Consumer benefits and demand impacts of regular train timetables

This paper reports novel research into the benefits that rail travellers receive from more regular features of timetables over and above any benefits of improved frequency. A stated preference (SP) exercise amongst rail travellers was conducted to estimate these benefits and the generally plausible results have been used to enhance a rail demand model which in turn has been used to forecast the effect on demand of more regular timetables for a range of situations. Not surprisingly, the demand impacts are generally relatively small, although they would be welcome additional benefits in the evaluation of a regular timetable.     

Freight transportation demand elasticities: a geographic multimodal transportation network analysis

This paper presents direct and cross-elasticity estimates of the demands for three freight transportation modes: rail, road and inland waterways. They are computed for 10 different categories of goods with a detailed multimodal network model of Belgian freight transports. The model, which minimises the generalised cost of transportation tasks defined by O-D matrices, assigns traffic flows to the different modes, transport means and routes. Successive simulations with different relative costs permit the computation of specific arc-elasticities. In contrast with the usual methodologies, the present methodology is not based on a statistical analysis of disaggregate data on actual modal choices and transport tariffs. This is a particularly useful feature since such data are mostly not available for freight transports in Europe. Furthermore, it fully takes into account the detailed characteristics of the network, all available routes and combinations of modes, as well as the specific localisation of activities within the network. Its estimates are compared with previously published estimates, and, in particular, with Abdelwahab's results published (1998) in this journal.     

Attracting travellers to the high-speed train: a methodology for comparing potential demand between stations

The High-Speed Railways (HSR) which are currently operative in 12 countries throughout the world include a wide range of stations with a highly varied capacity to attract travellers. Although there are various reasons for these differences, we have focused on the ones that can be quantified for further comparison. The main purpose of this study was twofold. First of all, we sought to identify stations with a low capacity to attract travellers and to explain the reasons for their concentration in certain countries rather than others. Secondly, we looked for a simple, but widely acceptable, method with which to calculate the capacity to attract users to HSR stations. This would help to establish a better way of allocating financial resources for public investment. This approach enabled us to identify those stations that had little or no potential at all and which had been established for essentially political reasons in countries where the concept of territorial cohesion had been applied in an inappropriate way. This led us to a number of observations relating to the railway policies undertaken in the countries studied and to underline the need for greater international coordination in areas like Europe and for better justified HSR policies. The calculations presented in this article use data relating to the urban populations which live in the vicinity of the world’s HSR stations, the distance from each of these stations to the nearest urban centres and the level of the corresponding regional GDP. All of this information has been used to build a GIS to facilitate analysis and pave the way towards a general comparative approach in which stations would be classified according to their capacity to attract travellers. Such an approach could also be used in areas in which lines are currently under construction and/or where future projects – such as the TEN-T in Europe – have already been approved but not yet executed. Our approach will make it easier to obtain data to show the potential success of, and need for, a HSR connexion as a preliminary step within the decision making process. This constitutes a significant contribution to the debate about the need to assess political decisions concerning HSR investments. It also highlights the need to encourage improved intermodality around railway stations and particularly around those located in non-metropolitan areas.     

应用灰色-周期外延组合模型预测货运量

灰色-周期外延组合模型是在GM(1,1)基础上建立的残差周期外延模型,并提取优势周期以重新构造新的数据序列,再将不同周期同一时刻的值叠加.该模型克服了货运量的单调性和周期波动性给预测带来的困难.通过利用该模型的优点,对某公司的货运量动态变化进行预测,说明该模型可明显提高货运量的预测精度.     

货运制胜

如果现在的预测是准确的,航空公司行业权力的天平在未来将会发生转变。尽管30年前,欧洲的航空公司手中握着航空货运的大权,但是如今这已经转到了中东和亚洲的航空公司手中。中东航空公司有钱,而且成本基础低,但是亚洲的承运人手中有货和全货机     

Freight village evaluation under uncertainty with public and private financing

The paper presents a method and models for assessing the financial viability of a new Freight village financed by private and public investments. The financial evaluation model constitutes an integrated part of a wider planning methodology, with four distinct phases, namely (a) site selection and traffic forecasts, (b) definition of services offered and corresponding dimensions, (c) estimation of investment and operation costs and (d) evaluation of investments. The paper presents the overall methodology, and presents analytically the evaluation method with the corresponding model. The model is developed specifically for the financial evaluation of investments for a Freight village incorporating uncertainty considerations in the values of the variables considered. The financial evaluation method identifies the various transport and other variables, which determine the cash flow of inputs (revenues) and outputs (investments, expenses) related to the construction and operation of a Freight village. Furthermore, the model produces financing scenarios, based on combinations of public and private funds as well as bank loans. In addition using Monte Carlo simulation the expected values of some key variables (investment costs, forecasted volumes and revenues) are estimated. Finally using linear programming an optimization related to the amount of private funds invested for a specific Freight village can be determined related to a mix of public and private funds (under certain constraints). An application of developed methodology and models is done for the case of a Freight village in Northern Greece, demonstrating its potential to application for similar cases.     

浅谈铁路货运代理服务与延伸服务的联系与区别

文章分析了铁路货运代理服务与延伸服务的联系与区别 ,并就发展货运代理业进行思考并提出对策措施。     

北美铁路货运发展对我国铁路货运的启示

在考察北美铁路货运发展特点的基础上,分析我国铁路在路网规模、技术装备、运输组织和市场份额方面存在的差距,提出以客户需求为中心,增强合作与开放意识;实施铁路大客户战略,加快"两整合一建设"步伐;积极调整货运产品结构,谋划铁路货运发展战略等铁路货运组织方式的改进建议.     

Conditional Freight Trip Generation modelling

Freight Trip Generation (FTG) in general and FTG modelling in particular are fields that are not concentrated upon as much as passenger trip generation. Therefore, the main objective of this work was to improve the understanding of the underlying processes that generate freight trips and through this understanding, to improve the modelling of FTG. To achieve this goal, the authors first had an extensive literature review to understand the reasons for the weaknesses of the current FTG modelling approaches. After identifying these weaknesses, some of them were brought to a focus in this work. One of the main weaknesses was the inadequacy of the classification system which was used to group commercial establishments in a set of standardized classes. Hence, firstly an experiment was conducted to create groups of logistical sites that had homogeneous FTG characteristics. It was observed that one of these segments had too many zero trips for a particular vehicle category, namely tractor-trailers. Then, to solve this problem, a new ‘conditional’ modelling approach for FTG modelling of this group and this vehicle category was proposed and tested using the data obtained from Kocaeli City Logistics Master Plan. This new hypothesised conditional approach aimed to find the probability of the segment generating tractor-trailer trips using the binary logit model and the generated trips given that the sites produced tractor-trailer trips using the regression technique. Afterwards, the models developed using the new approach were compared with the models obtained using only the common modelling approach of the regression analysis. The results indicated that creating homogeneous groups of logistical sites was possible and the new conditional modelling approach which was applied to one segment of the logistical sites for FTG of tractor-trailers, performed better than the regular regression modelling. Lastly, some recommendations for further improvement of this modelling approach were provided.     

货运工作量指标对货运收入的影响分析

在分析货运工作量指标与货运收入关系的基础上,探讨工作量因素的变化对货运收入的影响,得出各工作量变化对货运收入影响的计算方法,并对北京铁路分局2004年一季度的实际情况进行了分析计算,提出了增加货运收入的对策。     

铁路提速货车转向架等效横向刚度的研究

为了对铁路提速货车转向架摇枕的横向刚度进行等效计算,利用动力学仿真软件SIMPACK建立装有转K5型转向架的C70H型货车整车模型,对转向架的横向刚度进行仿真计算和分析。通过模型校验,仿真计算结果和实测结果对比说明,对于摆式转向架摇枕横向刚度的等效计算方法具有可行性,该研究方法可用于提速技术与装备的研究。     

铁路货运代理与第三方物流融合的探讨

分析了我国铁路货运代理与第三方物流之间的关系 ,阐明了二者融合的优势及面临的困难 ,并对铁路货运代理与第三方物流的融合提出了建议。     

Dealing with demand forecasting games in transport privatization

Privatization has increased the number of players in the decision-making process for major transport investment decisions. The main argument of this paper is that this fragmentation is creating opportunities for strategic decision-making by each actor and that this is particularly obvious in the context of demand forecasting. This paper explores some of the specific causes and consequences of this new situation, including the perverse incentives, linked to the diversity of the objectives across the actors and to the risk allocation induced by the regulatory regime. It illustrates the issues and possible solutions from a wide range of modal and country experiences. In particular, it discusses the role of the newly independent sector regulators in reconciling these diverse goals and their limitations in view of the major information asymmetries problems they face.     

铁路货运市场营销研究

铁路货物运输面临着市场份额不断下降的严峻形势。缺乏竞争意识、货物托运手续繁琐、乱收费和人员素质低、规章体系不合理、价格体系不适应是铁路货运市场份额下降的主要原因。建立铁路货运营销的基本对策和实施措施，是铁路制止货源下滑，摆脱经营困境，再造铁路运输企业辉煌的重要举措。     

关于铁路货运业务组织体制的探讨

通过对目前货运业务组织体制的分析 ,指出在我国实行运输承包发运制的意义 ,并对我国铁路货运业务体制改革及营销网络建设提出建议。     

对铁路货运集中化的探讨

分析了目前铁路枢纽内货运站布局存在的问题,对货运集中化运输进行了初步探讨。     

运用改进层次分析法评价阔大货物装载加固方案

利用改进的层次分析法分析确定阔大货物装载加固方案各主要因素的权重,并运用模糊综合评判模型对方案进行综合评价。改进的层次分析法避免了层次分析法中对判断矩阵的一致性检验和调整,简化了计算,并使权重确定更加科学合理。最后举以实例。     

关于铁路货运收入清算的思考

分析了铁路货运收入现行清算办法的突破和不足 ,对铁路管理体制改革中货物运输收入的清算办法进行了思考     

直达货物列车运输组织优化问题的研究

剖析直达货物列车运输组织中存在的问题,分析直达列车开行的规模经济效益特征,设计了直达列车开行方案的优化方法,并用实际算例对优化方法做了检验。     

加强货票传输审核保证货网分账核算

为推进铁路运输财务体制改革,实行货网分账核算,在货运单据信息完整的前提下,由铁道部资金清算中心根据中央货票库的数据进行公开、公正、公平的统一清算。因此,要求财务收入部门要把好货票审核关,保证清算依据与进款相一致。为达到这一目标,必须从提高认识,加强领导和加强基础建设,从货票入库率、上报正确率、上报及时率3方面加强考核,并逐步取消手工制票的车站。