Prospects for the Australian Economy in 1984*

Recent economic developments provide the backdrop against which Australia's economic prospects in 1984 are examined. Factors which will contribute to a mild recovery are identified. It is argued that the fiscal stimulus of the 1983 budget could, via the discretionary component, have been even larger without causing a serious monetary or balance of payments problem. This view partly rests on the maintenance of the prices and incomes Accord which, it is suggested, will need to be reinforced by changes to taxation scales in 1984. However, even if employment grows strongly, unemployment will remain at high levels in 1984.     

亚洲经济展望——莱斯特·瑟罗教授谈访录

金融风暴到如今，亚洲经济未来展望如何?去年，台湾《天下》杂志采访了曾担任美国总统经济顾问、当今世界最具影响力的经济学家之一——美国麻省理工学院的瑟罗教授，请他对全球经济进行的详尽观察作……     

Australia and the Pacific Economy*

The industrialization and growth of East Asian countries has shifted the centre of world trade and economic activity towards the Pacific. There has already been a huge redirection of Australia's trade and external economic interests towards the region, based importantly on the emergence of Japan as a major economic power. Australia's future economic prospects will be significantly determined by how it manages its trade policy interests in the context of continuing East Asian industrialization. The most promising Australian trade policy approach is one which allies Australia's trading interests to those of East Asian countries in seeking to maintain an open non-discriminatory trade regime, supportive of the transformation of trade specialization necessary to the industrialization of resource-deficient countries, and which marries that objective to the liberalization of her own and Pacific country markets.     

Political Economy*

The term 'political economy' has a long and curious history, from its 17th-century meaning of statecraft to the classical economists' use of it for what later came to be called economics and its recent appropriation by neo-Marxists for social theory which, in contrast to 'orthodox' economics, goes into history, politics and sociology, focuses on power relationships and combines positive analysis with advocacy. This article points out that there are now at least two schools of political economy in this tatter sense, the neo-Marxist and the 'Chicago' school. The concluding section distinguishes sensible and not so sensible uses of the term.     

2005年中国农业和农村经济展望

20 0 4年中国农业和农村经济呈现出多年少有的好的发展走势 ,2 0 0 5年中国农业和农村经济既面临机遇又面临挑战 ,总的看将继续保持发展的势头 ,但维持 2 0 0 4年的增长速度难度很大 ,需要采取相应的措施。     

海洋经济高质量发展的研究进展及展望

海洋经济高质量发展研究符合海洋强国等国家重大战略的现实需要.①长期以来海洋经济研究的外文文献的主要议题为可持续发展,关于指标体系、评价方法的研究较少,而对于发展质量的研究则更为欠缺,从2018年开始我国海洋经济的研究着眼于高质量发展.②国内对指标体系和评价更侧重于方法,主要为海洋经济、海洋产业可持续发展,评价方法多侧重...     

当前美国经济前景与中国出口问题

第二交民办大战后的5次世界性经济危机，世界生产大都下降，而世界贸易量不降反增，主要原因是危机较轻，科技革命与GATT/WTO的合力作用，一些重要周期指标显示美国经济高增长正逐渐消逝，但出现“V型”走势，而不会出现严重的经济衰退，90年代美国进口增幅明显高于出口，近几年美国进口对经济周期的变动劝相当敏感，中国对美国市场具有较高的依存性，美国经济增长放慢，不仅影响中国对美国出口，还影响到中国对东南亚等国家与地区的出口，使今年中国的出口形势变得有些严峻复杂，中国应更加重视以加工贸易带动出口，适度增加从美国的进口，并将对欧出口作为工作重点之一。     

Information Technology and the World Economy*

This paper addresses the impact of investment in information technology (IT) on the recent resurgence of world economic growth. We describe the growth of the world economy, seven regions and 14 major economies during the period 1989–2003. We allocate the growth of world output between input growth and productivity and find, surprisingly, that input growth greatly predominates! The contributions of IT investment have increased in all regions, but especially in industrialized economies and Developing Asia. Differences in per capita output are explained by differences in per capita input, rather than by variations in productivity.     

英国中小企业另类融资的背景、态势及展望

中小企业融资难问题是世界上大多国家和地区普遍面临的一个突出性问题。近年来,英国众筹、个人对个人借贷以及发票交易等多种另类融资市场中介发展迅猛,特别是2013年增幅显著。英国另类融资的催生和发展,其主要经济和社会因素为:中老年人创业现象趋热,金融改革带来的负面冲击,经济社会因素给创业家融资所带来的障碍,以及社会媒体和以网络为基础的金融交易的广泛应用。英国政府,一方面采取有效措施对中小企业另类融资进行监管,另一方面还为其提供资助。英国另类融资为其众多初创企业和中小企业在不同发展阶段提供了强有力的金融支持,在很大程度上助推了中小企业的稳步发展。英国这些企业资源与金融资源对接的新思路、新趋势和新模式,值得关注、分析和研究。     

Brookings on the Australian Economy*

This paper offers a review of two central issues of macroeconomic management, nominal wage determination and the relative roles for fiscal expansion and real wage restraint, discussed in the Brookings study of the Australian economy. Consideration is given to the book, The Australian Economy: A View from the North, edited by Richard E. Caves and Lawrence B. Krause, George Allen & Unwin, Sydney 1984, and to the January 1984 conference discussion.     

Interest Rate Flexibility and the Open Economy*

The objective of the paper is to analyze the importance of institutional changes in the financial system for the efficacy of monetary policy and in particular for the connection between the balance of payments (capital account) and monetary policy. Particular institutional developments studied include the emergence of certificates of deposit and the removal of interest rate ceilings in 1973. The result established, using a general equilibrium model, is that the degree to which transactions in the capital account of the balance of payments offset a domestic monetary expansion is greater in a regime of market-determined interest rates than in a regime of administered rates.     

China's Recent Economic Performance and Future Prospects*

Our forecast of China's economic future is based primarily on the supply side growth accounting model. The life cycle model of household saving provides us with the most plausible explanation for a continued high rate of savings and investment. China's labor force will soon stop growing, but migration out of agriculture should have little impact on farm output while providing a steady stream of labor to the modern more productive sectors. There is also room for rapid expansion of human capital. Maintaining high productivity growth will depend primarily on strengthening currently weak institutions, notably the financial sector and, more importantly, the legal system.     

低碳产业发展问题与对策研究

在应对全球气候变暖的背景下,低碳经济成为世界各国寻求经济与环境保护平衡发展的选择,低碳产业成为实现低碳经济发展的基础。从产业低碳化、低碳技术产业化和低碳产业规模化角度出发,研究了低碳产业的特征和发展中面临的问题。针对我国低碳产业运作机制不合理、产业标准不成熟、技术创新不足、节能减排难度大、面临新国际贸易规则等问题,提出了我国低碳产业发展的应对策略。