国际货币体系的改革与人民币国际化探析

牙买加体系自1976年创立至今,一直为世界货币基金组织使用,其自身存在着诸多问题,例如美元在现行国际货币体系中获取的权利与承担的义务不对等,整个货币体系的决策机制偏向于美欧等发达国家和地区,对发展中国家不利等问题。因此,对现有国际货币体系实行改革势在必行,应加快推进建立多元化的国际货币体系,增加发展中国家在国际货币体系中的话语权,大力推进人民币的国际化发展进程。     

Is the US Dollar a Suitable Anchor for the Newly Proposed GCC Currency?

Responses of inflation and non‐oil output growth from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to monetary policy shocks from the United States (US) were estimated to determine whether there is evidence to support the US dollar as the anchor for the proposed unified currency. A structural vector autoregression identified with short‐run restrictions was employed for each country with Fed funds rate as the US monetary policy instrument, non‐oil output growth and inflation. The main results suggest that for inflation, the GCC countries show synchronised responses to monetary policy shocks from the US which are similar to inflation in the US, and for non‐oil output growth, there is no clear indication that US monetary policy can be as effective for the GCC countries as it is domestically. Consequently, importing US monetary policy via a dollar peg may guarantee only stable inflation for the GCC countries – not necessarily stable non‐oil output growth. If the non‐oil output response is made conscientiously – and there are concerns over the dollar’s ability to perform its role as a store of value – a basket peg with both the US dollar and the euro may be a sound alternative as confirmed by the variance decomposition analysis of our augmented SVAR with a proxy for the European short‐term interest rate.     

美国经常项目赤字的可持续性研究

近年来,美国巨额经常项目赤字和美元持续贬值引起了经济学界的强烈关注,一些经济学家发出了美元和国际货币体系崩溃的警告。在现行国际货币体系即以资产为本位的泛布雷顿森林体系下,中心国家美国和外围亚洲国家形成了双赢的局面。该体系与布雷顿森林体系相比具有更大的安全性和稳定性,美国能够承受更大规模的经常项目赤字,并由此获得了更为灵活的政策操作空间。在某种程度上,美国巨额经常项目赤字是其雄厚的金融和经济实力的体现。     

主权信用货币国际体系下对外资产低收益现象研究

借鉴基本因素均衡实际利率思想,构建对外资产基本因素均衡收益率缺口测算模型。实证结果表明:尽管美元计价资产具有高流动性、安全性,并且供给量充分,但中国、印度、巴西三国对外美元资产均衡收益率缺口为负,美元"过度特权"与本币实际汇率价值损失效应是缺口为负的两大原因。美元主导的单极国际货币体系下,中国等国家对外资产低收益是必然的,即使在多元主权信用货币国际体系下,该现象也不会得到显著改善。     

Global monetary policy under a dollar standard

This paper derives an optimal monetary policy in a world with a dollar standard, defined as an environment in which all traded goods prices are set in US dollars, so that exchange rate pass-through into the US price level is zero. We show that the US is essentially indifferent to exchange rate volatility, while the rest of the world places a high weight on exchange rate volatility. In a Nash equilibrium of the monetary policy game, US preferences dominate; the equilibrium is identical to one where the US alone chooses world monetary policy. Despite this, we find surprisingly that the US loses from the dollar's role as an international currency, since the absence of exchange rate pass-through leads to inefficient expenditure allocations within the US. Finally, we derive the conditions for a dollar standard to exist.     

美元霸权兴衰与逻辑演进

本文首先回顾了美元与国际货币的演化进程,诠释了美元霸权地位形成的路径,分析了美元作为经济武器能收割世界财富的缘由。其次,揭示了布雷顿森林体系解体后,美元仍然能收割世界财富的原因,说明了美国贸易逆差的实质。再次,分析了本次新冠疫情之后,美元霸权的延续可能会出现的一些颠覆性变化,以及美元作为主导货币地位的变化。最后,分析了国际货币体系未来会出现的几种情境,以及人民币在这一历史变局中的前景,并提出了中国在长周期应该采取的应对之策。     

The US Dollar and the Euro as International Currencies

For many decades the US dollar has remained unchallenged as the world’s dominant international currency. What is behind its persistent pre-eminence in the international monetary system and can this be expected to last? Could the euro rival or even surpass the dollar as the leading currency? If it did, what would be the consequences for Euroland?      

货币权力和国际货币体系的美元霸权

货币权力指各国在货币事务上独立决策并对其他国家实施影响的能力,包括自治力和影响力两个部分。由于中心国家的货币权力在国际货币体系的历史演变中越来越大,致使国际货币体系的不对称性日益显著。美元在牙买加体系中拥有空前的货币权力,这常被称为"美元霸权",美国次贷危机和国际金融海啸没有改变美元的霸权地位。     

Selecting cost-effective survey methods: Foot-in-door and prepaid monetary incentives

The cost-effectiveness of foot-in-door (FID) and prepaid monetary incentives (PMI) are investigated. We show conceptually that, there is a trade-off between maximizing response rate and maximizing respondents per dollar. Empirical results show response rate is maximized if a FID is used in combination with a $1.00 PMI (response rate= .43, respondents/dollar= .154). Respondents per dollar is maximized with a FID combined with a $.25 PMI (response rate= .42, respondents/ dollar= .206). Also, FID and PMI do not seem to affect response, response speed, or item omission. Finally, there is evidence that FID and PMI interact negatively on response rate.     

在云南省推进人民币区域化的可行性研究

国际金融危机的爆发再次显示了以美元为主导的国际货币体系的不稳定性,如何降低这一体系对于中国的不利影响,推进人民币区域化应是对策之一。中国的经济实力可以保障这一战略的推行,中国对东盟的贸易逆差有利于人民币进入东盟市场;云南省具有推进人民币区域化的诸多优势,譬如云南省和周边国家经贸关系密切、云南省政府和金融部门具有管理人民币结算的经验以及可以获得诸多政策支持等。同时,也面临国家间货币合作需要进一步加强、货币兑换障碍等问题,但总体而言优势大于劣势,并且劣势可以逐渐被解决,因此在云南省推进人民币区域化具有很大的可行性。     

Monetary crisis and commodity markets

The monetary policy discussion centering around the dollar and the economic policy measures of the US Administration have been causing great confusion In some of the world’s commodity markets. The general uncertainty Is likely to persist In the markets In 1972.     

The European Monetary System and international currency questions

As the recent struggles connected with the readjustment of exchange rates within the European Monetary System have shown, the relatively unproblematic “running in” period of the EMS, which was supposed to be a constructive contribution to the creation of a more viable international monetary system, is over. Dr. Matthes doubts that the EMS can live up to the original expectations and argues in favour of a restoration of the US dollar to its function as the key currency of the Western monetary system.     

人民币有望成为国际结算货币

08年美国次贷危机演变为全球化的金融危机,美元疲软,人民币升值,同时11年日本大地震元气大伤,直接导致日圆国际支付能力的下降。伴随近年中国经济的发展,地区影响力增强,为中国谋求世界经济大国的地位,建立新的货币体系提供了机遇,因此建立以人民币为中心的世界货币体系,势在必行。     

The Euro versus the U.S. dollar: an overview

The creation of the euro will prove to be a remarkable development in international relations and carries far-reaching implications for the international monetary system. The objectives of this paper are four-fold. The first objective is to provide a brief overview of previous monetary unions in Europe. It covers three surviving monetary unions and two that failed. The second objective is to provide a review of major developments leading to the creation of the euro. The third objective is to analyze the opportunities and threats associated with the euro. The fourth objective is to provide an overview of the on-going debate as to whether the euro will be a serious challenger to the U.S. dollar.     

Sterilisation and Monetary Control by the GCC Member Countries

The prevailing dollar peg of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the absence of any significant current and capital account restrictions led some to believe that these countries have lost monetary independence. However, the paper presents evidence that interest rates of the GCC countries did not converge to the interest rates of the US implying that the assets of the GCC countries are not perfect substitutes to the US assets. This imperfect asset substitutability has allowed the GCC countries to manoeuvre their monetary policies and the central banks of the GCC countries have had some control over their money growth rates by sterilising the changes in international reserves. Results indicate that the monetary authorities of these countries used domestic credit policy to attain some domestic policy objective while engaging in sterilised foreign exchange intervention. This result implies that the proposed GCC central bank should be able to maintain the monetary independence as a group and can reap the benefit of monetary efficiency of the proposed Gulf Monetary Union.     

Stabilisation of the monetary system

The devaluation of the British Pound and the most speculation in gold and the dollar have lead to a hectic activity on the part of the monetary authorities in the industrial countries of the West. It is unlikely that anybody should have regarded the splitting up of the gold market—necessary though it was as a counter-measure—as a panacea which would prove efficacious in the long run. At the meeting in Stockholm of the Club of Ten the attempt was therefore made to parry the diminshing importance of gold within the monetary system by a speedier activation of the Special Drawing Rights—“the paper gold”. This constituted without doubt a decisive step towards rationalising and stabilising the international monetary system.     

Exchange rates,money, and relative prices: The dollar-pound in the 1920s

This paper applies the monetary approach to exchange rate determination to the analysis of the monthly dollar/pound exchange rate during the period preceding the return of Britain to gold in 1925. The analytical framework emphasizes that the exchange rate is influenced by real and monetary factors. Special attention is given to the relationship between the exchange rate and the relative price of traded to non-traded goods. The estimated elasticity of the exchange rate with respect to this relative price is shown to be about 0.4 which provides an independent measure of the relative share of spending on non-traded goods.     

Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?

Two major approaches to identifying the equilibrium exchange rate are implemented. First, the concept of purchasing power parity (PPP) is tested and used to define the equilibrium real exchange rate for the Hong Kong dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Korean won, Malaysian ringgit, Philippine peso, Singapore dollar, New Taiwanese dollar and the Thai baht. The calculated PPP rates are then used to evaluate whether these seven East Asian currencies were overvalued. A variety of econometric techniques and price deflators are used. As of May 1997, the HK$, baht, ringgit and peso were overvalued according to this criterion. The evidence is mixed regarding the Indonesian rupiah and NT$. Second, a monetary model of exchange rates, augmented by a proxy variable for productivity trends, is estimated for five currencies. An overvaluation for the rupiah and baht is indicated, although only in the latter case is the overvaluation substantial (17%). The won, Singapore dollar and especially the NT$ appear undervalued according to these models.     

Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Because many authors have proposed stimulating the ailing Japanese economy by monetary expansion and yen depreciation, we explore the repercussions of depreciating the yen against the dollar on the other East Asian economies – which largely peg to the dollar. Since 1980, economic integration among Japan's neighbours – China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand – has intensified and (except for China and Singapore) their business cycles have been highly synchronised. These cycles have been closely linked to fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate – through changes in the export competitiveness, inflows of foreign direct investment and intra‐Asian income effects. We show that a major yen devaluation would have a negative impact on incomes in other East Asian economies and that it is not a sensible policy option for Japan.     

China Calls for Overhaul of International Monetary System

After the outbreak of the global financial crisis, there has been an outcry .from developing countries, especially the so-called BRIC （Brazil, Russia, India and China）, that a “diversified”international monetary system should be put in place. At their first formal summit meeting held on June, the leaders of Brazil, Russia,