A stochastic model for technology forecasting

A stochastic model for technology forecasting is proposed. A complete analysis of the model is given and application to a real problem is presented.     

新形势下开发区发展战略的调整

以2001年成功入世为标志,我国的对外开放进入了一个崭新的发展阶段。在开拓对外开放新局面的形势下,二十多年来在我国对外开放中扮演重要角色的各级各类开发区正面临新的发展环境。与此相适应,开发区的优势须作重新评估,开发区的功能须作相应转换,开发区的发展战略及措施也须进     

Measuring and forecasting regional environmental and economic efficiency in Italy

Environmental and economic efficiency has being receiving growing attention among researchers. In general terms, this concept is related to the capability of the economic systems to employ natural resources efficiently, so as to increase economic and human wealth. This clearly implies that both the economic and ecological aspects of decisions ought to be considered. Bearing this in mind, this article considers economic and ecological performance together, by applying data envelopment analysis and the Malmquist productivity index to investigate the efficiency of the 20 Italian regions from 2004 to 2011. The results reveal that the northern regions have been more efficient than the southern ones, highlighting the strong geographical differences between the two. Furthermore, this article uses the grey system theory to forecast regional, economic and environmental efficiency. The results of the forecasting analysis show that the north–south duality remains strong and will possibly increase since the regions in the south get worse in term of environmental and economic efficiency.     

A model for forecasting the substitution of one technology for another

Most technological changes can be described as a substitution of one material, process or product for another. Each such substitution, if successful, normally tends to follow an S-shaped (or “logistic”) curve: that is, it starts slowly as initial problems and resistances have to be overcome; then it proceeds more rapidly as the competition between the new and the old technology grows keener and the new technology gains an advantage; and finally, as the market for the new technology approaches saturation, the pace of substitution slows down. Sometimes, when the process is completed, the old technology continues to retain some specialized portion of the total market (i.e., a sub-market) for which it is particularly well adapted. In forecasting the course and speed of the substitution process especially when it has already begun and partially taken place, the simplest approach is to project a function having the appropriate S-shaped curve, using historical data to determine the free parameters of the function. While useful, especially where data are not available for a more sophisticated study, the simple curve-fitting techniques fail to take into account several important factors that affect economic and management decisions on the part of producers and intermediate users (as well as “final” consumers) and thereby influence the course which the substitution process is likely to take. To overcome this limitation, a simulation model has been developed at IR&T which allows some of these factors to be evaluated and incorporated explicitly and quantitatively. The model is described and its application is illustrated in the case of the substitution of plastic for glass in bottles. It is most applicable where the competing technologies are rather precisely defined, where a good deal of current technical and economic data are available, and where an in-depth analysis is desired. Because this particular forecast was made before the sudden precipitous increase in petroleum prices, which upsets the price relationships assumed in the forecast, there is discussion of the vulnerability of forecasts to political and other contra-economic developments.     

中国区域经济发展的经济学分析

1.生产力层次推移理论 生产力层次推移理论是国际上的一种区域经济理论,即无论在世界范围内还是一国范围内,客观上存在着经济技术上的不同层次。     

Social technology and economic development

The large gap between the best available technology and technology in use, especially in the less developed world, is primarily due to social and cultural factors that can only be changed by means of deliberately applied social technologies. Thus, conventional strategies for global population stabilization, economic development, and environmental improvement often put the cart before the horse.     

Resource integration of regional economic development in northwest China

Northwestern area is the most arid and underdeveloped area in China. Lots of researches have been doneto find the approaches to alleviate poverty. But there are some problems, for example, how to invest, how to use capital,and why the utilization rate is ambiguous. Water, capital and human resources are analyzed in this paper to be comparedwith their Utilization rates. As a result, according to the dependences of economic growth on those resources, a newapproach has been selected to organize the integration ways among these resources for economic development innorthwestern China. The efficient ways to develop northwestern China are： firstly, use the wanting resources mosteffectively to make an efficient integration model of multiple resources. For example, enhance the utilization rate of waterto raise the value of other resources. Secondly, invest more in basic factors for economic development to upgrade thecompetitiveness in the western China. For example, invest more in primary education and sustainable development ofbasic natural resources in order to have more power for sustainable development.     

A model for forecasting wheat production

A model for forecasting production of wheat considering the effects of irrigation, fertilizer application, high yielding varieties, rainfall, labour and farm machinery is derived. Applicabilitty of this model is tested for Indian conditions and is found satisfactory. Strength and limitations of this model can be applied successfully to other national conditions also. This model has been applied to the prediction of wheat production using two growth relations.     

The choice of technology in economic development

The impact of capital accumulation on job creation is an important and interesting issue in economic development. This model provides a general-equilibrium framework for studying technology choice with unemployment in a developing economy based on micro-foundations. Unemployment in the urban sector results from the existence of efficiency wages. Manufacturing firms engage in oligopolistic competition and choose technologies to maximise profits. A more advanced technology uses more capital and less labour. In the steady state, an increase in the amount of capital induces firms to choose more advanced technologies and the wage rate increases. While a higher capital stock always induces firms to choose more advanced technologies, urban unemployment rate may decrease and agricultural sector employment may increase.     

A fuzzy multiple criteria comparison of technology forecasting methods for predicting the new materials development

New materials have been recognized as key drivers for corporate profitability and growth in today's fast changing environments. To predict correctly the development of the new materials becomes a critical issue. However, little has been done in discussing the selection of technology forecasting methods for the new materials development. Accordingly, this study adopted the fuzzy AHP method to obtain professional's opinions on this issue. The efforts result in seven evaluation criteria with one, the “data validity” having the highest weight, followed by “method adaptability” and “technology predictability”. Delphi method and case study method are the two most applicable technology forecasting methods for predicting the new materials development.     

A model for economic analysis

The production process model is proposed as a way to guide economic evaluation of health care projects, programs, technology, or research. The model is illustrated with data from the development of a home care computer intervention.     

Multigeneration diffusion model for economic assessment of new technology

In the era of 21st century, development of emerging information technology is the essence of the advancement. This kind of new technology, however, often requires a great deal of amount of initial investment for both procedures of R&D and commercialization. As cost invested in developing the specified technology is increasing, investors are paying more attention to cost to benefit analysis (CBA). One of the basic elements of CBA for new technological development is the diffusion pattern of demand of such technology. Typically, it would be hard to presume the diffusion pattern of demand when the new product or the technology is under development. In this case, a simulation study is necessary. Many studies of technology evaluation have adopted a single generation model to simulate the diffusion pattern of demand. This approach, however, considers the diffusion of the new technology itself, not taking into account newer generation, which can replace the one just invented. In the real market situation, one must consider the competition and substitution phenomena between old and new technologies. In this paper, we show how multigeneration technology diffusion model can be applied for more accurate CBA for information technology. Additionally, Monte Carlo simulation is performed to find influential factors on the CBA of a cybernetic building system (CBS).     

A generalized model for forecasting technological substitution

This paper presents a generalized mathematical model for forecasting technological substitution under a wide variety of circumstances. Some of the existing models are shown as special cases of the generalized model. Methods are also suggested for improving the reliability of the model by taking corrective measures on the available data and following a step-wise forecasting procedure.     

A generalized logistic model for technological forecasting

Resulting from a predominantly forward-looking behavior of the producers, a generalized logistic model is developed and tested here as an approximation of engineering-design process.     

区域经济子系统可持续发展预警研究

采用人工神经网络方法进行经济子系统可持续发展的预测与预警。建立人工神经网络BP结构模型，进行单指标的预测；确立区域可持续发展预警系统的预警过程，绘出预警曲线，并用指示灯表示发展状态。     

A forecasting model for food and other expenditures

An econometric model consisting of an inverse demand system and a set of lagged supply response relationships; for major categories of US personal consumption expenditures is formulated. The model is capable of sequentially forecasting per capita personal consumption expenditures and their expenditure shares in the long run.     

Interdisciplinary policy analysis in economic forecasting

Economic policy formulation suffers from many ills, not the least of which is a basic inadequacy in the methods of long-range economic forecasting. This article discusses the need for a longer time perspective in economic policy and the shortcomings of current methods in regard to philosophical assumptions, theoretical limitations, economic modeling problems, and institutional issues. Interdisciplinary policy modeling is suggested as a partial solution to these shortcomings, and two examples are offered—one in regional policy simulation and other in world food-supply modeling.     

Threshold effect of international technology spillovers on China's regional economic growth

ABSTRACT

This study uses China's provincial panel data for 2003–2016 to estimate the turning point of technology spillovers promoting economic growth in the coastal and inland areas. The results show that the turning point in coastal areas is significantly higher than that in inland areas. However, improved absorptive capacity as a result of regional disparity increases the threshold of technology spillovers from promotion to suppression in inland areas but decreases it in coastal areas. Then, this study further tests the threshold characteristics of absorptive capacity factors influencing international technology spillovers using a double-threshold regression model and estimates the threshold values of both forward and reverse spillovers from the viewpoint of knowledge context, economic development, opening degree and human resources infrastructure. In conclusion, the effect of absorptive capacity factors on international spillovers is nonlinear, that is, when absorptive capacity factors are between the two threshold values, technology spillovers are maximised.     

国家级经济技术开发区的可持续发展

1984年以来,我国已累计批准设立国家级经济技术开发区和享受国家级经济技术开发区政策的其他国家级工业园区(以下简称"国家级开发区")54个.在过去的二十多年里,国家级开发区从创建到稳步发展,取得了显著成果,并对所在地区的经济发展起到了示范和促进作用.