Hospitals and reengineering

One of the key success factors for reengineering in hospitals will be the ability of health care leaders to redefine their organizations in terms of process. Hospital managers are responding with anything from mergers to minor shifts in strategic thinking. Some hospital leaders answering the call for significant change are faced without dated models that are complex and inflexible.     

全球经济走势预测

美林公司:对全球经济前景依然乐观美林公司国际业务部的总裁雅各布·弗伦克尔日前称,美国和世界其他经济体并没有走向衰退。雅各布·弗伦克尔在国际金融学院的春季成员会议上强调,尽管许多经济指标一直在下滑,但是推动经济增长的主要因素如消费支出和借贷等仍保持正常。弗伦克尔补充说,美国联邦储备委员会已经表明它将不会允许衰退的出现,而且所有其他基本面都表明经济正处于增长状态。这些基本面因素包括竞争性的环境、放松管制的市场、健全的金融体系、良好的生产效率、较低的通货膨胀、不成问题的预算、以及实实在在的技术和信息革命。     

Managerial intervention in forecasting. An empirical investigation of forecast manipulation

There has been a continuing debate in the forecasting literature concerning the relative advantages of quantitative versus qualitative approaches to forecasting. However, although a considerable number of studies have contrasted the merits of the two approaches, relatively few efforts have investigated the application of human judgement on forecasts generated by quantitative forecasting models. This study is an empirical investigation of the effects of human intervention on forecast accuracy. It examines the consequences of managerial manipulation of sales forecasts initially produced by a smoothing model. A total of 281 products are investigated using multiple measures of forecast accuracy and the effects of subjective revision are discussed in terms of size, directionality, and distribution of errors. The results indicate that human intervention can lead to an overall improvement in forecast performance as reflected in a reduction in the variability and absolute size of forecasting errors. The results also show that more forecasts are improved by manipulation than are degraded. Finally, there is some indication that subjective revision may result in an increase in overall forecasting bias. These findings appear to conflict with previous evidence, however, the empirical setting of the present study is specific to shortterm sales forecasting which is not strictly comparable with the settings of earlier efforts.     

2001年东亚经济预测

简介 20世纪末,英国《经济学家》杂志刊文分析全球经济变冷下的东亚经济崛起(除中国和日本),并对其前景作展望。根据出口业和投资环境的特征,几个国家和地区被分成三个类型进行讨论。文章暗示:在中国大陆和日本经济稳定的前提下,东亚有可能摆脱出口需求减少和油价波动的影响,关键取决于台湾和韩国投资环境的改善。20世纪末要找刺激,不妨投资成长中的东亚股市。1998年度的大幅下跌,紧随是1999年度令人惊叹的反弹,然后2000年3月又开始揪心的狂跌。有理由担心:这是否预示着正从危机中康复的东亚将在新世纪初遇到新的麻烦?     

北京市医院门诊服务满意度研究

<正>中国改革开放以来,医疗卫生体制发生了很大变化,在某些方面也取得了进展,但暴露的问题更为严重。看病难、看病贵、服务差是老百姓经常抱怨的话题。老百姓甚至将医疗、教育、养老三大支出喻为"新三座大山"。     

A financial market forecast of industrial policy

This paper examines the reaction of foreign equity markets to anticipated changes in economic conditions. The ability of the equity markets to correctly anticipate economic behavior may be influenced by the existence of a national industrial policy designed to enhance economic growth. If market participants can rely on announced Industrial Policy to influence economic behavior, then security returns may lead economic events. To the extent that Industrial Policy is non-existent or inconsistently applied, market returns would not be expected to lead economic changes. This paper tests the hypothesis that Industrial Policy permits equity markets to correctly forecast economic condition.

Data for the United States, United Kingdom, West Germany, and Japan are used in testing for relationships between return on equity and industrial production. The period between 1952 and 1985 is employed in the analysis. The results suggest that the Japanese market is able to consistently anticipate changes in industrial production, while the markets in the remaining three countries are not able to anticipate economic policy.     

1991 forecast: the year of restructuring

How is the foodservice industry faring under the clouds of three big uncertainties--oil prices, recession and war? All things considered, its doing quite well. This annual status report of commercial and institutional business shows fast food, catering, nursing homes and employee feeding with growth percentages on the good, left side of the decimal point. Our forecast includes business trends to watch, food trends to guide menu planning and pricing, and interior- and kitchen-design trends that can be a blueprint for a successful new year.