视了部分发展中国家劳动力无限供给这一特征,认为工业化的发展能带动农业的现代化。但是中国目前大量的剩余劳动力的存在,城乡差距的拉大,使人们意识到由于我国特殊的国情和“增长极”的作用,解决农村问题的关键是要依靠自身的发展,发展集体经济,提高农村劳动生产率,促进工农业均衡发展,建设社会主义新农村。     

资本品进口、资本技能互补与中国的相对工资差距

中国是资本品净进口国,资本品进口引致资本积累并通过资本与技能互补效应增加对熟练劳动力的相对需求,是影响熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力之间相对工资差距的一个重要机制。文章实证检验了资本品进口与中国熟练劳动力的互补效应及其对中国相对工资差距的影响。研究结论表明：资本与技能互补效应在中国长期存在,资本品进口促进了中国的资本积累,并通过资本与技能互补效应提高了熟练劳动力的边际产出,增加了对熟练劳动力的相对需求,扩大了相对工资差距。然而,劳动力的相对数量效应和相对效率效应对中国不断扩大的相对工资差距的解释力不强。     

企业异质性、劳动力异质性与技能工资差距

文章提出研究假设,构建理论模型,揭示了企业异质性、劳动力异质性对技能工资差距的影响机理;基于中国工业企业微观数据,对企业异质性、劳动力异质性与技能工资差距的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明：(1)企业异质性对技能工资差距有显著的影响。其中企业绩效越好、创新能力越强、生产率水平越高、外资参与度越高,则技能工资差距越大。出口企业与体制内企业存在明显的技能工资溢价。(2)劳动力异质性对技能工资差距有显著的影响。其中男性占比越高、受教育年限越长、技能型员工占比与技术型员工占比越高,则技能工资差距越大;人力资本异质性进一步扩大了性别技能工资差距。(3)劳动力异质性与企业异质性交互项对技能工资差距有显著的影响。其中技能型员工占比扩大了狭义技能工资差距,技术型员工占比进一步扩大了广义技能工资差距,广义技能工资差距大于狭义技能工资差距。在此基础上提出了具有一定参考价值的政策建议,并对未来的研究方向进行展望。     

The factor content of Chinese trade

This article demonstrates that the growth of China's exports in recent years is consistent with the Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek (HOV) prediction of the factor content of trade based on international differences in factor endowments, after adjusting for substantial differences in factor-specific productivity. A comparison of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development input–output data in the year 2000 shows that China's labor productivity relative to the United States is the lowest in a sample of 33 diverse countries, although China's capital is more productive than US capital. This in turn demonstrates the importance of a factor-specific rather than factor-neutral productivity adjustment common in much of the HOV literature. The use of value-added data to measure factor usage helps to correct for unobserved differences in factor qualities and differences in productivity across sectors, as is demonstrated for China. China's low average labor productivity reflects the structure of the Chinese economy where most employment is still in the inefficient agriculture and service sectors, with only 11% of employment in the more modern export-oriented manufacturing sector. Due to a trade surplus, China exports both labor and capital but Leamer's (The Journal of Political Economy 1980;88: 495–503) test for trade-revealed factor abundance confirms that China is labor abundant even after substantial factor-specific productivity adjustments.     

The North American–European Union Dispute Over Beef Produced Using Growth Hormones: A Major Test for the New International Trade Regime

At the time, the negotiation of the SPS agreement was seen as a major accomplishment of the Uruguay Round. One of the first major tests of both the SPS and the WTO’s new dispute settlement system was the long standing and acrimonious dispute between the EU and the US and Canada over trade in beef produced using hormones. Both the SPS and the disputes system performed as expected but the EU, the loser in the case, has chosen to ignore the WTO Panel’s ruling and accept retaliation. As a result, the credibility of the WTO is threatened and the outcome suggests that new negotiations may be required. The issues in the case are outlined and implications for trade in biological products drawn.     

Globalization and firm level adjustment with imperfect labor markets

In a model with search generated unemployment and heterogeneity on both sides of the labor market, exporting firms are bigger and pay higher wages than other firms. Moreover, there is imperfect persistence in the decision to export and liberalization increases the wage gap between high- and low-skill workers. Openness can increase aggregate productivity in export-oriented markets while generating within-firm productivity losses for the weakest firms. In contrast, openness can lead to within-firm productivity gains for the weakest firms in import-competing industries.     

WTO棉花争议案中交叉报复的研究

鉴于中国与贸易伙伴贸易摩擦的增多,深入研究WTO争端解决机制及案例对加入世贸不久的中国来说,如何更好地利用WTO争端解决机制具有重要意义。对交叉报复和对报复要求仲裁的理解是对WTO争端解决机制进行深入研究的两个重要方面。     

A STOCHASTIC MODEL OF TECHNICAL CHANGE: AN APPLICATION TO THE US ECONOMY (1869–1989)

A stochastic model of technical change is presented that accounts for the profiles of important macroeconomic variables observed in the US economy since the Civil War: labor productivity, the productivity of capital, and the profit rate. No production function exists, and the viewpoint is that of evolutionary economics. Innovation is described as a random, non-biased process, controlled by two parameters. The techniques of production used are selected according to their profitability. Under the assumptions of a rising labor cost and a temporary variation in the profile of innovation, it is possible to reproduce the historical trends of each variable over the three subperiods, 1869-1920, 1920-1960, and 1960-1989. For example, the model explains why the productivity of capital and the profit rate displayed first a downward, then an upward, and again a downward trend. The treatment of a deterministic approximation of the model permits a thoroughly analytical discussion of the various configurations of the variables depending on the values of the parameters.     

如何减缓人民币汇率"内高外低"双重压力

在人民币汇率问题上,目前中国面临两难选择:在国际上,面临升值的压力,而在国内,又面临贬值的压力.这种矛盾对立现象的根本原因在于中国经济发展水平同发达国家经济发展水平高低悬殊、社会劳动生产率高低悬殊、中国国内价格水平过低等.因此,本文指出:提高我国的社会劳动生产率是减缓压力的根本;推进新一轮的价格改革是减缓压力的关键;改善中美贸易结构是减缓压力的重要举措;人民币国际化是减缓压力的必由之路.     

The Political Economy of Strategic Trade Policy and the Brazil–Canada Export Subsidies Saga

In this paper we study the on‐going trade dispute between Canada and Brazil on export subsidies in the aircraft industry and the reasons for its escalation. This is a peculiar case of strategic trade policy insofar as the good, i.e. regional jets, is heavily dependent on sub‐systems that are imported in the two countries. The hypothesis that the dispute solely derives from the search for rents and externalities is therefore incomplete. Without downplaying the role of interest politics, we argue that in both countries ideas about the goals of trade policy have an important place in explaining why this dispute drags on. For Canada, the belief in a rules‐based trading regime has led it to strongly oppose violations, while insecurity about its competitiveness has led to a variety of government schemes to support firms in advanced sectors like aerospace. For Brazil, its place as a leader of the developing world acted as a rallying point for government and firms alike. The research also argues that the WTO process has actually made a resolution of the dispute more difficult by making it too costly for firms and countries to comply with the costs of losing.     

我国制造业劳动生产率增长源泉研究——基于规模递增效应与劳动力结构转变的分析

以我国制造业1980-2006年相关数据为基本资料,运用卡尔多·凡登定律(CaldorVerdoorn Law)来检验我国制造业是否存在劳动生产率的规模递增效应,并根据生产率增长的需求驱动路径来分析制造业劳动力结构变动对劳动生产率增长的影响,在此基础上采用偏离一份额分析法(Shift-Share Analvze)方法来进一步分解劳动力结构变动对劳动生产率增长的贡献.研究结果表明,我国制造业至少在1995-2006年间存在生产率增长的规模递增效应,且在这阶段间存在着地区间剩余劳动力的转移;偏离一份额分析法分解则表明地区间劳动力的流动对我国制造业劳动生产率增长的贡献份额较低,劳动生产率增长的重要来源是各地区行业本身劳动生产率的内部提升.