Fiscal policy and economic growth: some evidence from China

Review of World Economics - China has experienced profound economic and social changes in recent decades. During this period, China’s fiscal policy framework has been substantially reformed....     

Increasing returns and economic growth: some evidence for manufacturing from the European Union regions: a correction

There was an error in the specification of the regression equation(23) (p.100) in the original paper of Fingleton and McCombie(1998), although it does not greatly alter any of the estimatedcoefficients of interest.     

Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the case of China over the period 1952–2001. After considering the time series characteristics of the dataset, a multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework is used as an appropriate specification and the long-run relationship among financial development, growth and other key growth factors is analyzed in a theoretically based high dimensional system by identification of co-integrating vectors through tests of over-identifying restrictions. The empirical results suggest that there exists a unidirectional causality from economic growth to financial development, conclusions departing distinctively from those in the previous studies.     

Fiscal policy and endogenous growth with public infrastructure

Optimal tax and spending allocation rules are derived in anendogenous growth model where raw labor must be educated tobecome productive and infrastructure services affect the schoolingtechnology. Growth- and welfare-maximizing solutions are comparedunder nonseparable utility in consumption and government-providedservices. Among other results, it is shown that the optimalshare of spending on infrastructure depends not only on productionelasticities but also on the quality of schooling and the degreeto which infrastructure services affect the production of educatedlabor. Congestion costs in education raise the optimal shareof spending on infrastructure.     

Environmental policy and sustainable economic growth

Summary This paper investigates the consequences of environmental policy for welfare, consumption and production growth in a situation in which environmental quality is initially too low. The natural environment is incorporated in endogenous growth theory in a way that is consistent with some simple notions from the laws of thermodynamics. Environmental policy affects growth, both in the long run and in the short run, by affecting the productivity of investment and the savings behavior of consumers. The environment provides necessary inputs to economic production and accumulation processes. Hence improvements in environmental quality that follow environmental policy may boost the productivity of the environment and growth.     

International trade and economic growth: evidence from a panel ARDL-PMG approach

The purpose of this work is to study the impact of trade openness on the economic growth of the countries bordering the Mediterranean using a panel of eight countries from 1975 to 2016. We apply ARDL panel which is a technique recently developed. We study the effects of openness to international trade on economic growth while incorporating economic policy variables. The results show that the variables of commercial and financial openness favor economic growth. The free trade agreements that the European Union has signed with certain countries in the Mediterranean basin are designed above all to encourage greater regional economic integration and an increase in their potential growth. Therefore, our findings show that the financial sector is slow to affect economic growth in these countries. This study reveals that human capital and the investment rate support the economic growth of our sample. In addition, we conclude that a process of economic convergence has begun in these countries. A causal analysis was carried out we found an unidirectional causality ranging from economic growth to trade openness.

     

汇率、货币政策与经济增长

一、名义汇率与实际汇率我们知道,汇率的变化会对国际贸易产生直接的影响。例如,当本币贬值时,以外币表示的本国出口商品价格下降,这使本国商品在国际市场上的竞争力增强,进而促进本国的出口增长。但是这里所说的汇率变化是名义汇率的变化还是实际汇率的变化呢?对于这个问题,我     

Fiscal policy and Dutch disease

In this paper we revisit the Dutch disease paying particular attention to the role of specific factors of production and capital stock dynamics. The main insight is that if the natural resource rich windfall is substantial but not large enough for the country to become a rentier, capital goods must be produced at home and adjustment to natural resource windfall takes time. It takes time to build this home-grown capital. Specific factors are crucial to explain the dynamic responses of the real exchange rate, capital intensities and wages in response to a natural resource windfall. If a country is small and the windfall is large, it may be able to import capital and migrant labour in which case the Dutch disease can be avoided.     

Public choice of economic policy: The growth of agricultural protection

Zusammenfassung “Public choice” und Wirtschaftspolitik: Die Zunahme der Agrarprotektion. - In diesem Aufsatz wird konzeptionell ein Rahmen entwickelt, um die Gründe für die jeweilige Wirtschaftspolitik zu erkl?ren und um ein verbreitetes Phónomen der wirtschaftlichen Protektion zu interpretieren, das von verschiedenen Untersuchungen bestótigt wird, n?omlich die Tendenz der Agrarprotektion, mit steigendem Entwicklungsniveau anzuwachsen. Das Modell umfa?t die “public-choice”-Theorie des politischen Einflusses von Gruppen in einem nichtkooperativen System, an dem die Befürworter und Gegner einer bestimmten Wirtschaftspolitik beteiligt sind. In den frühen Phasen der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung schlógt die Waage des politischen Einflusses meist zugunsten der Konsumenten und der Industrie aus. Wenn der Entwicklungsproze?voranschreitet, verschieben sich die Gewichte zugunsten der landwirtschaftlichen Erzeuger. Bei hóherem Entwicklungsstand werden die Realeinkommen der Landwirte empfindlicher in bezug auf die Agrarpreise, wóhrend die Konsumentenwohlfahrt und die nicht-landwirtschaftlichen Gewinne davon weniger berührt werden.

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Résumé ?Public choice? et la politique économique: La croissance de la protection agricole. - Dans cette étude les auteurs développent un cadre conceptuel pour expliquer les causes de la politique économique et l’appliquent pour interpréter une structure pervasive concernant la protection économique qui est consistante avec plusieurs études: la tendance de la protection agricole d’accro?tre avec le niveau de développement économique. Le modèle inclut les aspects de la théorie du ?public choice? d’une provision de groupe de l’influence politique en cadre non-coopératif concernant les propagateurs et les opposants d’une certaine politique publique. En jeune stage du développement, la balance de l’influence politique a la tendance de se pencher envers les consommateurs et les producteurs industriels. Si le développement s’avance la balance se tourne en faveur des producteurs agricoles. Aux niveaux plus hauts du développement, les revenus réels des producteurs agricoles deviennent plus sensitifs au prix agricole pendant que le bien-être des consommateurs et les profits non-agricoles deviennent moins sensitifs.

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Resumen ?Public choice? de politica económica: el aumento de la protection a la agriculture. - En este trabajo se desarrolla un marco conceptual para explicar las causas de la politica económica y se lo aplica con el fin de interpretar una pauta común en relation a la protection económica: la tendencia que tiene la protection a la agriculture de aumentar con el nivel de desarrollo económico. El modelo contiene aspectos de ?public choice? en cuanto a la influencia poh’tica de grupos sociales en un contexto no cooperativo abarcando a defensores y opositores de una cierta politica. En las primeras etapas del desarrollo la balanza de influencia politica tiende a inclinarse en favor de los consumidores y de los productores industriales. Con el avance del desarrollo la balanza se inclina en favor de los productores de la agricultura. En las etapas avanzadas del desarrollo el ingreso real de los productores de la agriculture se torna más sensitivo al precio mientras que el bienestar del consumidor y los beneficios de los demás sectores se tornan menos sensitivos al precio.

     

Fiscal and monetary policy on the way to EMU

We present the simulations of fiscal adjustment policies to the Maastricht criteria in the European economies based on a rational-expectations model of the G7 economies. We find that an effort to achieve the fiscal criteria inflicts pronounced recessions on the European economies. Furthermore, the fiscal and the inflation criteria lack consistency. A return to fixed exchange rates in Europe worsens the results of fiscal retrenchment in Europe. All of this implies that a hard interpretation of the criteria is neither a desirable nor a credible strategy for EMU.CEPR     

Political instability, policy uncertainty, and economic growth: An empirical investigation

This paper elaborates upon the effect of political stability on economic growth using a novel approach. Unlike the literature on growth that emphasizes the turnover of decision makers, this paper focuses on the volatility of economic policies as the relevant indicator of stability. The literature on growth ignores the microeconomic instability associated with frequent changes of government policies. The empirical results of this paper indicate that the effect of political instability on economic growth is not conclusive. Most of the commonly used proxies for political instability have failed to explain growth differences across countries. The political instability indices have no significant effect on growth when a reasonable set of core variables is also included in the regression equation. The results also show that almost all of the policy uncertainty variables are significantly and negatively correlated with economic growth. However, the instability of economic policies has no significant impact on the accumulation of capital.     

中国经济政策不能被“4万亿”所困——必须充分估计“全球疫情危机”的严重性

吸取2008年的4万亿教训是正确的,但必须正确吸取教训。而错误认识4万亿的教训,会令我们应对当下的全球疫情危机畏首畏尾,而错失重大历史机遇。如何看待4万亿政策?我们要以历史唯物主义的精神客观评价。2007年之前的若干年,中国经济过热实际是外需过热,美国金融机构帮助底层民众从房地产涨价中套取现金并用于消费,而他们所需的大量中低端消费品很多又来自中国,从而推动中国投资、外贸暴涨。     

新经济增长理论对我国技术进步的启示

新经济增长理论认为经济增长的源泉是内生技术进步,从长期看,政府可以通过促进技术进步,提高经济的长期增长率。目前我国正处于增长转型时期,技术进步对我国经济持续增长的意义不言而喻。本文从罗默“知识驱动”模型出发,分析我国实现技术进步的途径,为我国经济增长途径找到制度应用的理论依据。     

Fertility,income distribution and economic growth: theory and cross-country evidence: comments

In a recent paper, Galor and Zang attempt to explain the large observed cross-country disparities in the levels and growth rates of per capita output. Cross-country variation in family size and income distribution patterns are an important element of such an explanation. Galor and Zang support the arguments put forth in their paper by using a simple variation of the model published by Galor and Zeira in 1993 and 70 cross-sectional growth regressions in the style of Barro's 1991 work. Some points in Galor and Zang's recent work require clarification. The author therefore reviews their work with the goal of clarifying some of Galor and Zang's underlying assumptions which are not that clear in their paper. The aim is to give the reader an idea of what Galor and Zang's paper does and does not do.     

Fertility,income distribution,and economic growth: theory and cross-country evidence

The authors perform discriminatory, empirical tests of a theoretical model that predicts that family size adversely affects output per capita and nonsteady state growth rates. Neoclassical models posit that adverse output and nonsteady growth rates are affected by labor force growth (LFG) or population growth (PG). This study tests whether family size (FS) will be more significant than LFG or PG in explaining differences in economic growth (EG) rates across countries during 1960-88. A proxy variable for the public education system was used to separate government interventions on human capital formation from market forces. Data were obtained for 73 countries, which exclude centrally planned economies, oil-producing countries, and those with less than 1 million population. The empirical test is run with 58-country, 45-country, and 96-country samples to test for robustness and reliability. The empirical test supports the theoretical model. It demonstrates that equal distribution of income and smaller FS enhance EG. With income inequality, the effect of FS was significant, and the effect of the LFG rate or PG rate was insignificant. With a given FS, LFG was positively correlated with EG. A reduction of the net fertility rate by one point would increase the worker output growth rate by 0.25%, and the differences in growth rates between high- and low-fertility countries would be 1%. An increase in the income share of the bottom 60% would increase the growth rate of worker output by about 1%. Higher investments in public or private education would be conducive to growth.     

Institutions and economic performance: evidence from the labour market

We analyse the institutional determinants of economic performance,taking European labour-market institutions as a case in point.European economic growth after the Second World War was basedon Fordist technologies, a setting to which the continent'sinstitutions of solidaristic wage bargaining were ideally suited.They eased distributive conflicts and delivered wage moderation,which in turn supported high investment. The wage compressionthat was a corollary of their operation was of little consequenceso long as the dominant technologies were such that firms couldrely on a relatively homogeneous labour force. But as Fordismgave way to diversified quality production, which relied moreon highly skilled workers, the centralization of bargainingand the compression of wages became impediments rather thanaids to growth. Assuming that growth will rely even more inthe future on rapidly changing, science-based, skilled-labour-intensivetechnologies, countries with centralized labour-market institutionswill have to move still further in the direction of decentralization.Whether Europe in particular can accommodate these demands willhelp to determine whether it is able to re-establish a fullemployment economy in the twenty-first century.     

Exports and labor costs: evidence from a French policy

We investigate the role that labor costs hold in exporters’ performance. To do so, we exploit a large-scale French reform that granted most firms a tax credit proportional to the wagebill of their employees paid below a given threshold. This policy effectively translated into a cut in labor cost whose magnitude varies depending on firm-specific wage structures. We use the predicted treatment intensity based on pre-reform composition of the labor force as an instrument for the actual policy-induced firm-level change in labor costs. Although our point estimates are consistent with commonly estimated firm-level trade elasticities combined with reasonable labor shares in total costs, coefficients are found to be very noisy, suggesting lack of robust evidence of a causal effect of the policy. We discuss several potential explanations for our results as well as their implications.     

Resource abundance and economic growth in China

This paper revisits the resource curse phenomenon in China and differs from the previous studies in four respects: (i) City-level data is used; (ii) A spatial variable is constructed to estimate the diffusion effect of natural resources among cities in the same province; (iii) The impact of resource abundance on economic development is investigated not only at the city level but also at the prefectural level in China; (iv) We use a functional coefficient regression model to deal with city-specific heterogeneity and, at the same time, analyze the transmission mechanism of the resource curse phenomenon. Our empirical results show that there is no significant evidence to support the existence of a resource curse phenomenon in China. On the other hand, we find that the degree of natural resource abundance in a city has a positive diffusion effect on the economic growth of neighboring cities within the same province at the city level, but not at prefectural levels. We attribute this to the urban bias policy.