Can a Higher Inflation Target Reduce Inflation Volatility?

This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation volatility. Using monthly data from 1913 to 2013, the results show that U.S. inflation and its volatility have been positively correlated when inflation exceeds a certain value, but negatively correlated when inflation is below this threshold. The evidence also suggests that inflation volatility is minimized between annual inflation rates of 1 and 3.6%, which includes both the 2% inflation target of many central banks, and the 3.5% break point predicted by the New Keynesian model of Coibion et al. ( 2012 ), but not the 4% inflation target recommended by Ball ( 2013 ) and Krugman ( 2013 ).     

Declining Grain Output may Boost Inflation?

According to the announcement released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 12th,China's annual summer grain output in 2010fell for the first time in 7 years to123.10 million tons,a drop of 0.3%,or 0.39 million tons less than the previous year.     

Folgen der Inflation abfedern,aber wie?

Wirtschaftsdienst - Seit einigen Monaten ist die Inflation auf einem hohen Niveau. Um 7,5 % erhöhten sich die Verbraucherpreise in Deutschland im Juli 2022 gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Der...     

How Has Globalisation Affected Inflation in China?

This paper investigates how globalisation has affected inflation in China. We estimated standard Phillips curve inflation equations and examined whether globalisation has affected the structure of inflation dynamics as captured by the Phillips curve. Empirical results suggest that the globalisation of the Chinese economy has changed the behaviour of inflation dynamics. In particular, the impact of domestic and global output gaps on domestic inflation in China has changed significantly since 1994. Before 1994, the domestic output gap was a major factor in driving domestic inflation. After 1994, however, the global output gap plays a significant and more important role in affecting domestic inflation. The finding implies that Chinese monetary authorities should specifically take into account the developments in global output in their monetary policymaking process.     

Inflation nach Corona: Sind die Sorgen berechtigt?

Wirtschaftsdienst - Im August 2021 wird die deutsche Inflationsrate voraussichtlich auf 3,9 % steigen. Ein Teil davon dürfte einmaligen oder vorübergehenden Effekten geschuldet sein....     

Hot Money, National Risk?

After the phasal cease of the financial crisis, from the latter half of 2009 and on, the international hot money has been trying to make a comeback and has once again viewed China as its ohieet.Many have chosen Hong Kong as the path into China.In the third quarter of 2009, the hot money which uses Hong Kong as its gateway to flow into mainland China has forced the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to inject capital into the market.     

Control Inflation while Maintain Growth

Dragged by the U.S.subprime crisis and the soaring oil price,the global economy is slowing down,causing problems to China,the country which has continuously achieved miraculous economic growth.Apart from the ac- cumulation of high inflation and risks of overheated economy,China is attacked by serious natural disasters ever since the beginning of 2008,including the snow disaster,the earthquake and the flood.It is obviously that China's priority now is to bring inflation under control     

The Fed's New Communication Strategy: Is It Stealth Inflation Targeting?

Business Economics - Along with the minutes of the October 30-31, 2007, meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee released a summary of its members' forecasts of key economic variables, a...     

Why Did (Almost) No One See the Inflation Coming?

To understand the possible trajectory of inflation in 2022 and beyond, it is helpful to understand why the United States and Europe had so much inflation in 2021.

     

Correcting Inflation with Financial Dynamic Fundamentals: Which Adjustments Matter in Africa?

This article assesses the adjustment of inflation with financial dynamic fundamentals of money (financial depth), credit (financial activity), and efficiency. Three main findings are established: (a) there are significant long-run relationships between inflation and the fundamentals; (b) the error correction mechanism is stable in all specifications but in case of any disequilibrium, only financial depth is significant in adjusting inflation to the long-run relationship; and (c) in the long-run, short-term adjustments in the ability of banks to transform money into credit do not matter in correcting inflation. This is most probably due to surplus liquidity issues. Policy implications are discussed.     

Evaluating Political Risk Forecasting Models: What Works?

Definitions of “political risk” abound, including with “assessments” or “analysis,” but even though ratings are widely used by investors, few understand either the theory behind particular instruments or what the ratings say about their potential investment. The assessment of political risk works backward from losses to foreign investors (not domestic) that could have been insured or protected, to a determination of how high the risk is, what the cost of the likely loss might be, the type of insurance coverage that might be necessary, and then to what an investor should be willing to pay to protect against that risk. A wide range of potential losses and potential causes of those losses is covered by the many political risk assessment firms and indices that are available to potential investors. BERI, the PRS Group, ICRG, the Eurasia Group, PERC (Hong Kong), and many others provide an array of ratings that investors can employ in making their choices. Few of these focus on the critical element of forecasting. Insurance doesn't relate to circumstances of the moment but rather those of the future. What will they be? Just a few of the risk assessments (PRS, BERI, ICRG) deal explicitly with the future, as good as that might be. Few also deal with the matter of risks to particular industries, companies, regions of a country, or external circumstances (what are the country's neighbors up to?). This article offers some suggestions on improving the political risk assessment business. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Supply Relational Risk: What Role Does Guanxi Play?

The topics of supply chain risk and global sourcing have garnered significant attention in recent years. Although there is ample circumstantial evidence of global sourcing risk, especially from the western‐firm perspective of sourcing from China, few published studies have investigated the root causes of this risk. In this paper, we argue that much of the risk associated with sourcing from China stems from the differences associated with institutional norms and philosophical orientation between western and Chinese thought and culture. Based on an in‐depth literature review and case analysis, we compare western forms of supply chain relationship management with Guanxi, the Chinese form of relationship management and propose a framework of how western firms are exposed to supply relational risk when sourcing from Chinese suppliers. The framework proposed in this article sheds light for supply chain managers with regard to the potential pitfalls facing firms when working with Chinese suppliers, and provides the groundwork for future research regarding supply chain practices and Guanxi networks.     

Konjunkturschlaglicht: „Gefühlte“ Inflation

HWWA-KONJUNKTURFORUM

Konjunkturschlaglicht: „Gefühlte“ Inflation     

How Large Is the Risk of Stagflation in the Eurozone?

The rapid recovery of demand combined with supply constraints has led to rising prices during the past months. This is evident in oil and gas markets, but also in international trade, which has been thrown out of step by bottlenecks at Asian ports. This situation creates a trade-off for the European Central Bank, because a more expansionary monetary policy cannot mitigate the supply bottlenecks and supply-side restrictions, while a more restrictive monetary policy would slow down the economic recovery. For this reason, key interest rate hikes in the eurozone are not to be expected for 2022. If the supply-side factors become persistent and wage policy tries to pass the price effects on, monetary policy will be forced to become restrictive.

     

Does High Service Quality Reduce Risk or Create Idiosyncratic Returns?

This article explores the impact of service quality on idiosyncratic returns, idiosyncratic risk (nonsystematic risk), and beta (systematic risk). Service quality was derived from the airline quality rating, and three dependent variables were calculated by the Fama–French four-factor model. The data includes 1,512 monthly records from 1997 to 2006, across 21 airlines. Multiple regression and vector autoregressive models were applied to test relationships among all, low-cost, and non-low-cost airlines. The study found that service quality has a positive impact on idiosyncratic returns in non-low-cost airlines; non-low-cost airlines are less affected by changes in the external environment.     

Entrepreneurial Risk: Have We Been Asking the Wrong Question?

Entrepreneurs are often thought to engage in "risky" behaviors. Thus, they may be seen as more willing than average to take risks. We offer a dissenting view. Central to entrepreneurship is the alertness perspective which suggests that entrepreneurs may assess opportunities and threats differently than non-entrepreneurs. That differential assessment may be understood in terms of Bayesian probability. The Bayesian model argues that differing assessments of prospective outcomes may be attributable to differences in prior information. This perspective on risk assessment has implications for entrepreneurial decision making, whether to launch a new venture or adopt a growth strategy. The literature is reviewed, a synthesis is offered, a numerical example is developed, and a research agenda is proposed.     

Socially Responsible Investing: Is Your Fiduciary Duty at Risk?

Socially responsible investing identifies the fiduciary duty and liability for financial advisors serving individual and institutional clients when consulting in the SRI space. This article first discusses the role of a fiduciary emerging from both a legal and an ethical basis. Further, the special aspects of maintaining fiduciary duty and minimizing fiduciary liability are described as they relate to SRI. A number of recommendations are discussed: legal, ethical, and practice. This study argues that prudence focuses more on the process of decisions rather than their outcomes, as measured exclusively by rate of return.     

The Inflation Surge of 2021–22: Scarcity of Goods and Commodities,Strong Labor Markets and Anchored Inflation Expectations

The key to understanding the series of supply shocks that have hit inflation is the nature of the COVID-19 recession.

     

Money,Inflation and Output in Nigeria and South Africa: Could Friedman and Schwartz Be Right?

ABSTRACT

This study examines the non-linear relationship between money, inflation and output with respect to the Friedman and Schwartz hypotheses that monetary policy affects prices in the long-run but not in the short-run, and influences output in the short-run but not in the long-run. The study examines the case of Nigeria and South Africa for the period 1970–2016 using the ARDL approach. The study proved that Friedman and Schwartz were right that money growth influences output in the short-run and not in the long-run. This suggests monetary policy is neutral in the long-run; however, the findings of this study cast some doubts on their popular view that money growth affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. This study shows that money growth actually affects prices both in the short and long-run. Thus, it is only the long-run dimension of the second hypothesis that is valid; the short-run view of the hypothesis is invalid for both Nigeria and South Africa. In fact, the significant estimates of money growth on inflation in both countries prove that inflation is everywhere a monetary phenomenon (both in the short and long run).