After the Green Revolution Sustainable and equitable agricultural development

Despite impressive results, the Green Revolution has encountered major problems of equity, stability and sustainability, calling for a ‘new phase’ of agricultural research and development. In this article four indicators of agricultural performance—productivity, stability, sustainability and equitability —are defined. Agro-ecosystems are described as a hierarchy ascending from the level of the individual plant or animal all the way to national systems linked by international trade, and it is argued that development cannot be based on any one level. This is demonstrated with a discussion of international constraints on sustainable and equitable development, the necessary national policies, and the needs of rural households. In conclusion, the article summarizes the research and development priorities for the new phase of development.     

Productivity Growth and Sustainability in Post-Green Revolution Agriculture: The Case of the Indian and Pakistan Punjabs

This article attempts to determine the long-term productivityand sustainability of irrigated agriculture in the Indian andPakistan Punjabs by measuring trends in total factor productivityfor production systems in both states since the advent of theGreen Revolution. These measurements over time and across systemshave resulted in three major findings. First, there were widespatial and temporal variations between the two Punjabs. Althoughoutput growth and crop yields were much higher in the IndianPunjab, productivity growth was higher by only a small margin.Moreover, the lowest growth in productivity took place duringthe initial Green Revolution period (as opposed to the laterintensification and post–Green Revolution periods) andin the wheat-rice system in both states. The time lag betweenadoption of Green Revolution technologies and realization ofproductivity gains is related to learning-induced efficiencygains, better utilization of capital investments over time,and problems with the standard methods of productivity measurementthat downwardly bias estimates, particularly during the GreenRevolution period. Second, input growth accounted for most ofthe output growth in both Punjabs during the period under study.Third, intensification, especially in the wheat-rice system,resulted in resource degradation in both Punjabs. Data fromPakistan show that resource degradation reduced overall productivitygrowth from technical change and from education and infrastructureinvestment by one-third. These findings imply the need for policiesthat promote agricultural productivity and sustainability throughpublic investments in education, roads, and research and extension;and that reduce resource degradation by decreasing or eliminatingsubsidies that encourage intensification of inputs.      

Can India meet the increasing food demand by 2020?

India's Green Revolution has evolved at an environmental cost, which is perhaps irreversible. The economic growth has become increasingly dependant upon the use of non-renewable resources such as chemical fertilizers, pesticides, oil and coal. India now follows a rapid development path, which is similar to the past growth patterns of most western nations. Whether or not such a growth blueprint would be environmentally sustainable under Indian conditions is questionable since rapid economic growth tends to positively influence environmental degradation. India is a land of villages with 700 million people living in over 600,000 villages, many in the enormous drylands. As the Tata Visiting Chair, I had the opportunity to study the rural development projects implemented by a non-profit agency (Sadguru Foundation) that harvests rainwater to improve irrigation and livelihood of rural people using check dams and lift irrigation systems in western India. This paper has examined how India's remote drylands can be transformed to achieve a ‘Sustainable Green Revolution’ to meet India's future food demands without creating serious negative consequences to natural environment. If the model highlighted in this paper is adopted all across the vast drylands of India and other parts of Asia, Africa and South America, it would certainly increase agricultural output, guarantee future food security, protect natural resources, and above all exterminate the greatest insult to human dignity—poverty!     

Poverty in Palanpur

The meaning and identification of poverty are examined usingthree indicators of standard of living in the North Indian villageof Palanpur. The first is intended as a measure of "apparentprosperity" based on the personal assessments of investigatorsafter intensive field work in the village over the full agriculturalyear 1983–84. The other two are income in 1983–84,and a measure of permanent income obtained by averaging incomesfrom four surveys conducted over a twenty-six-year interval.A comparison of these three indicators shows that income measuredin any one year may give a misleading impression of the incidenceof poverty. The risk of poverty for households is calculated.Vulnerability is high among low-caste households and those whichare involved in agricultural labor. Categories, however, arenot homogeneous; for example, whereas the landless and widowsare more likely to be poor, some of such households are quitewell off. It is argued that poverty in a good agricultural yearis a better indicator of sustained poverty than poverty in abad year. Occupational mobility out of agricultural labor islow, and changes in the distribution of land are largely accountedfor by demographic processes such as household splits.     

Top Indian Incomes, 1922-2000

This article presents data on the evolution of top incomes andwages for 1922–2000 in India using individual tax returndata. The data show that the shares of the top 0.01 percent,0.1 percent, and 1 percent in total income shrank substantiallyfrom the 1950s to the early to mid-1980s but then rose again,so that today these shares are only slightly below what theywere in the 1920s and 1930s. This U-shaped pattern is broadlyconsistent with the evolution of economic policy in India: Fromthe 1950s to the early to mid-1980s was a period of "socialist"policies in India, whereas the subsequent period, starting withthe rise of Rajiv Gandhi, saw a gradual shift toward more probusinesspolicies. Although the initial share of the top income groupwas small, the fact that the rich were getting richer had anontrivial impact on the overall income distribution. Althoughthe impact is not large enough to fully explain the gap observedduring the 1990s between average consumption growth shown inNational Sample Survey–based data and the national accounts–baseddata, it is sufficiently large to explain a nonnegligible partof it (20–40 percent).     

Rural Poverty: Old Challenges in New Contexts

Poverty is still a predominantly rural phenomenon. However,the context of rural poverty has been changing across the world,with high growth in some economies and stagnation in others.Furthermore, increased openness in many economies has affectedthe specific role of agricultural growth for rural poverty reduction.This paper revisits an ‘old’ question: how doesgrowth and poverty reduction come about if most of the poorlive in rural areas and are dependent on agriculture? What isthe role of agricultural and rural development in this respect?Focusing on Sub-Saharan Africa, and using economic theory andthe available evidence, the author comes to the conclusion thatchanging contexts has meant that agricultural growth is onlycrucial as an engine for growth in particular settings, morespecifically in landlocked, resource-poor countries, which areoften also characterized by relatively low potential for agriculture.However, extensive market failures in key factor markets andlikely spatial effects give a remaining crucial role for ruraldevelopment policies, including focusing on agriculture, toassist the inclusion of the rural poor in growth and development.How to overcome these market failures remains a key issue forfurther research. JEL codes: O41, Q10, O55     

Modernization of agriculture and long-term growth

This paper develops a two-sector model that illuminates the role played by agricultural modernization in the transition from stagnation to growth. When agriculture relies on traditional technology, industrial development reduces the relative price of industrial products, but has a limited effect on per capita income because most labor has to remain in farming. Growth is not sustainable until this relative price drops below a certain threshold, thus inducing farmers to adopt modern technology that employs industry-supplied inputs. Once agricultural modernization begins, per capita income emerges from stasis and accelerates toward modern growth. Our calibrated model is largely consistent with the set of historical data we have compiled on the English economy, accounting well for the growth experience of England encompassing the Industrial Revolution.     

农业保险缩小城乡收入差距的作用分析——基于动态面板模型的GMM估计

现有研究普遍认为农村金融的发展能显著的促进经济发展和缩小城乡收入差距,政策性农业保险也是农村金融的重要组成部分。基于动态面板模型的系统GMM方法和2007—2011年中国农业保险数据,本文对农业保险与城乡收入差距进行了实证研究。实证研究结果表明：首先,农业保险发展能显著的缩小城乡收入差距。其次,农业保险发展与农村居民收入显著正相关,但与城镇居民收入不存在显著的相关关系。最后,农业保险发展与经济发展没有相关关系。研究结果还表明,城市化能显著地缩小收入差距,但教育、对外开放程度等可能会扩大收入差距。因此,加快农业保险发展是缩小城乡收入差距的可选路径。     

财政政策引导金融机构支农有效吗?——涉农贷款增量奖励政策的效果评价

财政支农与金融支农的协调配合是当前国家支农和减贫的重要政策创新之一。县域金融机构涉农贷款增量奖励政策自2009年起在全国部分省区进行了多轮试点,是一项利用财政手段引导金融资源向农村配置的重要举措。基于我国各地区农业经济发展数据,本研究采用渐进双重差分方法评估涉农贷款增量奖励政策是否促进了我国农业经济的发展。实证结果显示:在控制气候条件、要素投入、地方支农财政支出、地方金融发展和农业产业化等变量后,涉农贷款奖励政策显著激励了各地区粮食产量和农民收入的增长,即用财政政策引导金融机构支农确实促进了我国农业经济的发展。一系列检验证明估计结果是稳健的,且由于地方财政分担比例不同等原因导致涉农贷款奖励政策对中西部地区的影响更为明显。机制分析发现,奖励政策主要是通过提高农业机械化水平和优化农村交通基础设施的方式促进了农业经济发展。本研究表明应继续推进财政引导金融支农的政策,为振兴乡村战略提供更多支撑。     

Agricultural Incentives in Developing Countries: Measuring the Effect of Sectoral and Economywide Policies

The impact of sector-specific (direct) and economywide (indirect)policies on agricultural incentives for eighteen developingcountries for the period 1975–84 are estimated. The directeffect is measured by the proportional difference between theproducer price and the border price (adjusting for distribution,storage, transport, and other marketing costs). The indirecteffect has two components. The first is the impact of the unsustainableportion of the current account deficit and of industrial protectionpolicies on the real exchange rate and thus on the price ofagricultural commodities relative to nonagricultural nontradables.The second is the impact of industrial protection policies onthe relative price of agricultural commodities to that of nonagriculturaltradable goods. We find that (1) in almost all cases the directeffect is equivalent to a tax on exportable goods (–11percent on average) and to a subsidy for importables (20 percenton average); (2) the indirect effect also taxes agriculture(–27 percent on average) and dominates the direct effect(whether the direct effect is positive or negative); and (3)the direct policies for both importables and exportables stabilizedomestic producer prices.     

进一步完善我国农业补贴政策的思考

财政补贴始终是我国支持和保护农业的重要手段,本文在评价了农业补贴政策的现状和问题的基础上,提出应以增加农民收入和提高农业综合生产力为目标,在WTO框架下进一步完善我国农业补贴政策,充分利用黄箱补贴,拓宽绿箱补贴,完善补贴结构,发挥政策整体效能,更好地解决三农问题。     

中国农村金融发展与农民收入增长--基于综合指数分析

对于中国农村金融发展与农民收入间关系的实证检验,迄今尚无定论。借鉴时间序列因子分析,本文考察了农村金融发展综合指数与农民收入之间的关系。研究发现,中国农村金融发展与农民收入间有单向格兰杰因果关系。协整方程表明,在长期内,农村金融发展水平每提高1个单位,实际农民收入可以提高48.1%。MS-VAR模型表明,在短期内,农村金融发展依然能够促进农民收入增长,当国家实施农村偏向型经济政策时,这一促进效果更加明显。     

基于VAR模型下粮食价格、农业生产成本与农民收入的实证研究

通过脉冲响应函数得出农业生产资料价格与粮食价格,同时上涨,部分或者完全抵消了粮食价格上涨以及国家试图提高农民收入、调节收入分配而出台的各项优惠政策对农民收入的增加效应。Granger因果检验说明粮食价格、农民收入分别是农业生产成本的Granger原因。为此,政府必须将农业生产资料价格的上涨幅度控制在合理区间,改善农村物流现状,规范农资市场的经营等。     

Agricultural Pricing Policies in Developing Countries: An Application to Pakistan

The range of and constraints on policy instruments available to thegovernment when raising and distributing revenue can have importantconsequences for the efficiency and equity implications of pricingpolicy. The usual trade-off between equity and efficiency ismagnified. We emphasize the potential for substantial efficiency gainsfrom reforming agricultural pricing policies and from developing moredirect income transfer mechanisms. The importance of incorporatingcross-price effects is highlighted and we show that these can changethe direction of welfare-improving marginal price reforms.     

健康人力资本对农民农业收入增长的影响研究

基于中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）面板数据,采用Hausman—Taylor模型,本文估计了中国农村地区农民的营养与健康状况对农业收入的影响。研究表明,更高的身高可以增加农民的农业收入,并且男性身高回报要高于女性。身体质量指数（BMI）对女性农业收入的提高有显著性影响,但对男性的影响不显著且方向为负。热量摄入与农业收入之间显著相关,更高的热量摄入是农业收入增长的决定因素之一。本文的研究结果为健康人力资本在农民增收中的重要作用提供了经验证据。     

Return predictability and shareholders’ real options

This study re-interprets the properties of the residual income model by highlighting the shareholders’ abandonment (liquidation or adaptation) option. We estimate the value of this real option as an explicit component of abnormal earnings in the residual income model and test the improvement in valuation after incorporating it into the model. Relative to the traditional specification of the residual income model, this real options model has a stronger predictive power for future abnormal stock returns. We also find that the superior return predictability of the real options model is pronounced in the set of firms with a high probability of exercising liquidation options (for example, those with low profitability, low growth opportunities, high underlying asset volatility, and low intangible assets), which is consistent with the importance of shareholders’ abandonment option in equity valuation. The results are robust to extensive sensitivity checks.     

The Tragedy of the Commons in Cote d'Ivoire Agriculture: Empirical Evidence and Implications for Evaluating Trade Policies

Expansion of cultivated land diminishes the extent of forestlandsor reduces the length of fallow periods and, hence, reducesthe amount of natural vegetation. The increase in land undercultivation has a direct output-increasing effect at the costof reducing natural capital and agricultural productivity. Theevidence for western Côte d'Ivoire is consistent with,and provides an explanation for, the declining agriculturalproductivity observed in Sub-Saharan Africa during the pastfew decades. This article uses a theoretical model to determine the levelof land cultivation that maximizes village income, using datafrom Côte d'Ivoire for 1985–87. An important partof the land is under common property, usually at the villagelevel. The results show that farmers do not internalize evena small fraction of the external cost of bio-mass in their landallocation decisions. The lack of internalization of the socialcost of the biomass resource leads to large income losses atthe village level—as much as 14 percent of village income.These losses are many times larger than the usual estimatesfor conventional distortions.     

税收政策对农村经济发展影响研究

现行税收政策对农业的调节功能较弱，税收政策调整滞后于农业经济发展的总体变化。鉴于税收对农村经济增长、农业资本投入、农业技术进步及农业产业结构都存在不同程度的影响，建议在税收政策上给予农业良好的环境空间，以形成有利于刺激农村经济发展的良性机制。     

Food prices,tax reforms and consumer Welfare in Tanzania 1991–2007

This paper analyses the effect of observed food price changes on household consumption (welfare) in Tanzania and from this simulates the welfare effect attributable to tax (tariffs and VAT) reforms. The three rounds of the Tanzania Household Budget Survey (1991/92, 2000/01 and 2007) are used to apply Deaton’s method based on median unit values (prices) and household budget shares. The results indicate that real price increases over 1991–2007 have reduced welfare of the average household by 20 per cent of 1991 income, and the loss was fairly evenly distributed between the 1990s and 2000s. The welfare loss was much greater for the poor, especially the rural poor (a 27 per cent reduction), compared to the non-poor (in particular the urban non-poor, who suffered a five per cent loss). Although we cannot establish explicit links between tax reforms and domestic commodity price changes, to assess the extent to which welfare changes can be explained by tax reforms we simulate the effects of tax changes on domestic price changes. The simulation shows that tax reforms (tariff reductions) offset the welfare losses for all household groups, especially in the 1990s; although the differences were small, the urban poor benefit more in relative terms from tax reforms whereas the rural poor benefit least (the effect on the non-poor was similar irrespective of location).     

论欧盟农业国内支持制度的演进及晚近发展趋势

欧盟农业国内支持法律制度的历史演进与“共同农业政策”(CAP)密切相关.为了适应WTO农业规则及欧盟农业发展的需要,CAP已历经多次改革,“促进农业发展、提升农产品竞争力”是其改革主线.CAP改革从“价格支持”到“与生产挂钩的直接支付”,再到“与生产脱钩的直接支付”,不过是从“黄箱”转到“蓝箱”再到“绿箱”的过程,是支持方式的改变,高额国内支持并未“实质性削减”.CPA2020新一轮改革延续了历史惯性,继续向“农业、农村可持续发展”的“绿箱化”支持推进,并兼顾“可靠的粮食安全、平衡的区域发展”的政策目标,使得CAP结构更为合理,重点更为突出,效果更为明显.CAP演进与改革,对于我国优化农业补贴结构、启动亲环境型补贴项目、强化农业支持的规范化、法制化,具有重要现实意义.