Accumulation pattern of the Brazilian economy in the 1990s and 2000s

This paper investigates the dynamic relationships among income distribution, debt ratio and capital accumulation in the Brazilian economy in the 1990s and 2000s. One explanation for the relatively slow growth of the Brazilian economy is the relatively low rate of investment. The paper presents an econometric model, based on Nishi, to investigate the causes of instability in investment in the period. It concludes that the Brazilian economy since the economic opening presents a debt-burdened pattern of capital accumulation.     

Forms of Explanation; Rethinking the Questions in Social Theory

The aim of this study is to investigate whether the so-called crowding in effects of complementarity or the crowding out effects of substitution occurred between public investment and private investment in Brazil from 1982 to 2013. This will be carried out through a theoretical debate on the investment general dynamics and an econometric analysis of vector error correction (VEC) model for the Brazilian case. The trajectory of the Brazilian economy and the empirical results show the presence of crowding in between public and private investments in the period, in accordance with the Post-Keynesian approaches. The crowding in is justified by the effects on demand via the Keynesian multiplier and via the expansion of the domestic market (particularly provided by infrastructure) and by the effects on the supply of private capital through the reduction of production costs, the increase in productivity, and through structural changes facilitated by public policy. Complementarity with regard to both the investments of the public administration and of federal government-owned/controlled enterprises is confirmed. Furthermore, a significant causal relationship is observed between public investment and the output of industrial manufacturing, which, from the structuralist perspective, is a sector that is considered a driving force of the economy. The special contributions of this paper are its time series for public investment and the variety of models that show crowding in between public and private investment.     

Why does the investment rate not increase? Capital accumulation and stabilization policy in the 1990s and 2000s in Brazil

The stabilization of inflation was conquered in the mid-1990s, but since then the Brazilian economy has not shown a stable growth trend. This article discusses how the maintenance of a high interest rate in Brazil has affected growth through its impact on investment decision. In a macroeconomic environment with a relatively high degree of uncertainty, decisions to accumulate capital rely heavily on retained earnings and are negatively affected by the persistent high level of interest rates. Our econometric exercise reveals that the interest rate is the most important variable to explain the investment rate, and that financialization negatively impacts physical capital accumulation.     

Government size,composition of public spending and economic growth in Brazil

The performance of the fiscal policy is largely affected by the relationship between government size, composition of public spending and economic growth. We use a theoretical framework to find optimal relations among these variables and confront them with a panel data for the Brazilian states. Private capital and government spending are substitute inputs in production as the Brazilian states require provision of public spending to fill gaps in the underdeveloped private sector. Public investment and current government expenditures are combined in fixed ratios in the overall government spending due to strong rigidity of the public budget. The optimal share of public investment is considerably lower than current expenditures, as occurs in developing countries characterized by low economic dynamism. Finally, the average tax burden from the data is below the estimated optimal level, meaning that there is space for increasing tax rate without harming economic growth for some Brazilian states.     

中国式经济增长:从投资与强制性技术变迁角度的一种解释

中国经济增长的核心是技术引进方式,研究表明,中国经济的长期增长速度与投资增长速度和技术输出国经济增长速度成正比。     

Cycles and Growth: A Source of Demand-Driven Endogenous Growth

This paper moves in a theoretical context in which the level of economic activity is dependent on aggregate demand in both the long and the short period. It shows that given two simple hypotheses, the economy will exhibit a tendency to grow independently of any increase in the average level of ongoing investment (or any other type of ‘autonomous’ demand) over time. The two hypotheses are (a) that investment oscillates over time and (b) that the community's marginal propensity to consume is lower when income contracts in slumps than when it increases in booms. This points to a source of growth that is as endogenous to the system, as trade cycles are.     

高投资、宏观成本与经济增长的持续性

过去20多年,中国高投资—高增长的发展模式以宏观成本积累为代价。增长是中国今后相当长时期的主题,但是以高成本为代价的高投资—高增长发展模式的持续性如何?本文从理论上说明了中国高投资的政府激励机制及宏观成本边界和高成本增长的临界点;进而指出,在开放经济中,资本流动、外部需求和供给冲击构成高成本投资模式的现实约束,政府必须权衡粗放式高增长的宏观收益和成本,制定相应的政策来约束低效率的投资行为,实现全社会的福利优化。     

内地与澳门、粤澳经贸合作对澳门经济增长影响的实证研究——基于中国澳门回归十年以来的数据

基于区域经济一体化理论,利用中国澳门回归十年以来的经济数据,通过计量模型分析可知：内地在澳门的旅游、金融及投资方面对澳门经济增长起着举足轻重的作用。其中,广东省与澳门进出口贸易的线性相关性更加显著。     

后危机时代中国经济增长的稳态路径研究——基于四万亿投资冲击下的偏离与均衡分析

四万亿投资虽已接近收官,但投资对经济的影响远没有结束,后危机时期经济调整任务艰巨而且复杂。基于Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans模型探究四万亿投资对经济稳态路径的调整作用后发现,四万亿投资冲击在经济危机中起到了较好的熨平周期的作用,在投资冲击下经济均衡恢复的半衰期为20.6年;四万亿投资的筹资方式、投资方向将对经济增长的均衡路径形成不同影响,更多吸纳民间资本和科学的投资方向能提高经济的均衡福利水平。     

Putting Austerity to Bed: Technical Progress,Aggregate Demand and the Supermultiplier

ABSTRACT

The paper investigates the determinants of private investment and economic growth from a theoretical perspective. We start with a critical analysis of the crowding-out effect and we present a new version of the Sraffian Supermultiplier: a model that accounts for both the multiplier and accelerator effects. We focus on different types of fiscal policies: generic ones and ‘mission-oriented’ ones that set a new direction for the economy. We show that mission-oriented policies have the potential to generate the largest positive effect on investments and output growth as well as on innovation processes and labour productivity growth.     

Growth,Distribution, and External Constraints: A Post-Kaleckian Model Applied to Brazil

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this research is to analyze whether the Brazilian economy behaved under a wage-led or profit-led regime between 1960 and 2011, considering a Post-Kaleckian model in a context of external constraints. The time span is limited by data availability (i.e., 2011). To answer the question of whether the Brazilian economy works under a wage-led or profit-led regime, we propose a simple Post-Kaleckian model. The model suggests that a profit-led regime is more probable for Brazil. Moreover, a wage-led regime occurs when a balance of payments constrained growth model is taken into consideration. Likewise, the real exchange rate has a positive impact on economic growth through the export channel. This result is a novelty in the recent literature about the relationship between real exchange rate and economic growth within a Post-Kaleckian model. The Brazilian economy was chosen as it is one of the biggest economies in Latin America.     

国际贸易和国际直接投资一体化的理论基础探析

传统的新古典国际贸易理论否定国际直接投资的存在空间,但经济全球化的迅速发展现实则表明国际贸易和国际直接投资是相互促进发展的。本文回顾了国际贸易和国际直接投资理论融合的历史和现状,着重分析了内在规模经济（内在比较优势）的理论渊源,探讨了贸易投资一体化的理论基础是基于内在规模经济的国际分工。     

中国投资函数的实证分析

投资函数模型,是对投资行为的描述,也是对影响投资规模的因素的分析。对投资函数的研究,实质是对投资规模制约方程的研究,也就是研究如何确定适度的投资规模。而投资规模的大小、投资规模是否适度,又直接决定了投资规模效益的高低。投资与经济增长之间相互依存、相互制约的关系也表明,投资规模是否合理、适度,是影响经济稳定运行的一个重要因素。因此,研究影响投资规模的诸因素,确定合理、适度的投资规模具有重大的理论意义和实践意义。本文以我国改革开放以来的数据为样本,建立了固定资产投资总额模型、资金来源多样化条件下的固定资产投资函数模型和投资主体多元化条件下的固定资产投资函数模型,对改革开放以来制约我国投资规模的因素作了实证分析。     

The Potential Impact of Sino-Korean Bilateral Trade on Economic Growth and the Environment: A CGE Model Analysis

A consensus is still to be reached regarding the relationship between trade, growth, and the environment in either the existing theoretical models or previous empirical analyses. By using a Sino-Korean case study, we expect this work to contribute to the theoretical and empirical knowledge of the relationship between trade, growth and the environment. In this paper, four types of simulation are executed by applying a Sino-Korea CGE model. The results reveal that an increasing volume of bilateral trade boosts the real GDP at a decreasing rate. Different degrees in the volume of increase of bilateral trade produce welfare gains for Chinese households, i.e. more household spending. Welfare increases at a decreasing rate when the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently, while in Korea there are welfare losses (less household consumption) when the bilateral trade target becomes increasingly stringent. Moreover, the investment gains in the economy tend to rise more sharply as the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently in China. The investment tends to decrease at a proportional rate when the target bilateral trade volume becomes more stringent and the changes in the gross investment become more significant in Korea. In addition, the aggregate production shows a tendency to increase at a proportional rate with a more stringent target bilateral trade volume and when there are considerable changes in gross production. Furthermore, the impact of most production sectors can benefit China, but have a negative impact on Korea. Meantime, the simulations highlight that import growth increases carbon emissions at a decreasing rate, and export growth increases carbon emissions. According to our policy findings, policy makers should be advised to consider the third trade policy (Scenario c), which maintains a reasonable economic growth but at the expense of investment and welfare.     

Functional distribution of income,aggregate demand,and economic growth in the Chinese economy, 1978–2007

This paper seeks to analyse the relationship between the functional distribution of income, aggregate demand and growth in the Chinese reform economy. For this purpose, the Bhaduri-Marglin Model is used to indicate the theoretical possibility of both profit-led and wage-led growth regimes. Previously, the principal literature on the evolution of factor shares in China was reviewed. The statistical series for the period 1978–2007 are reconstructed to carry out our analysis of the relations between capital share and investment, on one hand, and labour share and consumption, on the other. Supported by empirical analysis and the model estimations, it is argued that Chinese growth has been profit-driven. Finally, the implications are presented concerning Chinese economic prospects.     

安徽农业投资问题实证分析

农业投资是促进农业经济增长的重要因素，本文以安徽为例，从农业投资的动态分析入手，建立计量经济模型，运用C-D生产函数分别分析了农业总投资及不同农业投资主体的农业投入对农业经济增长的贡献，指出农业的投资，尤其是农户对农业投资，是促进农业经济增长的重要因素，并就此提出增加农业投资促进农业经济增长的几点对策建议。     

外商直接投资与安徽经济增长关系的实证分析

通过运用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验对外商直接投资与安徽经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:外商直接投资流入对促进安徽经济增长有促进作用,但安徽经济增长对吸引外商直接投资的作用是不显著的.安徽应积极采取相应措施,改善投资环境,吸引更多的外商直接投资.     

投资--中国经济增长的主动力

中国经济一直保持快速的增长势头。但通过对统计资料的分析可以看出,中国经济是明显的投资拉动型的发展模式,是一种靠要素的大量投入的“外延式”增长方式。本文分析了中国高投资的原因以及由此产生的弊端,指出了改革经济增长方式的迫切性。     

Public investment,national debt,and economic growth: The role of debt finance under dynamic inefficiency

Public investment is a central issue in the dynamic analyses of fiscal policy and economic growth. Debt financing for public investment and its effects have recently received great attention because interest rates have been low, almost invariably remaining below economic growth rates. This paper presents examination of the effects of debt-financed public investment subject to a simple fiscal rule in an overlapping generations model with public capital. This topic includes capital budgeting and the debt–deficit criterion of the Maastricht treaty. We show herein that debt financing for public investment enhances economic growth if an economy is dynamically inefficient and if public capital has a sufficiently large productivity effect. Moreover, it reduces economic growth rates in a dynamically efficient economy. Debt and growth can have a monotonic or non-monotonic relation, depending on the steady-state interest rate, growth rate, and productivity effect of public investment. The findings indicate that debt–growth relations match with controversial empirical evidence. Furthermore, existing generations choose perfect debt finance if dynamic inefficiency exists. In contrast, a balanced budget is preferred in a dynamically efficient economy with low productivity effects of public capital. However, an economy with high productivity effects of public capital might cho ose debt financing. This paper contributes to the elucidation of currently emphasized issues of public investment.     

The optimal growth of the firm in a growing environment

The paper presents a growth model based on three essential assumptions: perfect knowledge of the future, descreasing returns on investment in a stagnant economy, appearance of new investment possibilities with the growth of the economy. Two cases are considered: the self-financing growth and the borrowing situation in the context of two management policies, the maximization of the discounted flow of dividends and the maximization of the growth rate.