Matrix Representation of Conflict Resolution in Multiple-Decision-Maker Graph Models with Preference Uncertainty

Explicit matrix representations of solution concepts in a graph model of a multiple-decision-maker conflict with preference uncertainty are developed. In a graph model, the relative preferences of each DM over the available states are crucial in determining which states are stable according to any stability definition (solution concept). Unfortunately, it is often difficult to obtain accurate preference information in practical cases, so models that allow preference uncertainty can be very useful. In this work, stability definitions are extended to apply to graph models with this feature. The extension is easiest to implement using the matrix representation of a conflict model, which was developed to ease the coding of logically-defined stability definitions. Another benefit of matrix representation is that it facilitates modification and extension of the definitions.     

Strength of Preference in the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution

A new preference structure that includes a simple relative measure of strength of preference is developed and integrated into some of the stability definitions for the graph model for conflict resolution. In this triplet preference structure, a decision-maker may greatly prefer or prefer one state or scenario to another, or may be indifferent between them. Four stability definitions (solution concepts), Nash stability (R), general metarationality (GMR), symmetric metarationality (SMR), and sequential stability (SEQ), are extended to include strong and weak stabilities for the case of conflicts with two decision makers. Theorems that clarify the interrelationships of the strong and weak versions of these solution concepts are presented. The application of this new preference structure and the associated solution concepts is demonstrated in an environmental conflict model, called the Sustainable Development Conflict. This case shows that valuable strategic insights are gained when strength of preference is integrated into the stability analysis.     

Integrating an Option-Oriented Attitude Analysis into Investigating the Degree of Stabilities in Conflict Resolution

Despite the influences on one’s thoughts and actions, the attitude has usually been overlooked in conflict analysis. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new systematic methodology for the graph model for conflict resolution that can be employed to study real-world conflict situations and gain enhanced insights. More specifically, the proposed method starts with the development of an expanded option-oriented preference structure that is derived from decision makers’ attitudes toward others. Then based on this attitude-driven preference structure, the general concepts of stabilities are extended to contain the definitions of different degrees of stabilities under attitude. In addition, the proposed method is embedded in a decision support system, called NUAAGMCR, to facilitate the analytical process. Through a detailed case study of the two-stage environmental conflict of post-Fukushima controversy in Japan, the predicted resolutions are demonstrated to be more accurate and stable than those derived by the general stability analysis.     

Modeling the Role of a Coordinator as a Medium of Communication in 2-Player Conflicts

This paper discusses the role of a coordinator in the 2-player conflict where the information on players' preference is incomplete. It is assumed that the coordinator has a priori prospect of feasible alternatives. First, the method of the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) is extended to apply to this conflict with incomplete information, and the coordination system for the conflict with incomplete information is proposed. The process operated by the coordinator uses Extended Robustness Analysis that specifies the critical conditions for the stability and Pareto efficiency of an alternative. Finally, the methodology is applied to the conflict between hydropower generation and environmental interests.     

Dazing Diversity: Investigating the Determinants and Consequences of Decision Paralysis

This article makes new contributions to the assessment of negative effects on consumer choice behavior due to high product variety by (1) developing a holistic framework to identify the determinants and, for the first time, consequences of decision paralysis; (2) introducing a novel construct, namely, tendencies toward paralysis, that refers to the extent of decision makers’ preference (a) to maintain the status quo, (b) to omit, and/or (c) to delay choice, as well as providing an appropriate measurement model incorporating these three dimensions of decision paralysis that previously have been analyzed only separately; and (3) analyzing potential moderating effects of decision makers’ predisposition toward maximizing on the proposed model. The developed structural equation model as well as the conceptualization and operationalization of the novel construct are verified using data from the German cellular phone market. The model constructs of preference uncertainty and anticipated regret are evidenced to be the fundamental drivers of the formation of tendencies toward paralysis. In this context, the characteristics of variety under consideration—number, alignability, and complexity of alternatives—turn out to be appropriate parameters in avoiding decision paralysis. Moreover, a significant negative relationship between tendencies toward paralysis and subsequent customer satisfaction points out the importance of these findings for future research and business practice.     

Cultural values,emotional intelligence,and conflict handling styles: A global study

While previous research has identified cultural values and emotional intelligence as central determinants of conflict handling styles, little is known about the mechanism through which cultural values impact individuals’ preferences for specific conflict handling styles. Based on a multinational dataset including 1527 individuals from ten different cultural clusters, the current study aims to integrate these two literature streams by examining the influence of cultural values on conflict handling styles through emotional intelligence. The results of structural equation modeling and mediation analysis show that in particular uncertainty avoidance and long-term orientation influence preferences for the conflict handling styles of compromising, obliging, and integrating through emotional intelligence. Furthermore, we find that collectivism has a direct negative effect on the preference for a dominating style and that power distance has a direct positive effect on the preference for an avoiding and a dominating style. Our study contributes to a more comprehensive and more integrative understanding of earlier research on the role of culture and emotional intelligence in conflict handling.     

Hierarchical power in personnel negotiations

Hierarchical Power (HP), a model for power asymmetry, is used in conjunction with other principles of personnel management to analyze the behavior of professionals during negotiations in an organization. Hierarchical Power involves the ability of a decision maker to choose in the knowledge of the opponent's choice. The methodology of HP is applied to a representative conflict in which a professional employee prefers to remain in the status quo position, and would rather leave the organization than accept a transfer to another position. An analysis of this conflict using HP is consistent with observed outcomes. HP is then used to study whether and how an alternate plan can help to eliminate the possible deadlock between the decision makers.     

A Negotiation Model for Inducing Higher Service in a Distribution Channel

This paper analyzes, in the context of negotiation, the problem of coordination and conflict resolution between the manufacturer (Seller) and the retailers (Buyers) for a two-tier inventory system. The retailers capture demand (from customers) and therefore are responsible for the level of service offered by the system. The larger the inventory that a retailer has of a particular product, the lower the probability of running out of stock and therefore, avoid the possibility of a lost sale for the manufacturer. A conflict arises (and therefore the negotiation process starts) when the manufacturer wants the retailer to increase the level of service while retailers are satisfied with the status quo. Using the Nash bargaining solution, we develop a theoretical framework that incorporates behavioral dimensions and predicts the outcome of “sharing” the profit. The results indicate the advantage of developing long term relationships among the members of the distribution channel to minimize the uncertainty and therefore the source of conflict.     

Implementing new business models: What challenges lie ahead?

What strategic choices do business leaders make when implementing new business models? This study tries to answer this question by analyzing the development of several business model innovations that were new to the industry. We find that business model innovators face four strategic trade-offs and accompanying tensions during the implementation of their business model innovation process: (1) the level of independence granted to the developer (independence vs. dependence), (2) the degree to which the roadmap is planned in advance (discovery vs. planned execution), (3) the degree to which the value proposition challenges the status quo (challenging vs. maintaining status quo), and (4) the rigor to which business model innovators preserve the logic of the initial value proposition (solid vs. fluid logic). Our in-depth analysis reveals that business model innovators make pragmatic decisions that may deviate from the guidelines offered by existing literature, and we offer insights into the drivers behind these decisions.     

Autocracy,democracy and trade policy

This paper develops a politico-economic model for use in studying the role of intra-elite conflict in the simultaneous determination of a country's political regime, trade policy and income-tax-based redistribution scheme. Three socioeconomic groups are involved: two elite groups and workers, whose preferences regarding trade policy and income taxation are derived from a simple open-economy model. The critical point is that income taxation induces a rich–poor/elite–workers political cleavage, while trade policy opens the door to intra-elite conflict. In this model, when there is no intra-elite conflict, changes in trade policy are associated with political transitions. Coups (democratizations) open up the economy if and only if both elite groups are pro-free-trade (protectionist). However, in the presence of intra-elite conflict, autocracies respond to popular revolts by changing trade policy and reallocating political power within the elite (to the elite group with the same trade policy preference as the workers) rather than offering to democratize the country. The change in trade policy is credible because the elite group with the same trade policy preference as the workers controls the autocracy. Moreover, in the presence of intra-elite conflict, coups tend to result in the maintenance of the existing trade policy unless popular demands are extremely radical and/or the elite group with the same trade policy preference as the workers is exceptionally weak.     

存在冲突证据下的证据推理多属性决策方法

针对传统的证据推理方法对证据冲突处理能力的不足,在引入冲突参数的基础上提 出了新的证据推理算法,通过证明,新算法完全满足证据合成的4个公理。基于方案集间冲 突参数对决策结果影响差异最小化原则,提出了新的冲突参数优化模型,最后通过实例仿真 ,论证了新算法对解决证据间存在冲突时的多属性决策问题的可行性和优越性。     

Price uncertainty and competitive firm behavior: Testable hypotheses from expected utility maximization

This article derives the general implications of expected utility maximization for the static model of the competitive firm under output price uncertainty for any risk preference and probability structure. Implications of the results for the empirical analysis of risk-responsive behavior under uncertainty are discussed.     

Are entrepreneurs' decisions more biased? An experimental investigation of the susceptibility to status quo bias

Entrepreneurship research has demonstrated that entrepreneurs are more susceptible to certain cognitive biases than are selected other individuals. We investigate whether this finding holds for the status quo bias not yet investigated in the entrepreneurship literature. The status quo bias is defined as the tendency to select a previously chosen alternative disproportionately often. We compare entrepreneurs' decisions with those of students and bankers in an experimental study. We find that entrepreneurs are as affected by the status quo as students but less affected than bankers. Accounting for differences in experience and types of decision scenarios, we have indirect evidence for a consistency of entrepreneurs' decisions with what would be expected from a stereotypical Schumpeterian entrepreneur: being more open to new options than other individuals are. However, since entrepreneurs are frequently influenced by the status quo, we discuss the pros and cons of such behavior.     

Narrow Framing and Retirement Savings Decisions

Theoretical studies suggest narrow framing underlies individuals' saving decisions. When narrow framing is applied to retirement savings decisions, narrow framers tend to make decisions about present consumption without considering future consumption, i.e., saving for consumption in retirement. Time preference for the present and narrow framers' preference to maintain the status quo lead to a decision that is less likely to increase savings for retirement. This study provides empirical evidence that narrow framing bias affects retirement savings decisions. Using a two‐part model, the probit estimation indicates narrow framers anticipated being less willing to increase retirement savings contributions compared to broad framers, and the OLS regression estimates that narrow framers anticipated contributing less than broad framers. Here, narrow framers anticipated being less willing to increase retirement savings (62.6% vs. 71.9%) and contributing less ($70.90 vs. $88.40) than broad framers, thus providing empirical evidence regarding the effects of behavioral biases on financial decisions.     

基于Heston's SV模型下带有违约风险的最优再保险-投资策略

对于模糊厌恶型保险公司，在可违约金融市场中，考虑其比例再保险-投资问题。假设在任意时刻保险公司可购买比例再保险和投资无风险资产、风险资产和可违约债券，其中风险资产价格服从Heston's SV (Heston's Stochastic Volatility) 模型。首先，考虑模型不确定性，采用与参考模型概率测度等价的概率测度描述替代模型。利用Girsanov变换得到保险公司在替代模型下的财富过程，并通过动态规划原理建立了相应的HJB (Hamilton-Jacob-Bellman) 方程，其中，文章用含状态依赖的不同偏好参数度量模型不确定性的模糊度。其次，分别在违约前和违约后的情况下，针对CARA (Constant Absolute Risk Aversion) 效用函数求解HJB方程，得到了最优稳键的再保险-投资策略，并给出了数值模拟和经济学解释。结果表明：相比较使用同一偏好参数的模型结果，文章的最优策略的表达式更精确，考虑的模型更符合实际金融环境。     

Visualization service investment strategies for a self-operated fresh agricultural product e-tailer

Motivated by the fact that numerous fresh agricultural product e-tailers utilize the visualization technology to improve service quality, this paper examines visualization service investment strategies for a fresh agricultural product e-tailer. A supply chain comprised of one manufacturer and one self-operated e-tailer is constructed. We first investigate two service investment strategies in the game theory model: the manufacturer investment and the e-tailer investment. Our analysis reveals that there are two investment cases in the supply chain: one member intends to the service investment (a “win-win” situation) and neither is willing to offer the service (a “lose-lose” dilemma). Then we extend the theory model. The impacts of consumer preference heterogeneity, demand uncertainty and consumer preference for the product quality difference on the investment strategies are explored by the method of multi-agent modelling. We find that: (i) when consumer preference heterogeneity is small, the e-tailer should invest in the service; (ii) if consumer preference or demand uncertainty is moderate, it is difficult to reach an agreement between two players. Further, the government subsidy factor is considered. The issue of how the government subsidy affects service investment strategies is discussed. In fact, it is not necessary to provide a subsidy all the time. Only when the free-riding behavior happens, the government should grant a moderate amount of subsidy to coordinate the supply chain members. An excessive subsidy hurts two sides’ benefits instead.     

低碳经济下中国旅游业的可持续发展

低碳经济是解决经济快速发展和碳排放居高不下之间的矛盾的有效途径。在发展低碳经济的背景下,中国旅游业的可持续发展必须与这一经济发展模式相适应。然而,中国旅游业目前尚存在低碳理念落后、技术缺失等弊端。为改变这一格局,主管部门应实施统筹规划,相关企业应加大创新研发低碳旅游产品的力度,继而推进本土旅游业可持续发展。     

基于改进D-S证据理论的认知无线电频谱感知算法

在把D S证据理论应用于多节点的频谱感知数据融合时,如果数据冲突较大则融合结 果并不理想。为了解决上述问题,对D S证据理论的证据组合规则进行了改进,给出了一个 在数据冲突大时也适用的数据融合公式,并把这种改进的数据融合算法应用到多节点协作频 谱感知中。MATLAB仿真测试与结果分析表明改进算法提高了频谱感知性能。     

有源网络图的一种操作算子及其应用

本文定义了有源网络图的一种操作算子,并用其推导了一种确定有源网络拓扑分析中完全树符号的新算法.用该算法确定完全树符号时,只需依次替代电流图树(或电压图树)中的有源边,并记录替换边与被替换边的关联状况便可求出完全树的符号.此方法系统性强,易于编程.