China and Its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilising Influence?1

China is criticised for keeping its dollar exchange rate fairly stable when it has a large trade (saving) surplus. This criticism is misplaced in two ways. First, no predictable link exists between the exchange rate and the trade balance of an international creditor economy. Second, since 1995, the stable yuan/dollar rate has anchored China’s price level and facilitated counter cyclical fiscal policies that have smoothed its high real GDP growth at a remarkable 9 to 11 per cent per year. With its now greater GDP, China displaces Japan as the largest economy in East Asia – but with a much stronger stabilising influence on East Asian neighbours from its higher economic growth and more stable dollar exchange rate. Now, an ever larger China is an essential stabiliser for the world economy – as exemplified by its prompt and effective fiscal response to the global credit crunch of 2008–09. However, cumulating financial distortions – in China and the United States – threaten to undermine China’s growth and its stabilising influence on the rest of the world.     

A U.S. Manufacturing Strategy for the 21st Century: What Policies Yield National Sector Competitiveness?

The national debate over the fate of U.S. manufacturing is back, with some asking the question: Is manufacturing dead? However, the U.S. manufacturing sector has been making a surprising comeback and added jobs in 2010 and 2011 following 12 straight years of declines. Utilizing economic data, coupled with qualitative manufacturing industry information, offers a unique opportunity for the authors to present a pragmatic and strategic national manufacturing strategy based on the realities of a continually evolving R&D/high-technology-based U.S. manufacturing sector.     

EXPLAINING ASYMMETRY IN THE U.S. MERCHANDISE AND SERVICE ACCOUNT BALANCE: Does the Service Sector Hold the Key to the U.S. Current Account Woes?

The U.S. economy has experienced two noteworthy structural changes in recent years. Externally, there has been a growing deficit in the merchandise account along with a simultaneously rising service account surplus. And domestically, the GDP share of the service sectors has been growing at a faster rate relative to the goods sectors. The objective of this article is to test the proposition that much of the asymmetry in the relative performance of the merchandise and the service accounts can be explained (1) in terms of income and price elasticity differentials and (2) in terms of relative growth of the service sectors. Results from estimated import and export demand functions for merchandise and service trades and from sectoral analysis of the U.S. economy seem to support the above proposition. The main policy implications are that: (1) domestically, the United States should facilitate current sectoral transformation by eliminating market distortions and rigidities and (2) externally, it should expand on the initiatives taken during the Uruguay Round and drive the WTO toward a full liberalization of trade in services.     

U.S. intelligence system: model for corporate chiefs?

A fully dedicated intelligence support function for senior management is no longer a luxury but a necessity. Companies can enhance their intelligence capabilities by using the government model as a rough blueprint to structure such a program.     

Social commerce: Is interpersonal trust formation similar between U.S.A. and Spain?

In social commerce, interpersonal trust when individuals communicate is key among the parties. The main objective of this study is to investigate how the consequent variables, “interpersonal trust” and “users’ intention”, are impacted by the antecedents of trust-building and cultural dimensions when people are engaged in social commerce. The research model is substantiated using data collected in the U.S.A. and Spain. While all the trust-building antecedents have significant positive impact upon trust, there are cultural differences between the countries. The findings can be of interest to global marketing managers and information officers.     

Which State Policies Lead to U.S. Firm Exits? Analysis with the Economic Freedom Index

This research investigates the relationship between public policy and firm deaths in the U.S. states. Policies that promote firm births may increase or decrease firm deaths. We use components of the Economic Freedom of North America index as a metric to evaluate the relationship between increased government size and firm deaths for the 50 states during 1989–2004. Elements of economic freedom are significantly related to firm deaths but in conflicting directions. We find that in the relevant range, some increases in state policy lead to firm death more than others. The paper also discusses our results and the implications for both future academic research and public policy.     

Is the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate Really Responsible for East Asia's Export and Business Cycles? A Commentary on McKinnon and Schnabl (2003)

In a paper published in The World Economy, Ronald McKinnon and Gunther Schnabl claim that fluctuations in the nominal yen/dollar exchange rate are the principal causal factor behind the export and business cycles in East Asian countries ( McKinnon and Schnabl, 2003 ). Their econometric work, however, suffers from at least two important difficulties. First, while McKinnon and Schnabl preclude industry shocks as an explanation for the East Asian countries’ macroeconomic fluctuations, cyclical fluctuations in the global electronics industry have a significant impact on their short‐run export and output dynamics. Second, although McKinnon and Schnabl assume that the relative industrial competitiveness of Japan and other East Asian countries moves in tandem with fluctuations in the nominal yen/dollar exchange rate, the empirical validity of this assumption is not indisputable. Once these two issues are taken into account properly, it becomes very difficult to make a convincing case for the yen/dollar exchange rate being the main driver of East Asia's macroeconomic instability. A brief critique will also be made of another paper that has appeared recently in The World Economy ( Doraisami, 2004 ), which models Malaysia's pre‐crisis export dynamics using the nominal yen/dollar exchange rate as a proxy for the country's export competitiveness.     

What is the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy,and how might policy affect it?

The answer to the question “What will future potential growth be?” is as important as it is unknowable. This paper attempts to predict future U.S. potential output growth by combining what is unknown (future productivity growth, the performance of the labor market) with what is known (the evolution of the age structure of the population). It does so in two ways. First, this paper uses the historical experience of potential labor productivity growth, labor force participation, and weekly hours to simulate a range of outcomes for future potential growth—finding a 90% confidence interval that ranges from 0.7% annual growth to 3.0% annual growth, centered by construction around the Congressional Budget Office projection of 1.8% annual growth. Second, the paper examines a range of specific economic policies that the Trump Administration might pursue in terms of their impact on economic growth both in the short run and over the next decade—finding that an outer bound of these policies could be plus or minus 0.5 percentage point on the annual growth rate, but that these policies would most likely subtract a small amount from growth.     

Pray local and act global? Christian religiosity in the U.S. and human rights

This study examines the influence of Christian religion on corporate decisions related to human rights in the United States. Specifically, it examines the empirical association between a company's human rights practices and the Christian religiosity in its local community, as well as individual CEO religiosity in the United States, both of which have not been tested in prior studies. Employing a large sample from the United States, we find a congruent association between the “human rights friendly” practices of a company and the Christian religiosity of the local community. This novel finding is robust to a diverse set of tests. In addition, we find that the association between Christian religiosity in the United States and human rights is more significant in reducing human rights concerns, than it improves human rights strengths. This study interprets these results as upholding the religious morality hypothesis, namely, that companies located in areas with higher religiosity are likely to engage in more human rights‐friendly practices, and the United States. Christians consider religion as an influencing factor that encourages managers to embrace human rights. Furthermore, this study finds that individual religious managers tend toward more human rights‐friendly practices, supporting our religious manager hypothesis.     

Factor Substitution in U.S. Manufacturing: Does Plant Size Matter?

We use micro data for 10,412 U.S. manufacturing plants to estimate the degrees of factor substitution by industry and by plant size. We find that (1) capital, labor, energy and materials are substitutes in production, and (2) the degrees of substitution among inputs are quite similar across plant sizes in a majority of industries. Two important implications of these findings are that (1) small plants are typically as flexible as large plants in factor substitution; consequently, economic policies such energy conservation policies that result in rising energy prices would not cause negative effects on either large or small U.S. manufacturing plants; and (2) since energy and capital are found to be substitutes, the 1973 energy crisis is unlikely to be a significant factor contributing to the post 1973 productivity slowdown.     

Two Worlds of Venture Capital: What Happened to U.S. and Dutch Early Stage Investment?

European attempts at imitation of U.S. venture capital have been less successful in stimulating high tech start-ups. Our analysis of the differences between Dutch and U.S. developments points at institutional and organizational differences as explanatory factors. Disappointing longer term performances of Dutch IPOs have caused the closure of the Dutch Parallelmarket. Indeterminate length of life of Dutch vc funds contributed to a loss of trust in early stage IPOs. The U.S. – in contrast – benefitted from contractually fixed length of life of venture capital funds. The U.S. share of early stage investment displayed a wave-like pattern, which is positively related to the number of IPOs and of vc firms. Interconnectedness and follow-on funds depress early stage investment.     

Movies and the Mystery of the Missing Trade: Is Hollywood Good for U.S. Exporters?

Research has shown that consumers have a preference for goods based on the origin of production. This is important because it suggests that, in some cases, even lowering trade barriers may not significantly increase trade flows. In particular, flows may be lower than are predicted by trade theories such as Heckscher-Ohlin. Despite evidence that home consumption bias exists in many countries, it is only recently that research has begun to examine the sources of this bias.

This article fills a gap in the literature by testing a model that addresses the source of this consumption bias. The paper's model incorporates consumers' exposure to foreign products and culture through media imports and tourist visits as factors affecting consumers' preferences for foreign products. Using panel data from 19 countries, the article's results support the hypothesis that lagged exports of U.S. movies have a positive impact on other U.S. exports. Some evidence is also found of a positive effect of tourist visits on U.S. exports.

Since U.S. media exports may generate demand for other U.S. goods and services, opening up foreign media markets should receive a higher priority in U.S. trade negotiations. Another interesting implication of the paper is that overall U.S. export losses resulting from media piracy may be lower than previously calculated, as the consumption of pirated media products may increase demand for other U.S. exports.     

Elderly Latinos in the U.S.: What Do They Know and Think About HIV/AIDS?

ABSTRACT

Previous research on efforts to change health related behaviors indicates that such change may be affected by an individual's knowledge and attitudes, sense of self-efficacy and of susceptibility, and the norms of his or her reference group. This paper presents results from analysis of responses to the National Health Interview Survey's questions about AIDS knowledge, attitudes, susceptibility and behavior, comparing older Latinos both to older non-Latino Americans and to younger Latinos. Data from the NHIS 1994 survey is analyzed; questions on AIDS knowledge and attitudes are investigated and the effects of age and ethnicity are compared.

The results demonstrate significant differences by ethnicity and age. While substantial majorities of all groups know the basic information about HIV transmission, of the four, older Latinos have the highest proportion of people with some inaccurate information.     

Adequacy versus equivalency: Financial data protection and the U.S.–EU divide

In 1995, the European Union passed Directive 95/46/EC, which set the legal framework for European Union citizens to own the rights to their personal data. However, American law bestows ownership to the holder of the data, not the individual, and officials feared the European Union initiative might disrupt data sharing among United States and European Union affiliates. Thus, they negotiated the 2000 Safe Harbor Agreement to allow companies to voluntarily submit to yearly certifications that fulfilled European Union demands, but kept U.S. businesses in control of their data; nevertheless, the Agreement does not include financial and banking services. Instead, the United States argued that the privacy protections within the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act adequately fulfilled European Union guidelines. The European Union disagreed and financial data sharing has operated under a moratorium for the past decade. However, the 2008 financial crisis has governments and clients clamouring for more data transparency to determine risk in the financial system. These global efforts, the European Union's recent push to strengthen the Directive, and the Dodd-Frank Act have pushed data sharing to the policy forefront. This article asserts that transatlantic data sharing will ultimately have to accommodate the privacy cultures in both the United States and the European Union, but firms must be prepared to cope with demands on their data by establishing government relations offices, standardizing information systems, enhancing education for compliance officers, and improving business school curricula.     

The U.S. immigration debate: what’s all the shouting for?

Potential GDP growth has slowed by 1.3% a year. The main culprit is labor force decline. It follows logically that a more welcoming immigration policy would be responsive to our demographic challenges and thereby complementary to macroeconomic growth. Ironically, anger at immigration has grown in inverse proportion to actual immigration flows. There is little evidence that immigrants have negative impacts on the wages of native-born workers, and increased immigration would likely have a net positive fiscal impact. Based on these economic considerations, the U.S. immigration debate seems driven by much more heat than light.     

Initiating U.S. Free Trade Agreements: How Do Potential Partners Stack Up?

This paper addresses the possible endogeneity of income in the gravity model by providing instrumental variables for income. Using these instruments (physical capital, human capital, and labor accumulation rates) in regression equations of the gravity model, it is shown that the effect of income on bilateral trade is highly significant and, in some cases, is not appreciably different from ordinary least squares estimates. The impact on trade of other gravity variables, including dummy variables for membership in various trading blocs, is also examined.     

Do Firms Spend More on Suppliers That Have Environmental Expertise? An Empirical Study of U.S. Manufacturers’ Procurement Spend

Stakeholders expect focal firms to improve their environmental performance. While firms may be able to accumulate the environmental expertise needed to achieve this goal internally, doing so may require significant time and resource commitments. Alternatively, buyer firms can leverage their suppliers’ existing environmental expertise and gain access to such expertise when they purchase products and services from these suppliers. The purpose of this study was to develop and test theory regarding under what conditions suppliers’ environmental expertise influences a buying firms’ procurement spend with these suppliers. We ground our study in transaction cost economics and agency theories and empirically test our hypotheses using a unique buyer–supplier dyadic data set. We find that buyer firms are willing to increase their overall business spend with suppliers that have strong environmental expertise, particularly when the buyer firms are more profitable and have higher levels of absorptive capacity. However, we find the opposite effect when the buyer firm’s executive compensation is linked to the firm’s environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance. Likewise, we also find that the buyer firm’s environmental concern ratings negatively moderate the relationship between the supplier’s environmental expertise and the buyer’s procurement spend with the supplier.