次货危机下的人民币国际化问题探讨

强势经济会造就强势贷币，中国经济20多年的超高速增长，使中国的国际收支规模和对外支付能力有了空前的提高，出口和外汇储备均为世界前列。货币权力的大小与其所在国或地区GDP在全球的地位高度正相关，作为全球第四大经济体，人民币的“低调”无法隐藏人民币正在成为新兴国际货币的事实。本文首先分析了中国当前人民币周边流通的现状、衡量了人民币和当今世界两大货币一美元、欧元的国际化程度，指出人民币虽然在周边国家和地区流通，但在国际化的道路上依然面临着诸多的困难和挑战；接着本文结合实际分析指出，“区域化”是人民币国际化的第一步；最后本文在“人民币区域化”的基础上提出了推进人民币国际化的几点建议。     

人民币国际化问题的思考

本文简述了国际货币的概念及其货币国际化所需要具备的条件,并分析了人民币跨境流通、香港的人民币离岸中心,以及人民币在资本项目下可兑换的限制正在逐步消除的现状和所面临的问题,在此基础上,本文探讨人民币在区域化和国际化过程中所需要的条件。     

次贷危机下的人民币国际化问题探讨

强势经济会造就强势货币,中国经济20多年的超高速增长,使中国的国际收支规模和对外支付能力有了空前的提高,出口和外汇储备均为世界前列。货币权力的大小与其所在国或地区GDP在全球的地位高度正相关,作为全球第四大经济体,人民币的"低调"无法隐藏人民币正在成为新兴国际货币的事实。本文首先分析了中国当前人民币周边流通的现状、衡量了人民币和当今世界两大货币—美元、欧元的国际化程度,指出人民币虽然在周边国家和地区流通,但在国际化的道路上依然面临着诸多的困难和挑战;接着本文结合实际分析指出,"区域化"是人民币国际化的第一步;最后本文在"人民币区域化"的基础上提出了推进人民币国际化的几点建议。     

人民币国际化问题思考

随着中国经济的持续增长,人民币在周边国家和地区广泛流通与使用,开始了它的国际化进程。一种货币要成为国际货币,必须具备一定的条件,货币的国际化将给发行国带来巨大的经济利益和政治利益。中国改革开放取得的巨大成就以及在世界政治舞台上的重要地位,为人民币国际化提供了现实基础,要推进人民币国际化必须实施一系列对策。     

人民币国际化问题思考

随着中国经济的持续增长,人民币在周边国家和地区广泛流通与使用,开始了它的国际化进程。一种货币要戍为国际货币,必须具备一定的条件,货币的国际化将给发行国带来巨大的经济利益和政治利益。中国改革开放取得的巨大成就以及在世界政治舞台上的重要地位,为人民币国际化提供了现实基础,要推进人民币国际化必须实施一系列对策。     

透过跨境贸易人民币结算浅析人民币国际化进程

人民币国际化进程是人民币不断实现货币职能和地域扩展的一个过程,其发展必经三个阶段：现钞流通和使用;成为周边地区贸易和金融交易的计值、结算和流通货币,即区域化;成为储备货币,实现真正的国际化。本文从跨境人民币交易的最新进展着手,对当前人民币国际化进程中这一的重大事件做出分析,并提出相应对策。     

人民币国际化现状及发展分析

人民币国际化是指人民币跨越国界,在境外流通,成为国际上普遍认可的计价、结算及储备货币的过程。金融危机背景下,人们对储备货币多样化的诉求客观上有利于人民币国际化进程的推进。本文从人民币海外流通的现状出发,分析了现阶段推动人民币国际化的有利因素,同时指出,人民币国际化的实现是一个复杂而漫长的过程,必须立足亚洲,以实现区域化为起点;以金融产品市场的完善和资本项目开放为基础,以对金融市场行为的监管能力和效率的提高为保障。     

人民币国际化路径选择问题分析——人民币国际化现状及其路径选择

随着当今人民币流通规模的不断扩大,人民币在不同地区充当着结算、交易和储备货币的职能。人民币要实现国际化是一个需要长期性的过程,而其务必要经过周边化、区域化和全球化这三个阶段。目前还处于过渡阶段,在发展的过程中会受到许多因素的制约,需要进一步改革和推动政策,从而促使人民币的区域化和全球化。     

论人民币区域化进程

人民币的区域化流通与进一步的国际化是我国的长期目标，当前，经过一系列的努力，虽然人民币的国际化进程进展较为缓慢，但是其仍在有效的推进中。目前，我国的首要任务是对于我国经济发展的调整与优化，这包括了经济结构调整，经济发展方式的转变等重要方面之外就是人民币在贸易中的广泛应用与计价，即推动人民币成为结算货币的过程，最终以达到人民币作为债卷的计价货币，为实现人民币的储备货币功能创造条件，最终是人民币成为亚洲的关键性货币。     

人民币国际化研究

随着中国在经济规模上正在迅速扩大，已经成为世界第三大出口国，汇率保持稳定强势，金融改革正在加快，人民币国际化条件基本具备。目前，因为外汇储备财富缩水、经济持续发展困难、国际经济地位偏低的原因也要求人民币加快国际化进程。在这个过程中，可以获得铸币税收益、提升中国国际地位、防范降低汇率风险、缓解外汇储备压力、制定独立的货币政策等益处，但也存在着直接受到国际金融市场风险冲击，金融宏观监管难度加大等风险。还受到美国政府阻碍、中国经济总量还不够大、经济结构不尽合理、金融体系尚不健全的障碍。所以人民币国际化就必然要经历结算货币周边化、投资货币区域化、储备货币国际化的进程。     

丝绸之路经济带建设与人民币区域化的前景——以中亚地区为例的研究

丝绸之路经济带建设是我国扩大对外开放、深化国际经济合作的新举措,这为人民币向丝绸之路经济带沿线国家输出、实现人民币区域化乃至国际化创造了有利条件.本文以中亚地区为例,基于国际货币竞争视角,采用演化博弈模型分析人民币区域化对中国、中亚国家以及区内主要国际货币发行国利益关系的影响,运用局部稳定分析方法测算得出,从长远来看,中国和中亚国家、区内主要国际货币发行国在人民币中亚区域化博弈中倾向于采取合作策略.同时,采用仿真模拟实验,判断各博弈参与主体在既定条件下选择不同策略的可能性,研究得出中国与中亚国家、区内主要国际货币发行国的博弈策略选择会随着时间变化最终收敛于合作的策略集的结论.     

人民币周边化与东盟国家“货币锚”调整的效应分析

人民币的周边化是一个由计价结算手段生成储备货币的过程,其路径应该是先升值至一个外汇市场上可接受的均衡位置,然后再实行由市场定价的浮动汇率制度。本文对2000年1月1日到2010年8月10日东盟主要国家的货币和国际货币及人民币进行了回归,发现自2005年7月21日人民币升值以来,美元在东盟国家"货币锚"的地位在下降,人民币在东盟确立了强势货币的地位,东盟主要国家的"货币锚"调整为人民币、日元和欧元。东盟国家"货币锚"的多样化,对于应对国际金融危机主要国际货币币值的大幅度波动是有利的。而作为这一过程的另外一个方面,人民币必定会成为东盟国家的储备货币,人民币的国际化进程也会得到加快。     

Currency composition of reserves,trade invoicing and currency movements

This article analyses the relationships among the unit of account and means of exchange functions of an international currency, on the one hand, and its store of value in official use, on the other hand. Historical evidence links the currency composition of reserves to currency movements. The currency composition of reserves is strongly related in the cross-section to both currency movements and the currency denomination of trade. Data limitations make it hard to distinguish these two factors. A panel analysis of 5 countries from central and Eastern Europe shows that both trade invoicing and currency movements drive changing official reserve composition. Implications are suggested for the prospects for the renminbi enlarging its current small portion of official foreign exchange reserves.     

Does a Common Currency Promote Countries’ Growth via Trade and Tourism?

The main aim of this study is to contribute to the debate on the effects of a common currency. In particular, the impact of a common currency on growth via trade and tourism is explored for a panel dataset which includes 179 countries as destination and 30 OECD countries as origin over the period 1995–2006. This research contributes to previous work in three ways: (i) tourism is included as an additional channel for a common currency to promote growth; (ii) the heterogeneity of countries is addressed by dividing the sample into three groups of countries by income; and (iii) up‐to‐date data including the case of the euro are considered. The results obtained suggest that a common currency strengthens economic growth by promoting not only international trade but also tourism.     

A theory of the currency denomination of international trade

The currency denomination of international trade has significant macroeconomic and policy implications. In this paper we solve for the optimal invoicing choice by integrating this microeconomic decision at the level of the firm into a general equilibrium open economy model. Strategic interactions between firms play a critical role. We find that the less competition firms face in foreign markets, as reflected in market share and product differentiation, the more likely they will price in their own currency. We also show that when a set of countries forms a monetary union, the new currency is likely to be used more extensively in trade than the sum of the currencies it replaces.     

Will the Renminbi Emerge as an International Reserve Currency?

The global reserve system can be strengthened by increasing the role of alternative currencies. A gradual evolution to a multicurrency system reduces pressure on a single reserve currency issuer from an ever‐growing balance‐of‐payments deficit. It also allows countries to better diversify their foreign exchange holdings. Given the continuing strong economic growth in the China and its growing influence on the world economy, the renminbi will likely emerge as a new international currency. However, this is contingent on the China accepting a more convertible capital account and developing an efficient financial system. Internationalising the renminbi will likely be a gradual and drawn‐out process. Simulations show that, with greater convertibility, the renminbi could gradually become an international currency within Asia and beyond – sharing from 3 to 12 per cent of international reserves by 2035.     

The arrival of the Euro and its implications for Asia

The third stage of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) commenced on January 1, 1999 with the launch of the European single currency, the euro. The first round of participants comprises 11 of the 15 European Union (EU) nations, dubbed “Euroland.” The potential implications of EMU for Asia are immense. The euro's emergence as an international currency and its impact on Asia can be assessed in 3 different domains: (1) as a medium of exchange for Europe's trade with Asia; (2) as a store of value in stocks and bonds in world capital markets; and (3) as part of official foreign exchange reserves of Asian central banks. Our analysis suggests that there is potential for the euro to play a bigger role in EU-Asia trade links, which will be underpinned by the collective importance of Euroland as a much-enlarged trading and investment partner for Asia. However, in the short term at least, Asian equity markets are unlikely to benefit from significant inflows of capital from the EU as the former have been decimated by the region's financial crisis. As for Asian bond markets, rapid deterioration of sovereign ratings of countries in the region over the past 12 months would make it difficult for Asian companies to raise funds through euro-denominated debt instruments. As for official foreign exchange reserves, the bulk of Asian reserves is currently held in US dollar assets. Judging from Asian trade and debt figures, it seems unlikely that the euro would challenge the US dollar as a reserve currency any time in the near future. Nevertheless, in the longer term, the euro's introduction could make it easier for Asian central banks to diversify their reserves from the greenback to the euro. The internationalization of the euro is likely to happen only gradually, whether in terms of international trade denomination and settlement, denominating international financial assets, or as a reserve currency. Since the magnitude of shock that the single European currency would bring to the international monetary system is still unknown, only very tentative conclusions for the impact on Asian countries can be drawn at this point in time.     

Inflation,currency exchange rates,and the international securities markets

A time-state-preference model of an efficient and complete international financial market is employed to investigate the conditions under which the international Fisher Effect will hold, and the forward currency exchange rate will be an unbiased estimate of the future spot rate. The presence of stochastic inflation within countries in the fiat-currency prices of real goods will destroy both relationships, even in the absence of any institutional imperfections or trading barriers. Similarly, expected inflation rate differentials across countries will not coincide with spot-versus-forward currency exchange rate differentials.     

The road to currency internationalization: Global perspectives and chinese experience

This paper studies international currency use in financial transactions. A currency becomes international when it circulates outside of its issuing country, and advances to vehicle currency status if used by non-residents. With currency information from the SWIFT dataset, we estimate a gravity model to explain the geographical distribution of international currency use. A higher level of economic integration and stable macroeconomic conditions increase the international use of major currencies such as USD and EUR. Merchandise trade and portfolio investment are most helpful in increasing the direct use of currency, while foreign direct investment (FDI) has a stronger effect on promoting vehicle use. Merchandise trade improves the intensity of the global use of the Chinese renminbi (RMB), while FDI increases the number of its users. The policy effect on RMB internationalization is significant only in enhancing the intensity of direct use. Furthermore, the global use of RMB is decreasing by distance, implying that its role is more regional. We recommend outward FDI through the Belt and Road Initiative to further promote RMB internationalization.     

从人民币升值对区域贸易结构的影响看全球经济失衡

通过对美国贸易逆差的区域贸易结构及人民币升值和以泰国、菲律宾和马来西亚为代表的其他亚洲国家出口的关系的分析,得出结论:亚洲国家,尤其是中国不应该为美国贸易逆差承担主要责任,亚洲国家应团结起来指明当前全球经济失衡的根本原因以维护亚洲国家的整体利益.