茶籽油供需影响因素与弹性分析

依据经济学的需求和供给的基本原理,首先从价格、收入、替代品的价格及可获得性、消费者偏好和购买者数量等因素对茶籽油市场需求特性进行分析;其次从投入品价格、技术进步、相关物品的价格、政府政策和气候条件等5个方面对茶籽油供给特征进行深入剖析;然后,对茶籽油需求价格弹性、需求收入弹性和供给价格弹性进行分析;最后提出相应的政策建议。     

市场风险、价格预期与能繁母猪养殖行为

调控生猪养殖市场,保持生猪供给和市场价格的相对稳定,是我国政府的重要政策目标。深入分析并理解养殖户的养殖行为是实现该目标的关键。本文对不确定性环境下养殖户的能繁母猪养殖行为进行了研究。利用幼稚预期和ARMA模型预测生猪和饲料价格,并通过直接和间接两种方式度量生猪价格风险,构建了4个能繁母猪供给模型,分析了市场价格及其波动对能繁母猪存栏量的影响。结果表明:(1)市场价格及其波动均对养殖行为具有显著影响,但养殖户对市场价格反应更敏感;且相对于生猪价格,上游饲料价格的影响更大;(2)养殖户具有理性人特征,更关注于近期市场信号,而远期价格预期对能繁母猪养殖的影响较为复杂。本文建议稳定生猪供给除"稳价格"外还要在"降成本"上下功夫;同时,政府应完善生猪供需监测和数据发布制度,合理引导预期。     

基于Nerolve模型的我国牛肉产品供给反应研究

2011年以来,我国的牛肉价格持续上涨,呈供求偏紧状态。深入分析我国牛肉供给反应情况,对于把握牛肉生产发展特点、科学指导肉牛业生产发展、保障我国牛肉产品市场稳定供应将具有重要的现实意义。本文在综述相关研究的基础上,构建基于Nerolve模型的我国牛肉产品供给反应模型,以1979-2011年为研究时期,实证分析了我国牛肉产品供给的短期弹性和长期弹性。分析结果显示我国牛肉产品供给的短期弹性为0.058,短期内不具有弹性,表明牛肉产品供给受短期的价格影响不大;牛肉产品供给的长期弹性为1.283,表明牛肉产品供给长期具有弹性,牛肉产品供给长期受价格影响较大。因此,建议保障我国肉牛养殖扶持政策的持续稳定;在肉牛养殖资金、用地等方面给予重点扶持;重视技术水平提升,提高肉牛养殖技术效率;加大对养牛户的技能培训,提高专业知识。     

我国养殖水产品供给反应研究

论文依据2000-2013年我国淡水养殖、海水养殖水产品产量和价格数据,应用Nerlove模型,对我国淡水、海水养殖供给反应进行了实证分析。结果表明,前期养殖产量对养殖水产品供给的影响作用较大;价格对淡水养殖产量影响不显著;海水养殖产量受价格影响显著,但是短期、长期供给缺乏价格弹性。因此,为确保我国水产品长期有效供给,满足日益增长的水产品需求,需完善养殖渔民的补贴政策,加大信息服务建设,加强水产养殖业的科技推广力度。     

基于环保要求的河蟹养殖池塘标准化改造

正河蟹养殖业经过30多年的发展,基本形成了从苗种培育、成蟹养殖和产品营销等完整的产业链,现已成为我国淡水养殖的主导产业。但随着养殖规模不断扩张,不确定因素增加,出现了市场结构性过剩,价格下跌、盈利空间缩小和环境保护压力加大的新情况,同时也面临着极端气候影响、     

农业政策中的国家偏好函数及大豆市场的实证分析

理性的政府在制订农业政策时,会考虑到政策带给生产者、消费者、以及政府自身(代表纳税人的利益)带来的福利的影响.政府在与利益群体的博弈过程中,得到了有权重的国家偏好函数(PPF),这个有权重的偏好函数反映了政府对不同利益群体的福利偏好.本文用显示性偏好的方法得到了国家偏好函数中的权重,将政策偏好显性化,并运用了大豆市场上的历史资料印证了政府偏好函数所反映的政策偏好,政府在大豆市场上的政策基本上是倾向于生产者的.     

农业产业化低碳技术预期与策略的调查与博弈分析

以龙头企业、农户、政府、消费者的低碳技术与模式的预期收益调查为基础进行博弈分析,并进行配对检验,结果表明:龙头企业、基地农户和消费者对低碳技术与模式预期不高,消费者不愿支付较高价格且没有低碳财政补贴的情况下,形成了企业和农户都不采用低碳技术与模式的非合作策略均衡。打破不合作均衡的政策关键是:提高消费者低碳农产品预期,降低安全低碳技术与模式的投资与成本,提高收益预期,同时提高高碳生产者的生产成本、行政成本和赔偿成本,使其亏损。主要政策建议是:长远来看,通过广泛宣传,提高消费者对低碳生活和低碳产品的效用,进而提高低碳农产品的价格支付愿意,着重发挥市场机制的而基础作用。近期政府实施生产者补贴或价格补贴有助于提高生产者和消费者预期,加大污染罚款、加大质量和环境违法处罚、对受害者实施惩罚性赔偿。     

福建省食用型野生动物养殖业发展的制约因素与政策建议

通过对尤溪县和武夷山市等5个县市的实地调查发现,福建省食用型野生动物养殖业有所发展,但仍存在审批手续繁琐且难办证、资金不足、专业人员缺乏、技术不够成熟及市场不完善等制约因素,因而需采取简化审批手续、拓宽融资渠道、加强专业人才的培训、加快技术创新的步伐和规范市场行为等发展福建省食用型野生动物养殖业的措施。     

影响滨州冬枣价格变动的因素分析

通过分析冬枣市场价格变动趋势,根据供求理论,从生产成本、枣农的预期及政府政策的导向3个方面阐述了影响冬枣供给的因素,又从冬枣品质的下降、替代果品的出现及采购商讨价还价能力3个方面分析了影响冬枣需求的因素。研究发现,供给大于需求的局面逐渐产生,需求不足是影响冬枣价格的主要因素,进而提出尝试"冬枣树银行"种植模式、延长冬枣产业链、建立枣农合作组织来刺激需求,保障枣农权益。     

粮食价格调控、制度成本与社会福利变化——基于两种价格政策的分析

粮食价格波动牵涉众多主体的切身利益,价格太低导致"谷贱伤农",价格太高导致"米贵伤民"的现象。从保护消费者和生产者利益角度来说,政府可以采取价格稳定政策,也可以采取目标价格补贴政策。政府该如何做才能增加社会福利?本文研究认为,在不考虑制度成本条件下,粮食价格稳定政策能够实现社会福利增加;但是粮食价格调控体系存在的巨额制度成本将极大改变粮食价格稳定政策的社会福利效应,甚至会导致社会福利的恶化、财政负担的加剧,只有有效降低制度成本才能实现社会福利增加;目标价格补贴政策能够节省大量的粮食储备及调控成本,较好弥补价格波动对生产者与消费者福利的影响,但是目标价格的厘定是否合适和价格补贴效率对社会福利水平具有重要影响。     

Economics of household food waste

Food waste has drawn increasing public attention, and the high levels of estimated waste are largely considered to be a failure of our current food system. Recently, economists have begun to weigh in, showing food waste can emerge as the result of a complex equilibrium affected by consumers’ preferences for convenience; expectations about future food prices and availability; food safety concerns; producers’ costs of holding inventory, transportation, and storage; government regulation; and technology. If food waste is a form of inefficiency, there are either strong economic motivations to reduce waste, or unmeasured costs or preferences affecting waste decisions. If consumers have behavioral biases, suffer from information asymmetries, or do not pay the full cost of their waste, there may be a role for government intervention to reduce waste, but most empirical models in the literature have not articulated or quantified the extent of the deadweight loss from the market failures in relation to food waste. In some cases, waste reduction efforts could harm producers if overall demand for food is reduced or harm consumers if overconsumption is encouraged, quality or safety degrades, or supply disruptions occur. Technological innovations, which lower the cost of storage or extend shelf life have the potential to improve both consumer and producer welfare.     

Least-cost cheap-food policies: some implications of international food aid

Many low-income countries pursue cheap-food policies in which consumers pay subsidized prices for bread, rice and other staples. This paper addresses the issue of why different governments select different food subsidy policies, using multiple instruments rather than a simple across-the-board subsidy to provide consumers with access to cheap food. It examines the optimal structure of cheap-food policies in the context of a partial equilibrium model in which the country may he large in trade, and is able to combine import subsidies or tariffs, and output taxes or subsidies, to transfer income to consumers through the market. The model allows for a marginal opportunity cost of government revenues greater than one dollar. In addition, in the model, food aid from overseas may be either given away to the consumer, or given to the government for subsequent sale in the domestic market. The results indicate that only by happenstance will a country choose to use a pure consumption subsidy or a pure import subsidy to transfer income to consumers. In addition, an increase in international food aid does not necessarily lead the government to reduce producer and consumer prices for a commodity.     

Economic Measures of Sustainability

Sustainable Agriculture is a term that has grown out of global call for sustainable development. Unfortunately, the term has been very widely adopted to represent a variety of initiatives. If the term is to retain any meaning it must be refined and defined. In this paper sustainability was defined as: The maintenance of the net benefits agriculture provides to society for present and future generations. This definition is very much a humanist approach, which includes both consumer and producer surplus. The paper identifies the conflict that may occur between consumer surplus, producer surplus and total economic surplus. From a consumer surplus point of view food security, and discounting are major issues. The compensating variation of a famine may be infinite making food security a primary goal of many nations. The maximization of the net returns from agricultural production represents me producer surplus point view. A second, somewhat related concern is the maintenance of minimum level of income in the agricultural sector. Consumer surplus is threatened by food scarcity, and agricultural income is threatened by surpluses. Price is the best measure we have of scarcity. To discuss sufficiency in the absence of price is very misleading. Similarly, describing sustainability in terms of expected output and prices is also misleading. It is unplanned scarcity and abundance that threatens food security and economic viability respectively. It is therefore, the ability of the agricultural system to respond and rule out extreme price that is central to the issue of sustainability. Given the inelastic nature of the demand the ability for sustainable agriculture may largely be a function of the elasticity of supply. The ability of fixed factors such as land to enter and exit a sector may also augment sustainability. A thirdsource, of economic flexibility is alternative technologies that can be applied at very low or high prices. This flexibility has to be valued not at expected prices but rather for the option values at extreme prices. Government has a role in sustainability. Governments should pursue policies which enhance the elasticity of supply. Policies that stabilize income through prices have the opposite effect. These programs should at a minimum be decoupled. Secondly, governments should spend research dollars on technologies that enhance the elasticity of supply. Finally, land set aside programs, add great deal to the elasticity of supply.     

土地流转中农业规模经营组织类型的经济分析——基于农户与规模经营组织双向层面的分析

本文从农户与规模经营组织双向层面分析农业规模经营组织与农户土地流转的供求决策准则,用以解释不同农业规模经营组织存在的原因。研究表明,农户劳动力的机会成本、转出土地的租金决定土地转出;农户劳动力要素的总收益、农村社会的特征决定农户对规模经营组织的有效需求。规模报酬与技术进步所要求的最低规模决定规模经营组织的土地转入需求;规模报酬预期,包括土地租金在内的交易费用小于土地转入的纯收益,以及技术进步的资金充足,决定规模经营组织类型的有效供给。     

Voting for Environmental Policy Under Income and Preference Heterogeneity

We examine the design of policies for promoting the consumption of green products under preference and income heterogeneity using organic food as an example. Two instruments are considered: a price subsidy for organic food products and a tax on conventional products. When the income differences and social benefits of organic farming are large, these factors dominate in shaping the policy preferences of the majority. In this case, the environmental policies preferred by the majority tend to be stricter than socially optimal policies. However, when income differences are small, policy preferences are more directly determined by tastes for organic products and the majority may prefer no intervention.     

Producer Willingness to Pay for Precision Application Technology: Implications for Government and the Technology Industry

This paper focuses on the willingness to pay (WTP) for precision application/site-specific management technologies on the part of agricultural producers. We use a contingent valuation survey to elicit WTP for a package of technologies and examine the impact of government subsidies on potential demand. Results suggest that producer WTP is significantly lower than current technology prices, necessitating a 60% government subsidy to induce adoption, on average. Agronomic factors such as soil characteristic variability and soil quality are important determinants of WTP. In addition, how well the technology integrates into current farming practices and equipment also appears important.     

Price predictors in an extended hedonic regression framework: An application to wholesale cattle markets in Ethiopia

Livestock markets influence income generation for producers, but also accessibility and affordability of highly nutritious animal-sourced foods for consumers. Despite their importance, the functioning of livestock markets in lower-income countries is poorly understood and rarely studied compared to more developed countries. This study analyzes wholesale cattle markets in Ethiopia using a uniquely rich large-scale dataset covering both prices and cattle characteristics in 39 markets (in both highland and lowland areas) over a 10-year period, and hedonic regression models structured to understand both cattle price formation and seasonal and secular price dynamics. We show that cattle prices are influenced by a wide range of factors, including proxies for meat quality, religious fasting practices, climate-based seasonality but also climate shocks and availability of grazing land, competition from animal traction services, and rising consumer incomes. However, the implied effects of these factors are often significantly different in highland mixed crop-livestock areas compared to agro-pastoralist lowland areas, emphasizing the dualistic nature of cattle markets in Ethiopia. The analyses help inform the systemic challenges that Ethiopia will need to overcome to meet rising demand for beef products in the face of sustained income and population growth, as well as the adverse effects of climate change.     

Price and quantity adjustment in a dual character market The case of the Greek poultry sector

In this paper we set up, estimate and test a short-run model for the poultry sector in Greece. The model allows for the simultaneous existence of a monopolistically competitive and a competitive segment, and determines producer and consumer prices, and the quantity consumed. We provide evidence on steady-state parameters such as demand and supply elasticities, as well as on speeds of adjustment of prices and quantities. The evidence suggests that adjustment is very rapid, although quantities appear to be adjusting more quickly than prices. The model is used to examine the dynamics of adjustment to demand and supply-side disturbances.     

Advertising Expenditures and the Consumption of Alcoholic Beverages

The theory of consumer behavior is applied to the estimation of a demand svstem. Monthly data on alcoholic beverages (beer, wine, liquor, soft dhnks) from the province of Ontario in Canada are analyzed. Before estimating the linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LA/AIDS), unit root and cointegration tests are implemented. Budget shares, per capita advertising expenditures, real total expenditure, prices and per capita consumption are found to be non-stationary. The budget share, the advertising expenditures, the prices and the real total expenditure are cointegrated for each beverage. Own and cross-price elasticities, income elasticities and own and cross-advertising elasticities are calculated from the estimated or the demand system. Based on own-price elasticities and income elasticities, alcohol consumption is consistent with the law of demand and the products analyzed are normal goods. The estimation of income and advertising effects is important for analyzing the need for, and the effectiveness of, potential control policies. The advertising elasticities are small but statistically significant. This suggests that advertising may promote alcoholic beverage consumption. The estimated inelastic demands for beer and wine suggest that the primary purpose of high excise taxes levied by the Federal and Provincial governments is to raise government revenues and not to discourage consumption.