An assessment of Portuguese banks’ efficiency and productivity towards euro area participation

This paper analyses the production technology of Portuguese banks during the 1992–2006 period through the estimation of a translog cost frontier. This period is of major interest because it covers Portugal’s euro area accession and its impact on the banking system. Hence, critical factors impacting the banking system are identified against the background of increasing financial integration prior to the financial crisis that started in 2007 and later translated into strains in some European sovereign debt markets. Banks are modelled as firms which produce loans and other earning assets, choosing the cost minimizing combination of labour, capital and interest bearing debt, subject to holding a predetermined level of equity. According to the results of this study, technological progress has shifted the cost frontier downwards throughout the period under consideration, whereas the distance at which banks have operated from the frontier seems to have remained constant. Further, increases in production under scale economies have also contributed to the recorded increase in productivity.     

Accounting for financial instruments in the banking industry: conclusions from a simulation model

The paper analyses the effects of three sets of accounting rules for financial instruments – Old IAS before IAS 39 became effective, Current IAS or US GAAP, and the Full Fair Value (FFV) model proposed by the Joint Working Group (JWG) – on the financial statements of banks. We develop a simulation model that captures the essential characteristics of a modern universal bank with investment banking and commercial banking activities. We run simulations for different strategies (fully hedged, partially hedged) using historical data from periods with rising and falling interest rates.

We show that under Old IAS a fully hedged bank can portray its zero economic earnings in its financial statements. As Old IAS offer much discretion, this bank may also present income that is either positive or negative. We further show that because of the restrictive hedge accounting rules, banks cannot adequately portray their best-practice risk management activities under Current IAS or US GAAP. We demonstrate that – contrary to assertions from the banking industry – mandatory FFV accounting adequately reflects the economics of banking activities.

Our detailed analysis identifies, in addition, several critical issues of the accounting models that have not been covered in previous literature.     

Are universal banks bad for financial stability? Germany during the world financial crisis

This case study explores the contribution of universal banking to financial stability in Germany during the recent financial crisis. Germany is a prototype for universal banking and has suffered from a rather small number of banking crises in the past. We review the banking literature and analyze the major institutional and regulatory features of the German financial system to establish a nexus between universal banking and stability. We focus on the following questions. First, which banks failed and did they because they were universal or because of other reasons? Second, which types of distress beside outright bank failures resulted from the crisis and how did German universal banks dealt with them? We show that only few German banks failed and these banks did so not because they were universal banks but because they were publicly owned. Most banks instead contributed to reduce the impact of the recent crisis.     

Interest rates and financial fragility

How do the interest rates banks earn on their assets affect the susceptibility of the banking system to a self-fulfilling run by depositors? I study this question in a version of the model of Diamond and Dybvig (1983) with limited commitment and a non-trivial portfolio choice. I show that the relationship between these interest rates and financial fragility is often non-monotone. For example, a small increase in the return on illiquid investment (or a small increase in the term premium) may raise banks’ susceptibility to a run, while a larger increase would make the banking system more stable. The same is true for changes in short-term rates, holding the longer-term rates fixed. I provide a precise characterization of these comparative statics of financial fragility.     

Networks and market-based measures of systemic risk: the European banking system in the aftermath of the financial crisis

This article investigates the behaviour of the European banking system during the financial crises that occurred in the last decades. Among the various approaches for measuring systemic risk, we consider network analysis, which describes the linkages among financial institutions and their whole structure. We construct a time-varying network of the European banking system. Banks are linked to form a global interconnected system and they mutually influence one another in terms of risk. We model their reciprocal influence via a weighted and directed network, in which weights are related to risk measures that are based on equity returns. Then, we apply two network indicators to investigate the prominence of a bank in spreading and receiving risk from the others. The results enable us to capture many features of the banking system while identifying the global systemically important banks. Moreover, the results of the analysis over time show how interconnections change over periods that are characterized by various economic scenarios.

     

Indirect Convertibility,Equity‐Based Banking and Financial Stability

Banking reform proposals put forward in the wake of the recent financial crisis maintain that equity‐based banking would be stable and would prevent bank runs. This article argues that complementing this form of banking with an indirect convertibility monetary standard and thereby dispensing with base money would enhance financial stability further. Banks would not hold a distinctive asset (base money) that would be called upon by customers at short notice, thereby removing the possibility of bank runs. No discrepancy in value between the two sides of a bank's balance sheet would arise as its assets (securitised loans) would be marked to market. Unlike other recent contributions, the intermediation model outlined here is not ‘limited purpose’ in nature as banks would not be restricted in the form of lending activity they can pursue. Common sources of banking and financial instability – liquidity risk, solvency risk, moral hazard – would be absent.     

Commonality,macroeconomic factors and banking profitability

We study banks’ profitability in the US economy by means of dynamic factor models. Our results emphasize the importance of a few common cyclical market factors that greatly determine banking profitability. We conduct exhaustive regressions in a big data set of macroeconomic variables aiming to gain interpretability of our statistical factors. This allows us to identify three main macroeconomic factors underlying banking profitability: the financial burden of households and economic activity; household income and net worth and, in the case of ROA and ROE, stress in financial markets. We also provide an integrated perspective to analyse banks’ profitability dynamically and to inform policymakers concerned with financial stability issues, for which banks’ profitability is fundamental. Our models allow us to provide several rankings of vulnerable financial institutions considering the common market forces that we estimate. We emphasize the usefulness of such an exercise as a market-monitoring tool.     

Portfolio diversification and systemic risk in interbank networks

This paper contributes to a growing literature on the ambiguous effects of risk diversification. In our model, banks hold claims on each other’s liabilities that are marked-to-market on the individual financial leverage of the obligor. The probability of systemic default is determined using a passage-problem approach in a network context and banks are able to internalize the network externalities of contagion through their holdings. Banks do not internalize the social costs to the real economy of a systemic default of the banking system. We investigate the optimal diversification strategy of banks in the face of opposite and persistent economic trends that are ex-ante unknown to banks. We find that the optimal level of risk diversification may be interior or extremal depending on banks exposure the external assets and that a tension arises whereby individual incentives favor a banking system that is over-diversified with respect to the level of diversification that is desirable in the social optimum.     

A longitudinal study of net interest margin by bank asset size: 1992–2005

With the consolidation in banking over the past 20 years, interest in the comparative performance of big and small banks intensified. This study expands this research and examines the profitability of intermediation (measured by net interest margin or NIM) through a longitudinal model that uses panel data. Banks are assigned to one of five asset classes for each year of the 1992–2005 period, and the classes serve as the panels. Results show that interest rate effects on NIM vary by asset class, but the presence of economic effects and fixed effects on NIM depends on the model's specifications.     

商业银行发展碳金融业务的对策研究

当前,碳金融业务在国外银行业中的发展已日趋成熟,而在我国银行业中的发展却相对滞后。在研究国外银行业碳金融业务现状的基础上,运用SWOT法分析商业银行发展碳金融业务的优劣势、机会和威胁,并得出相关对策:一方面充分发挥优势;另一方面应加强政府扶持、健全碳交易市场,拓宽业务领域,防范业务风险,注重人才培养。     

商业银行操作风险浅析

银行业作为现代金融业的中心,其安全性及稳定性十分重要。这些年以来,经济的全球化进程不断的加快,银行所经营的业务涉及到的领域越来越广。规模持续的扩展,造成经营的复杂性的因素不断的增多。商业银行面临着越来越棘手的操作的风险。从我国来看,最近这些年的,由于操作不利使得各种重大的案件发生的越来越多。为促进我国的操作风险管理,需对我国操作风险的具体状况作出分析,然后根据相关特征情况作出比较精准的判断,准确了解操作风险,进而提出我国商业银行操作风险对策。     

Corporate governance and the market impact of the Financial Services Modernization act of 1999 on bank returns and trading volume

Recent deregulation of financial services by the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999, also known as the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLB), places more reliance on corporate governance to oversee the actions of financial institutions. We examine whether corporate governance variables explain bank shareholder reaction to GLB passage. We find that banks with better board oversight react favorably to the GLB and banks with less effective board monitoring react less favorably to the GLB. Banks with lower leverage, lower insider ownership, less board activity, a smaller board, fewer inside directors, and less visibility respond more positively to the GLB. Results indicate investor approval of the legislative effort to increase the role of corporate governance in the banking industry and affirm the importance of effective corporate oversight among financial institutions. The authors thank the reviewers for their insights and suggestions.     

Global bank complexity and financial fragility around the world

Using data for 123 countries from 1996 to 2020, we uncover the effect of foreign-owned banks’ geographic complexity on financial fragility in the context of financial liberalization. We compute a measure of foreign-owned banks’ geographic complexity for each country from data on the affiliate network of internationally active banking institutes. The financial effects of geographic complexity may help banks improve their survival by improving their solvency. After extensive testing for the sensitivity of the results, our main findings were threefold. First, a higher degree of geographic complexity of foreign-owned banks reduces the likelihood of a bank’s default, and these effects become more pronounced in low- and lower-middle-income countries. Second, the effects of financial liberalization vary across income groups. Third, the joint effects of foreign-owned banks’ geographic complexity and financial liberalization on financial fragility vary across forms of financial liberalization. Our findings have several policy implications: first, bank supervisors should consider the presence and structure of foreign bank ownership in their assessments; second, the government should take into account the level of economic development in choosing the proper form of financial liberalization; third, the government should promote financial freedom to strengthen the role of foreign-owned banks’ geographic complexity in alleviating financial fragility.     

Why Does the Negotiable Certificate of Deposit Matter for Chinese Banking?

The Negotiable Certificate of Deposit (NCD) is a major financial instrument in China; the value of outstanding Chinese NCDs was approximately RMB8 trillion (equivalent to USD1.2 trillion) in mid‐2017. This article reviews the most recent developments in the Chinese NCD, including its effect on interest rate pass‐through and money creation. Empirical results show that the introduction of the NCD in 2014 influenced the relationship between the policy rate and the lending rate of Chinese commercial banks, and the interest rate pass‐through from the policy rate to the lending rate of commercial banks improved subsequently. However, this process has also been accompanied by maturity mismatch, increasing leverage, and decreasing credit ratings for the assets of banks and other financial institutions. Consequently, systemic risk in the Chinese banking system has increased.     

Liquidity indicators,early warning signals in banks,and financial crises

This research compares the performance of three liquidity indicators, namely liquidity ratio (LiqR), liquidity creation (LiqC) and net stable funding difference (NSFD), for sending early warning signals for distressed banks. Recent evidence has shown that LiqR appears incapable of measuring the liquidity condition of banks. However, LiqC and NSFD have not yet been fully examined. Thus, which indicator is more useful in an early warning model becomes an interesting issue. We classify distressed banks as banks that have experienced a bank run, bailout, or failure. Sample data are collected from the United States and the European Union from before and after the financial crisis. We then estimate model predictive value using the sample before the crisis to predict liquidity shortages. Evidence shows that the academic (LiqC) and officially recommended indicators (NSFD) outperform LiqR as early warning signals. Furthermore, LiqC performs best when banks actively engage in income diversification but not fund diversification. Therefore, a well income-diversified bank with high LiqC tends to have high distress probability in the next period.     

Political regimes and bank interest margins

The political determinants of banks' profitability are yet to be fully explored in the political economy of finance literature. This article brings politics to the theoretical discussion and the empirical analysis of bank interest margins, arguing that differences in political regimes are crucial in accounting for variations in banking profits across countries. The paper argues that we should expect lower margins from financial intermediation in autocracies than in democracies because of an inherent credibility problem and a lack of oversight in the former. Limited by state-owned banks or regulations favoring cronies, the room for financial elites to develop independent political power to threaten the government should be lower in autocracies than in democracies. I test this hypothesis with nonparametric (matching) and parametric analyses, where the former is used to estimate the latter to lower model dependence. The results consistently show that banks' interest margins in autocracies are lower by some amount between -0.4 and -1.3. This association is also confirmed indirectly when we analyze the impact of banking competition. The existence of big banks in democracies is positively related to banks' profits from intermediation, while the opposite is true for autocracies.     

Emergence of a core-periphery structure in a simple dynamic model of the interbank market

This paper studies a simple dynamic model of interbank credit relationships. Starting from a given balance sheet structure of a banking system with a realistic distribution of bank sizes, the necessity of establishing interbank credit connections emerges from idiosyncratic liquidity shocks. Banks initially choose potential trading partners randomly, but over time form preferential relationships via an elementary reinforcement learning algorithm. As it turns out, the dynamic evolution of this system displays a formation of a core-periphery structure with mainly the largest banks assuming the roles of money center banks mediating between the liquidity needs of many smaller banks. Statistical analysis shows that this evolving interbank market shares the majority of the salient characteristics of interbank credit relationship that have been put forth in recent literature. Preferential interest rates for borrowers with strong attachment to a lender may prevent the system from becoming extortionary and guarantee the survival of the small peripherical banks.     

论个人住房贷款发展的困境、原因及化解

近期，国内商业银行出现了普遍的“额度荒”问题，大多研究认为这一现象是周期性和短期性的。但其实是商业银行经营的内外环境发生了根本的变化，如存贷款利率市场化加速，传统的房贷业务不适应银行经营环境的变化。房贷“额度荒”反映的是商业性金融追求盈利与政策性金融的冲突，本质上则是政策性住房银行缺失的结果。发达国家在位房需求增长较快时期均通过成立政纂性住房金融机构来满足住房融资需求，我国也要成立真正的政策性住房银行，这才是解决房贷困境的根本出路。     

Banking in computable general equilibrium economies

In this paper we develop a computable general equilibrium economy that models the banking sector explicitly. Banks intermediate between households and between the household sector and the government sector. Households borrow from banks to finance their purchases of houses and they lend to banks to save for retirement. Banks pool households' savings and they purchase interest-bearing government debt and non-interest-bearing reserves. We use this structure to answer two sets of questions: one normative in nature that evaluates the welfare costs of alternative monetary and tax policies, and one positive in nature that studies the real effects of following a procyclical interest-rate policy rule.     

Value-Driving Activities in Euro-Zone Banks

We develop and test accounting-based valuation models for commercial banks. We extend Begley et al.'s framework (2006) and propose a valuation model where goodwill is generated by virtually all commercial and investment banking activities. Key features of our model are: the development of a relation between future cash flows from fee income and the bank value that depends on lending, borrowing and off-balance sheet business; and the inclusion of proprietary investment and trading as value-driving activities. Empirical tests on a sample of Euro-zone banks from 1998 to 2006 provide the following evidence. Unrealised expected cash flows from fee income are the most important source of unrecorded goodwill. This is consistent with the increasing importance of revenue from the sale of financial services to banks' income. The contribution of fee income to goodwill is higher for banks with large deposits and new loans. Equity securities are a source of unrecorded goodwill, but the introduction of fair value accounting, with the adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), reduces their valuation role. Yet equity securities remain positively associated with unrecorded goodwill after IFRS adoption, suggesting that the fair value standards do not fully capture market expectations about future cash flows of investment assets.