我国城镇化进程对石油终端消费的影响

在我国城镇化进程中,人口结构、产业结构和典型行业等因素都提升了石油终端消费强度,而经济发展水平和能源结构则降低了石油终端消费强度。为了提高石油能源的使用效率、降低石油能源的使用量,减少环境污染,我国应在引导人们树立节能环保意识、提倡绿色消费的同时,大力促进节能减排技术的更新和新型技术的推广应用,加快发展城市轨道交通,推进传统能源清洁高效利用,加快新能源开发,激励企业使用清洁能源。     

中国能源消费、能源消费结构与经济增长——基于ARDL模型的实证研究

能源消费、能源消费结构与经济增长间存在着密切的关系。节能减排政策的施行是否会影响到我国的经济增长,能源消费结构与能源消费间有着怎样的联系,这些都是在节能减排政策制定中亟待解决的问题。本文利用1978-2007年的样本数据,使用ARDL模型方法对以上三者之间的关系进行了实证研究。发现经济增长对能源消费和能源结构在长期和短期内都有显著影响,且能源消费和能源消费结构间也存在相互的影响。未发现能源消费和能源消费结构对经济增长的长期影响。推行适宜的节能减排政策不会阻滞我国的经济增长,而节能减排政策的一项重点应该是能源消费结构的优化调整。     

中国节能政策对能源效率提高的影响——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

利用1996~2012年省际面板数据研究了我国节能政策对能源效率提高的影响。研究表明:"十一五"以来,我国所实施的节能政策对全国及各区域能源利用效率的提高有着积极作用;与东部地区相比,政府节能政策对中部和西部地区提高能效的影响效果更为显著。此外,技术进步是中部和西部省份实现节能降耗的有效手段,优化产业结构和产权结构更有利于全国以及东部地区提高能效。因此,未来还应继续加强政府相关政策对能效提高工作的支持力度,同时要根据不同地区的经济发展结构和技术水平特点实施差异化的节能政策。     

我国节能减排的区域差异与应对之策

2011年我国不同区域的节能减排完成情况存在较大差异：在节能目标实现方面东部地区略好于中西部地区,减排目标实现方面除二氧化硫外,东部地区整体好于申西部地区。这与我国不同区域的经济发展阶段、节能减排技术和管理经验、地方政府经济发展理念存在差异,以及东部地区“三高”产业加速向中西部转移等因素密切相关。基于此,本文提出了确定差异化的区域节能减排目标、制定和完善区域间转移支付制度、因地制宜开展节能减排实践、建立区域间节能减排沟通机制等政策建议。     

中国碳减排政策的模拟分析——基于中国能源CGE模型的研究

通过构建中国能源CGE模型,在模型中引入碳税和碳排放变量,细化出能源部门,并将煤炭、石油和天然气三种主要能源作为生产要素,设定节能减排基准情景,针对碳减排、碳税和能源结构调整这三个不同的能源政策对经济发展以及碳排放的冲击效果进行了模拟分析.模拟结果表明,单一的能源政策总有不足之处,要么减排效果欠佳,要么严重制约经济发展,因此国家应该将减排政策系统化,构造一个适应现实需要的低碳经济政策体系.     

中国能源利用的经济效率、环境绩效与节能减排潜力

本文采用全要素方法,将环境污染(二氧化碳排放和二氧化硫排放)作为能源利用经济产出的环境成本纳入研究框架,运用2000～2007年中国省际面板数据,选取基于投入导向的CCR-DEA模型,测算了中国29个省份能源利用的经济效率并度量了其环境绩效,在此基础上计算得到中国各省份的节能减排潜力;分析了中国东、中、西部三大地区之间的效率差异并采用Tobit模型检验了中国节能减排能力的影响因素。得出的主要结论包括(1)当前中国能源利用的经济效率及其环境绩效整体水平都偏低,尚具有很大的提升空间;(2)中国各省份、三大地区的能效及其环境绩效发展都显著不平衡,节能减排潜力巨大;(3)经济发展水平对一个地区的节能减排能力有显著影响,而促进技术进步、优化经济结构和能源结构是当前提升中国节能减排能力的主要途径。     

2021年中国工业节能减排发展趋势

2021年,单位工业增加值能耗和工业污染物排放或将继续保持下降,各项节能减排工作将有序推进.随着"十四五"工业绿色发展任务开启,结构优化仍是节能减排最大动力,绿色制造体系建设进入改革期,绿色关键技术创新有所突破,绿色制造产业逐步发展壮大.但工业能源消费大幅增长的可能性增大、西部地区节能减排形势不容乐观,新阶段下,工业绿...     

经济增长、进出口贸易额、能源消费的动态关系研究——基于碳排放强度分组的省级面板VAR模型的实证分析

基于碳排放强度将2010~2014年的我国省级面板数据分为高碳地区和低碳地区两组,分别采用面板VAR模型,通过运用脉冲响应、方差分解、Granger因果检验比较分析两组面板数据中的"经济增长—进出口贸易额—能源消费"之间的动态关系。实证结果显示:(1)经济增长、进出口贸易额、能源消费之间的关系在不同分组中存在显著差异;(2)两组中进出口贸易额对经济增长存在显著的促进作用;(3)低碳地区的经济增速与能源消费强度存在双向因果关系;(4)高碳地区的贸易额增速与能源消费强度存在双向因果关系。这一结果表明两类地区应当积极发展对外贸易以促进经济增长,低碳地区应当节能减排、发展经济以实现二者之间的良性互动,高碳地区则应注重提高贸易在经济发展中的作用、降低能源消费以实现二者的良性互动。     

基于SPSS的中国能耗分析研究

高能耗是中国面临的严峻问题之一,为更好地推动节能减排,必须了解影响能耗的因素.本文运用SPSS对统计年鉴2015中的能耗数据进行分析,通过方差分析、 共线性分析和显著性分析,建立能耗消费的线性模型,发现人均生活能源消耗量和交通运输仓储和邮政业能源消费量是主要的两项影响指标.     

中国区域能源消费与经济增长关系——基于面板数据的实证分析

目前我国正处于工业化和城镇化快速发展的关键阶段.能源消费以一次性能源为主.在节能降耗的同时能否保持社会经济的稳定增长是摆在我们面前重要课题.本文以北方、南方和西部三大区域为研究对象,将能源消费纳入生产函数,基于1995-2007年省际面板数据,考察区域能源消费与经济增长的关系.研究结果表明,我国西部地区能源消费对经济增长的贡献率最小,北方和南方地区能源消费对经济增长的贡献存在较小的差异.在研究结果基础上,就如何实现经济增长与节能降耗的双赢提出若干政策建议.     

凝聚力的结构、形成和影响——一个研究述评

凝聚力是一个具有本土化意义的概念。本文从凝聚力的定义、结构、测量、与团体绩效的关系等几个方面入手,对国内外凝聚力的相关研究进行了整理和评介。本文的主要观点有:赞同凝聚力是一个独立的概念,并有显著的理论和实践研究价值;凝聚力具有多层次、多维度的结构;凝聚力对团队绩效有显著正向影响,但这种影响受到一些变量的调节。最后,本文对国内凝聚力研究提出了建议。     

The effects of the external debts of Mexico,Brazil, Argentina,Venezuela, and the Philippines on the United States

The external debts of developing countries have become a major issue recently, prompting debate among both academicians and policy markers. In this paper, the author describes the origins and history of debt problem, summarizes proposals for policies for creditor nations, and estimates the effects of debt-related austerity in five major debtor nations on US imports, exports, net exports, and output in 1985. He concludes that debt-related austerity was responsible for 11.0% of the US merchandise trade deficit in that year, caused decreases in US net trade in 40 to 61 non-service industries studied and decreases in output in 46 industries, and caused a decrease of 0.5% in GNP.

Neither a borrower nor a lender be;

For loan oft loses both itself and friend,

And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.

William Shakespeare (Hamlet, I. iii. 75)     

Interest on reserves,settlement, and the effectiveness of monetary policy

Over the last several years, the Federal Reserve has conducted a series of large scale asset purchases. The effectiveness of these purchases is dependent on the monetary transmission mechanism. Former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke argued that large scale asset purchases are effective because they induce portfolio reallocations that ultimately lead to changes in economic activity. Despite these claims, a large fraction of the expansion of the monetary base is held as excess reserves by commercial banks. Concurrent with the large scale asset purchases, the Federal Reserve began paying interest on reserves and enacted changes in its Payment System Risk policy. In this paper, I estimate the effect of the payment of interest on reserves (as well as other payment policy changes) on the demand for daylight overdrafts through Fedwire. Since Fedwire provides overdrafts at a fixed price, any fluctuation in the quantity of overdrafts is a change in demand. A reduction in overdrafts corresponds with an increase in the demand for reserves. I show that the payment of interest on reserves has had a negative and statistically significant effect on daylight overdrafts. Furthermore, I interpret these results in light of recent theoretical work. I argue that by paying an interest rate on excess reserves that is higher than comparable short term rates, the Federal Reserve likely hindered the portfolio reallocation channel outlined by Bernanke. Thus, the payment of interest on reserves increased payment processing efficiency, potentially at the expense of limiting the ability of monetary policy to influence economic activity.     

More on Marriage,Fertility, and the Distribution of Income*

According to Pareto (1896) , the distribution of income depends on “the nature of the people comprising a society, on the organization of the latter, and, also, in part, on chance.” In the model developed here the “nature of the people” is captured by attitudes toward marriage, divorce, fertility, and children. Singles search for mates in a marriage market. Married agents bargain about work, and the quantity and quality of children. They can divorce. Social policies, such as child support requirements, reflect the “organization of the (society).” Finally, “chance” is modeled by randomness in income, marriage opportunities, and marital bliss.     

Fiscal Rules,Interest Payments on Debt,and the Irrelevance of the Taylor Principle

We show that in New Keynesian models with non‐neutral government debt, the Taylor principle ceases to be relevant for equilibrium determinacy if the government follows a fiscal rule of levying taxes in proportion to its interest payments on existing debt. This is in contrast with previous studies, which typically have assumed that taxes respond to the level of debt, and have found either a confirmation or reversal of the Taylor principle depending on the feedback from debt to taxes. We find, instead, that the equilibrium effect of the interest rate on debt is crucial for determinacy. If, as in our model, taxes are raised in response to debt interest payments, the range of indeterminacy monotonically decreases with the fiscal feedback parameter. When interest payments are completely tax‐financed, indeterminacy is ruled out without any restrictions on monetary policy.     

基于三螺旋理论的政产学研合作模式与机制研究

以三螺旋理论为支撑,分析"大学-产业-政府"之间的互动关系,提出政产学研合作模式应重点发展"组建研发实体"等高级模式,适应产业技术重大创新的需求,建立产业技术层面的战略合作,且必须积极争取政府的参与、协同和投入。最后,提出了政产学研合作中的各种机制策略和建议。     

企业的契约性质、所有权理论及公司治理结构述评

公司治理结构是一个企业所有权安排的契约,而企业所有权的制度设置是由企业的本质决定的,对企业本质的不同认识必然导致不同性质的公司治理结构.本文通过文献综述,旨在勾勒出企业的契约性质--企业所有权理论--公司治理结构三者的演进脉络和之间的对应关系,发现企业家人力资本产权与企业所有权之间的复杂联系是未来公司治理问题研究的焦点.     

文化、制度与发展——制度与文化比较视角的发展分析

殖民主义、经济发展模式差异以及制度分析是用来解释拉美与东亚巨大差距的传统因素.但拉美和亚洲在几乎差不多的基础上,采用几乎相同的市场经济发展模式和制度,却出现了截然不同的发展结果,看来单纯的制度分析和经济因素不能合理的解释这个问题.制度和模式的不同选择的确影响经济的效率和发展的水平,而文化的背景则影响人们对制度和模式的选择.亚洲的成功是基于其文化中某些特定的因素,而拉美可能缺少这些因素.     

The economic and trade effects of the UK–Korea free trade agreement on the United Kingdom,Korea, Japan,China, and the European Union

We explored a comparative static computable general equilibrium model with six regions and 12 sectors to estimate the impacts of the recent UK–Korea free trade agreement (FTA) along with the European Union (EU)–Korea FTA. The empirical results provide quantitative evidence of the impact on national GDP, national exports and imports by sector, and the changes in exports or imports among the United Kingdom, Korea, Japan, China, and the EU. The UK–Korea FTA, along with the EU–Korea FTA, increases GDP and welfare for the United Kingdom and Korea; moreover, there is a large increase in automobiles, transport equipment, and machinery exports between Korea and the United Kingdom. The GDP and welfare level of non-member countries such as Japan and China will slightly decline. Exports from the United Kingdom and Korea to non-member countries are also expected to decrease in most manufacturing sectors. The UK–Korea FTA will lead to increases in imports between the United Kingdom and Korea due to mutual trade creation effects and trade diversion effects. However, non-member countries such as Japan's exports are expected to experience a large decline in automobiles to the United Kingdom and in most manufacturing products to Korea due to the negative impact of the UK–Korea FTA.