What governs firm-level R&D: Internal or external factors?

Two parallel streams of research investigating the determinants of corporate R&D exist: one from economics and the other from management. The economists’ variables tend to reflect the firm’s external environment while the explanatory variables used by management scientists are commonly internal to the firm. This paper combines both approaches to test for the relative importance of each type of factor using firm-level data on large Australian companies from 1990 to 2005. Our evidence suggests that most of a firm’s R&D activity can be explained by time-invariant factors which we believe relate to internal and specific characteristics such as the firm’s managerial dimensions, competitive strategy and how it communicates with employees. Of the remaining time-varying portion, we find that past profits, the rate of growth of the industry and the level of R&D activity over the firm’s industry is pertinent. These results are suggestive since we cannot clearly identify the extent to which the firm’s internal behaviour is conditioned by its external environment.     

Forecasting and decomposition of portfolio credit risk using macroeconomic and frailty factors

This paper presents a dynamic portfolio credit model following the regulatory framework, using macroeconomic and latent risk factors to predict the aggregate loan portfolio loss in a banking system. The latent risk factors have three levels: global across the entire banking system, parent-sectoral for the intermediate loan sectors and sector-specific for the individual loan sectors. The aggregate credit loss distribution of the banking system over a risk horizon is generated by Monte Carlo simulation, and a quantile estimator is used to produce the aggregate risk measure and economic capital. The risk contributions of the individual sectors and risk factors are measured by combining the Hoeffding decomposition with the Euler capital allocation rule. For the U.S. banking system, we find that the real GDP growth rate, the global and sector-wide frailty risk factors and their spillovers significantly affect loan defaults, and the impacts of the frailty factors are not only economy-wide but also sector-specific. We also find that the frailty risk factors make more significant risk contributions to the aggregate portfolio risk than the macroeconomic factors, while the macroeconomic factors help to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the credit risk forecasts.     

Financial Intermediaries,Credit Shocks and Business Cycles

We document the cyclical properties of aggregate balance sheet variables of the US commercial banks: (i) Bank credits and deposits are less volatile than output, while net worth and leverage ratio are several times more volatile, (ii) bank credits and net worth are procyclical, while deposits, leverage ratio and loan spread are countercyclical. We then present a real business cycle model with a financial sector to investigate how the dynamics of macroeconomic aggregates and balance sheet variables of the US banks are influenced by empirically disciplined shocks to bank net worth. Both calibrated and estimated versions of the model show that these financial shocks are important not only for explaining the dynamics of financial flows but also for the dynamics of macroeconomic variables. We find that the recent deterioration in aggregate net worth of the US banking sector contributed significantly to the 2007–09 recession.     

Economic policy uncertainty and enterprise value: Evidence from Chinese listed enterprises

In this paper, we investigate how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) influences enterprise value based on China’s EPU index and financial data on A-share listed enterprises from 2004 to 2018. Our empirical results show that uncertainty in economic policy has a significant restraining effect on enterprise value in general and that the degree of the impact is closely related to enterprise characteristics, including financial leverage, scale, R&D intensity, the degree of marketization, ownership, and location. More precisely, an increase in financial leverage and scale can mitigate the restraining effect of EPU on enterprise value, while an increase in R&D intensity and marketization degree will exacerbate the restraining effect. In addition, non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) and firms located in first-tier cities are more vulnerable to rising EPU. The evidence indicates that policymakers should pay attention to stability in macroeconomic policy and micro-enterprises should be concerned about the impact of uncertainty in economic policy, plan ahead, and take precautions.     

Commonality,macroeconomic factors and banking profitability

We study banks’ profitability in the US economy by means of dynamic factor models. Our results emphasize the importance of a few common cyclical market factors that greatly determine banking profitability. We conduct exhaustive regressions in a big data set of macroeconomic variables aiming to gain interpretability of our statistical factors. This allows us to identify three main macroeconomic factors underlying banking profitability: the financial burden of households and economic activity; household income and net worth and, in the case of ROA and ROE, stress in financial markets. We also provide an integrated perspective to analyse banks’ profitability dynamically and to inform policymakers concerned with financial stability issues, for which banks’ profitability is fundamental. Our models allow us to provide several rankings of vulnerable financial institutions considering the common market forces that we estimate. We emphasize the usefulness of such an exercise as a market-monitoring tool.     

Determinants of bank interest margins in Central and Eastern Europe: A comparison with the West

We investigate the determinants of bank interest margins in the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC). We assess to what extent the relatively high bank margins in CEEC can be attributed to low efficiency or non-competitive market conditions, controlling for the macroeconomic environment and the influence of foreign and state-owned banks. We systematically compare CEEC banks with Western European banks. Our results indicate that banking in the CEEC is on a virtuous path, at least in the EU accession countries: Increased efficiency benefits customers, while capital adequacy supports systemic stability. In the non-accession countries, important policy actions are required.     

Impact of Islamic banking development and major macroeconomic variables on economic growth for Islamic countries: Evidence from panel smooth transition models

This study examines the nonlinear relationship between Islamic banking development, major macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Islamic countries. Using the panel smooth transition model, the results show a positive nonlinear relationship between Islamic banking development and economic growth. Moreover, the relationship between the macroeconomic variables and economic growth is asymmetric and regime-dependent. Further, by using the dynamic panel quantile model, we show that for many cases the Islamic banking variables lead economic growth across the quantiles. More specifically, foreign direct investment, oil production and inflation have a positive impact on economic growth during the normal financial development state, while government consumption, one-lag economic growth, terms of trade and financial development have a negative impact on economic growth for this state. The human capital index, education and the rule of law have an insignificant impact, regardless of the prevailing regime. The results for the separated oil-importing and oil-exporting economies are generally consistent with the combined sample regarding the Islamic banking development variables. As for the macro variables, they have a positive and significant (insignificant) effect on EG for the oil-importing (oil-exporting) economies for almost all models.     

Credit risk of subsidiaries of foreign banks in CEE countries: Impacts of the parent bank and home country economic environment

In this study, using dynamic panel data, we investigated the influences of the home country economic environment and parent bank condition on the credit risk of foreign banks in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. We concentrated on the international transmission of credit risk through the internal capital market of multinational banks. Our theoretical assumptions follow studies that document how the parent bank condition and home country macroeconomic environment affect lending in subsidiaries in CEE countries. However, our results go one step further. We provide evidence that these relationships are reflected in subsidiaries’ credit risk in CEE countries. Our results suggest that the size and profitability of the parent bank have negative influences, while the liquidity and credit risk of the parent bank have positive influences on the subsidiaries’ credit risk. Moreover, the GDP growth in the parent bank’s country has a negative effect on the credit risk of the subsidiary, while the lending rate and liquidity in the parent bank country cause growth in the credit risk. These results indicate a new channel of international risk transfer from parent bank countries to host countries through foreign-owned banks.     

Competitiveness and entrepreneurship rate in Europe during the economic recovery phase, 2012–2016

Entrepreneurship is key for regional economic development. Regions can offer conditions that promote or limit business innovation activity. As the World Economic Forum points out, promotion and entrepreneurship support have been key factors for European countries to recover lost competitiveness. This study analyzes countries’ competitiveness level during the economic recovery phase using data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) and the Word Economic Forum Report for the 2012–2016 period. The sample comprises 19 countries of the European Union. The independent variable is Total Entrepreneurship Activity rate (TEA) and the dependent variables are the 12 pillars that measure competitiveness in the GEC Index. The results show that, over time, the macroeconomic environment conditions necessity entrepreneurship but, when the economy recovers, innovation determines the appearance of opportunity entrepreneurship. Differences between countries are less significant regarding entrepreneurial activity and competitiveness; however, patterns for northern and southern Europe still differ.

     

Blockholdings in closely held corporations: An analysis of ownership coalitions in emerging countries

Blockholdings in closely held corporations have been examined in the literature to understand the importance of the size and structure of minimal coalitions in a volatile macroeconomic environment. We show, theoretically and empirically, that three-member minimal controlling coalitions provide the best performance results because the portfolio of potential strategies of such coalitions can increase strategic choices in the boom-bust-recovery cycle, but coordination costs are not that high. We also show that “competition” between potential minimal controlling coalitions (of the same firm) with two or more members improves the firm’s performance. With respect to the characteristics of the institutional owners of one-member controlling coalitions, we found that firms controlled by foreigners and/or other non-financial firms and financial holdings performed better than the average firm. Our study indicates that the change of ownership structures in emerging countries is determined by the extant economic systems and through administrative interventions.     

How Debt Creates Pressure to Perform when Information Asymmetries are Large: Empirical Evidence from Business Start‐ups

In this paper, we empirically examine how leverage affects firm performance when information asymmetries are large. We argue that entrepreneurs are strongly incentivized to maximize earnings when leverage is high in order to reduce the likelihood of adverse credit decisions and firm liquidation. Our empirical tests focus on the effects of leverage on firm profitability and growth in earnings during a 5‐year window after start‐up for a large and unique sample of newly established ventures in Belgium. Accounting for the endogeneity of leverage, the data reveal that more highly indebted business start‐ups are not only more profitable but also realize larger earnings growth. Moreover, the positive effect of leverage on firm profitability intensifies as the venture matures.     

Regional differences in small firm entry in manufacturing industries: Lower Saxony, 1979–1991 †

This paper is an empirical study of inter-regional and inter-temporal variations in entry of new firms using longitudinal data covering all manufacturing establishments in Lower Saxony between 1979 and 1991. Patterns of entry are reported for sixteen regions based on gross rates of entry (number of new firms) and entry intensities (shares of employees). An empirical model is applied to detect regional characteristics that are highly correlated with entry. Pooling of cross-section and time-series data allows for control of influences of varying macroeconomic conditions and unobserved regional characteristics that turned out to be important. Small firm entry tends to be positively related to high overall economic growth, and to be higher in regions where both the small firm employment share and the level of wealth are high while the wage rate is low. We find no evidence for a negative impact of the business tax rate or for a positive effect of regional subsidies.     

Networks and market-based measures of systemic risk: the European banking system in the aftermath of the financial crisis

This article investigates the behaviour of the European banking system during the financial crises that occurred in the last decades. Among the various approaches for measuring systemic risk, we consider network analysis, which describes the linkages among financial institutions and their whole structure. We construct a time-varying network of the European banking system. Banks are linked to form a global interconnected system and they mutually influence one another in terms of risk. We model their reciprocal influence via a weighted and directed network, in which weights are related to risk measures that are based on equity returns. Then, we apply two network indicators to investigate the prominence of a bank in spreading and receiving risk from the others. The results enable us to capture many features of the banking system while identifying the global systemically important banks. Moreover, the results of the analysis over time show how interconnections change over periods that are characterized by various economic scenarios.

     

The Macroeconomic Effects of Shocks to Large Banks’ Capital

We propose a simple approach to quantifying the macroeconomic effects of shocks to large banks’ leverage. We first estimate a standard dynamic model of leverage targeting at the bank level and use it to derive an aggregate measure of the economic capital buffer of large US bank holding corporations. We then evaluate the response of key macro variables to a shock to this aggregate bank capital buffer using standard monetary VAR models. We find that shocks to the capital of large US banks explain a substantial share of the variance of credit to firms and real activity.     

经济责任审计覆盖率与地方国有企业杠杆治理--来自地方审计机关的经验证据

在供给侧结构性改革和审计全覆盖的大背景下,本文探讨了经济责任审计覆盖率对地方国有企业杠杆治理的影响。研究发现,经济责任审计覆盖率的提升可以有效降低地方国有企业的有息负债率;从地区层面来看,在政府干预程度较大的地区该影响更为显著;从企业层面来看,在金字塔层级较多的上市公司中该影响更为显著。进一步分析发现,经济责任审计覆盖率的提升会降低地方国有企业获得的贷款期限,同时提高企业贷款使用效率和地区的信贷配置效率。本文的研究结论可为国家审计在国资国企改革中发挥作用提供一定的启示。     

Investor protection,regulation and bank risk-taking behavior

This paper examines whether the influence of investor protection on banks’ risk is channeled through banking regulation, and vice-versa, using panel data from a sample of 567 European and US banks for the 2004–2015 period. As banking regulatory factors, we consider capital stringency, activity restrictions and private monitoring, whereas as investor protection factors, we consider the level of shareholder and creditor protection. We find that banking regulation moderates the positive direct influence of investor protection on banks’ risk, while investor protection reinforces the negative direct influence of banking regulation on risk. Moreover, we show that the negative effect of national regulations on banks’ risk is more pronounced during systemic crisis years. Finally, taking into account market competition, we argue that private monitoring only has a direct effect on banks’ risk, whereas the effects of capital stringency and activity restriction are channeled through market competition.     

Quantity of finance and financial crisis: A non-monotonic investigation☆

Whether finance is beneficial to economic development remains ambiguous. There are studies arguing that finance can facilitate growth and increase stability. However, the recent global financial crisis has led some to argue that finance can decrease stability and lead to more crises. This paper constructs a non-monotonic framework of quantity of finance (measured by leverage) and financial crisis and decomposes leverage into fundamental and excess components. Using cross-country level data, the empirical results confirms that it is excess leverage, rather than fundamental leverage, that results in the increase of probability of financial crisis. Further empirical results show that excess leverage leads to a higher probability of currency crisis, asset price collapse, and banking crisis, while fundamental leverage helps alleviates the crises. This paper reconciles the two contrasting views of the relationship between finance and economic development and provides strong policy implication to pay special attention to the sudden increase of leverage, which is probably excessive, rather than fundamental leverage.     

Bank monitoring,managerial ownership and Tobin's Q: an empirical analysis for India

The paper examines how banking relationships and managerial ownership relate to firm valuation. It is argued that both the number of banking relationships (which serves as an external monitoring function) and managerial ownership (which serves as an internal monitoring function) affect firm value, while internal monitoring by managers and external monitoring by banks were viewed as substitutes or complements. After controlling for the effect of exogenous variables, the results reveal the existence of a complementary monitoring effect between banks and the managerial group. On the other hand, the results indicate that increased external monitoring by banks will simultaneously raise the incentive on the part of managers to engage in internal monitoring. Also, firm valuation is found to be a significant determinant of managerial ownership. A disaggregated analysis of firms according to size and leverage suggests the existence of a complementary monitoring effect between banks and managers, except for small‐sized firms. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Off the radar: Factors behind the growth of shadow banking in Europe

This paper uses novel data from the European Central Bank and the Eurosystem on non-bank financial intermediation to investigate the potential factors of shadow banking growth for a panel of twenty-four countries in the European Union (EU). We find that the EU shadow banking system is highly procyclical and positively related to increasing demand by long-term institutional investors and to more stringent capital regulation. We show that individual entities in the shadow banking system can act as both complements and substitutes to traditional banking. In addition, we estimate four country-specific models using a Bayesian estimation method. We supplement the panel model estimates, which serve as a priori information, with data from a specific economy. We assert that, although some shadow banking determinants are uniform across countries, other may have heterogeneous effects across countries because of country-specific characteristics.     

Economic uncertainty and growth performance: a macroeconomic modeling analysis for Pakistan

This paper investigates the effects of economic uncertainty on growth performance of Pakistan through developing a small macroeconomic model. The GARCH method has been used for construction of economic uncertainty variables related to macroeconomic policies. The structural outcomes clearly indicate that economic policy uncertainty affects negatively on real and nominal sectors of Pakistan. The forecasting of model and different policy uncertainty simulation shocks also indicated that an adjustment in economic policies due to change of policy objectives create uncertain environment in country, which not only deteriorates the investment climate of country, it also affects the economic growth. Our study concludes that economic uncertainty not only reduces the current investment and economic growth, it also affects the future decision of investment and economic growth. This study suggests that sustainable and steady economic policies always reduce economic uncertainty and promote the confidence of economic agents, which help in achieving the targets of investment, trade and economic growth. Our study also maintains the predictability and reliability of government policies for the accomplishment of macroeconomic goals and economic development of country.