Poverty and Political Risk

The paper explains the negative correlation between developing countries' per capita incomes and measures of political risk by relating a government's decision to tax foreign investors to distributional interests in the host country's population. Using a dynamic general-equilibrium model in which agents make irreversible investments abroad to insure against country-specific technology shocks, it is shown that the political risk for foreign investors is prohibitive if the host country's initial per capita income is too low and if the benefits of international diversification are not high enough to generate a sufficiently strong opposition against discriminatory taxation.     

Water as an investment: liquid yet illiquid!

The water industry is in great need of further large investments to address existing severe water shortages worldwide which requires the participation of private sector investors. This industry is heavily infrastructure based and is therefore saddled with fixed assets-in-place or illiquid assets. This exposes the industry to what is termed as ‘illiquidity risk’, and hence, investors in this industry should be compensated for bearing this risk with an appropriate return premium (i.e. extra return). In this study, we provide evidence as to whether illiquidity risk indeed significantly affects returns in this industry. We examine the case of all 76 firms that compose the five major global water indices. After controlling for other factors that impact on returns, our results suggest that asset illiquidity is positively associated with stock returns. Specifically, water firms with a larger proportion of illiquid assets-in-place are observed to have greater stock returns than those with a smaller proportion of illiquid assets. Our results have important implications for the financing of water-related projects particularly those which involve the participation of investors from the private sector.     

Focusing on volatility information instead of portfolio weights as an aid to investor decisions

When faced with the challenge of forming a portfolio containing a risky and a risk-free asset, investors tend to apply the same portfolio weights independently of the volatility of the risky asset. This “percentage heuristic” can lead to different levels of portfolio risk when the same investor is presented with a more or a less risky asset. Using four experiments, we show that asking investors to choose the return distribution for their portfolio while keeping the exact portfolio weights unknown leads to greater similarity in levels of portfolio volatility (across different levels of risk of the risky asset) than asking investors to choose this distribution while additionally facing the portfolio weights. Higher consistency in risk taking is obtained both between and within test subjects.     

Optimal portfolio choices using financial leverage

This paper investigates the role of leverage in determining the investor's optimal asset allocation over multiperiod investment horizons. To do this, we allow investors to lever their financial position by borrowing from credit markets. GMM methods are used to estimate and test the optimal portfolio weights and individual's optimal choice of financial leverage. These optimal choices are assumed to be parametric functions of a set of state variables describing the evolution of the economy. The empirical application of this methodology to a portfolio of cash, bonds and stocks reveals that a) financial leverage limits the reaction of investors to changes in the investment opportunity set; b) individuals increase leverage during recessions and deleverage in expansionary periods; c) optimal portfolio weights and financial leverage are negatively related to the degree of investor's risk aversion and positively related to the investment horizon.     

Modeling volatility and conditional correlations between socially responsible investments,gold and oil

Socially responsible investing (SRI) is one of the fastest growing areas of investing. While there is a considerable literature comparing SRI to various benchmarks, very little is known about the volatility dynamics of socially responsible investing. In this paper, multivariate GARCH models are used to model volatilities and conditional correlations between a stock price index comprised of socially responsible companies, oil prices, and gold prices. The dynamic conditional correlation model is found to fit the data the best and used to generate dynamic conditional correlations, hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights. From a risk management perspective, SRI offers very similar results in terms of dynamic conditional correlations, hedge ratios, and optimal portfolio weights as investing in the S&P 500. For example, SRI investors can expect to pay a similar amount to hedge their investment with oil or gold as investors in the S&P 500 would pay. These results can help investors and portfolio managers make more informed investment decisions.     

Should emerging market investors buy commodities?

One reason that investors hold commodities is to receive diversification benefits. However, while an extensive set of existing studies demonstrate diversification benefits when investors hold international stocks or bonds, they are generally silent on the implications of holding commodities. Using an asset pricing framework, we investigate the benefits to investors from holding commodities, both individually and in portfolios. Generally, commodity and stock markets are integrated, although there are time-varying benefits to investors that are subject to sample period selection and investment horizon. We show that Asian investors receive positive risk adjusted returns in gold and rice markets but not in any of the other commodity markets investigated. The risk adjusted returns are time-varying: during the Asian financial crisis risk adjusted returns were negative – a penalty for investing in commodities – whereas during the global financial crisis the reverse was true and investors earned positive excess returns. The time-varying nature of the benefits that arise from diversification in commodities and their breakdown during periods of crisis, highlight the problems that investors may face when using commodities for long-term investment in addition to traditional holdings of stocks and bonds.     

中国上市公司治理结构的实证研究

我国上市公司的市场价值与其治理结构有无联系?投资者愿为治理良好的公司付出多大的溢价?本文旨在对上述两大问题进行全面和系统的实证研究,揭示当前上市公司存在的治理弊病,为建立具有中国特色的公司治理体系提供依据。为此,我们充分考虑了公司治理的内外部机制,并结合中国的市场环境,归纳出一系列变量来描述公司治理在我国的具体实践。基于这个变量体系,我们运用主元因素分析法编制了一个可反映上市公司治理水平的综合指标——G指标。我们的实证研究发现:( 1 )治理水平高的企业其市场价值也高;( 2 )投资者愿为治理良好的公司付出相当可观的溢价。     

PORTFOLIO SELECTION BETWEEN A MATURE MARKET AND SELECTED EMERGING MARKETS INDICES IN THE PRESENCE OF STRUCTURAL BREAKS

The paper examines the influence of the structural breaks on the optimal weights, hedge ratios and hedge effectiveness index (HEI) of risk‐minimizing portfolios composed of S&P500 and selected emerging markets’ indices from East Europe, Asia and South America. We employ a bivariate DCC‐EGARCH models without and with structural breaks and we find better estimation features when structural breaks are included in the model. However, we do not find evidence that insertion of structural breaks increases portfolio hedging performances. The differences that exist between optimal weights, hedge ratios and HEI values are so small that tangible economic benefit for international investors do not exist.     

Host country's governance and the size of foreign investors

We find that smaller foreign investors are more sensitive to the quality of host country's governance than larger investors. This may be the case as smaller foreign firms have less bargaining power and are more sensitive to uncertainty and risk.     

风险投资家的最优激励契约模型研究--一种基于逆向选择和道德风险条件下的博弈模型分析

为减少风险投资融资中风险投资家的逆向选择和道德风险,风险投资者必须设立一套有效的激励机制来让风险投资家选择,从而根据风险投资家选择的结果来甄别其真实能力类型,同时又能激励其努力工作。文章建立了风险投资家能力类型和努力都是不可观测条件下的最优激励契约模型,并根据显示原理,利用最优控制理论求出了最优解进而进行了分析。得出的结论是:最优激励契约能使高能力风险投资家乐于选择具有高强度激励、低固定收入和风险小的项目,同时又能激励其签约后更加努力工作。     

我国住房抵押贷款支持证券的久期测度研究

本文在研究久期测度理论的基础上,归纳了国外通行的住房抵押贷款支持证券的久期测度方法。结合我国当前金融市场现状,对通行的久期测度方法进行了修正,为我国机构投资者选择适当的住房抵押贷款支持证券的久期测度方法提出了建议。     

防范离岸公司不正当经营之对策

随着国际经济一体化的发展,目前国内越来越多企业都在国际避税地注册了离岸公司。各种利益的驱使,使越来越多的投资者和投机者注册离岸公司,然而这种离岸经营在某种程度上加剧了资本外逃,减少了国家的税收,造成了国有资产的流失,滋长了腐败。为此,应注重国际合作,加强对离岸金融中心的监管,适度限制有关机构在内地开展离岸金融服务。     

Performance and diversification benefits of foreign-equity ETFs in emerging markets

This study provides a comprehensive review of the risk-return characteristics, performance and international diversification benefits of an uncharted fast-growing segment of the global exchange-traded fund (ETF) market by examining 17 foreign-equity ETFs traded in 6 emerging markets. The results indicate that the sample ETFs domiciled in these economies perform poorly providing relatively low returns while exposing emerging market investors to substantial total and systematic risks. In addition, these ETFs are found to be more sensitive to downside risk, making them relatively more vulnerable to market downturns. Although the foreign-equity ETFs are designed to provide investors with full international diversification benefits, we find that they are significantly affected by their local market conditions and sentiments, making them ineffective international diversification tools.     

Private sector involvement in the resolution of financial crises: How do markets react?

To correct the disincentives of liquidity assistance during financial crises, the official sector attempts to involve the private sector in the resolution of debt crises. This paper empirically tests the reaction of investors to announcements of private sector involvement (PSI). For this purpose, we disentangle shifts in risk premia incorporated in excess returns on emerging market bonds into changes in risk and shifts in the price of risk. A regime-switching ARCH-M model is employed to separate two regimes with respect to the market price of risk. While PSI has no effect on risk, it is shown that the likelihood of switching to a state with a high price of risk rises in response to PSI announcements. Thus, the results indicate that burden sharing was credible and, hence, effective.     

网络借贷中羊群效应的存在性、驱动机制与投资者投资效率*

本文探究了网络借贷中羊群效应的存在性、背后的驱动机制以及对投资者投资效率的影响。实证结果表明，在控制了标的流标风险和时间固定效应后，我国网络借贷投资者群体中存在显著的羊群效应。进一步，标的羊群效应程度与借款人信息以及投资者类型紧密相关，借款人的还款能力越低，参与投资的投资者风险厌恶程度越低，则该标的的羊群效应越显著，说明羊群效应是“风险厌恶程度较低的投资者期望通过模仿他人的投资选择来消除由于信息不对称带来的违约风险”造成的结果。最后，网络借贷中的羊群效应有利于提升投资者的投资效率，具体表现在羊群效应提高了投资者成功投资的概率，并且有助于投资者在低质量标的中将资金投资到潜在违约风险更低的标的之中。     

Fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making for evaluating mutual fund strategies

Investors often need to evaluate investment strategies according to their own subjective preferences based upon various criteria. This situation can be regarded as a Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (FMCDM) problem. The purpose of this study is to propose an FMCDM approach with fuzzy integral. This approach relaxes the independence assumption among criteria for the evaluation of the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problems, which is oftentimes the basic assumption in applying hierarchical system for evaluating the strategies of selecting investment style. We also employ Triangular Fuzzy Numbers (TFNs) to represent the decision-makers’ subjective preferences on the criteria, as well as for the criteria measurements to evaluate mutual funds investment style. To achieve this objective, first, we employ factor analysis to extract four independent common factors from those criteria. Second, we construct the evaluation frame using hierarchical system composed of four common factors with 16 evaluation criteria, and then derive the relative weights with respect to the considered criteria. Third, the synthetic utility value corresponding to each mutual fund's investment style is aggregated by the fuzzy weights with fuzzy performance values. Finally, we compare with empirical data and find that the model of FMCDM predicts the rate of return very accurately in certain ranges of λ, hence the nonadditive fuzzy integral technique is an effective method for evaluating mutual funds’ strategy.     

Cutting-edge technologies

National and international hot fusion policies have reached a policy nexus. Scientific and intellectual satisfaction is no longer sufficient to provide the motive force or the financial will needed to create viable commercial fusion. Yet market pull is still too weak to attract investors and commercial interests. Active and long-term public policy participation is the only solution. With much argument over the economic justification and strategic importance of on-going fusion research, this paper contributes to that debate with a discussion of fusion's progress, politico-economic importance and future development, with particular reference to current national and international activities. Technological problems of large-scale collaboration, actor roles and the rising strategic interests in these areas are highlighted, with a conclusion that such projects need to engage the public at a wider and broader level to help provide justification for their continued funding as well as heeding the lessons of previous large-scale international projects and avoiding national unilateralism.     

Skew Selection: Nature Favors a Trickle-Down Distribution of Resources in Ants

Synopsis: According to skew selection, ant queens are neither ruthlessly selfish nor blindly altruistic; they are shrewd investors. The goal of shrewd investors is not to win the game, but to continue play over evolutionary time. Skew selection describes a set of investment strategies employed by players such as ant queens to keep the game going. First, ant queens acquire excess resources—more than they need for immediate survival and reproduction. Second, queens invest a portion of their excess resources in personal capital to maintain dominant status. Third, queens also invest a portion of excess resources in low-quality offspring to gain group capital. Fourth, when investing in group capital, resources are distributed in a trickle-down fashion to maintain the largest number of diminishing-quality offspring possible. The trickle-down redistribution allows the shrewd queen to increase group size (safety in numbers) and, at the same time, maintain individual status (safety in position). According to skew selection, queens invest in low-quality offspring (sterile workers) to buffer hereself and her high-quality offspring from agents of death such as war, predation or disease. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Mineral Leasing Policy: Competitive Bidding and the Resource Rent Tax Given Various Responses to Risk*

This paper considers the choice between lump-sum bidding and a tax conditional on net present value (of which the Resource Rent Tax is a practical example) as methods of collecting rent from mining projects. It demonstrates that there is an optimal combination of the two methods and that the relative emphasis to be placed on each depends heavily on the manner in which investors take risk into account. Four stylized ways in which investors and governments respond to risk are examined and, in addition to the more familiar types of risk, sovereign risk is introduced. The paper argues for the placing of relatively heavy emphasis on the conditional tax.     

Investment horizon effect on asset allocation between value and growth strategies

How does the optimal risk exposure of assets change as their investment horizons increase? Does this impact investment portfolio decision-making, in particular, optimal asset allocation between value and growth strategies over various investment horizons? This paper adopts a new approach to address these questions by examining portfolio allocation between value and growth stocks over various investment horizons. This new approach is based on wavelet analysis, which decomposes the returns of a particular investment strategy across multiple investment horizons. The key empirical results show that the success of pursuing the value strategy (short-selling growth stocks and going long on value stocks) is impacted by the approach used to classify value and growth stock returns. We explore two common alternatives: Fama-French versus Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500/Barra portfolios. The results using Fama-French portfolios show that as the investment horizon increases, the optimal mean allocation of investors tilts heavily away from growth stocks, particularly for lower and moderate levels of risk aversion. Interestingly, for S&P 500/Barra portfolios the allocation weights between value and growth do not vary much.