Communication equilibria with partially verifiable types

This paper studies the set of equilibria that can be achieved by adding general communication systems to Bayesian games in which some information can be certified or, equivalently, in which players’ types are partially verifiable. Certifiability of information is formalized by a set of available reports for each player that varies with the true state of the world. Given these state-dependent sets of reports, we characterize canonical equilibria for which generalized versions of the revelation principle are valid. Communication equilibria and associated canonical representations are obtained as special cases when no information can be certified.     

Renter Mobility and Multifamily Mortgage Default Risk

Renter mobility is a major concern for the performance of multifamily mortgages. If enough new renters are not found to replace those that move, vacancy rates can quickly escalate to where cash flows are negative and property mortgages are in jeopardy. In this study we examine how differences in renter mobility patterns by property type can affect mortgage credit risk within submarkets of an MSA. We expand the default model developed by Goldberg and Capone (2000) to use unique distributions of rental unit turnover and vacancy durations for large and small multifamily rental properties. Monte Carlo simulations then show how credit risk on multifamily mortgages is affected if owners of small properties are able to keep tenants longer than owners of larger properties can. The model can be used to explore other potential intra-MSA differences in property market dynamics.     

Mechanism design goes to war: peaceful outcomes with interdependent and correlated types

In this paper, we consider the possibility of identifying peaceful mechanisms such as bargaining protocols, international institutions, or norms that can enable countries to settle disputes in the absence of binding contracts. In particular, we are interested in the existence of mechanisms with zero probability of war. Here, we focus on situations where the countries’ payoffs to war are interdependent or correlated and where efficient settlements are not required but subsidies are unavailable. Most importantly, countries can choose to go to war at any time and can use information learned from the negotiation process in making this choice. We characterize the conditions under which no peaceful mechanisms exist and discuss how weakening our war consistency condition can change this result. We thank Massimo Morelli, Adam Meirowitz, Hein Goemans and two anonymous reviewers for helpful advice and comments and John Duggan and Dan Bernhardt for encouraging this direction of inquiry.     

Laying the groundwork-an analysis of how to get started with operations analysis

To make operations analysis a pervasive force in education, it is as important to be systematic and disciplined in deciding which projects to undertake as it does to show these virtues once we have selected a problem and are pressing for a solution. Progress means thinking about objectives, including the objective of demonstrating that operations analysis is relevant for education and of establishing a climate of acceptance for the new methods. Progress means concern for people and politics and an eye for initial projects that are hard to bungle. We have little to gain in pitting scarce talent and betting the reputation of operations analysis on situations which we can do little to improve. Meaningful solutions, for the administrator, are solutions that he can manage politically and that do not require impossible increases in staff or budgets to implement. Shrewdness in choosing projects that fit what we can do with operations analysis, though, does not mean picking insignificant problems. Operations analysis must understand the larger issues in American education and set its priorities to fit. We can better afford honest failure than irrelevance.     

Non-causality in bivariate binary time series

In this paper we develop a dynamic discrete-time bivariate probit model, in which the conditions for Granger non-causality can be represented and tested. The conditions for simultaneous independence are also worked out. The model is extended in order to allow for covariates, representing individual as well as time heterogeneity. The proposed model can be estimated by Maximum Likelihood. Granger non-causality and simultaneous independence can be tested by Likelihood Ratio or Wald tests. A specialized version of the model, aimed at testing Granger non-causality with bivariate discrete-time survival data is also discussed. The proposed tests are illustrated in two empirical applications.     

Yardstick Competition and Quality

This paper explores the consequences for quality of introducing yardstick competition in duopoly when a verifiable quality indicator is available. Yardstick competition can be implemented by a menu of transfers that are linear in the cost differential between the two firms and in quality. Cost- and quality incentives are stronger in larger firms when improvements are highly valued by consumers and firms can significantly influence quality. Expenditures on quality improvement can increase or decrease following the introduction of yardstick competition. The crucial factor is the likelihood ratio of productivity between the two firms, not productivity differences.     

Corporate implementation of socially controversial CSR initiatives: Implications for human resource management

An organization's success in recruiting, selecting, and retaining employees can be attributed, in part, to reactions to a firm's CSR activities. Today, organizations appear to be more frequently pursuing CSR initiatives that are related to social issues. Unlike CSR initiatives which are unrelated to social issues, those that are attached to social causes are more likely to be perceived as controversial. Consequently, how individuals view such actions can impact their perceptions of the firm and may lead to changes in individual behavior. Grounding this work in social identity theory, we explore the effect controversial CSR actions can have on HRM functions. The goal of this effort is to explore and delineate how this shift in CSR may alter the nature of the CSR-HRM relationship and to examine the potential implications for HRM practice. Future directions for research and HRM practice are discussed.     

The spatial structure of production with a Leontief technology

The structure of the optimal spatial pattern of production is studied when there are interdependencies among production units which can be described by a Leontief technology, and when there is a single marketplace of final demand, the CBD. Transportation cost is proportional to distance. It is shown that the various goods are produced in rings which can be ranked by distance from the CBD independently of the levels of final demand. Furthermore shipment of goods for meeting intermediate and final demand can only be in the direction of the CBD and no shipment of goods towards the periphery can occur. A finite algorithm is given for the construction of the optimal pattern and for determining a system of f.o.b. prices and land rents which sustain it as a competitive equilibrium.     

Identification of volatility proxies as expectations of squared financial returns

Volatility proxies like realised volatility (RV) are extensively used to assess the forecasts of squared financial returns produced by volatility models. But are volatility proxies identified as expectations of the squared return? If not, then the results of these comparisons can be misleading, even if the proxy is unbiased. Here, a tripartite distinction is introduced between strong, semi-strong, and weak identification of a volatility proxy as an expectation of the squared return. The definition implies that semi-strong and weak identification can be studied and corrected for via a multiplicative transformation. Well-known tests can be used to check for identification and bias, and Monte Carlo simulations show that they are well sized and powerful—even in fairly small samples. As an illustration, 12 volatility proxies used in three seminal studies are revisited. Half of the proxies do not satisfy either semi-strong or weak identification, but their corrected transformations do. It is then shown how correcting for identification can change the rankings of volatility forecasts.     

An approximation method to derive confidence intervals for quantiles with some applications

Standard jackknife confidence intervals for a quantile Q _y (β) are usually preferred to confidence intervals based on analytical variance estimators due to their operational simplicity. However, the standard jackknife confidence intervals can give undesirable coverage probabilities for small samples sizes and large or small values of β. In this paper confidence intervals for a population quantile based on several existing estimators of a quantile are derived. These intervals are based on an approximation for the cumulative distribution function of a studentized quantile estimator. Confidence intervals are empirically evaluated by using real data and some applications are illustrated. Results derived from simulation studies show that proposed confidence intervals are narrower than confidence intervals based on the standard jackknife technique, which assumes normal approximation. Proposed confidence intervals also achieve coverage probabilities above to their nominal level. This study indicates that the proposed method can be an alternative to the asymptotic confidence intervals, which can be unknown in practice, and the standard jackknife confidence intervals, which can have poor coverage probabilities and give wider intervals.     

综合蓄热法混凝土冬季施工表面温度实测及分析

在严寒地区,建筑工程组织冬季施工,可以加快施工进度,缩短工程建设周期;混凝土工程在极限气温不低于-15°C、平均气温不低于-5°C时,采用综合蓄热法进行混凝土冬季施工,投入费用不多,措施简单可行。本文通过就其工程混凝土在冬季施工表面温度实测及分析进行论述,仅供参考。     

On the ingredients for bubble formation: Informed traders and communication

Bubbles in asset markets have been documented in numerous experiments. Most experiments in which bubbles occur feature a declining fundamental value. This feature has been criticized for being atypical of real financial markets. Here, we experimentally study other ingredients for bubble formation that are common in such markets, namely the existence of inside information and communication among traders. We find that bubbles and mirages can occur if these additional ingredients are present. In particular, the mere possibility that some traders are better informed than others can create bubbles. Surprisingly, communication turns out to be counterproductive for bubble formation.     

Using Remote Sensing for Agricultural Statistics

Remote sensing can be a valuable tool for agricultural statistics when area frames or multiple frames are used. At the design level, remote sensing typically helps in the definition of sampling units and the stratification, but can also be exploited to optimise the sample allocation and size of sampling units. At the estimator level, classified satellite images are generally used as auxiliary variables in a regression estimator or for estimators based on confusion matrixes. The most often used satellite images are LANDSAT-TM and SPOT-XS. In general, classified or photo-interpreted images should not be directly used to estimate crop areas because the proportion of pixels classified into the specific crop is often strongly biased. Vegetation indexes computed from satellite images can give in some cases a good indication of the potential crop yield.     

Reducing Missing Data in Surveys: An Overview of Methods

Although item nonresponse can never be totally prevented, it can be considerably reduced, and thereby provide the researcher with not only more useable data, but also with helpful auxiliary information for a better imputation and adjustment. To achieve this an optimal data collection design is necessary. The optimization of the questionnaire and survey design are the main tools a researcher has to reduce the number of missing data in any such survey. In this contribution a concise typology of missing data patterns and their sources of origin are presented. Based on this typology, the mechanisms responsible for missing data are identified, followed by a discussion on how item nonresponse can be prevented.     

Statistical Implementations of Agent-Based Demographic Models

A variety of demographic statistical models exist for studying population dynamics when individuals can be tracked over time. In cases where data are missing due to imperfect detection of individuals, the associated measurement error can be accommodated under certain study designs (e.g. those that involve multiple surveys or replication). However, the interaction of the measurement error and the underlying dynamic process can complicate the implementation of statistical agent-based models (ABMs) for population demography. In a Bayesian setting, traditional computational algorithms for fitting hierarchical demographic models can be prohibitively cumbersome to construct. Thus, we discuss a variety of approaches for fitting statistical ABMs to data and demonstrate how to use multi-stage recursive Bayesian computing and statistical emulators to fit models in such a way that alleviates the need to have analytical knowledge of the ABM likelihood. Using two examples, a demographic model for survival and a compartment model for COVID-19, we illustrate statistical procedures for implementing ABMs. The approaches we describe are intuitive and accessible for practitioners and can be parallelised easily for additional computational efficiency.     

On assessing the construct validity of two multidimensional constructs: Occupational commitment and occupational entrenchment

Occupational commitment and occupational (career) entrenchment are two multidimensional constructs in the “early development” stages. The construct validity evidence to date for each multidimensional construct is constructively critiqued. Suggestions for building stronger measures of occupational commitment and occupational entrenchment are offered. It is argued that using longitudinal research designs and revisiting the nomological net can provide stronger discriminant validity evidence for each multidimensional construct. Finally, research simultaneously studying both constructs is needed. Preliminary work suggests that occupational entrenchment can be integrated within the continuance dimension of occupational commitment. Human resource implications for studying such occupational-level constructs are discussed.     

动物园规划设计新思考

园林建筑物常作景点处理的方法主要是园林建筑仿木纹,园林建筑仿木纹既可作为景观以供游客观赏,同时游客可借助其来观赏园中景物,从而生成了动物园对建筑美学方面的要求。     

Can money matter for interest rate policy?

In this paper it is shown that money can matter for macroeconomic stability under interest rate policy when transactions frictions are non-negligible. We develop a sticky price model with a shopping time function, which induces the marginal utility of consumption to depend on the (predetermined) stock of money held at the beginning of the period. Equilibrium stability and uniqueness are then ensured by a passive interest rate policy, whereas activeness is associated with an explosive equilibrium. By reacting to changes in beginning-of-period real balances, the central bank can restore stability. Interest rates further depend on lagged real balances even if the central bank acts in an entirely forward-looking way, as under discretionary optimization. If the model is revised such that end-of-period money provides transaction services, money can in principle be neglected for a stabilizing interest rate policy. Discretionary monetary policy is, however, likely to be associated with equilibrium indeterminacy, which can be avoided if interest rates are set contingent on beginning-of-period real balances.