探访雅鲁藏布江源

出拉萨,过日喀则,逆江而上,一直向西,经拉孜、萨嘎、仲巴,我们去寻访这条高原民族母亲河--雅鲁藏布江的源头.这条我国著名的外流河,西藏第一大河,名称来源于藏语,意思是"从最高山峰上流下来的水".雅鲁藏布江源头杰马央宗冰川海拔5 590米,深藏在喜马拉雅山脉西段北麓的雪山深处,高接天际.性能好的越野车,七拐八绕,可以一直开到冰舌脚下. 一路上,道路时常被流沙覆盖.     

浅谈自来水公司财务管理存在的问题及对策

随着现代企业制度日渐完善,财务管在社会主义市场经济中发挥着重大的作用.加强自来水公司的财务管理工作,规范财务行为,对保障单位的健康发展非常重要,本文结合自来水公司的特点,对财务管理工作中存在的问题及如何加强和规范其财务管理工作进行了探讨.     

最低工资制度的博弈分析

目前最低工资制度在我国实施存在着标准偏低、制度不能切实落实等问题.本文从博弈论的角度出发,首先进行劳资双方博弈分析,对最低工资制度的合理性进行论证.在此基础上,通过对政府与企业行为进行博弈分析,剖析原因,寻找双方的均衡点,达到既保障劳动者生活权益,又维护企业的经营权益,促进本地经济发展的目的,推进最低工资制度的健康发展.     

跨国公司大面积亏损造成的税收损失问题研究

据统计,在我国有相当部分跨国公司处于亏损状态,这些跨国公司有相当部分是为了避税而人为制造亏损,这给我国的税收造成了很大的损失.如何减少税收损失,从博弈论的角度探讨可以得出结论:较小的跨国公司逃税的概率,有利于增加政府财政收入;较小的税务机关稽查的概率,可以节省稽查成本,根据这两个方面建立完善的管理制度将会减少这方面的税收损失.     

JAVA中环境变量的设置和使用

JAVA程序设计过程中需要涉及环境变量的设置和使用,尤其是path和classpath这两个环境变量.path环境变量用来设置我们要执行的命令所在的目录,而classpath环境变量用来设置我们的JVM虚拟机要查找的类名所在的目录.如何查看、设置、新建和取消环境变量是我们这里要讨论的问题.     

论自然环境对古希腊艺术的影响

古希腊艺术与古希腊自然坏境息息相关,地理环境造就了古希腊艺术的性格;自然物产形成古希腊艺术的主要形式;温和气候以及地理位置铸就古希腊艺术的世界观.本文通过对古希腊自然环境与艺术关系的研究,阐释出古希腊辉煌的艺术深深植根于古希腊的自然环境的土壤中.     

抗震救灾献爱心 白云山和黄爱心慰问团亲赴灾区

2008年5月12日四川汶川地震已在四川、甘肃、陕西、重庆、云南、山西、贵州、湖北等省市造成了巨大的破坏。突如其来的灾害,震撼着每一个华夏儿女的心灵!作为国内知名医药企业,白云山和黄中药在5     

立足创业富民推进创新强市

当前,我们正处于以创新制胜的时代,创新是我们工作的基本要求和永恒主题.创新,对我们来说,不是权宜之计、不是应景之作,而是贯穿于经济社会发展的方方面面,包含在我们工作的每一个环节和部位.     

房市调控“税费杠杆”岂是万能

最近,建设部有关领导透露,目前住房"保有环节"的税费比较低,或者基本没有.建设部正联合财政部等相关主管部门研究住房"保有环节"税费的收取,有可能对户型面积偏大的住房收取一定的税费,引导合理的住宅消费,鼓励老百姓购买小套型、功能良好的住宅.     

安溪铁观音喜创世纪行

茶产业是安溪最大的传统民生产业.安溪人坚持以提高质量为核心,以保护品牌为重点,以规范市场为抓手,推动茶产业持续健康稳步发展.逐步实现由家庭小作坊向社会化分工转变,由单一种植业,向多元经营转变,由数量产值型向质量效益型转变.至2007年底,全县茶园总面积50万亩,约占全国茶园面积的1/50;年产茶叶5.2万吨,约占全国茶叶总产量的1/25;涉茶行业总产值57亿元,受益人口80多万人.     

Information Linkages between Chinese and World Copper Futures Markets

In this paper, we examine the price discovery process and volatility spillover effects in informationally linked futures markets. Using synchronous trading information from the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), and the London Metal Exchange (LME) for copper futures from 2000 to 2012, we show that the cointegration relationships of these futures markets changed during 2006–2008. The results indicate that there is a bidirectional relationship in terms of price and volatility spillovers between the LME and NYMEX and the SHFE, with a stronger effect from the LME and NYMEX to the SHFE (versus the effect from the SHFE to the LME and NYMEX) prior to 2006. Our results also highlight the increasingly prominent role of the SHFE in the price formation process and cross-volatility spillover effects since 2008. Finally, we show that volatility spillover has important implications for constructing optimized portfolios for copper investors.     

国内、国际期货市场期货价格之间的关联研究

该文利用协整检验和Granger因果检验等技术,首次对国内和国际期货市场的铜、铝、大豆和小麦的期货价格之间的动态关系进行了实证研究.结果显示:上海期货交易所与伦敦金属交易所铜、铝的期货价格之间存在长期均衡关系,大连商品交易所与芝加哥期货交易所大豆的期货价格之间存在协整关系;相对而言,国外市场的影响力较大;郑州商品交易所与芝加哥期货交易所小麦期货价格之间不存在协整关系.     

沪铜期货市场价格发现的动态贡献——基于状态空间模型的实证研究

商品期货价格与现货价格的相互关系一直是学术界研究的热点,但大都基于静态的模型。本文从期货定价的持有成本理论出发,通过误差修正方程构建状态空间模型,利用卡尔曼滤波算法从动态的角度研究了2004-2012年期间我国沪铜期货市场价格发现的贡献。实证结果显示:2004-2012年,我国沪铜期货市场价格发现的贡献随着时间的变化而变化。2004-2008年逐步增强;2008年金融危机后,逐步下滑,到2010年,落后于现货市场;之后又有回升趋势。总体来看,沪铜期货市场在价格发现中处于主导地位,但具有明显的波动性。     

Volatility–volume co-movements: evidence from China metal markets

This article investigates the interactional relationship between price volatility and futures trading activity for three heavily traded metal products on the Shanghai Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Using models based on vector autoregression and generalized method of moments, we show, in particular, that futures trading activity has a strong impact on both spot and futures price volatility in copper and aluminium markets. Futures trading activity leads spot market volatility in copper and aluminium markets which suggests that futures markets have a destabilizing effect. In order to disentangle the effect of different traders’ types on asset price movements, we decompose futures trading into speculators’ and hedgers’ trading and investigate their contributions to volatility. As a robustness check, we investigate the impact of endogenous structural breaks on the interactional relationship between price volatility and futures trading.     

期货价格收益率与波动性的实证研究——以中国上海与英国伦敦为例

采用协整模型、Granger因果关系检验、ECM模型及几种GARCH模型对中国上海与英国伦敦金属期货价格收益率和波动性做了研究.发现两市期货价格之间存在Granger因果关系、协整关系、同向变动关系和长期的共同趋势.采用ECM模型研究了两市的短期波动差异.GARCH类模型研究发现,两市波动性存在非对称性、溢出效应、杠杆效应.上海对伦敦市场的单向溢出效应显著存在.两市存在的利空消息均大于利多消息的作用,伦敦期货市场风险大于上海期货市场风险.     

Simultaneity,Forecasting and Profits in London Copper Futures

Previous research on price determination for non‐ferrous metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME) suffers from three limitations: first it has employed single equation methods only, which cannot explain the simultaneous determination of spot and futures prices; second, by focusing on current and lagged prices, previous research does not analyse the effect on price determination of critical variables such as expectations, consumption and inventories; third, the outcome of prior research regarding market efficiency is ambiguous. This paper, which addresses these issues, develops a simultaneous model of the copper market at the LME, with representation of the activities of hedgers, speculators and consumers. This model produces post‐sample forecasts of the spot price which outperform conventional benchmarks, thus providing evidence against the efficient market hypothesis. Model‐derived forecasts are employed as the foundation of a trading program which produces risk‐adjusted profits (net of commission costs) for holding periods of one week and one month, thus fulfilling the ‘sufficient condition’ for market inefficiency. This study, therefore, provides new insights into price determination on the LME copper market, and resolves the ambiguity of previous research regarding the efficiency of that market. This is the first application of the model forecasting approach to the question of performance of the market for copper.     

Cointegration and detectable linear and nonlinear causality: analysis using the London Metal Exchange lead contract

This study applies linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to examine the dynamic relation between London Metal Exchange (LME) cash prices and three possible predictors. The analysis uses matched quarterly inventory, UK Treasury bill interest rates, futures prices and cash prices for the commodity lead traded on the LME. The effects of cointegration on both linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests is also examined. When cointegration is not modelled, evidence is found of both linear and nonlinear causality between cash prices and analysed predictor variables. However, after controlling for cointegration, evidence of significant nonlinear causality is no longer found. These results contribute to the empirical literature on commodity price forecasting by highlighting the relationship between cointegration and detectable linear and nonlinear causality. The importance of interest rate and inventory as well as futures price in forecasting cash prices is also illustrated. Failure to detect significant nonlinearity after controlling for cointegration may also go some way to explaining the reason for the disappointing forecasting performances of many nonlinear models in the general finance literature. It may be that the variables are correct, but the functional form is overly complex and a standard VAR or VECM may often apply.     

Hedging against bunker price fluctuations using petroleum futures contracts: constant versus time-varying hedge ratios

The effectiveness of hedging marine bunker price fluctuations in Rotterdam, Singapore and Houston is examined using different crude oil and petroleum future contracts traded at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) in London. Using both constant and dynamic hedge ratios, it is found that in and out-of-sample hedging effectiveness is different across regional bunker markets. The most effective futures instruments for out of sample hedging of spot bunker prices in Rotterdam and Singapore are the IPE crude oil futures, while for Houston it is the gas oil futures. Differences in hedging effectiveness across regional markets are attributed to the varying regional supply and demand factors in each market. In comparison to other markets, the cross-market hedging effectiveness investigated in the bunker market is low.     

股指期货限制交易对定价效率影响研究*——基于跨市场信息传递视角的实证

从跨国金融市场信息传递的视角对中国2015年股灾中股指期货限制交易政策实施前后的中美市场实证分析表明：股指期货的限制交易政策极大地增强了美国市场对中国市场的影响，尤其是在下跌行情中的影响更大。分位数回归显示美国市场的交易活动对中国市场开盘价的影响呈“V”型特征，美国市场的微小波动都会引起中国市场的巨大波动，限制交易措施实施后，在下跌行情中来自美国市场的负冲击对中国市场的影响变得更大。这一实证研究的政策含义在于：为了增强股指期货市场的定价效率，金融监管层在市场稳定后应放开股指期货的限制交易，并通过降低准入门槛和合约大小等措施提高市场的开放程度。此外，监管层和国内投资者不能忽视美国股指期货对国内市场的影响。     

纽约黄金期货价格波动对我国期货市场收益率的影响研究

随着我国期货市场的迅速发展,商品期货逐步显示出金融属性。本文运用自回归分布滞后模型结合GARCH族模型对纽约黄金期货价格波动与我国上海期货交易所沪铜、沪铝、沪锌、天然橡胶、燃料油期货价格波动之间的动态关系展开研究,以考察宏观经济运行对我国期货市场的影响。