Does self-employment reduce unemployment?

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between self-employment and unemployment rates. On the one hand, high unemployment rates may lead to start-up activity of self-employed individuals (the “refugee” effect). On the other hand, higher rates of self-employment may indicate increased entrepreneurial activity reducing unemployment in subsequent periods (the “entrepreneurial” effect). This paper introduces a new two-equation vector autoregression model capable of reconciling these ambiguities and estimates it for data from 23 OECD countries between 1974 and 2002. The empirical results confirm the existence of two distinct relationships between unemployment and self-employment: the “refugee” and “entrepreneurial” effects. We also find that the “entrepreneurial” effects are considerably stronger than the “refugee” effects.     

Linking multi-channel customer behavior with shopping motives: An empirical investigation of a German retailer

Operating multiple channels, in store as well as non-store, allows a retailer to cater to the different shopping motives of its customers. This research into the buying behavior of 525 customers of a multi-channel retailer that operates five channels in Germany shows that most customers use only one channel within a buying process, selecting the channel that best satisfies their shopping motives in each situation. Based on exploratory qualitative and quantitative research, this study identifies five shopping motives: “recreational orientation”, “convenience orientation”, “independence orientation”, “delivery-related risk aversion” and “product- and payment-related risk aversion”. In the majority of the store channels examined in this study (chain stores and bakeries), single-channel users primarily look to satisfy emotional and social needs. Single-channel users of non-store channels (catalogue and online-shop) look for convenience and strive for independence. Multi-channel users, who obtain their information from the online-shop and then make their purchase in the chain store, are combining the independence of online-shop information with the reduction of risks associated with buying products in the chain store. These findings can be used to develop recommendations for managing the individual channels.     

On the efficiency of monetary policy rules with flexible prices and rational expectations

The classic Sargent–Wallace–Lucas (SWL) rational expectations-flexible price model is usually interpreted as implying “policy ineffectiveness”: systematic monetary rules cannot affect the distribution of real output. A contrary but not widely-appreciated result of Dotsey and King suggests that there exist “prospective feedback” rules (future money depending systematically on current but as yet unobserved information) which improve output distribution by means of improving agents’ ability to perceive relative prices.We show the Dotsey–King proposition in fact to be a colossal understatement: prospective feedback rules applied vigorously enough (and even “contemporaneous feedback” rules based on current interest rates, provided at least one prospective feedback is active) can in the limit drive price-perception errors to zero. This is not to say such a policy would be desirable. Feedback parameter combinations that reduce current price level misperception tend to produce high forecast error variances with respect to future prices, with attendant loss in capital market efficiency. Whatever the desirable frontier among these different social cost-producing variables, feedback parameters will in general be needed in order to get on the frontier as well as to move along it. Monetary policy clearly produces social gain even in a version of this model which contains no elements of price “friction,” inefficient use of available information, or asymmetry in information as between the government and the public.     

Consumer Choices Under Small Probabilities: Overweighting or Underweighting?

This article provides a theoretical account and identifies boundary conditions for the common beliefs about the “overweighting of small probabilities”. Based on four studies, our results suggest that the weighting of probabilities is context-dependent. When the contrast in value is reduced or not presented in a decision problem, small probabilities are less likely to be overweighted. In addition, as the associated payoffs increase, the weights on small probabilities tend to diminish or even to be “underweighted”. However, there is an “interpersonal difference” in the weighting of probabilities which reflects the particular circumstances of individuals, including their wealth status. Some implications of small probabilities for marketing practices are also investigated and discussed.     

The dynamics of exchange rate regimes: Fixes, floats, and flips

The impermanence of fixed exchange rates has become a stylized fact in international finance. The combination of the “mirage” view that pegs do not really peg with the “fear of floating” view that floats do not really float generates the conclusion that exchange rate regimes are, in practice, unimportant for the behavior of the exchange rate. This is consistent with evidence on the irrelevance of exchange rate regimes for general macroeconomic performance. Recent studies, however, show that the exchange rate regime matters. This can be understood by considering the dynamics of exchange rate regimes. We demonstrate that the “mirage” view is somewhat misleading and incomplete. Pegs frequently break, but many do last. Also, there is a high degree of flipping, that is, the re-formation of pegs that have broken. Thus, a fixed exchange rate today is a good predictor that one will exist in the future. We also investigate the quantitative effect of fixed exchange rates. While the “fear of floating” view suggests little actual difference in fixed and floating rates with respect to exchange rate volatility, we show that fixed exchange rates exhibit considerably greater bilateral exchange rate stability than flexible rates, both today and in the future.     

Increasing returns: Competing for customers in the global market

This paper discusses emerging, increasing returns notions, comparing it to the diminishing returns model of the industrial era, with the consequent implications for the global manager. Increasing returns, it is argued, comes from a different set of management premises: capitalising on the time value of individual customers in new “market spaces”, rather than from making and moving more “things” in traditional product/market categories; leveraging intangibles, abundant and infinite, which increasingly deliver the value to customers; and sharing markets, resources and technologies with others in new “competitive spaces”, rather than adopting proprietary behaviour, in order to get critical market mass and lock in. These premises, if consciously managed and translated into strategy, the paper argues, lead to an accumulating advantage and disproportionate returns for corporations.     

Determinants of International Activities: Are SMEs Different?

In this paper we econometrically investigate the factors determining the choice of a specific internationalisation strategy. We distinguish four strategies, ranging from “serving foreign markets through exports only” up to “exporting and locating abroad several business functions such as distribution, production and R & D”. These strategies are evaluated against the reference category “domestic sales only” (multinomial logit model). The analysis, to a large extent, confirms Dunning’s well-known OLI paradigm. O-advantages turn out to be the main drivers of internationalisation, irrespective of firm size and internationalisation strategy. However, the knowledge-base on which O-advantages of smaller firms rests is more narrow than that of large companies. Whereas the former rely, in relative terms, primarily on capabilities related to incremental innovations, the latter draw to a higher extent on assets enabling them to be competitive in terms of far-reaching innovations. L-advantages (wages, regulatory framework, etc.) primarily are relevant in case of small firms; but even for this size class, O-advantages are dominant.     

Tractable Morality

This article discusses five propositions about managerial moral tractability -- that is, a morality that is amenable to the complexity of managers’ continual pressure to decide and act -- in their customer relations. The propositions come from the comparison of three case studies of different types of managers. To analyze the morality of managers, discursive practices of managers are studied. At the end of the article also some consideration is given to “information strategies” of managers, in relation to their tractable morality.Gjalt de Graaf received his Ph.D. at the Rotterdam School of Management of the Erasmus University Rotterdam. He worked for two years as an assistant professor ‘‘strategic management” at the Faculty of Economics and Business Studies of the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. Currently he works as a post-doc “Integrity of Governance” at the Faculty of Social Sciences of the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.     

Of bears, bumble-bees, and spiders: the role of expatriates in controlling foreign subsidiaries

This article investigates the role of expatriate managers in multinational companies. We discuss three key organizational functions of expatriation: position filling, management development, and organization development. In the last function, organization development, international transfers are used as an informal coordination and control strategy through socialization and the building of informal communication networks. The article explores this role of international transfers in greater detail, but also discusses a more formal way in which expatriates can control subsidiaries. The following metaphors for these different control functions of expatriation are introduced: “bear” (formal direct control), “bumble-bee” (socialization), and “spider” (informal communication). A large-scale mail survey offers empirical evidence for the bear, bumble-bee and spider roles and shows under which circumstances they are most effective. Being aware of the different control functions of expatriation and the circumstances under which they are most effective can help managers to use expatriate assignments as a more strategic tool.     

Doha Development Round Perspectives

The Doha round got back on track in the summer of 2004. Where does it stand today? Has market access policy gained predominance over market regulation policy? Is the promotion of economic and social development becoming the “mainstream” of negotiations? What role does trade facilitation in developing countries play in this context? Is multilateral liberalisation compatible with the regional and bilateral opening of markets? Is further institutional reform of the WTO beyond the Doha agenda necessary? If so, what form could this take?*This article is based on a contribution made by the author to the International Policy Dialogue “Doha Development Round: Status and Prospects for Success” organised by the InWEnt gGmbH’s Development Policy Forum (Entwicklungspolitisches Forum, EF) in Berlin on 7/8 June 2005.     

Do social product features have value to consumers?

The present paper utilizes a random utility theoretic experimental design to provide estimates of the relative value that selected consumers place on the social features of products. Experiments were conducted in Hong Kong and Australia using both university students and supporters of the human rights organization Amnesty International. The paper focuses on two classes of social features, “labor practices” and “animal rights and the environment”. The results show that the social features of products can, on average, affect an individuals' likelihood of purchasing a product. Also, this paper finds distinctive segments of ethically orientated consumers.     

A note on closet-indexing

Actively managed equity mutual funds with returns that are highly correlated with popular stock market indices like the S&P 500 often are accused of “closet-indexing”. We ask whether a trading strategy that shorts these funds and buys “true” index funds makes money for investors. Using a sample of high-R² growth-and-income funds from the CRSP survivor bias free mutual fund file, we document that the Sharpe ratio of this trading strategy and the market Sharpe ratio are statistically indistinguishable in the 1991–2000 sample period. The result is consistent with the view that widespread closet-indexing does not exist in the mutual fund industry.     

Human capital and financial equilibrium

This article investigates the effect of incorporating human capital—an expansion of the investment opportunity set—into the analysis of portfolio investment decisions. The “production function” of human capital displays decreasing returns to scale. The return on human capital is a product of two factors: a “market” return and return unique to each individual. Financial equilibrium results are derived and tested empirically using U.S. data and an international sample. The main findings are that demand for financial assets relates positively to human capital risk and negatively to financial capital risks.     

Varying monetary policy regimes: A vector autoregressive investigation

Recently, two stylized facts about the behavior of the U.S. economy have emerged: first, macroeconomic aggregates appear to be less volatile post-1984 than in the preceding 2 decades; second, monetary policy appears more responsive to inflationary pressures – and thereby more “stabilizing” – during the Volcker/Greenspan chairmanships relative to earlier regimes. Does a causal relationship exist between these two observations? In particular, has “better” policy by the Federal Reserve Board contributed significantly to the lessened volatility of the U.S. economy? This paper uses a structural vector autoregressive (VAR) specification to address these questions, examining the advantages and limitations of such an approach. In contrast with much of the existing research on these topics, I find that most of the quantitatively significant changes in volatility are attributed to breaks in the non-policy portion of the structural VAR, and not to the identified policy equation.     

Considerations on “Research on non-market actions: A commentary essay”

This commentary is in response to the commentary, “Research on Non-Market Actions: A Commentary Essay” [Wang, C-J. Research on Non-Market Actions: A Commentary Essay. J Bus Res (2008)] on the paper, “First come, first served: How market and non-market actions influence pioneer market share” [Usero B, Fernández Z, First come, first served: How market and non-market actions influence pioneer market share. J Bus Res (2008), doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2008.07.005]. The commentary responds directly to Wang's [Wang, C-J. Research on Non-Market Actions: A Commentary Essay. J Bus Res (2008)] comments and proposes further lines of research that integrate the competitive dynamic approach with studies of non-market actions.     

Customer satisfaction study via a latent segment model

The aim of this study is to apply a new conceptual model, and a new technique as an approach to the modelling of customers’ satisfaction, and to develop an overall satisfaction index (OSI). This study evaluates customers’ satisfaction of a certain public organization service, and argues that in order to estimate the global customers’ satisfaction measure we must appeal to methodologies recognizing that satisfaction must be understood as a latent variable, quantified through multiple indicators. Thus, it is natural that we consider the latent segment models (LSM) approach to proceed to the evaluation of customer's service satisfaction. As a result of these models estimation, we selected a three latent segment model, that is to say, the latent variable customer satisfaction has three classes: segment 1, with 50.4 percent of the customers, that represents “The Very Satisfied”, for those to whom everything is very well in the organization service; a segment 2, with 33.4 percent of the customers, representative of the “The Well Satisfied”, not totally satisfied with the quality of the organization, and a segment 3, with 16.2 percent of the customers, “Satisfaction Demanders”, thinking that organizational quality can be improved. Finally, we developed an overall satisfaction index which is important to show how the company as a whole is performing.     

Going public: The impact of insiders' holdings on the price of initial public offerings

Many entrepreneurs dream of seeing their company's securities trading in the public marketplace. Although going public has many benefits for a firm's founders and insiders, the process is often confusing and intimidating. One of the questions that investment bankers are asked frequently by insiders is, “What determines the price of a stock in the initial public offering?” This article presents empirical evidence that the stock price in an initial public offering (IPO) is directly related to the percentage of the firm's equity retained by the insiders. In other words, the offering price is relatively high when it appears that the insiders are not “bailing out” when the firm goes public.This research investigates equity ownership structure as a determinant of the pricing of IPOs. The hypothesis to be tested is: IPOs with higher (lower) insider holdings at the time of the offering are priced higher (lower) as a result of lower (higher) required rates of return. Support for the hypothesis is based on agency theory, which postulates that additional risk is created when there is a perceived separation of ownership and control.There are several implications of this research. First, a greater appreciation of the sophistication of the IPO market with regard to the actions of the insiders should be gained. Second, the reader's knowledge of the activity and relative pricing of IPOs during the 1978–1985 time period should be enhanced. Third, insiders should realize that actions regarding their relative equity holdings at the time of the offering have an impact on the price of the offering. Finally, the reader should recognize that even in “hot markets” the actions of insiders at the time of an initial public offering regarding the sale of equity are monitored by the market.     

Choosing and upgrading financial services dealers in the US and UK

This paper addresses a gap in the international literature aimed at understanding the impact of the marketing mix on choosing and upgrading business-to-business financial services dealers. This study involves two important financial services markets (foreign exchange and bonds) in two leading countries in financial services (the United States and the United Kingdom). It provides a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of marketing mix variables (“price”, “product”, and “promotion” in this case) in determining (a) choice of dealers and (b) how a utilized dealer may achieve the sought-after status of being among the top three dealers of a customer. The impact of the marketing mix variables on the choice of dealer is significantly greater in the US relative to the UK. However, a two-stage analysis shows no significant country differences in the impact of the marketing mix on how a dealer is upgraded to a top three status with a customer. Further, the effects of the individual marketing mix variables are more nearly equal in the determination of whether a utilized dealer is among the top three dealers relative to the choice stage. Finally, consistent with our hypothesis, the bond market is more price sensitive relative to foreign exchange and the foreign exchange market is more product sensitive than the bond market.     

Profiles in executive education: George Odiorne

This is the fourth in a series on executive education “gurus” of the 20th century. The first three installments, profiled by Harper W. Moulton, featured Harry Levinson (Jan–Feb '95), Ken Andrews (Sept–Oct '95), and Philip Sadler (Jul–Aug '96).     

The changing consumer in the UK

For the UK, the 1980's was Margaret Thatcher's decade; the 1990's may be the decade of Europe. Thatcher's policies and her philosophy still have an impact on social and economic life. An examination is made of demographic changes, economic development, changes in consumption, changes in social attitude and changes in marketing channels that are taking place.Wealth has become more evenly spread throughout society although the bottom is worse off. The UK consumer is becoming more cosmopolitan with increased preference being shown for food and drink from mainland Europe. Another shift is towards increased amounts of both time and money being spent on leisure and in the rapid adoption of new classes of consumer good. There is evidence of the “greening” of the economy but individuals only seem willing to take individual action to “green” their lifestyle for a financial incentive.