Comparing Fuzzy and Probabilistic Approaches to Preference Uncertainty in Non-Market Valuation

In seeking to value environmental amenities and public goods, individuals often have trouble trading off the (vague) good or amenity against a monetary measure. Valuation in these circumstances can best be described as fuzzy in terms of the amenity being valued, perceptions of property rights, and the numbers chosen to reflect values. In this paper, we apply fuzzy logic to contingent valuation, employing a fuzzy clustering approach for incorporating preference uncertainty obtained from a follow-up certainty confidence question. We develop a fuzzy random utility maximization (FRUM) framework where the perceived utility of each individual is fuzzy in the sense that an individual’s utility belongs to each cluster to some degree. The model is then applied to a Swedish survey that elicited residents’ willingness to pay for enhanced forest conservation and to a Canadian survey of agricultural landowners that elicited their willingness to accept compensation for a tree planting program. Both the WTP and WTA measures we obtain using the fuzzy approach are well below those obtained using standard probability methods. Based on goodness of fit measures and Monte Carlo experimentation, a case can be made for using a fuzzy preference approach for modeling preference uncertainty as opposed to incorporating respondent uncertainty within the random utility maximization framework.      

耕地资源非市场价值及其评估方法分析

非市场价值是耕地资源无法忽略的重要组成部分,耕地资源过多向非农用途转变的根本原因在于人们对耕地资源的价值认识不足.文章在评析耕地资源价值理论的基础上,系统地分析了耕地资源的非市场价值及其构成,并讨论了耕地资源非市场价值的各种评估方法及其局限性,以促进我国耕地资源非市场价值评估理论和方法的进一步完善.     

Laboratory Testbeds and Non-Market Valuation: The Case of Bidding Behavior in a Second-Price Auction with an Outside Option

Researchers now use the lab to examine the behavioral underpinnings of valuation before the field application which some argue has less experimental control. But lab valuation work raises its own set of concerns when it uses private goods to explore non-market valuation behavior because private goods have substitutes often unaccounted for in the lab. Therefore, the lab as a tool to testbed field valuation work may be limited. Herein we design an induced valuation experiment to explore bidding behavior in a second-price auction with an outside option that is a perfect substitute for the auction commodity. Theory predicts that rational bidders will consider the prices of outside options when formulating bidding strategies, and will reduce their bids whenever their resale value exceeds the price of the outside option. Our results suggest that bidders account for outside options when formulating bids with behavior following comparative static predictions. In addition, we provide evidence concerning hypothetical versus actual behavior with induced values – the data suggesting a hypothetical bias in the level of bids but not in bid shaving.     

A Contingent Valuation Estimate of the Benefits of Wolves in Minnesota

In this paper we estimate the willingness topay for a wolf management plan and a wolfdamage plan in Minnesota using the contingentvaluation method. The theoretical definition ofwillingness to pay for wolf protection iscomposed of use and non-use values. Weincorporate a don't know response option in thedichotomous choice valuation questions. A largenumber of respondents answered don't know. Themultinomial logit model is used todifferentiate between don't know and noresponses. Non-use motives are importantfactors that explain willingness to pay. We usethese benefit estimates in combination with twoalternative cost estimates to consider theefficiency of the wolf management and damageplans. Both plans have estimated benefitsgreater than costs.     

国有企业控制权收益与最优重组契约

本文研究了国有企业经营者控制权收益与企业最优重组契约之间的关系。控制权收益的存在使企业内生的重组行为不是，但作为外部企业的兼并需求则过度。如果经营者的控制权收益可以进行交易和货币补偿，则企业的最优重组契约能够实现企业价值的最大化。     

Optimal Design of Forest Taxation with Multiple-Use Characteristics of Forest Stands

The paper studies optimal forest taxation under uncertainty about future timber price when private forest owners value amenity services of forest stands and forest stands have public goods characteristics. It is assumed that preferences of forest owners can be described by a quasi-linear, intertemporal utility function which reflects risk aversion in terms of consumption and constant marginal utility in terms of amenity services. The comparative statics of current and future harvesting in terms of timber price risk, site productivity tax and yield tax are first developed. It is shown that, given the optimal site productivity tax, which is independent of the timber harvested and thus non-distortionary, it is desirable to introduce the yield tax at the margin; it both corrects externality due to the public goods characteristic of forest stands and serves as a social insurance device. The optimal yield tax is less than 100% and depends on the social value of forest stands, timber price risk and properties of compensated timber supply. In the general case the 'inverse elasticity rule – according to which the optimal yield tax is negatively related to the size of the substitution effects – may not hold. Under certainty, the desirability of the yield tax, given the optimal site productivity tax, depends only on the existence of public goods characteristic and is thus a pure Pigouvian tax.     

海南中部山区森林生态系统服务功能价值评估

海南中部山区是全省生态功能的核心区,对维持全岛生态平衡与可持续发展起着十分重要的作用。本文依据2005年SPOT2、SPOT4遥感影像（10米分辨率）所提取的专题图层分析统计出中部山区森林生态系统类型和面积,提出了各类型生态系统服务功能评价指标沐系,分为提供产品、调节功能、文化功能和支持功能4种类型;并利用生态经济相关理论基础对备服务功能价值进行了初步评价．结果表明,海南中部山区森林生态系统8种类型9种服务功能总价值为1549．5×10^8元／a,其中调节功能达1472．8×10^8元,占总服务功能价值的90％以上。为进一步提高人们的生态环保意识和促进海南生态补偿机制的建立提供重要参考。     

海南中部山区森林生态系统服务功能价值评估

海南中部山区是全省生态功能的核心区,对维持全岛生态平衡与可持续发展起着十分重要的作用.本文依据2005年SPOT2、SPOT4遥感影像(10米分辨率)所提取的专题图层分析统计出中部山区森林生态系统类型和面积,提出了各类型生态系统服务功能评价指标体系,分为提供产品、调节功能、文化功能和支持功能4种类型;并利用生态经济相关理论基础对各服务功能价值进行了初步评价.结果表明,海南中部山区森林生态系统8种类型9种服务功能总价值为1549.5 × 108元/a,其中调节功能达1472.8×108元,占总服务功能价值的90%以上.为进一步提高人们的生态环保意识和促进海南生态补偿机制的建立提供重要参考.     

Modelling the Non-market Environmental Costs and Benefits of Biodiversity Projects Using Contingent Valuation Data

CV studies rarely ask willingness to accept (WTA)questions, yet there are a range of environmentalprojects where there are likely to be potential losersas well as gainers. This paper presents evidence fromsix biodiversity projects that the inclusion ofcontingent compensation payments from thoserespondents who preferred the status quo cansubstantially reduce net project benefits, even whenthe proportion of losers is relatively small. Astatistical model for estimating the mean welfaremeasure from dichotomous choice data which allows forboth positive WTP, zero WTP, and WTA is described. Asmany environmental projects are likely to create bothgainers and losers, we recommend that CV analysts giveserious consideration to the collection and analysisof WTA data otherwise they risk generating biasedestimates of project benefits.     

森林资源生态利益损害法律救济探析

森林资源生态利益损害是客观存在的环境损害。在森林资源生态利益损害救济中,现行行政处罚措施缺乏补偿性和预防性、环境侵权法调整生态利益缺失、环境诉讼起诉资格受到限制。在现行法律体系内,应发挥环境法的补偿功能和预防功能的优势,确立森林资源生态损害民事赔偿制度和生态损害救济基金制度,拓宽诉讼主体资格,建立环境公益诉讼制度等方面重构救济机制,以充分发挥环境法对森林资源生态利益损害的救济。     

两人合作收益的整体最优分配

传统合作博弈中对合作剩余的分配，没有纳入到生产和消费的系统循环中来考虑，只是在对公平与合理的个人主观理解上给出了对合作剩余的分配办法。在引入消费在一定期限内具有餍足性的假设条件下，把生产和消费纳入一个统一的分析框架之内，在最简单的两人合作中，用线性规划对具体数值给出一个唯一解，用代数方法得出两人合作中的一般整体最优分配解。实证结果证明，两人合作效率优于单人。     

Use of Contingent Valuation to Elicit Willingness-to-Pay for the Benefits of Developmental Health Risk Reductions

We report the results of several contingent valuation (CV) surveys to elicit willingness-to-pay values from the general public for risk reductions associated with decreases in exposure to a chemical, PCBs, in the environment. We also develop Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) from the survey using both standard gamble and time-tradeoff elicitation methods to explore the relationship between QALYs and willingness-to-pay (WTP), and to develop QALY weights for subtle developmental effects. The results of the CV surveys are designed for incorporation into a case study of an integrated risk model to monetize the benefits of predicted risk reductions. Respondents showed a nearly proportional, positive relationship between decreasing the risk of a 6-point reduction in IQ (a standard measure of “intelligence”) and WTP, but showed a negative relationship between risk reduction and WTP for reading comprehension as an outcome. The range of mortality risks that respondents would accept on behalf of their (hypothetical) 10-year-old child is 2 in 10,000 to 9 in 1,000 per IQ point, and WTP per IQ point is $466 ($380, $520). QALY weights elicited via time tradeoff (reduction in life expectancy) were significantly different from QALY weights elicited via a standard gamble (p = 0.001). Respondents who answered questions about ecological endpoints first were willing to pay a small additional amount when asked about human health effects, but those respondents who answered questions about human health endpoints first were not willing to pay any additional amount when subsequently asked about ecological effects. This paper has not been submitted elsewhere in identical or similar form, nor will it be during the first three months after its submission to the Publisher.     

Valuation and Management of Fishing Resources Under Price Uncertainty

The traditional expected-net-present-value methods cannot properly capture the management flexibility and strategic value aspects of a fishery, and may understate its value. Instead, this paper develops a Real Options model to conceptualize and evaluate fishery exploitation flexibility. Specifically, general models to value the opportunity to either exploit or invest in a fishery are presented. They suffice to determine not only these values, but also the optimal policy for opening, closing, delaying and setting its harvest rate. The sustainable case in which the harvest rate equals the natural net growth function is also considered. Concerning the exploitation decision, it is found that, as could be expected, the higher the resource price the higher the value of this opportunity in both models (general and sustainable). However, the resource stock affects both models differently. As to the investment opportunity, its value is always lower than the exploitation opportunity because of investment costs. Finally, numerical simulations are run in order to illustrate the nature of the solution. Sensitivity analysis concerning the influence of the tax rate, convenience yield, risk-free interest rate and price volatility on the value of the fishery is also reported. Earlier versions of this paper have benefited from conference participants at the Young Economists Conference 2000 (Oxford University), Tenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (Oregon State University), XXV Simposio de Análisis Económico (Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona, Spain) and Seminar at the Dpt. Fundamentos del Análisis Económico (Universidad del País Vasco, Spain). We especially thank Prof. Ian Bateman and two anonymous referees whose insightful comments have enabled us to eliminate several errors and to improve the presentation. Murillas gratefully acknowledges doctoral fellowship from Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (AP96), and financial support from the Xunta de Galicia (PGIDT01PXI30004PR) and from the Ministerio de Ciencia y Teconología (SEC 2001-3700). The usual disclaimer applies.     

最优政府规模的测度及其与经济效益关系研究

通过对Lynn MacDonald构建的最优政府规模模型进行扩展并构建计量模型,用政府人员规模和资金规模两大指标衡量政府规模,使用我国1990～2013年的宏观统计数据对政府规模和经济效益之间的关系及29个省级行政单位的最优政府规模进行实证分析。结论认为政府规模是影响经济效益的重要因素,资金规模比人员规模的影响要大,部分省级行政单位已经非常接近最优政府规模,但是还有很多省级行政单位存在政府支出不足或政府支出过度等现象。     

基于生态系统服务功能的森林社会效益价值评估——以云南省森林资源为例

森林除了具有经济价值和生态价值外,还具有基于生态系统服务功能所产生的社会效益价值。论文以云南省森林资源为例,采用房地产评估中常用的假设开发法为主要评估方法,结合森林资源所反映的社会效益价值增长特征,运用企业自由现金流量折现模型中的两阶段现金流折现模型,通过构建模型体系,分别从直接社会效益和间接社会效益两个维度对云南省森林资源的社会效益价值进行评估。其中,直接社会效益包括就业价值和景观游憩价值,间接社会效益包括科教价值、历史价值及文化价值,通过模糊综合评判计算各组成部分的不同影响权重得出直接和间接社会效益模型,以多元回归的方法构建森林生态总体社会效益价值模型并计算云南省森林社会效益价值。同时,将各部分价值结果分别与云南省第三产业GDP、人均GDP及云南省GDP进行对比分析,进而对云南省森林社会效益价值现有情况进行评价,并对今后的森林资源开发提出相关建议。     

河西走廊防风固沙林体系生态经济效益调查研究

调查结果表明,防风固沙林体系能改善农业气候,减弱风速,减少输沙量及沙风暴天数和干热风的危害,恢复、扩大耕地面积,提高粮食产量,同时提供木材、薪柴、草等物质资源,生态经济效益显著。     

Optimal Forestry Contracts under Asymmetry of Information

In this paper, I analyze optimal royalty contracts in forestry when the harvesting firm has private information on the cost of harvesting. This infinite horizon forest rotation model with asymmetry of information on the cost parameter results in a dynamic incentive problem. Depending on whether the costs are correlated over time or not, the firm either receives rent or receives no rent, associated with the continuation part of the rotation choice. I characterize the optimal contract explicitly in both cases. I also examine the loss in expected welfare surplus resulting from the use of a linear contract instead of the more general non‐linear contract.     

日本森林资源管理的做法与经验

为了有效地保护和利用森林资源,日本对森林资源管理体制进行了改革,按照所有制的不同,制定相应政策法规,实施不同管理方法.国有林由政府派出机构负责管理,私有林由所有者经营管理,并给予政策上的各种优惠.政府还鼓励群众植树造林,增强林业意识,改善生态环境.日本森林资源管理的做法和经验,值得我们学习和借鉴.     

秦巴山区退耕还林效益评价研究——以陕南三市为例

到2007年底,全国退耕还林面积3.64亿亩,惠及农民1.24亿人.中央已累计投入1300亿元。秦巴山区退耕还林3810.68万亩(约占全国退耕还林面积的10%)。在退耕还林效益方面.政府乐观而学者意见分歧的现状常常动摇人们对退耕还林政策的信心。本文通过主成分分析法(PCA)对秦巴山区退耕还林效益进行量化评价,可以看出退耕还林效益正在初步显现,坚定了人们对退耕还林政策的信心。