Special issue on economic policy in Portugal: innovation,competitiveness, and internationalisation. Editors’ introduction

Portuguese Economic Journal -     

Value,sign, and social structure: the ‘game’ metaphor and modern social science

This exploratory paper, part of continued work on the history of game theory, seeks to illustrate certain links between von Neumann's theory of games and contemporaneous ideas in other fields. In particular, we claim that the emergence of the analytical metaphor of the ‘game’ in economics can be viewed as part of a general reconceptualization of theory in a range of disciplines. That methodological reconstitution may be described as the emergence of a Structuralist view, an approach to theorizing which treated its object – be that a text, a kinship arrangement, or an economy – as a self-contained system, with its own internal logic, subject to its own ‘laws’. In particular, individual texts, or observed social and economic arrangements, are now viewed as variations on an underlying logical theme, on a structural invariant. The latter is to be uncovered, in the case of linguistics, through the analysis of phonemes; in kinship analysis, through the rules governing the exchange of women because of the incest taboo; in von Neumann and Morgensterns game theory, through the possibilities for equilibrium coalition formation, based on the stable set. There thus emerged a tendency, across the intellectual spectrum, towards seeing things in combinatorialterms. Theoretical coherence was to be found in examining how objects ‘held together’ rather than analysing where they ‘came from’: nineteenth-century concerns with history, evolution and individual psychology give way to a distinctly modern emphasis on synchronic, formal structure, on analogical reasoning. Atomism gave way to holism, and formal elegance superceded immediate empirical content. Recourse to the metaphor of the ‘game’ was constitutive of this shift, which we examine by referring to Saussures General Course in Linguistics, to Formalism in mathematics and literary analysis, to Lévi-Strauss's analysis of kinship and myth, and to von Neumann and Morgenstern's Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour.     

Polanyi’s ‘substantive approach’ to the economy in action? Conceptualising social enterprise as a public health ‘intervention’

For several decades now, critical public health researchers have highlighted the deleterious effects that pursuing neoliberal policies can have on the ‘causes of the causes’ of poor health and upon growing health inequalities. This paper argues that the conceptual tools of Karl Polanyi can help lend particular insight into this issue. The specific example that this paper focuses upon is the ‘social enterprise’: a form of organisation that combines both social and business objectives. The paper explores, conceptually, whether social enterprises may have the potential to act as one component of a neo-Polanyian countermovement: helping to re-embed the economy back into society, and offering greater recognition for a more comprehensive and socially imbued concept of health. Importantly, this potential is critically examined in the context of neoliberal hegemony, where challenges to the status quo have regularly been met with assimilation, co-option and/or repression.     

Assimilation and changes in cohort quality revisited: what happened to immigrant earnings in the 1980s?

"This article uses the 1970, 1980, and 1990 Public Use Samples of the U.S. census to document what happened to immigrant earnings in the 1980s and to determine if pre-1980 immigrant flows reached earnings parity with natives. The relative entry wage of successive immigrant cohorts declined by 9% in the 1970s and by an additional 6% in the 1980s. Although the relative wage of immigrants grows by 10% during the first 2 decades after arrival, recent immigrants will earn 15%-20% less than natives throughout much of their working lives."     

Special issue on forecasting,use of survey data on expectations,and panel data applications: editors’ introduction

This study reinvestigates the relationship between unemployment and crime, but is the first to focus explicitly on the effects of long-term unemployment on crime. A unique finding is that long-term unemployment shows a strong association with violent crime, an effect which is greater than that of total unemployment on property crime in this and most previous studies. Long-term unemployment thus identifies a marginal group for committing crime (particularly violent crime) better than total unemployment, with the duration of unemployment plausibly increasing the strain that fosters violent behaviour.     

A hard landing for the ‘New Economy’? Information technology and the United States national system of innovation

This paper discusses the probability of a hard landing for the US economy. It argues that information and communication technology (ICT) has not changed the fundamental nature of the business-cycle and the instability of investment behaviour. It analyses some of the strengths of ICT in the United States, but suggests a resemblance between ICT and previous waves of diffusion of new technologies, notably the boom of the 1920s.     

Drought and social conflict in rural Zimbabwe: Does the burden fall on women and girls?

Climate change–induced extreme weather events such as drought have occurred with increasing frequency and intensity in Zimbabwe over the past 30 years bringing about pressure on communally owned water resources. Using the Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee 2020 survey of rural households in Zimbabwe, this study assesses the impact of drought shock on the occurrence of water point violence. The impact of self-reported drought shock on the likelihood of occurrence of social conflict in the form of water point violence is subject to confounding due to selection bias. Using the doubly robust inverse probability weighted regression adjustment to account for confounding, we investigate gender dimensions of the impact of drought on inducing water point violence in rural Zimbabwe. The study offers three major findings. First, drought shock is associated with increased household propensity to experience water point violence. Second, the severity of the drought shock impact increases the probability of the household experiencing water point violence. Third, drought shock–induced water point violence is only statistically valid for households where the water-fetcher is a woman or girl. The results suggest that the impact of drought shocks on water point violence is gendered and disadvantages women and girls more than men and boys.     

The life cycle of scholars and papers in economics – the ‘citation death tax’

The information content of academic citations is a subject to debate. This article views premature death as a tragic ‘natural experiment’, outlining a methodology identifying the ‘citation death tax’ – the impact of the death of productive economists on the patterns of their citations. We rely on a sample of 428 papers written by 16 well-known economists who died well before retirement, during the period 1975 to 1997. The news is mixed: for half of the sample, we identify a large and significant ‘citation death tax’ for the average paper written by these scholars. For these authors, the estimated average missing citations per paper attributed to premature death ranges from 40% to 140% (the overall average is about 90%), and the annual costs of lost citations per paper are in the range 3–14%. Hence, a paper written 10 years before the author's death avoids a citation cost that varies between 30% and 140%. For the other half of the sample, there is no citation death tax; and for two Nobel Prize-calibre scholars in this second group, Black and Tversky, citations took off over time, reflecting the growing recognitions of their seminal works.     

Popular Geopolitics,Audiences and Identities: Reading the ‘War on Terror’ in the Philippines

Audience research has traditionally been neglected within the subfield of popular geopolitics. However in recent years, geographers are increasingly focusing on the making of geopolitical meanings by audiences as they consume popular culture and related texts. Drawing on recent assemblage thinking in geopolitics, this paper argues that audiences form part of the animators of a network that links the human body with places, environments, objects and discourses related to geopolitics. By investigating Filipinos’ critical readings of and engagements with the ‘war on terror’ in Mindanao as represented through the national newspaper, the Philippines Daily Inquirer, the agency and power of audiences in the creative enactments of geopolitics and geography are illuminated. As such, understanding the complex interactions between popular media and its audiences can prove useful in casting insights into the everyday, geopolitical ‘playing out’ of issues of terrorism, violence and peace in the Philippines context and beyond.     

Building ‘mass’ and ‘momentum’ – a latecomer country’s passage to large technological systems – the case of China

This paper focuses on how a latecomer country can bring a large (infrastructural) technological system (LTS) to a market already dominated by the entrenched systems of global technology leaders. We construct a conceptual framework, building on Hughes LTS theory (1983) and insights from social studies of technology into the specificities of infrastructural sociotechnical systems to analyse the development of China’s 3rd Generation mobile telephony system. We explore the complex dynamics surrounding the distributed governance of innovation, highlighting changes in key system builders. We note the role of the state in addressing critical problems (‘reverse salients’), both in terms of aligning players through legitimating and sense-making and also, building the necessary mass and momentum. This includes a more radical reconfiguring of the field to secure the substantial commitments needed to materialise and embed a new LTS infrastructure.