Bond Market Development,Economic Growth and Other Macroeconomic Determinants: Panel VAR Evidence

This paper examines causal relationships between bond market development, economic growth and four other macroeconomic variables in 35 countries for the period 1993–2011. Bond market development is defined in terms of the significance and presence of public sector, private sector, and international bond issues. Additional covariates being considered are the inflation rate, the real effective exchange rate, the real interest rate, and a measure of openness to international trade. We use a panel vector auto-regression model to reveal the nature of Granger causality among these variables. Specifically, we find that bond market development and the four macroeconomic covariates may be long-run causative factors for economic growth. Thus, policy makers seeking to foster economic growth are warned to check multi-causal studies involving all these variables before setting their policies.     

Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policies in Developing Asia: An Empirical Analysis

Before the 2008 global financial crisis, bank monitoring focused primarily on risks to individual institutions, or what are generally referred to as prudential risks. Regulators thus failed to consider that a buildup of macroeconomic risks and vulnerabilities could pose systemic risk to the financial sector. The global credit crisis showed the inadequacy of purely prudential surveillance systems and the need for bank supervisors to better detect the buildup of macroeconomic risks before they can threaten the financial system. This article presents an empirical framework for analyzing how effectively macroprudential policies control credit growth, leverage growth, and housing price appreciation. Two significant findings emerge. Broadly, macroprudential policies can indeed promote financial stability in Asia. More specifically, different types of macroprudential policies are proved effective for different types of macroeconomic risks.     

Ramsey meets Thünen: the impact of land taxes on economic development and land conservation

Land taxes can increase production in the manufacturing sector and enhance land conservation at the same time, which can lead to overall macroeconomic growth. Existing research emphasizes the non-distorting properties of land taxes (when fixed factors are taxed) as well as growth-enhancing impacts (when asset portfolios are shifted to reproducible capital). This paper furthers the neoclassical perspective on land taxes by endogenizing land allocation decisions in a multi-sector growth model. Based on von Thünen’s observation, agricultural land is created from wilderness through conversion and cultivation, both of which are associated with costs. In the steady state of our general equilibrium model, land taxes not only may reduce land consumption (associated with environmental benefits) but may also affect overall economic output, while leaving wages and interest rates unaffected. When labor productivity is higher in the manufacturing than in the agricultural sector and agricultural and manufactured goods are substitutes (or the economy is open to world trade), land taxes increase aggregate economic output. There is a complex interplay of conservation policy, technological change and land taxes, depending on consumer preferences, sectoral labor productivities and openness-to-trade. Our model introduces a new perspective on land taxes in current policy debates on development, tax reforms as well as forest conservation.     

Corruption,soundness of the banking sector,and economic growth: A cross-country study

This paper explores the impact of corruption on both the banking sector and economic growth; we determine the impact using 76 macroeconomic data from various countries over the period 2002–2004. The results of various cross-sectional regressions provide substantial evidence that corruption significantly aggravates the problems with bad loans in the banking sector. In this study, we also find some evidence of a new channel through which corruption lowers economic growth: Corruption distorts the allocation of bank funds from normal projects to bad projects, which decreases the quality of private investments, hence it decreases economic growth.     

The anticipated and concurring effects of the EMU: exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth

Reduced exchange rate volatility and higher and less heterogeneous quality of institutional rules and macroeconomic policies are two of the main (anticipated and concurring) effects expected from a currency union.In this paper, we measure the magnitude of these two effects for the Eurozone countries looking at real effective exchange rates (REER) and at different indicators of quality of institutional rules and macroeconomic policies (QIRMP). We find that the first effect is much stronger than the second when we compare relative changes for Eurozone countries and the rest of the world in the relevant period.We further evaluate the impact of both effects on economic growth on a larger sample of countries. Our findings show that both have significant impact on levels (more robust) and on rates of growth (weaker) of per capita GDP.     

The impact of the banking sector on economic structure and growth

In this paper, we study the impact of banking sector development on changes in economic structure and growth. We argue that banking sector development has differential effects on industrial sector development and agricultural sector development. We test whether economic structure and growth foster banking sector development. To test our hypotheses, we construct a panel sample of all countries in the world during 1960–2016. We find that banking sector development has a negative effect on agricultural sector development but exerts no effect on industrial sector development. The negative effect of banking sector development on agricultural sector development is only observed for countries with high degrees of banking sector development. Our results further show that agricultural sector development exerts a negative effect on banking sector development while industrial sector development has a positive effect on banking sector development.     

Corruption,growth, and governance: Private vs. state-owned firms in Vietnam

We provide a firm-level analysis of the relation between corruption and growth for private firms and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Vietnam. We obtain three different measures of the perceived corruption severity from a 2005 survey among 741 private firms and 133 SOEs. We find that corruption hampers the growth of Vietnam’s private sector, but is not detrimental for growth in the state sector. We document significant differences in the corruption severity across 24 provinces in Vietnam that can be explained by the quality of provincial public governance (such as the costs of new business entry, land access, and private sector development policies). Our results suggest that corruption may harm economic growth because it favors the state sector at the expense of the private sector and that improving the quality of local public governance can help to mitigate corruption and stimulate economic growth.     

转轨条件下宏观调控的目标次序

宏观调控是现代市场经济中决定经济能否平稳增长的重要因素.对于宏观调控的内涵,学术界有较大分歧,尽管中国的宏观调控目标与西方没有两样,但在转轨过程中,宏观调控的目标次序必须根据不同阶段的不同情况做出调整.短期稳定的宏观经济政策必须兼顾中长期市场化的制度变革.     

碳定价、双重金融摩擦与“双支柱”调控

本文构建包含异质性企业、双重金融摩擦和“双支柱”政策的DSGE模型来探究碳税和碳交易这两种碳定价政策对中国宏观经济的长短期影响和作用机制。研究发现:(1)两种碳定价政策均会导致经济在短期出现一定衰退,但在长期则有助于推进经济高质量发展,达到更高的均衡水平;(2)在面对碳排放技术冲击时,相比碳税政策,碳交易政策下,碳价大幅波动会进一步加剧经济波动,在碳交易市场中对碳价设定上下限,可以有效地减轻碳排放技术冲击所导致的经济波动;(3)面对气候政策冲击,包含金融部门风险规避的双重金融摩擦会进一步加剧气候政策对宏观经济的负面影响;(4)在经济转型过程中,结构性供需不平衡会引发一定的通胀现象,但此时货币政策不宜对通胀做出过多反应,而应刺激产出,支持绿色发展,推动供需平衡,从根源上解决通胀问题。引入“双支柱”调控后发现,考虑到经济转型风险的宏观审慎政策能显著减弱气候政策所导致的经济波动和金融不稳定,提高居民福利。     

税收政策对农村经济发展影响研究

现行税收政策对农业的调节功能较弱，税收政策调整滞后于农业经济发展的总体变化。鉴于税收对农村经济增长、农业资本投入、农业技术进步及农业产业结构都存在不同程度的影响，建议在税收政策上给予农业良好的环境空间，以形成有利于刺激农村经济发展的良性机制。     

住房价格、金融稳定与宏观审慎政策

本文通过建立包含异质性家庭、异质性厂商和金融机构的DSGE模型,分析对预期房价作出反应的货币政策和宏观审慎政策的传导机制和政策效果,研究不同政策的选择和协调问题。研究发现,首先,由于政策的作用范围不同,不同政策会对金融稳定和经济稳定产生不同影响。对预期房价作出反应的货币政策能够抑制住房需求和信贷供给,但也会抑制消费需求和产出;而对预期房价作出反应的逆周期LTV政策和逆周期资本充足率政策在应对房价波动导致的金融稳定问题时更加有的放矢。其次,外生冲击的来源会影响政策的选择和协调——当经济波动来源于需求冲击时,固定LTV政策搭配逆周期资本充足率的宏观审慎政策、不对预期房价作出反应的货币政策表现最优;当经济波动来源于供给冲击时,固定LTV政策搭配逆周期资本充足率的宏观审慎政策、对预期房价作出反应的货币政策表现最优。     

The determinants of private capital flow volatility in Sub-Saharan African countries

The study investigates the underlying factors of patterns of volatility for FDI, portfolio equity and cross-border bank lending inflows for sub-Saharan African countries using a panel framework with data from 1990 to 2011. No other study has focussed exclusively on sub-Saharan Africa when investigating the determinants of private capital flow volatility. This study is further unique in that it employs clearly-delineated cross-border bank lending data from the Bank of International Settlements’ (BIS) Locational Banking Statistics that has not been used by similar prior studies. The findings of the study are as follows: (1) global liquidity lowers FDI volatility while private sector credit increases volatility; (2) global liquidity increases portfolio equity volatility with growth and the quality of macroeconomic policies found to be important pull factors in lowering volatility; and (3) the quality of macroeconomic policies and trade openness are important pull factors in lowering cross-border bank lending volatility while financial openness increases volatility.     

Sustainability of macroeconomic policies in selected MENA countries: Post financial and debt crises

In the wake of the recent financial and debt crises, the conduct of macroeconomic policies in the emerging MENA economies has recently become critical in determining those countries future economic situation, due to the accumulation since the early 1990s of a sizable level of external debt, and the pursuit by some countries of a fixed exchange rate regime. Using time series econometric models, this study assesses the sustainability of macroeconomic policies in a selected sample of 4 MENA countries. The empirical results point to sustainable fiscal and exchange rate policies in Tunisia and Morocco, and unsustainable external debt and exchange rate policies in Egypt and Jordan. While Egypt has recently moved to a flexible exchange rate regime, if Jordan still opts for maintaining a fixed exchange rate arrangement, it will have to implement crisis-prevention measures, namely by exercising fiscal discipline, and managing properly its external debt and foreign reserves.     

宏观经济调控：直行还是转向？

今年以来,受国内外多种因素的影响,国内经济出现放缓迹象,稳增长继而被摆在更加重要的位置,但业界也出现了对当前宏观调控政策取向中是否应有更多刺激经济政策的分歧。文章指出,目前中国经济运行中的困难不同于2008年国际金融危机期间的情形,其主要是中国经济内在结构调整和政府宏观调控的结果,也有欧债危机冲击的因素。应对目前经济困难格局的政策空间较大,手段充裕,我们完全有条件在坚持积极财政政策和稳健货币政策的同时,处理好保增长、促就业和调结构的平衡关系。     

货币政策波动、银行信贷与会计稳健性

宏观经济政策(如货币政策)如何通过改变微观企业行为来影响经济发展是学术界探讨得比较少的领域。本文在此方向上进行研究尝试,并以货币政策波动对企业会计政策稳健性与银行贷款之间的关系为切人点。具体来说,当货币政策进入紧缩期时,我们预期企业会计政策变得更加稳健,以更容易取得银行贷款。运用1998～2008年的年度数据,并根据央行要求的金融机构存款准备金率、对金融机构的再贷款利率和再贴现利率的变化,我们定义2004、2006、2007年为我国的货币政策紧缩阶段。实证结果基本上支持我们的预期。我们进一步发现依赖于外部融资和拥有更高债务水平的企业会计稳健性更高,持有大量现金的企业会计稳健性更低,国有企业的会计稳健性更低。在会计稳健性的经济后果上,本文发现在货币政策紧缩阶段,会计稳健性的提高有助于企业获得更多的信贷资源。     

Population growth. Its magnitude and implications for development

A summary of the 1984 World Development Report is provided. The 3 major points stressed in the report were: 1) rapid population growth adversely affects development, 2) governments must adopt policies to reduce fertility, and 3) policies adopted by many countries have effectively reduced fertility. World population growth began accelerating at 0.5%/year in the 18th century, and by 1950 the annual acceleration rate was 2%. Most of the increase in population size is occurring in less developed countries, and this increase is due in part to the recent decline in mortality experienced by these countries. Of the 80 million individuals who will be added to the world's population in 1984, 70 million will be in the developing countries. Since 1965 the population growth rate for developing countries as a group declined from 2.4% to 2%. However, because of the high proportion of younger aged individuals in developing countries, the decline in fertility is expected to level off. According to World Bank population projections, the world population will stabilize at around 11 billion in 2150. During the interium, the population of developing countries will increase from its present level of 3.6 billion to 8.4 billion, and the population of developed countries will increase from 1.2 billion to 1.4 billion. These projections are probably overly optimistic. The adverse impact on development of rapid population growth is due to several factors. 1st, resources which could be used for investment must instead be used to fulfill the consumption needs of an increased number of people. 2nd, increases in the labor force must be absorbed by the agricultural sector, and this reduces agricultural productivity. 3rd, rapid population growth increases management problems. The adaption of policies by governments to reduce fertility is a necessary step in halting population growth. For poor families, children provide economic security. Therefore, governments must act to improve the economic conditions for poor families if they hope to reduce population growth. Education and job opportunities must be expanded and social security provided for the elderly. In the past it was assumed that fertility would only decline when urbanization, industrialization, and income reached a certain level. It is now known that appropriate policies can effectively reduce fertility even in the absence of economic advancement. Fertility declines are more closely related to increases in literacy and life expectancy than to increases in the gross national product. Family planning programs in China, Colombia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Korea, Sri Lanka, and Tunisia have reduced fertility far below the level normally associated with the income levels prevailing in those countries.     

欧洲央行负利率政策评析——以对德意志银行的影响为例

自2014年6月欧洲央行实施负利率以来,已有近六个年头,最初的政策设计是以负利率降低企业和个人融资成本,刺激投资与消费,从而实现经济增长和避免通货紧缩,但事与愿违,2019年欧元区经济增速仅为1.2%,创下六年来的新低,同期CPI为1.3%,也远低于2%。在宏观经济目标未实现的情况下,理论上负利率可以降低银行利息支出,提升银行的经营业绩,事实如何呢?本文以德意志银行为例进行案例分析,揭示负利率对银行业的影响。     

MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A POLICY PERSPECTIVE

A comprehensive macroeconomic adjustment program is expectedto have the following objectives: a sustainable current accountposition, a stable and high rate of economic growth that wouldallow for a steady rise in per capita consumption, a reducedrate of inflation, and a manageable level of foreign debt. Thepackage designed to meet these objectives would typically includepolicy measures that simultatenously restrain aggregate demandand increase the availability of resources. These policies maybe grouped as follows: demand-management policies, structuralpolicies, exchange rate policies, and external financing policies.This article describes how these policies can be expected toachieve the goal of macroeconomic adjustment. The focus is primarilyon the theoretical and empirical links between policy instrumentsand ultimate objectives. An examination of these links is necessarybefore issues of the appropriate mix of demand-management, structural,exchange rate, and external policies, and the sequencing ofthese policies in a program, can be properly addressed.      

Finance and consumption volatility: Evidence from India

The main objective of this paper is to explore the determinants of private consumption growth volatility in India, focusing on the role of financial sector policies. Using data for India over the period 1950-2005, the results show that the implementation of financial repressionist policies is strongly associated with lower consumption volatility. The results remain robust after controlling for a wide range of macroeconomic shocks and variables. The presence of a threshold effect implies that the benefits of financial reforms in reducing consumption volatility can only be reaped when the financial system becomes sufficiently liberalized. The results also indicate that the presence of a more open financial system may serve to dampen fluctuations in private consumption.     

经济政策不确定性与企业贷款成本

基于大样本微观银行信贷数据,本文研究经济政策不确定性对企业的银行贷款成本的影响。研究发现,经济政策不确定性升高导致企业的银行贷款成本增加,且使得在中小型银行贷款的企业成本增加更多。异质性分析表明,经济政策不确定性升高对受政策因素影响较大的企业如小微企业、私营企业等的银行贷款成本的影响更为明显。进一步,对企业的银行贷款违约风险的研究发现,随着经济政策不确定性升高,企业的银行贷款违约风险反而降低。这表明,经济政策不确定性升高使得银行选择风险评级更低的贷款,符合谨慎性动机。本文研究结论表明,经济政策不确定性升高时,银行“自我保险”动机的增强使得企业的银行贷款成本增加,这在中小型银行中表现得更加明显,同时也更多地转嫁给中小企业。本文为经济政策不确定性对企业投资、宏观经济波动等的研究提供了微观解释机制,并揭示了政府经济政策的一致性、稳定性对维护金融稳定的重要作用。