论东亚地区社会信任与经济增长的正相关效应

越来越多的研究表明社会信任是解释经济增长的一个重要变量。不过一般认为华人社会是一个低信任度的社会。但WSV的调查数据证明不仅华人社会，而且整个东亚地区中那些在近40年经历了快速增长的经济体中都有非常高的信任度，这种信任也是这一地区经济增长的源泉。     

信任、信任的起源与信任的变迁

本文通过对世界76个国家和地区信任度的比较得出结论,中国的社会信任度并不算低,处于同一文化圈的日本、韩国等国家在世界范围内来看也处于较高水平。本文认为,中国的信任问题不是初始存量过少的问题,而是社会转型期信任存量过快下降的问题。笔者主张,信任的起源和信任变迁的原因并不相同。就东亚及中国的情况而言,信任的起源与以儒家为代表的传统文化和价值观具有密切关系。对信任下降更为概括性的解释是不确定性：当社会的不确定性增加时,社会信任就会下降。中国当前信任度的下降主要是由于社会快速的转型而导致不确定性增加,并进而造成了信任的下降。最后,笔者对如何从宏观层次抑制信任快速下降提出了若干建议。     

Can trust effects on development be generalized? A response by quantile

While the beneficial effects of social trust on economic performance have been largely recognized, we analyze whether these effects can be generalized for economies at different stages of economic development. Contrary to previous studies on this issue based on average effects (mostly considering ordinary least squares estimations), we follow a quantile regression approach that enables us to capture heterogeneous effects of trust for different development levels. By considering data for 80 countries, and using trust indicators from five different waves of the World Values Survey (WVS), our results by quantile indicate that trust is not relevant for the poorest economies, showing the existence of a social poverty trap. In addition, results suggest that the impact of trust on income decreases as an economy becomes richer. This would suggest not only that trust benefits cannot be generalized for all countries, as some previous studies have proposed, but also that the extent of its implications are heavily dependent on the level of development.     

Individual values and household finances

We create individual cultural values measures for households and show that this is an important determinant of their financial behaviour. To date, personal cultural values have only been indirectly measured through religion and trust. But these are, at best, an approximation of true cultural values. Applying a holistic framework from the World Values Survey (WVS), we create individual measures of cultural values, and show that the self-expression values of this framework are positively associated with households’ financial decisions. Examining the individual cultural values that make up the WVS model, we further show that happiness, trust, and playing an active role in society, are individually important determinants of household financial decision-making. Our study shows that cultural values can be brought from a generalized national level to the individual level in order to improve our understanding of household financial decision-making.     

The power of the family

We study the importance of family ties on economic behavior. We define our measure of family ties using individual responses from the World Value Survey (WVS) regarding the role of the family and the love and respect that children are expected to have for their parents in 81 countries. We show that with strong family ties home production is higher and families larger, labor force participation of women and youngsters, and geographical mobility lower. To assess causality, we look at the behavior of second generation immigrants. Our results overall indicate a significant influence of the strength of family ties on economic outcomes.     

Efficiency and Equality in the Labour Market

I review theoretical arguments suggesting that certain labourmarket institutions can be justified for economic efficiencyreasons. In models with intrinsic market failures, "rigidities"like employment protection legislation and institutional wagecompression may push the economy closer to the efficient frontier.I discuss recent empirical evidence on income inequality, povertyand income mobility in OECD countries, and I conclude that thewelfare states of Northern Europe score relatively well on allcounts. Finally, I discuss labour market reforms that may improveefficiency without violating European voters' preference forequality.(JEL H30, J30, J50)     

An empirical study of income growth and manufacturing industry pollution in New England, 1980-1990

This paper is an empirical examination of how a community's income growth is affected by polluting manufacturing activity. The hypothesis I test is that this activity has two conflicting effects: first, industrial investment encourages economic growth through the creation of employment and other positive economic spillover effects and, second, the associated pollution causes out-migration of residents. I hypothesize that a community that is initially relatively wealthy will experience relatively more out-migration of its higher income residents, who are assumed to have a lower tolerance for pollution. Thus, such communities will grow less in response to such investment compared to its poorer neighbors. Therefore, in my econometric model the marginal effect of pollution on income growth is allowed to vary with initial incomes. I use a unique data set that incorporates Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) and census tract-level data for New England for the years 1980 and 1990. The estimated effect of pollution on growth is negative, on average, and is more negative in initial incomes. In an effort to measure the out-migration effects of pollution, I use a separate measure of toxic pollution. I find that, holding constant total pollution, ‘toxic’ pollution has a more negative effect on growth for wealthier communities. These results are consistent with the above hypotheses.     

Cooperation,Trust and Economic Development: An Experimental Study in China

Many previous empirical studies have suggested that cooperation and trust affect economic growth. However, the precise relationship between trust and cooperation (i.e. whether trust leads to cooperation or cooperation leads to trust) remains unclear and it is not known how the level of economic development affects the level of cooperation and trust. Using a combination of public goods, gambling game and trust game experiments, we investigate the links among cooperation, trust and economic development in four regions of China. Our results suggest that, first, there is a U‐shaped or V‐shaped relationship between cooperation and economic development. Second, on the one hand, cooperation leads to trust, and on the other hand, more cooperative behaviour may be created by rewarding trusting behaviour. Third, men are more cooperative and trusting than women. Furthermore, we find that the widely used ‘GSS trust’ question from the General Social Survey (GSS) does not predict either cooperation or trust, whereas the questions ‘GSS fair’ and ‘GSS help’ have weak predictive power for trusting behaviour but not for cooperative behaviour.     

All About the Giants: Probing the Influences on World Growth and Income Inequality at the End of the 20th Century

This paper presents estimates of world output growth from 1970to 2000, the distribution of income among countries and personsfor the years 1980, 1990 and 2000, and world income povertyrates for the same years. It also presents the results of aseries of simulation exercises that attempt to isolate the effectof particular country and regional experiences on world outputgrowth and changes in global income inequality and poverty. The authors find that rapid growth in China (despite a downwardadjustment of official growth estimates) had a powerful impacton the growth of world output in both the 1980s and 1990s, butthat negative economic growth in Eastern Europe more than offsetthat effect in the 1990s. With respect to the distribution ofworld income between countries, the impressive growth performancesof the worlds most populous countries, China and India, ensureddecreasing levels of inequality during both the 1980s and 1990s.When the distribution of world income between persons is measured,the equalizing effect of China's rapid growth remains dominantthrough both the 1980s and 1990s, despite the contradictoryimpact of increasing domestic inequality. Only India's influenceremained substantial by comparison. Other identifiable eventsof the period, such as the economic contraction in Eastern Europeand continued economic decline in Africa, had little statisticalimpact. However, when the combined influence of China and India'sabove-average growth rates is removed, or their size effectdampened, the improving global distribution of (inter-countryand inter-personal) income suggested by all statistical measuresbecomes one of sharply worsening inequality. The impact of thesetwo countries is similarly critical with respect to global povertyreduction. (JEL F0, I3, O4)     

转型期中国县级政府的客观治理绩效与政治信任——从“经济增长合法性”到“公共产品合法性”

善治是中国政府的执政要务,政治信任反映着公民对政府治理的认可和支持。文章利用2008年中国公民意识调查及政府统计数据,实证分析了政府治理绩效的主观和客观维度对政治信任的影响。研究发现,公民对政府在经济增长、民生福利、纯公共产品领域治理绩效的回顾性和前瞻性积极评价都正相关于政治信任;纯公共产品提供的主观评价对政治信任的影响大于经济增长和民生福利。县级政府的客观治理绩效对政治信任有重要影响,在高人均福利支出、低基尼系数和低失业率的县级单位,政治信任更高,而人均GDP反而微弱地负作用于政治信任。因此,尽管经济增长仍然是政治信任的重要来源,但民生福利和纯公共产品正赶上并超越经济增长,成为公民提供政治信任的新源泉。     

DOES BIG GOVERNMENT HURT GROWTH LESS IN HIGH‐TRUST COUNTRIES?

Social trust is linked to both public sector size and to economic growth, thereby helping to explain how some countries combine high taxes with high levels of economic growth. This paper examines if social trust insulates countries against the negative effects of public sector size on growth, documented in several studies. We note that the effect is theoretically ambiguous. In panel data from 66 countries across 40 years, we find no robust evidence of insulation effects: when excluding countries with uncertain trust scores, our results suggest that big government hurts growth also in high‐trust countries, and that the mechanism is by lowering private investments. (JEL H10, O11, P16, Z10)     

Growth, Inequality, and Well-Being: Intertemporal and Global Comparisons

We use several well-being measures that combine average incomewith a measure of inequality to undertake intertemporal andglobal comparisons of wellbeing. The conclusions emerging fromthe intertemporal analysis are that the impact of these measureson temporal trends in well-being is relatively small on average,but changing across the decades. In particular, it suggeststhat changes in well-being were understated in the 1960s and1970s and overstated in the 1980s and 1990s. Our global analysiscovering ca. 81 per cent of the world's population demonstratesthat global well-being is at least 50 per cent smaller thanworld per capita income if the unequal income distribution isalso factored in. Conversely, growth in world well-being hasbeen larger than world income growth between 1970–1998.Since the inclusion of inequality has an important impact onwell-being comparisons, it is of great importance to generatemore consistent and intertemporally as well as internationallycomparable data on inequality. (JEL I31, D63)     

Gender and the social costs of claiming value: An experimental approach

This paper employs economic experiments to explore the social costs of claiming value in distributive negotiations. I use a reverse dictator game, a “Taking” game, to measure value claiming behavior and an Investment game to measure the social costs of claiming value in terms of trust offered by third parties to Takers. I observe social costs to claiming value and find that male Trustors impose higher social costs than female Trustors. Women reduce how much value they claim in the presence of social costs, but men do not. Takers anticipate this response and claim less when observed by a man.     

信任及其解释:来自中国的跨省调查分析

“信任”被普遍认为是除物质资本和人力资本之外决定一个国家经济增长和社会进步的主要社会资本。华人社会在许多跨文化研究中被认为是低信任度的社会 ,而在国内 ,许多学者已用“信任危机”概括人与人关系的现状。本文试图通过中国跨省的信任调查数据 ,揭示信任对一个地区的经济绩效 ,例如企业规模、企业发展速度、引进外资等的影响 ,进一步分析影响信任的因素。我们的发现表明 ,一个地区能否被人们所信任与地域文化并不紧密相关 ,更重要的是跟人们之间的交易被重复的可能性、交易的发达程度、教育水平等因素有关。这些证据支持了经济学理论中关于重复博弈导致信任的基本假说。     

Entrepreneurship,trust and corruption

I propose a theoretical model where trust towards strangers is a channel through which institutions determine economic outcomes, in particular, entrepreneurship and corruption. More importantly, I show that the role of trust has been overlooked since high levels of trust do not always enhance desirable economic outcomes. Trust helps individuals to participate in economic exchanges aligned with social welfare, but it also facilitates individuals to cooperate for the achievement of corrupt deals. Under this more general view of trust, the model generates a non-trivial new prediction at the individual level. Specifically, the individual-level relationship between honesty and trust changes depending on the institutional quality of a country. Dishonest individuals are the more trusting individuals in countries with poor institutions, and the less trusting in countries with good institutions. Using individual-level data of 80 countries from the World Value Survey and the European Values Study, I present empirical evidence in support of this prediction.     

Global inequality and international trade

The paper analyses the effect of widespread trade liberalisationon global income inequality. The analysis of the trend in globalinequality during 1981–97, presented in the first partof the paper, shows that the apparent growth of income inequalityamong countries conceals a process of convergence. Some developingcountries achieved significantly faster economic growth thanthe advanced industrialised countries and, though small in number,they actually account for a majority of the population of thedeveloping world. Thus international inequality (i.e., the inequalityof distribution of per capita incomes among the world's population)in fact declined even though the inter-country income inequalityincreased. The analysis in the second part of the paper shows(i) that while improved trade performance did have a stimulatingeffect on growth performance of countries, trade liberalisationhad extremely varied effects on trade performance across countries,and (ii) that the distribution of benefits and costs of tradeliberalisation across countries has been such as to reduce internationalinequality without affecting inter-country inequality.     

Public Policy for Growth and Poverty Reduction

In this paper, I would like to outline an approach to publicpolicy that focused on fighting poverty and is based on an understandingof growth and development. Such a public policy requires answeringtwo key questions. First, what are key determinants of a developmentthat benefits poor people – or what has been labelled"pro-poor growth"? And second, we need to answer the policyquestion: how can public action influence the key determinantswe identify? In putting the questions this way, we are settingourselves the task of building a dynamic public economics –a public economics of development. Given that development isthe objective, this task will require a better understandingof how to measure it. And we must also achieve a better graspof changes of behaviour in the process of development, sincechanging perspectives and behaviour are usually an integralpart of the development story. In laying our task of advancinga dynamic public economics, however, let me emphasise that shouldbe building – on – not overturning – pasttheory. In much of the work I will describe, the empirics seemto be ahead of theory. Thus one of my purposes is to highlightsome elements of an agenda for theoretical research. (JEL E6)     

Perceived trustworthiness and inter-firm governance: empirical evidence from the UK printing industry

The paper describes six representative theoretical positionsregarding the impact of trustworthiness on the organisationof inter-firm relations. The positions are then assessed onthe basis of a survey of 184 buyer–supplier relationshipsin the UK printing industry. The widely accepted transactioncost argument for trust as a parameter reducing hierarchy isdismissed. Instead, the so-called triadic forces argument basedon Bradach, J. L. and Eccles, R. G. (1989. Price, authorityand trust: from ideal types to plural forms, Annual Review ofSociology, vol. 15, 96–118) receives the strongest support.Market, hierarchy and trust represent alternative mechanismsthat can be combined in a variety of ways. This pluralisticmodel is enriched further by the acknowledgement of variableroles for contracts and a sceptic stance regarding rationalityin practice.     

Does trust promote growth?

We examine the effect of generalized trust on long-term economic growth. Unlike in previous studies, we use Bayesian model averaging to deal rigorously with model uncertainty and attendant omitted variable bias. In addition, we address endogeneity and assess whether the effect of trust on growth is causal. Examining more than forty regressors for nearly fifty countries, we show that trust exerts a positive effect on long-term growth and, based on the posterior inclusion probabilities, suggest that trust is an important driver of long-term growth. Our results also show that trust is key for growth in countries with a weak rule of law.     

文化、社会资本与亚洲经济增长:对中华文化圈的考察

越来越多的研究表明社会资本是解释经济增长的一个重要变量。但一般认为华人社会是一个低信任度——也就是社会资本匮乏的社会,但是文章用实际数据说明,不仅华人社会有着很高的信任度,受与中华文化密切联系的国家也都有非常高的信任度。这种信任在中华文化圈内有着相当高的稳定性,不受教育水平和收入水平的影响。