跨国公司大面积亏损造成的税收损失问题研究

据统计,在我国有相当部分跨国公司处于亏损状态,这些跨国公司有相当部分是为了避税而人为制造亏损,这给我国的税收造成了很大的损失.如何减少税收损失,从博弈论的角度探讨可以得出结论:较小的跨国公司逃税的概率,有利于增加政府财政收入;较小的税务机关稽查的概率,可以节省稽查成本,根据这两个方面建立完善的管理制度将会减少这方面的税收损失.     

JAVA中环境变量的设置和使用

JAVA程序设计过程中需要涉及环境变量的设置和使用,尤其是path和classpath这两个环境变量.path环境变量用来设置我们要执行的命令所在的目录,而classpath环境变量用来设置我们的JVM虚拟机要查找的类名所在的目录.如何查看、设置、新建和取消环境变量是我们这里要讨论的问题.     

论自然环境对古希腊艺术的影响

古希腊艺术与古希腊自然坏境息息相关,地理环境造就了古希腊艺术的性格;自然物产形成古希腊艺术的主要形式;温和气候以及地理位置铸就古希腊艺术的世界观.本文通过对古希腊自然环境与艺术关系的研究,阐释出古希腊辉煌的艺术深深植根于古希腊的自然环境的土壤中.     

立足创业富民推进创新强市

当前,我们正处于以创新制胜的时代,创新是我们工作的基本要求和永恒主题.创新,对我们来说,不是权宜之计、不是应景之作,而是贯穿于经济社会发展的方方面面,包含在我们工作的每一个环节和部位.     

"金盾风采"——深圳市公安局宝安分局系列报道之(四)科技强警用实招真抓实干为人民——深圳市公安局宝安分局流塘派出所

流塘派出所是宝安分局第一个被公安部评定授予的一级派出所;派出所现有民警55人,警力占实有人口比例为万分之三点四;辖区面积27.1平方公里,总人口16万人,其中户籍人口1.2万人,非户籍14.8万人,二者比例严重倒挂,达到1:12;辖区下设7个社区,有工业区8个、工厂449家、出租屋40934间、商铺3167间、特种行业70间;外来人口多、出租屋多、交通要道多、编制警力少,治安管理任务十分艰巨.     

漂亮办公楼焉能吸引更多投资

作为国家扶贫开发工作重点县的四川省阆中市(县级市),其一些行政机关却超标建设起各类漂亮的办公楼.相关现象被媒体报道后,引来舆论的强烈批评.但是,阆中市的官员对这种批评却不以为然.审计局局长在解释办公楼为什么要建成别墅造型时说,这样做是为了"节约成本";而阆中市委一名官员则如此来给漂亮办公楼现象"定性":"媒体在报道时,强调了阆中是国定贫困县的背景.但我认为,贫困县难道就不能建一些好的楼房吗?";"漂亮的办公楼也能吸引更多投资,带动阆中经济发展."(9月3日《中国青年报》)     

故宫星巴克事件背后的文化焦虑

从在非洲的投资到在拉美的外交活动,从能源需求到地缘渗透,中国的快速发展正深刻改写着世界权力版图.然而这也带来了新的问题:中国是谁?它将以何种面貌和身份崛起?     

“牛肉面限价”存在什么样的市场需求

一纸限价令,让有关兰州牛肉面的话题就像是刚出锅的牛肉面一样,顿时在全国"热气腾腾"起来.<人民日报>、新华社、央视以及全国各地其他媒体纷纷对此表现出极大的关注.那么,牛肉面究竟该不该限价?据<兰州晨报>报道,相关物价部门,牛肉面与民生息息相关,政府应该管,有关消费者也表示,牛肉面如同水电价,政府应出面干涉.(<兰州晨报>7月9日)     

美国通胀：紧随次贷危机的魔影

由于次贷危机的恶化导致了宏观经济可能出现放缓和收缩,美国国内无论决策层面还是市场层面都对通货膨胀的走势作出了非常乐观地估计,甚至美联储在最新一次的货币政策会议声明中明确指出:"经济增长的风险大于通货膨胀的风险",然而,物价的全新上升态势却让人们本以麻木的神经不得不变得重新绷紧起来。     

浅议锡剧传承

锡剧是用无锡方言演唱,用无锡地名命名的地方戏,源于江南地区的吴歌,俗称"无锡滩簧",从江南农村小调演化而来,形成于清乾隆至嘉庆年间,是我省重要的戏曲剧种,在江、浙、沪一带有着广泛影响,被誉为"太湖一支梅".     

Information Linkages between Chinese and World Copper Futures Markets

In this paper, we examine the price discovery process and volatility spillover effects in informationally linked futures markets. Using synchronous trading information from the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), and the London Metal Exchange (LME) for copper futures from 2000 to 2012, we show that the cointegration relationships of these futures markets changed during 2006–2008. The results indicate that there is a bidirectional relationship in terms of price and volatility spillovers between the LME and NYMEX and the SHFE, with a stronger effect from the LME and NYMEX to the SHFE (versus the effect from the SHFE to the LME and NYMEX) prior to 2006. Our results also highlight the increasingly prominent role of the SHFE in the price formation process and cross-volatility spillover effects since 2008. Finally, we show that volatility spillover has important implications for constructing optimized portfolios for copper investors.     

国内、国际期货市场期货价格之间的关联研究

该文利用协整检验和Granger因果检验等技术,首次对国内和国际期货市场的铜、铝、大豆和小麦的期货价格之间的动态关系进行了实证研究.结果显示:上海期货交易所与伦敦金属交易所铜、铝的期货价格之间存在长期均衡关系,大连商品交易所与芝加哥期货交易所大豆的期货价格之间存在协整关系;相对而言,国外市场的影响力较大;郑州商品交易所与芝加哥期货交易所小麦期货价格之间不存在协整关系.     

沪铜期货市场价格发现的动态贡献——基于状态空间模型的实证研究

商品期货价格与现货价格的相互关系一直是学术界研究的热点,但大都基于静态的模型。本文从期货定价的持有成本理论出发,通过误差修正方程构建状态空间模型,利用卡尔曼滤波算法从动态的角度研究了2004-2012年期间我国沪铜期货市场价格发现的贡献。实证结果显示:2004-2012年,我国沪铜期货市场价格发现的贡献随着时间的变化而变化。2004-2008年逐步增强;2008年金融危机后,逐步下滑,到2010年,落后于现货市场;之后又有回升趋势。总体来看,沪铜期货市场在价格发现中处于主导地位,但具有明显的波动性。     

Volatility–volume co-movements: evidence from China metal markets

This article investigates the interactional relationship between price volatility and futures trading activity for three heavily traded metal products on the Shanghai Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Using models based on vector autoregression and generalized method of moments, we show, in particular, that futures trading activity has a strong impact on both spot and futures price volatility in copper and aluminium markets. Futures trading activity leads spot market volatility in copper and aluminium markets which suggests that futures markets have a destabilizing effect. In order to disentangle the effect of different traders’ types on asset price movements, we decompose futures trading into speculators’ and hedgers’ trading and investigate their contributions to volatility. As a robustness check, we investigate the impact of endogenous structural breaks on the interactional relationship between price volatility and futures trading.     

期货价格收益率与波动性的实证研究——以中国上海与英国伦敦为例

采用协整模型、Granger因果关系检验、ECM模型及几种GARCH模型对中国上海与英国伦敦金属期货价格收益率和波动性做了研究.发现两市期货价格之间存在Granger因果关系、协整关系、同向变动关系和长期的共同趋势.采用ECM模型研究了两市的短期波动差异.GARCH类模型研究发现,两市波动性存在非对称性、溢出效应、杠杆效应.上海对伦敦市场的单向溢出效应显著存在.两市存在的利空消息均大于利多消息的作用,伦敦期货市场风险大于上海期货市场风险.     

Simultaneity,Forecasting and Profits in London Copper Futures

Previous research on price determination for non‐ferrous metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME) suffers from three limitations: first it has employed single equation methods only, which cannot explain the simultaneous determination of spot and futures prices; second, by focusing on current and lagged prices, previous research does not analyse the effect on price determination of critical variables such as expectations, consumption and inventories; third, the outcome of prior research regarding market efficiency is ambiguous. This paper, which addresses these issues, develops a simultaneous model of the copper market at the LME, with representation of the activities of hedgers, speculators and consumers. This model produces post‐sample forecasts of the spot price which outperform conventional benchmarks, thus providing evidence against the efficient market hypothesis. Model‐derived forecasts are employed as the foundation of a trading program which produces risk‐adjusted profits (net of commission costs) for holding periods of one week and one month, thus fulfilling the ‘sufficient condition’ for market inefficiency. This study, therefore, provides new insights into price determination on the LME copper market, and resolves the ambiguity of previous research regarding the efficiency of that market. This is the first application of the model forecasting approach to the question of performance of the market for copper.     

Cointegration and detectable linear and nonlinear causality: analysis using the London Metal Exchange lead contract

This study applies linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to examine the dynamic relation between London Metal Exchange (LME) cash prices and three possible predictors. The analysis uses matched quarterly inventory, UK Treasury bill interest rates, futures prices and cash prices for the commodity lead traded on the LME. The effects of cointegration on both linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests is also examined. When cointegration is not modelled, evidence is found of both linear and nonlinear causality between cash prices and analysed predictor variables. However, after controlling for cointegration, evidence of significant nonlinear causality is no longer found. These results contribute to the empirical literature on commodity price forecasting by highlighting the relationship between cointegration and detectable linear and nonlinear causality. The importance of interest rate and inventory as well as futures price in forecasting cash prices is also illustrated. Failure to detect significant nonlinearity after controlling for cointegration may also go some way to explaining the reason for the disappointing forecasting performances of many nonlinear models in the general finance literature. It may be that the variables are correct, but the functional form is overly complex and a standard VAR or VECM may often apply.     

Hedging against bunker price fluctuations using petroleum futures contracts: constant versus time-varying hedge ratios

The effectiveness of hedging marine bunker price fluctuations in Rotterdam, Singapore and Houston is examined using different crude oil and petroleum future contracts traded at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) in London. Using both constant and dynamic hedge ratios, it is found that in and out-of-sample hedging effectiveness is different across regional bunker markets. The most effective futures instruments for out of sample hedging of spot bunker prices in Rotterdam and Singapore are the IPE crude oil futures, while for Houston it is the gas oil futures. Differences in hedging effectiveness across regional markets are attributed to the varying regional supply and demand factors in each market. In comparison to other markets, the cross-market hedging effectiveness investigated in the bunker market is low.     

股指期货限制交易对定价效率影响研究*——基于跨市场信息传递视角的实证

从跨国金融市场信息传递的视角对中国2015年股灾中股指期货限制交易政策实施前后的中美市场实证分析表明：股指期货的限制交易政策极大地增强了美国市场对中国市场的影响，尤其是在下跌行情中的影响更大。分位数回归显示美国市场的交易活动对中国市场开盘价的影响呈“V”型特征，美国市场的微小波动都会引起中国市场的巨大波动，限制交易措施实施后，在下跌行情中来自美国市场的负冲击对中国市场的影响变得更大。这一实证研究的政策含义在于：为了增强股指期货市场的定价效率，金融监管层在市场稳定后应放开股指期货的限制交易，并通过降低准入门槛和合约大小等措施提高市场的开放程度。此外，监管层和国内投资者不能忽视美国股指期货对国内市场的影响。     

纽约黄金期货价格波动对我国期货市场收益率的影响研究

随着我国期货市场的迅速发展,商品期货逐步显示出金融属性。本文运用自回归分布滞后模型结合GARCH族模型对纽约黄金期货价格波动与我国上海期货交易所沪铜、沪铝、沪锌、天然橡胶、燃料油期货价格波动之间的动态关系展开研究,以考察宏观经济运行对我国期货市场的影响。