Consumer benefits and demand impacts of regular train timetables

This paper reports novel research into the benefits that rail travellers receive from more regular features of timetables over and above any benefits of improved frequency. A stated preference (SP) exercise amongst rail travellers was conducted to estimate these benefits and the generally plausible results have been used to enhance a rail demand model which in turn has been used to forecast the effect on demand of more regular timetables for a range of situations. Not surprisingly, the demand impacts are generally relatively small, although they would be welcome additional benefits in the evaluation of a regular timetable.     

Attracting travellers to the high-speed train: a methodology for comparing potential demand between stations

The High-Speed Railways (HSR) which are currently operative in 12 countries throughout the world include a wide range of stations with a highly varied capacity to attract travellers. Although there are various reasons for these differences, we have focused on the ones that can be quantified for further comparison. The main purpose of this study was twofold. First of all, we sought to identify stations with a low capacity to attract travellers and to explain the reasons for their concentration in certain countries rather than others. Secondly, we looked for a simple, but widely acceptable, method with which to calculate the capacity to attract users to HSR stations. This would help to establish a better way of allocating financial resources for public investment. This approach enabled us to identify those stations that had little or no potential at all and which had been established for essentially political reasons in countries where the concept of territorial cohesion had been applied in an inappropriate way. This led us to a number of observations relating to the railway policies undertaken in the countries studied and to underline the need for greater international coordination in areas like Europe and for better justified HSR policies. The calculations presented in this article use data relating to the urban populations which live in the vicinity of the world’s HSR stations, the distance from each of these stations to the nearest urban centres and the level of the corresponding regional GDP. All of this information has been used to build a GIS to facilitate analysis and pave the way towards a general comparative approach in which stations would be classified according to their capacity to attract travellers. Such an approach could also be used in areas in which lines are currently under construction and/or where future projects – such as the TEN-T in Europe – have already been approved but not yet executed. Our approach will make it easier to obtain data to show the potential success of, and need for, a HSR connexion as a preliminary step within the decision making process. This constitutes a significant contribution to the debate about the need to assess political decisions concerning HSR investments. It also highlights the need to encourage improved intermodality around railway stations and particularly around those located in non-metropolitan areas.     

应用灰色-周期外延组合模型预测货运量

灰色-周期外延组合模型是在GM(1,1)基础上建立的残差周期外延模型,并提取优势周期以重新构造新的数据序列,再将不同周期同一时刻的值叠加.该模型克服了货运量的单调性和周期波动性给预测带来的困难.通过利用该模型的优点,对某公司的货运量动态变化进行预测,说明该模型可明显提高货运量的预测精度.     

货运制胜

如果现在的预测是准确的,航空公司行业权力的天平在未来将会发生转变。尽管30年前,欧洲的航空公司手中握着航空货运的大权,但是如今这已经转到了中东和亚洲的航空公司手中。中东航空公司有钱,而且成本基础低,但是亚洲的承运人手中有货和全货机     

北美铁路货运发展对我国铁路货运的启示

在考察北美铁路货运发展特点的基础上,分析我国铁路在路网规模、技术装备、运输组织和市场份额方面存在的差距,提出以客户需求为中心,增强合作与开放意识;实施铁路大客户战略,加快"两整合一建设"步伐;积极调整货运产品结构,谋划铁路货运发展战略等铁路货运组织方式的改进建议.     

浅谈铁路货运代理服务与延伸服务的联系与区别

文章分析了铁路货运代理服务与延伸服务的联系与区别 ,并就发展货运代理业进行思考并提出对策措施。     

货运工作量指标对货运收入的影响分析

在分析货运工作量指标与货运收入关系的基础上,探讨工作量因素的变化对货运收入的影响,得出各工作量变化对货运收入影响的计算方法,并对北京铁路分局2004年一季度的实际情况进行了分析计算,提出了增加货运收入的对策。     

铁路提速货车转向架等效横向刚度的研究

为了对铁路提速货车转向架摇枕的横向刚度进行等效计算,利用动力学仿真软件SIMPACK建立装有转K5型转向架的C70H型货车整车模型,对转向架的横向刚度进行仿真计算和分析。通过模型校验,仿真计算结果和实测结果对比说明,对于摆式转向架摇枕横向刚度的等效计算方法具有可行性,该研究方法可用于提速技术与装备的研究。     

铁路货运代理与第三方物流融合的探讨

分析了我国铁路货运代理与第三方物流之间的关系 ,阐明了二者融合的优势及面临的困难 ,并对铁路货运代理与第三方物流的融合提出了建议。     

对铁路货运集中化的探讨

分析了目前铁路枢纽内货运站布局存在的问题,对货运集中化运输进行了初步探讨。     

运用改进层次分析法评价阔大货物装载加固方案

利用改进的层次分析法分析确定阔大货物装载加固方案各主要因素的权重,并运用模糊综合评判模型对方案进行综合评价。改进的层次分析法避免了层次分析法中对判断矩阵的一致性检验和调整,简化了计算,并使权重确定更加科学合理。最后举以实例。     

铁路货运市场营销研究

铁路货物运输面临着市场份额不断下降的严峻形势。缺乏竞争意识、货物托运手续繁琐、乱收费和人员素质低、规章体系不合理、价格体系不适应是铁路货运市场份额下降的主要原因。建立铁路货运营销的基本对策和实施措施，是铁路制止货源下滑，摆脱经营困境，再造铁路运输企业辉煌的重要举措。     

直达货物列车运输组织优化问题的研究

剖析直达货物列车运输组织中存在的问题,分析直达列车开行的规模经济效益特征,设计了直达列车开行方案的优化方法,并用实际算例对优化方法做了检验。     

The liner shipping berth scheduling problem with transit times

In this paper speed optimization of an existing liner shipping network is solved by adjusting the port berth times. The objective is to minimize fuel consumption while retaining the customer transit times including the transhipment times. To avoid too many changes to the time table, changes of port berth times are only accepted if they lead to savings above a threshold value. Since the fuel consumption of a vessel is a non-linear convex function of the speed, it is approximated by a piecewise linear function. The developed model is solved using exact methods in less than two minutes for large instances. Computational experiments on real-size liner shipping networks are presented showing that fuels savings in the magnitude 2–10% can be obtained. The work has been carried out in collaboration with Maersk Line and the tests instances are confirmed to be representative of real-life networks.     

Slot auction in an airport network with demand uncertainty

This paper investigates the effectiveness of airport slot auction by developing a two-stage model, which distributes slots among competing airlines using an ascending-bid multi-unit auction. Airlines assign different values to slots at peak and off-peak periods, and each carrier has its private (subjective) forecast of future demand. Conditional on the slots available to them, airlines compete in frequency, fare, and aircraft size over a congested airport network. The market outcome under such a scheme is benchmarked to those under an ex ante allocation and an ex post allocation by a social planner. Comparison results suggest that the auction-based scheme is inferior to the other two schemes when there is little fluctuation in demand, whereas the auction-based system is more effective when there is substantial demand uncertainty. Auctioning some grandfathered slots can improve social welfare but the marginal effect may diminish quickly.     

Modeling public transport corridors with aggregate and disaggregate demand

Microeconomic public transport models aimed at maximizing social benefits usually consider demand in an aggregate manner. In this paper we examine the effect of this approach on the optimal values of frequency and vehicle size by comparison with models where demand is described in detail as a matrix of flows between every station in a single line service. The theoretical analysis and the numerical examples suggest that the spatially aggregated model underestimates optimal frequency and overestimates vehicle size.     

加强货票传输审核保证货网分账核算

为推进铁路运输财务体制改革,实行货网分账核算,在货运单据信息完整的前提下,由铁道部资金清算中心根据中央货票库的数据进行公开、公正、公平的统一清算。因此,要求财务收入部门要把好货票审核关,保证清算依据与进款相一致。为达到这一目标,必须从提高认识,加强领导和加强基础建设,从货票入库率、上报正确率、上报及时率3方面加强考核,并逐步取消手工制票的车站。     

关于铁路货运融入现代物流业若干问题的研究

分析了铁路货运融入现代物流业的必然性与可行性 ,认为铁路货运在许多方面与现代物流业还有很大差距 ,要融入现代物流 ,必须从增加运能、更新产品、创新体制和扩展功能入手 ,以大宗物资配送、闲置货场设施和仓库整合、铁路专业化运输为切入点 ,实现铁路货运由传统简单的运输作业向综合性的现代物流经营转变     

加强货运营销 优化运输组织

为了确保2009年运输目标的完成,沈阳铁路局针对运输需求下降,远程货源不足的实际情况,通过加强货运营销,稳固基础货源;积极扩能改造,优化运输组织,为完成年度目标提供货源支撑.同时,坚持挖潜提效,大力优化运输组织,加快机车车辆周转,以效率提高运力.     

考虑货物到达与列车出发时间接续的货物列车编成辆数研究

铁路货物列车适当欠轴发车能够加速货车周转,保障货物运到时限。阐述货物到达情况与列车图定发车时刻间的接续关系,以铁路运输企业经济效益最大化为目标,建立基于接续时间的货物列车编成辆数波动模型,利用软件对算例进行列车编成辆数波动下的货物列车配流,同时分析最大、最小编成辆数与技术作业时间波动率对发送货车数量和货物运输收益的影响。结果表明,货物到达与列车编组的接续时间关系会直接影响列车编成辆数和货物列车配流方案的确定,发送货车数量和货物运输收益依不同的最大、最小编成辆数和技术作业时间波动率而有所变化。