The Economic Outlook for London

This article reviews how the London economy has fared over the past six months and prospects for the next few years. For the first time, it includes estimates and forecasts of GVA growth in each of the Central London boroughs. It concludes that there appears to have been something of a slowdown in the London economy recently, and the outlook is for slightly softer growth than at the time of the last 'London Outlook'. But, nonetheless, job creation is expected to remain healthy - and above that for the UK as whole. Central London is expected to grow faster than the rest of London, as it benefits from the renewed expansion of financial and business service employment.     

The Economic Outlook for London

After a period of rapid growth in the first half of the year, the UK economy hit a softer patch in the summer. This article looks at whether this softer patch threatens the recovery in London from the significant shake-out of jobs in 2000–2002, which had previously looked to be underway. It concludes that fewer net new jobs are likely to be created in London this year than we expected six months ago, but that employment growth is still expected to exceed the UK average in 2005 and 2006.     

The Economic Outlook for London

The strength of London's economy has been very apparent over the past year, after a period when the potential for recovery was clear but there was less hard evidence. Financial services have clearly played a large part in driving the acceleration in London's growth, with stock markets, M&A activity and profitability all strong over the last 18 months. London's growth has also been bolstered by strong international immigration. Our latest forecasts show a modest slowdown in London's economy next year from a robust 3.9% in 2006, in response to higher UK interest rates and weaker growth in both the US and the Eurozone. But employment in London is still forecast to rise by 1.2% in 2007, with GDP expected to grow by 2.9% in London compared with 2.3% in the UK as whole.     

Economic Outlook 1981–1985: The London Business School with Gower Publishing

The contrast between the "real" and the "financial" economy is acutely illustrated by the latest indicators. On the one hand industrial production fell I 'A per cent in June to the levels of a year ago and manufacturing industry recorded its worst month in 15 years. On the other hand developments on the financial side of the economy remain encouraging. Interest rates have fallen steadily since last October, public borrowing is under control, the money supply - on whatever measure - has been expanding within its target range and the exchange rate is firm against the average of all other currencies. Reflecting these developments, inflation is also improving rapidly. Retail prices were unchanged in July and 8.7 per cent higher than a year earlier - the best outturn since 1978. Ministers are now confident that their year-end forecast of 9 per cent will easily be beaten, and that an outturn of 7 1/2 per cent is possible.